The 5 Best and 5 Worst Moves of the Derek Falvey Era

[Nick Nelson]

Image courtesy of Jesse Johnson-Imagn Images

In major-league front offices, no moves are made in a vacuum. Many voices are in play and Twins fans are well aware that outside constraints (e.g. payroll limitations) can hold major influence. But ever since he was first hired after the 2016 season, up until his departure on Friday, Derek Falvey was atop the chain of baseball command. Every move made over the past nine years has had his stamp on it.

During that time, we've seen some of the best trades and boldest signings in franchise history. We've also seen a lot of misfires and missed opportunities that played a huge role in the inability of talented teams to get over the hump. 

These are my picks for the five best, and five worst, moves made by the Twins during Falvey's time in charge.

5 Best Twins Moves Under Derek Falvey

The first Carlos Correa signing
It's reasonable to look back at Correa's Twins career with some bitterness, given the shortcomings and early exit. His second contract with Minnesota was at best a mixed bag. But that shouldn't cause us to overlook what a monumental, game-changing moment his first signing was. 

Announced out of nowhere in the middle of the night, Correa's bombshell contract – three years, $105 million with opt-outs – seemed to redefine what was possible for the Twins franchise. They had never waded into these kinds of free agency waters before. This was a statement signing that they (briefly) followed through on the next year, And although the 2022 season proved to be a disappointment overall, Correa produced one of the best seasons for a shortstop in team history, posting 4.6 fWAR and setting the stage for an unlikely return.

The Joe Ryan trade
Now this is how you "sell" at the deadline. When the Twins fell out of contention in 2021, they made hay with their best expiring asset, trading Nelson Cruz to the Rays for two pitching prospects. One of those prospects came to the majors almost immediately, and has been excelling in the Minnesota rotation ever since, to the point where he's now arguably their ace. This was a rare moment where the Twins managed to outfox a Rays front office that they so admired and aspired to emulate. Easily one of the best trades in franchise history.

The Pablo López trade
The López trade doesn't rate quite as highly as Ryan, since the Twins had to give up more substantial value for him, but it looked smart at the time and looks genius in retrospect. Luis Arraez has declined rapidly since the trade while López – whom the Twins quickly extended – instantly solidified his status as a frontline starter, which he has maintained since. He led the way in two playoff victories in 2023 and will likely start on Opening Day for a fourth consecutive season.

The Byron Buxton contract extension
For a long time, it looked like this wasn't going to happen. Unable to find common ground on an extension as free agency approached, the Twins were actively exploring trades for Buxton before finally managing to reach an agreement just ahead of the 2021 lockout. The seven-year, $100 million contract was very favorable to the team, built around incentives due to Buxton's availability concerns. It has already paid for itself based on his performance on the field, despite injuries and missed time. 

Drafting Ryan Jeffers
There are a lot of other candidates I thought about throwing in here: the Escobar-for-Durán trade, the Willi Castro signing, the Royce Lewis selection. Bailey Ober deserves mention as well. But I think it's fair to say Jeffers was the biggest draft success story of the Falvey era – the one position player who has developed into an above-average, multi-year major-league regular. Perhaps that is damning with faint praise, given that Jeffers hasn't been a spectacular player or All-Star, but we've seen how hard it is to develop a good big-league catcher. 

5 Worst Twins Moves Under Derek Falvey

The 2024 trade deadline
As you'll see, most of the low points from Falvey's tenure revolve around the trade deadline. Missed opportunities to supplement good or borderline rosters will haunt memories from this stretch of competitive seasons where the Twins too often fell short of their potential.

The deadline in 2024 was a perfect example. When it arrived the Twins were very much in contention, 11 games above .500 at the end of July. At the deadline, the front office did nothing of consequence; in fact, trading only for Trevor Richards – a replacement-level reliever who'd be released weeks later – was almost worse than nothing. This set the stage for a full-on collapse to ensue, with no added quality depth to help weather the storm.

The 2019 trade deadline
Unlike the 2024 team, the 2019 team didn't need saving. It needed reinforcements. The Bomba Squad was perhaps the best regular-season Twins teams ever, but got swept out of the playoffs. There's no guaranteeing savvier pickups at the trade deadline would've changed that outcome, but Sam Dyson was a disaster and Sergio Romo didn't move the needle enough. If ever there was a time to think big.

The Alex Colomé signing
Rarely has a singular offseason acquisition tanked an entire season like this. Signed as a free agent to handle the closer position in 2021, Colomé repeatedly melted down in key spots while the Twins dug an inescapable early-season hole. It's one of several examples that makes me raise an eyebrow when people intimate that building a bullpen on the fly is easy.

The Ryan Pressly trade
Ope, another deadline trip-up. I view letting Pressly get away as perhaps the single most regrettable move of Falvey's time at the helm. He would've been under control in 2019, when the Twins were scrambling for the likes of Dyson and Romo at the deadline, but instead was flipped in 2018 for Jorge Alcala and Gilberto Celestino. Pressly went on to become Houston's bullpen ace for several years, helping the Astros win a World Series. 

A former Rule 5 pick, Pressly was one of the biggest reliever development success stories for Minnesota in decades, but the front office – intent on "selling high" with extended control remaining – let him get away before his impact could be fully felt. You hope the same doesn't happen with the players lost in this final set of moves...

The 2025 firesale
I know this wasn't all driven by Falvey or the front office. Maybe not even mostly. But still, you have to hold the baseball decision-makers accountable for some truly baffling baseball decisions. 

On their own, many of the trades at least year's deadline made sense, but in totality this scorched-earth sell-off completely obliterated any realistic hopes of contention in 2026, which now looks like a glaring misstep in light of Tom Pohlad's directive to field a competitive squad this year. Had the Twins not sold off four key controllable players, that would have actually been viable.

What are your thoughts? Which highs and lows did I miss from Derek Falvey's nine-year tenure as Minnesota Twins baseball leader? Where are you hoping to see the team improve in his absence? Sound off in the comments.

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[Eris]

Tyler Mahle trade —-very bad

Jorge Lopez trade —horrible, maybe the worst. 

Releasing Brent Rooker ( not a trade but in hindsight huge lost opportunity). Since 2023, Rooker has put up 9.6 fWAR for Oakland. The Twins best player over this period is Byron Buxton who has 9.2 fWAR
 

Missing on many first round picks is why the Twins are in their current predicament  

Sonny Gray trade was a good trade. 
 

 

[Cory Engelhardt]

I can't put the 2025 deadline in the worst decisions pile yet. Too much data to see longer term. The others I agree with. 

Just to have another transaction instead, I think 3 years for the production that Vazquez contributed could be up there. But I imagine there are many others too. 

[Whitey333]

IMO  there were many more negative moves than positive.  While most, including me, were excited about signing Correa it turned out to be a big bust and a big bust.  When the payroll was decent around the 150 million level Falvey did a terrible job of budgeting that payroll in part by giving too much of it to one player.  The Mahle trade was a disaster.  So many to mention. I am glad Falvey is gone but the timing and chaos left behind is typical of the franchise of late.

[TJSweens]

Five worst Falvey moves:

The 2018 draft

The 2019 draft

The 2020 draft

The 2021 draft

The 2022 draft

[mikelink45]

I do not have Correa on either list.  

[arby58]

I would put the Nelson Cruz signing in the 'best' category. Not only was he a very productive offensive player, but he provided the capital necessary to acquire Joe Ryan.

[LastOnePicked]

I still lament that Royce Lewis was popped back into CF immediately after his return from an ACL tear. I don't know if that was Falvey, but I'm guessing it was his decision. Sure, players can get injured anywhere, but dealing with a wall seemed to add a dimension of injury chance.

Correa's second signing also seems like a blunder. Two teams tore up contract offers after reviewing his physicals, and it looks like they may have suspected future foot or leg issues. Correa had a nice 2023 season and excelled in the playoffs, so not a total loss. But beyond that, not much for a lot of money that could have been used in better ways.

And bringing Rocco back for 2025 was a massive blunder. It signaled an era of no accountability and no expectation for success. The team looked deflated from Day One, and though they put together a nice little early win streak, they were a lifeless, rudderless club overall.

Good work, Nick. A balanced look back at the Falvey era. We'll see if Zoll is worth all the hype Pohlad gave him in his Zoom press conference.

[Blyleven2011]

I don't know where to start ...

I don't know where to end  ...

Definitely more bad than good for being the smartest person in the room ...

His deadline trades were the worst at acquiring and the years he lacked on pulling the trigger and should have acquired players for a push to be better in the playoffs  ...

[Major League Ready]

Among the good trades I would put Ryan 1st and Buxton 2nd because those moves had several years of impact.  Ryan is #1 because getting that kind of talent for a rental is a big win.  I would rate the Lopez trade 3rd.  Jeffers 4th.  He helped the team for several years.  However, he has been good not great.  The 1st Correa signing was good but one year is not that impactful.

None of the bad moves were that impactful.  They did not give up any above average players in those trades.  Obviously, Pressly was an impact player but they lost him for a year.  That's just not nearly as impactful as giving up a player with multiple years of control.  IMO, Falvey's trades were not the problem.  We simply did not develop enough talent to compete.

[Road trip]

I know we all love Pablo, and I certainly hope he can stay healthy and anchor the staff, but since the trade for Arraez:

Pablo: 8.1 BWAR
Luis: 6.8 BWAR

It's not the slam dunk thus far that many want to portray.  Luis may have declined, but Pablo has his own injury history.  I think/hope Pablo will probably be the better player moving forward, but their production thus far has been closer than most seem to think.

[bean5302]

#1 - Joe Ryan trade. There's no real room to debate this as far as I'm concerned. 11.3 fWAR so far, and probably + more fWAR lifetime for about 0.5 fWAR Tampa received. It's crazy lopsided.

#2 - Nelson Cruz signing. Cruz delivered huge value for his reserved paycheck leading the only full season Twins team that deserved a playoff appearance during Derek Falvey's tenure in 2019, and his cheap option allowed him to return for the shortened 2020 campaign where the Twins again looked like a contender. Later, he was flipped for the best trade in recent Twins history.

Needed to edit this list.

(edited, new #3) Josh Donaldson & IKF to Yankees for Urshela and Sanchez. As a result of going through the worst moves, the Donaldson trade is clearly moving way, way up. Donaldson wasn't a disaster for the Twins, but it certainly turned into an utter cluster shortly thereafter with the Yankees. Explosvie racial context controversy, terrible play and injury wiping out his career reputation all while eating up $23MM per year. Meanwhile, Urshela proved a valuable piece at 3B for the Twins, and Sanchez averted disaster by filling in for Jeffers at catcher. 

#4 (prev #3) - Jake Odorizzi trade. Acquiring Jake Odorizzi for PTBNL category prospect, Palacios turned into a huge boost for the Twins. Odorizzi was soid enough in 2018, but he put up legitimate front of the rotation arm results in 2019 with 4.5 fWAR (behind only Sonny Gray since Johan Santana) while doing it for dirt cheap.

#5 (prev 4) - Sonny Gray trade. While the Twins gave up Chase Petty, the 2023 team doesn't make the playoffs and certainly wasn't a threat to advance without Gray. The only legitimate Ace pitcher the Twins have seen trot out to the mound since Johan Santana.

#6 (prev 5) - Polanco/Kepler extensions. Just before the 2019 seasons, the Twins got ahead of Kepler and Polanco's future with some aggressively team friendly contracts which included options into free agency years. Both players earned peanuts relative to what they would have made and it provided a stable, cost controlled core for Falvey to try and build around.

[TJSweens]

9 minutes ago, Road trip said:

I know we all love Pablo, and I certainly hope he can stay healthy and anchor the staff, but since the trade for Arraez:

Pablo: 8.1 BWAR
Luis: 6.8 BWAR

It's not the slam dunk thus far that many want to portray.  Luis may have declined, but Pablo has his own injury history.  I think/hope Pablo will probably be the better player moving forward, but their production thus far has been closer than most seem to think.

That might be a compelling argument if I put any stock in the WAR family of stats. I also factor in the importance of a frontline starter. Replace Pablo with Arraez in 23 and the Twins don't make the playoffs, let alone break an 18 game playoff losing streak, let alone win a playoff series.

[Mike h]

If by worst move you mean the one that I would most like to undo, it would be the Taylor Rogers/Brett Rooker trade for  Emilio Pagan and Chris Paddock.  Of course this is hindsight, but even at the time Paddock was only competing for their 5th starting pitcher and Pagan was not popular with their fans.   I say that based on some good riddance comments on their fan page. Halves should have known that neither player would be an upgrade.  Imagine having Rooker in our outfield along side Buxton, and Taylor pitching instead of Pagan.  
On the good side I’d say signing Nelson Cruz was a better move than drafting Ryan Jeffers.  I know Jeffers is very popular among posters here, but count me as one who doesn’t quite see it.  And I’ll let it go at that,

[USAFChief]

Polanco for Desclafani has to be in the worst 5 somewhere. 

Awful trade that instantly made the team worse.

[The Great Hambino]

The 2022 trade deadline that brought us Mahle and Jorge Lopez belongs in the worst-moves discussion

You could argue that no single draft pick belongs in a conversation like this given their inherent low likelihood of meaningful success at the major league level, but if one did, the Keoni Cavaco pick might belong among the worst moves made.  It was a real head scratcher at the time, and guys like Corbin Carroll and Bryson Stott were picked in the immediate aftermath.

On the other hand, the Polanco/Kepler extensions were great examples of smart moves mid-market teams can make to help extend their competitive windows in a relatively cost-controlled manner.  They handicapped their opportunity to capitalize with subsequent awful moves, but they could've really been cooking if they'd had some better success with some of the moves that ended up on the bad part of this list

Speaking of Polanco, the remaining potential of Gabe Gonzalez and and Polanco's rough 2024 knock that trade out of contention for the bad part of this list.  It wasn't good, but there are levels to this suckitude.  It can't compete with those on the list

[Rufus]

What was good about the Correa signing?  The guy pretty much used the Twins for his own good.  He never wanted to be here, but settled on the Twins when no one else wanted him.  He opted out after his first season and only came back after other teams again took a pass on hm for health reasons.  The Twins once again jumped on the ego manics band wagon.  Now they are still paying $10 million a year just to get rid of him.  That was a good signing?  

On the worst list should be the Donaldson fiasco.  What was that about?  It made Sano once again change positions, which he did happily, but it  is not an easy thing to do.  Of course the media and fans were brutal on Sano's abilities there.  That had to have an effect on his overall play.  Donaldson was a clubhouse poison pill.  At least they got the Yankees to eat his contract.

 

[AlLagoon]

I don't know if I'd classify a guy who led the National league in hits last season and still had more walks than strikeouts, like Arraez did, as in steep decline. 

His brand of ball might be out of style, but at 28, he might have a batting title or two left in the tank.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

1 hour ago, Major League Ready said:

Among the good trades I would put Ryan 1st and Buxton 2nd because those moves had several years of impact.  Ryan is #1 because getting that kind of talent for a rental is a big win.  I would rate the Lopez trade 3rd.  Jeffers 4th.  He helped the team for several years.  However, he has been good not great.  The 1st Correa signing was good but one year is not that impactful.

None of the bad moves were that impactful.  They did not give up any above average players in those trades.  Obviously, Pressly was an impact player but they lost him for a year.  That's just not nearly as impactful as giving up a player with multiple years of control.  IMO, Falvey's trades were not the problem.  We simply did not develop enough talent to compete.

Isn’t trading established players for prospects that you haven’t shown the ability to develop impactful?

[Rod Carews Birthday]

I think that this is a pretty reasonable list on both sides of the equation.  The first Correa signing was nice for what he brought to the team, but it was *(or should have been) more important for putting the league on notice that we were serious about building a team and were willing to spend money to do it. That’s not easily measured in player stats.   Unfortunately, ownership got in the way of that developing the way it should and could have.  Signing Nelson Cruz and trading for Odorizzi get honorable mentions here.  

On the negative side of the ledger, it’s actually a great deal harder.  Is it about what they did or what they didn’t do and whether things that seemed OK just didn’t work out?  The trades for Jorge Lopez and Tyler Mahle were solid choices at the time, but neither of those worked out at all, becoming shades of Matt Capps and The Sheriff.  The inability (or lack of desire, or lack of funds) to do anything at some of the trade deadlines were arguably worse in many ways, but going all in at the deadline wasn’t really his style and when he tried to do some of that, it didn’t work out.  It’s easy to Monday morning quarterback decisions about trading or not trading players at peak values, like Julien or Lewis or Larnach.  Or about trading a guy in Rooker (who was out of options and hadn’t done much) who a couple of years later would develop into a force.  Falvey definitely whiffed on a few, but I’m also glad I don’t have that job. 

[bunsen82]

I would argue the Correa signing was the worst thing The Twins and Falvey did.  It put a noose around their neck.  I would argue 1.  It forced us to try to move Lewis around the field rather than leave him at Shortstop that caused 1 major significant injury.   2. The salary is what limited other moves to help the team in 2024 and 2025.  I said resigning him to the longterm contract would be the Twins undoing.  

The Sonny Gray trade is #1 in my book, directly followed by the Pablo Lopez trade as the best trades.  Those were taking current assets and turning them into Pitching where we were extremely weak.   

My biggest concern is always willing to have a good team. We were never willing to go through a rebuild and try to really stock the system and go for it all.  When it actually looks like we have come to our senses,  we reverse course again.  

[Cory Engelhardt]

35 minutes ago, USAFChief said:

Polanco for Desclafani has to be in the worst 5 somewhere. 

Awful trade that instantly made the team worse.

Gabriel Gonzalez may change your mind on this still at some point. And certainly, Polanco's FIRST year in Seattle (before he resigned there) was really bad too.

[bean5302]

5 Worst

#1 - Rogers & Rooker for Paddack and Pagan. Brent Rooker is a multiple time All Star and a highly productive right handed power bat the Twins have desperately been in need of for years. Not only did Falvey choose Kyle Garlick over Rooker, he went so far as to toss Rooker in to get him off the roster. It was a shocking misread of Rooker's talent for an organization.

#2 - Carlos Correa 6yrs $200MM. Ignoring the findings of the Giants and Mets, Falvey pushed ahead to lock up Carlos Correa on a long term contract. It's turned into a disaster in no small part due to foot issues, but team chemistry was also impacted.

#3 - Josh Donaldson. 4yrs $96MM brought former MVP Donaldson to the Twins and signaled to the rest of the league the Twins weren't bottom feeders going forward; however, it was a bad contract. This would clearly have been #1 had Falvey not been able to get out from under the terrible signing in the nick of time, flipping Donaldson, and IKF for Sanchez and Urshela.

#4 - Brian Dozier for peanuts. Dozier was coming off three 5 WAR seasons in the past 4 years, and Falvey needed to move him. As has been the pattern, Falvey overplayed his hand and kept Dozier for his age 31 season, finally trading him for peanuts at the 2018 trade deadline. This has been a pattern for Falvey we've seen over and over again, this was just the most drastic negative impact on the return.

I don't know. There are just so many relatively minor items which kind of fit into that mold of poor decisions. From Andrelton Simmons to a half dozen other deadline moves.

[Danchat]

3 hours ago, Eris said:

Tyler Mahle trade —-very bad

Jorge Lopez trade —horrible, maybe the worst. 

Releasing Brent Rooker ( not a trade but in hindsight huge lost opportunity). Since 2023, Rooker has put up 9.6 fWAR for Oakland. The Twins best player over this period is Byron Buxton who has 9.2 fWAR
 

Missing on many first round picks is why the Twins are in their current predicament  

Sonny Gray trade was a good trade. 
 

 

There's an argument for Lopez to be one of the worst, trading for a reliever who has been leagues worse than Cano so the Orioles improved their bullpen immediately upon making the trade. If Povich were pitching better, it might hold serve as the worst trade.

Hard to say trading Rooker away was a mistake when multiple other teams didn't get anything out of him. The greater issue with the team has been the failures of top prospects in basically every Falvey draft class, but I don't think that fits the qualifications of a single bad move.

[TJSweens]

54 minutes ago, USAFChief said:

Polanco for Desclafani has to be in the worst 5 somewhere. 

Awful trade that instantly made the team worse.

The Twins also got Gabriel Gonzalez and Justin Topa in that deal. That's not even in the running for bottom 5.

[jmlease1]

19 minutes ago, bunsen82 said:

I would argue the Correa signing was the worst thing The Twins and Falvey did.  It put a noose around their neck.  I would argue 1.  It forced us to try to move Lewis around the field rather than leave him at Shortstop that caused 1 major significant injury.   2. The salary is what limited other moves to help the team in 2024 and 2025.  

The Sonny Gray trade is #1 in my book, directly followed by the Pablo Lopez trade as the best trades.  Those were taking current assets and turning them into Pitching where we were extremely weak.   

My biggest concern is always willing to have a good team. We were never willing to go through a rebuild and try to really stock the system and go for it all.  When it actually looks like we have come to our senses,  we reverse course again.  

The problem with the Correa deal wasn't necessarily the deal itself, it's the fact that it was premised on ownership maintaining a level of spending that they very quickly undid. Correa's contract (much like Buxton & Lopez's deals) is fine in the context of a $150+M payroll. At $130M it gets much more difficult, and at $110M it's nigh-impossible. Was the Correa deal the problem or was it the terrible ownership?

I think I would have the Nelson Cruz signing on the list, as well: it worked out great, filled a need wonderfully, and they were even able to parlay him into Joe Ryan in a later deal.

The Mahle deal didn't work out...but the rationale behind it made quite a bit of sense and injuries are injuries. CES has been awful overall, and while Steer has been ok, his tumble down the defensive positions is notable...as has his rapid decline.

The Sonny Gray trade certainly should rank highly, IMHO: they got exactly what they needed, received draft pick compensation when he left, and Petty sure doesn't look ready.

[Brandon]

My favorite trade is a minor one.  Actually there were two of these trades.  The Twins traded with both Anaheim and Seattle and gave them nothing other than the ability to spend more money internationally for a second round draft pick and 5th round pick.  Only the C Banuelos ever played in the majors for Baltimore.  Pearson never .made it far.These trades were made possible because these two teams wanted extra cash to sign Ohtani

Another top 5 move was talking Theilbar out of retirement and giving it another go and he pitched quite a few years as an effective reliever on a minor league contract.

[LewFordLives]

The Correa extension should definitely be among the five worst. Given that so much of his value was tied up in his defense, there had to be concern that he was not going to age well. Him signing that first contract and then exercising the opt out was the best scenario for the Twins. They should have quit while they were ahead.

[bunsen82]

1 hour ago, USAFChief said:

Polanco for Desclafani has to be in the worst 5 somewhere. 

Awful trade that instantly made the team worse.

Polanco - 1.3 WAR  -  he was resigned last year and now a new contract

For Desclafani - 0,   Topa .6 War,   Gonzalez #4-#8 prospect  (fringe top 100 guy), Bowen   24 year old 5 ERA at AA, fastball 94-97, good sweeper (30+ prospect)  

This is probably a top 10 move on Falveys record as of right now.   

[LewFordLives]

Am surprised no one has mentioned the Joey Gallo signing yet. Sometimes you bring in a guy who's been struggling in the hopes he'll turn things around. In Gallo's case, not only had he been struggling for several years, but the Twins gave him ELEVEN MILLION DOLLARS. Let me repeat that...ELEVEN MILLION.  And when it was clear he was toast the Twins kept giving him at bats.