The 5 Best and 5 Worst Moves of the Derek Falvey Era

[old nurse]

Bad decisions by Falvey

1. Trading for players with injury histories

2. The focus on power first hitters, trying to make hitters power hitters that aren’t

3. Trading for a player having a career year

4. Long term contract for Correa. That was putting all of your eggs in one basket that is flimsy 

5. Counting on fans to show up for a team that was winning. 

 

[jmlease1]

2 hours ago, TJSweens said:

Five worst Falvey moves:

The 2018 draft

The 2019 draft

The 2020 draft

The 2021 draft

The 2022 draft

2018 draft had Larnach, Jeffers, and Sands as 3 of their first 4 picks and they developed Funderburk in the late rounds. While not a grand slam, it's hardly a bad draft, especially for a team drafting late in the round.

2019 was a big miss on the first round pick, but Wallner and Steer early, with Varland and Julien late probably make up for it. The fact that they traded Steer, Varland, and Julien is irrelevant to whether the draft was good or not.

2020 this could end up looking like a disaster and might be one of the more fair picks. Sabato is organizational filler, Soularie is gone from the organization, Raya is struggling to make the last step, and Rosario has been exposed to the Rule 5 draft. This draft might end up being a big fat zero unless Raya successfully transitions to the bullpen and COVID or not, it would be a black mark on their draft record.

2021 still undecided, but they did successfully leverage Petty into Sonny Gray, and have had multiple pitchers make MLB (Adams, Festa, Ohl) with guys like MacLeod, Nowlin, and Fedko still in the system. Jury's still out?

2022 way too soon to call this one of the worst moves of the Falvey regime; while Lee has been disappointing, he is already in MLB. Prielipp is looking like he might have been worth the risk, and while Schobel and Lewis look like they may have topped out, there's still plenty of potential in Matthews, Morris, Culpepper, and Jones that it hardly looks like a bust.

If you only evaluate drafts based on whether or not they came up with an all-star...then yeah, it hasn't worked out. But they have drafted guys with enough talent to be MLB players and contributors. Doing a "all their drafts are crap!" and pretending that makes it Falvey's 5 worst moves is...silly. Could they have done better? Sure, but find me a team that couldn't.

Want to say that striking out on Cavaco & Sabato in consecutive drafts? That's a more than fair statement and a reasonable contender. lumping in all their drafts as being the worst moves? Hard to justify.

[old nurse]

Good decisions by Falvey

1. Seems to recognize pitching talent

 

[rdehring]

Two trades stick in my craw, that trade with the Giants for a reliever at the deadline several years ago and the Mahle trade.  Both trades were for pitchers who were injured.  I know there often isn't a lot of time at the deadline to do due diligence.  But the Twins under Falvey didn't get it done in both cases.  Expect one can say the same in the trade that brought Paddack here as he was also coming off an injury, wasn't he?  But that wasn't a deadline deal and they knew, or should have known the status of Paddack's arm.

I would put both Correa signings into the BAD column.  None of us know the discussions Falvey was having with ownership when first signed.  But considering how often we have heard the term 'right sizing the payroll' I am of the opinion that his signing destroyed the Twins relationship with its fanbase.  What I believed happened was that ownership authorized the deal and increased spending for one year with Falvey agreeing to get it back down the following year.  And that's what happened.  The result has been the fanbase bashing the Pohlad's ever since.  Had they never signed Correa and the payroll kept edging up each year I expect the hatred of the Pohlad clan wouldn't be as severe.  Thus, I put the original Correa signing at the head of the BAD column.   

[Brandon]

27 minutes ago, bunsen82 said:

Polanco - 1.3 WAR  -  he was resigned last year and now a new contract

For Desclafani - 0,   Topa .6 War,   Gonzalez #4-#8 prospect  (fringe top 100 guy), Bowen   24 year old 5 ERA at AA, fastball 94-97, good sweeper (30+ prospect)  

This is probably a top 10 move on Falveys record as of right now.   

While not included in the trade but the 5.625 million saved was the exact amount Santana signed for the next day.  So if you don't give the trade credit for Santana you can give it credit for the cash saved.

[Parfigliano]

Worst move...drafting players that do not develop into impact MLB bats.

[Rigby]

Lack of emphasis / success in international market is a top shelf concern of mine.

[JD-TWINS]

5 hours ago, Eris said:

Tyler Mahle trade —-very bad

Jorge Lopez trade —horrible, maybe the worst. 

Releasing Brent Rooker ( not a trade but in hindsight huge lost opportunity). Since 2023, Rooker has put up 9.6 fWAR for Oakland. The Twins best player over this period is Byron Buxton who has 9.2 fWAR
 

Missing on many first round picks is why the Twins are in their current predicament  

Sonny Gray trade was a good trade. 
 

 

YES - can’t only give this a thumbs up ………….  #1 Picks not producing at League Average to 15-20% better than league average is THE problem with the current roster.

Wallner - Lee - Lewis ………. 1/3 of every day line-up.

Larnach isn’t a flashy success story but he’s not a problem. The other 3 guys above have shown flashes of their Talent but they have been a real consistency problem. Martin, an obtained #1 pick, is similar to Larnach.

If Lewis can’t be above average - if Wallner can’t be average - if Lee can’t approach average, team can’t succeed in ‘26. Nobody needs to be an All-star but they can’t be BAD!

……………….

I live in Cincinnati and the Twins sure could use the consistency that Spencer Steer brings (lost in Mahle trade) every day at 2-3 positions.

[JD-TWINS]

5 hours ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

I can't put the 2025 deadline in the worst decisions pile yet. Too much data to see longer term. The others I agree with. 

Just to have another transaction instead, I think 3 years for the production that Vazquez contributed could be up there. But I imagine there are many others too. 

Yep - to me, Vazquez was a great move and he turned out to be a real good guy and solid receiver but the .270 BA prior to the Twins almost seems like it had to be some deep fake on his stats that fooled everyone in the Twin’s FO and Twin’s fandom. Hard to believe the depths his offense fell to over the 3 seasons.

[Brandon]

1 hour ago, old nurse said:

Bad decisions by Falvey

1. Trading for players with injury histories

2. The focus on power first hitters, trying to make hitters power hitters that aren’t

3. Trading for a player having a career year

4. Long term contract for Correa. That was putting all of your eggs in one basket that is flimsy 

5. Counting on fans to show up for a team that was winning. 

 

I double and triple agree with #5

[Eris]

2 hours ago, LewFordLives said:

The Correa extension should definitely be among the five worst. Given that so much of his value was tied up in his defense, there had to be concern that he was not going to age well.

This is very true. Much has been written about the defensive shortcomings of Lee, but for the 2025 season Lee’s defensive run value was equal to Correa’s. 

[TheLeviathan]

I don't know how the Mahle/Lopez deals aren't in the "worst" category.  

I'd feel alot better about this team with Spencer Steer at 1B and Cano in the bullpen.

[arby58]

4 hours ago, USAFChief said:

Polanco for Desclafani has to be in the worst 5 somewhere. 

Awful trade that instantly made the team worse.

Polanco was terrible his first year with Seattle, so he didn't 'instantly make the team worse' unless you were referring to the Mariners.  Yes, he was much better the next year, but by then Twins fans would have rebelled against him. Besides, the trade was Topa and Gonzalez as well. If Gonzalez  turns into a good MLB player, the trade will not look so bad.

[Pat]

For me, it has been the dismal drafting and the the lack of impact players with their #1 pick.  While I understand it is an inexact science, but to end up with so few high level consistent players, so many one dimensional players, and just out and out whiffs is puzzling. 

[Alex Wilde]

8 hours ago, Road trip said:

I know we all love Pablo, and I certainly hope he can stay healthy and anchor the staff, but since the trade for Arraez:

Pablo: 8.1 BWAR
Luis: 6.8 BWAR

It's not the slam dunk thus far that many want to portray.  Luis may have declined, but Pablo has his own injury history.  I think/hope Pablo will probably be the better player moving forward, but their production thus far has been closer than most seem to think.

The difference is one is a frontline starter and the other can barely play in the field.

[Brandon]

Thielbar was a minor league signing that pitched in 238 games with 221.33 innings and he had 268 Ks.  He went 18-9 and saved 4 games with a 3.66 ERA.  Salary for 5 seasons of pitching for the Twins totaled just over 7.5 million.  That seems like a top 5 deal to me.

[TJSweens]

6 hours ago, jmlease1 said:

2018 draft had Larnach, Jeffers, and Sands as 3 of their first 4 picks and they developed Funderburk in the late rounds. While not a grand slam, it's hardly a bad draft, especially for a team drafting late in the round.

2019 was a big miss on the first round pick, but Wallner and Steer early, with Varland and Julien late probably make up for it. The fact that they traded Steer, Varland, and Julien is irrelevant to whether the draft was good or not.

2020 this could end up looking like a disaster and might be one of the more fair picks. Sabato is organizational filler, Soularie is gone from the organization, Raya is struggling to make the last step, and Rosario has been exposed to the Rule 5 draft. This draft might end up being a big fat zero unless Raya successfully transitions to the bullpen and COVID or not, it would be a black mark on their draft record.

2021 still undecided, but they did successfully leverage Petty into Sonny Gray, and have had multiple pitchers make MLB (Adams, Festa, Ohl) with guys like MacLeod, Nowlin, and Fedko still in the system. Jury's still out?

2022 way too soon to call this one of the worst moves of the Falvey regime; while Lee has been disappointing, he is already in MLB. Prielipp is looking like he might have been worth the risk, and while Schobel and Lewis look like they may have topped out, there's still plenty of potential in Matthews, Morris, Culpepper, and Jones that it hardly looks like a bust.

If you only evaluate drafts based on whether or not they came up with an all-star...then yeah, it hasn't worked out. But they have drafted guys with enough talent to be MLB players and contributors. Doing a "all their drafts are crap!" and pretending that makes it Falvey's 5 worst moves is...silly. Could they have done better? Sure, but find me a team that couldn't.

Want to say that striking out on Cavaco & Sabato in consecutive drafts? That's a more than fair statement and a reasonable contender. lumping in all their drafts as being the worst moves? Hard to justify.

Don't sell me Larnach, Jeffers and Cole Sands as examples of our drafts being not that bad. They aren't all going to be All Stars, but how about any All Stars in 9 years? I guess there was Rooker...oh wait. How about a some legit every day players? Falvey was going to create a pitching pipeline like this organization has never seen. His drafts have produced Ober, Jax and Sands in 9 years.

You want to polish the giant turd that is 9 years of Falvey drafts, go ahead. I expect more.

[DocBauer]

I'm already tired of the whole Tom Pohlad vs Falvey conversations. So I'm just not going to go there. And while I've got my own issues with some of the moves Falvey made...or didn't make...I think the organization needed a change in general approach and planning. I think Falvey did a lot of good things early, but fresh ideas and approaches were necessary, not matter how this played out.

I tend to agree with the BAD moves he made. And trading Pressly might have been #1. When that deal was made, I really thought the team had the nucleus to be much better the following year. Turns out I was correct on that point. Imagine having him anchoring that next season's pen and STILL going out and adding Romo.

I just can't bring myself to fully hate the Mahle/Lopez mid season trade as it held so much promise at the time. It didn't turn out well, but I'd bet most thought it looked really good at the time.

I didn't like the Rogers for Paddack/Pagan trade at the time, but it had nothing to do with Rooker, who I might remind bounced around for a couple of years with a couple of teams before finding a home with the A's. 

Did Falvey blow the Polanco deal with Seattle? Polanco had a very poor season with the Mariners in 2024. Can we say it was a bad trade based on the Polanco of 2025? Is that fair? Neither team got anything out of that deal in '24. And if Gonzalez turns out to be a quality bat with power...and younger...do we still lose that trade for a player who isn't even with Seattle any longer?

The trade for Gray was a good one.

The trade for Odorizzi was a good one.

Signing Cruz in the first place was a good move. Also signing Marwin Gonzalez was solid.

Trading for Michael A Taylor was a good move. 

Going back to the begining, signing Jason Castro right off the bat helped solidify the catching position.

I'm sure I'll get a lot of pushback, but I think a majority of the trades/signings Falvey made were either positive, or at least seemed positive at the time. 

My biggest issue was some of the moves that didn't make sense in total roster construction. And I also have issues with a "philosophy" that didn't always make sense, even though I still can't put my finger exactly on WHAT the philosophy was the past few seasons. Why NEVER finding a 1B, SOMEWHERE/SOMEHOW and just dismissing the potential impact of that position? I tend to agree that offense overrides defense in roster construction. But at times it felt like defense became too much of an afterthought.

Without digressing too much, I still would have loved to see what Falvey might have done in 2024 if he hadn't had his legs cut out from beneath him post 2023 success. I didn't like all the moves he made, or didn't make, but even though I was ready for a change, and a change needed to take place for various reasons, I would still say that in the long term, his trades and signings, even with some neutral results, were more positive than negative. I think he won more moves than he lost.

It was roster cuts, and some poor fringe moves, and also a sense of a lack of direction that I object to. Not a top 5 or top 10 W&L equation that I actually think he won.

[jmlease1]

3 hours ago, TJSweens said:

Don't sell me Larnach, Jeffers and Cole Sands as examples of our drafts being not that bad. They aren't all going to be All Stars, but how about any All Stars in 9 years? I guess there was Rooker...oh wait. How about a some legit every day players? Falvey was going to create a pitching pipeline like this organization has never seen. His drafts have produced Ober, Jax and Sands in 9 years.

You want to polish the giant turd that is 9 years of Falvey drafts, go ahead. I expect more.

Wallner and Jeffers are both legit starters. Varland and Sands are quality relievers. Julien finished top 10 in RoY before falling apart. Steer has been starting for the Reds; trading him away is a different issue from the draft.

Apparently you've decided to write off Festa. Matthews, Morris, Adams, Culpepper, Jones, MacLeod, NOwlin and Preilipp for the pitching pipeline? (and a reminder: Falvey never said he was going to only draft his way to a pitching pipeline: Ryan, Abel, SWR, Bradley, and Rojas all count) The Twins pitching depth is far better than it was before Falvey got here. Is just is.

Falvey hasn't developed enough hitters from his drafts and development and it's a fair reason to let him go (if Jenkins and at least 1 of GG, Emma, Mendez, or Culpepper hit then his record starts looking better) but the idea that he hasn't substantially improved the Twins prospects when it comes to pitching just isn't true.

But I get it: you want all-stars. Looking forward to seeing you hold the next front office to precisely the same standard...

[JD-TWINS]

20 hours ago, old nurse said:

Bad decisions by Falvey

1. Trading for players with injury histories

2. The focus on power first hitters, trying to make hitters power hitters that aren’t

3. Trading for a player having a career year

4. Long term contract for Correa. That was putting all of your eggs in one basket that is flimsy 

5. Counting on fans to show up for a team that was winning. 

 

To me, #4 is squarely on the OWNERSHIP. Can’t approve this deal and then sign Lopez to his extension ($56M total) just prior to cutting payroll steadily from $155M in ‘23 to $105M in ‘26. The flimsy basket is squarely on the ownership’s desire to cut payroll in a big way with ZERO prior warning nor plan. Nobody (FO) can navigate through that to build a strong roster.

[old nurse]

1 hour ago, JD-TWINS said:

To me, #4 is squarely on the OWNERSHIP. Can’t approve this deal and then sign Lopez to his extension ($56M total) just prior to cutting payroll steadily from $155M in ‘23 to $105M in ‘26. The flimsy basket is squarely on the ownership’s desire to cut payroll in a big way with ZERO prior warning nor plan. Nobody (FO) can navigate through that to build a strong roster.

Ownership makes decisions on what to do with the information they have presented to them.  Falvey had said budget was based on previous year’s income. When they upped the payroll it was a gamble the team would draw significantly more by winning. They lost the gamble, the budget cut is a repercussion of that. Losing the money from local television contract can be pared on Pohlad’s not understanding the market. Go Radio showed they didn’t understand the market. Clearly the people they hired to project money did not figure the chord cutting and changing markets for television. That is what Ryan described as a system failure. The repercussion was a sharply decreases budget. While streaming hasn’t been a total failure, there was something somewhere that said the money from streaming was a little less than half for mlb in total. If you consider that the Twins are on the low end of revenue per fan, it may be safe to say their revenue is probably significantly less than half of what they were getting from cable. Their cable deal was at the time one of the lowest ones. 

[Cris E]

1 hour ago, old nurse said:

Ownership makes decisions on what to do with the information they have presented to them.  Falvey had said budget was based on previous year’s income. When they upped the payroll it was a gamble the team would draw significantly more by winning. They lost the gamble, the budget cut is a repercussion of that. Losing the money from local television contract can be pared on Pohlad’s not understanding the market. Go Radio showed they didn’t understand the market. Clearly the people they hired to project money did not figure the chord cutting and changing markets for television. That is what Ryan described as a system failure. The repercussion was a sharply decreases budget. While streaming hasn’t been a total failure, there was something somewhere that said the money from streaming was a little less than half for mlb in total. If you consider that the Twins are on the low end of revenue per fan, it may be safe to say their revenue is probably significantly less than half of what they were getting from cable. Their cable deal was at the time one of the lowest ones. 

This was not a Falvey failure. He wasn't doing the business side until well after these decisions were made, he just went with what was promised. If you're going to ding him for this then what was the right move here? He somehow had to know that the budget wasn't sustainable next year and not spend it? He had to only sign one year deals?

He gave a contract with a ton of player opt-outs, without a series of long painful tail end years, with some triggers that would have offered the team outs in the event of serious injury. That was not a bad deal for a potentially injured player on a $150m payroll. 

Ownership takes risks and makes commitments. If they aren't going to stand behind decisions then they hang their people out to take unnecessary abuse. Go ahead and yell at Falvey, but this one says more about you than him.

[old nurse]

1 hour ago, Cris E said:

This was not a Falvey failure. He wasn't doing the business side until well after these decisions were made, he just went with what was promised. If you're going to ding him for this then what was the right move here? He somehow had to know that the budget wasn't sustainable next year and not spend it? He had to only sign one year deals?

He gave a contract with a ton of player opt-outs, without a series of long painful tail end years, with some triggers that would have offered the team outs in the event of serious injury. That was not a bad deal for a potentially injured player on a $150m payroll. 

Ownership takes risks and makes commitments. If they aren't going to stand behind decisions then they hang their people out to take unnecessary abuse. Go ahead and yell at Falvey, but this one says more about you than him.

I didn’t say the numbers were Falvey’s fault, only that he made decisions off them. Those decisions were based of what the Pohlads told him he could do.  They aren’t going to publicize if they make changes. To me, it is why St Peter was moved to an advisory role and Falvey promoted. We shall see what Tom Pohlad does .  

[TJSweens]

13 hours ago, jmlease1 said:

Wallner and Jeffers are both legit starters. Varland and Sands are quality relievers. Julien finished top 10 in RoY before falling apart. Steer has been starting for the Reds; trading him away is a different issue from the draft.

Apparently you've decided to write off Festa. Matthews, Morris, Adams, Culpepper, Jones, MacLeod, NOwlin and Preilipp for the pitching pipeline? (and a reminder: Falvey never said he was going to only draft his way to a pitching pipeline: Ryan, Abel, SWR, Bradley, and Rojas all count) The Twins pitching depth is far better than it was before Falvey got here. Is just is.

Falvey hasn't developed enough hitters from his drafts and development and it's a fair reason to let him go (if Jenkins and at least 1 of GG, Emma, Mendez, or Culpepper hit then his record starts looking better) but the idea that he hasn't substantially improved the Twins prospects when it comes to pitching just isn't true.

But I get it: you want all-stars. Looking forward to seeing you hold the next front office to precisely the same standard...

1. Wallner is a slow footed, weak defensive platoon player who strikes out a lot. Larnach, rinse and repeat. I counted Jeffers as a success.

2. Julien is a terrible defender who hit well enough for a couple of months to justify his existence. Career went over a cliff.

3. Sands had one good year and one bad year. Varland is up and down got pounded with the Jays, Jury out on both.

4. Steer is barely a league average hitter even playing in a band box. Sub par defensively.

5. Pitchers in the pipeline are just that. They’ve proven nothing. I remember back when we were supposed to be giddy about Graterol, Balazovic, Alcala, Enlow, Winder, etc in our pitching pipeline. Same goes for Jenkins and the other position players. We all thought Royce was our next superstar. 

So 9 years of drafts and international signings has yielded a slightly above average catcher, a couple of slow footed platoon players, a mid rotation starter, a high end/high leverage reliever, a couple of questionable mid relievers, a couple of huge question marks (Lewis, Lee), a mediocre second baseman for another team and all star slugger for another team (Rooker).

Ratioalize it all you want. That is not a good track record for 9 years. 

[jmlease1]

1 minute ago, TJSweens said:

1. Wallner is a slow footed, weak defensive platoon player who strikes out a lot. Larnach, rinse and repeat. I counted Jeffers as a success.

I'll admit, I have have trouble taking arguments seriously that casually dismiss a hitter with a career OPS+ of 127.

 

[NYCTK]

34 minutes ago, jmlease1 said:

I'll admit, I have have trouble taking arguments seriously that casually dismiss a hitter with a career OPS+ of 127.

 

Matt Wallner is an interesting player. I am becoming more and more of a "hater". He cleans up in low leverage situations and disappears when it counts. At least thusfar in his career: 

	PA	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	wOBA
Low Leverage	507	0.267	0.367	0.591	0.958	0.403
Med/High Leverage	465	0.191	0.318	0.369	0.687	0.308

[Linus]

Signing Nelson Cruz and then flipping him for Joe Ryan has to be his best move, one of the best in franchise history. The rest of his tenure has been meh or worse. One reason I’m looking forward to Zoll having a shot is I don’t think it will be difficult to match Falveys performance and he may well exceed it. 

[Danchat]

Honorable mention - Lamont Wade Jr for Shaun Anderson, we get a nearly DFA-worthy reliever who only lasted 4 games, meanwhile the Giants got a 4 year starter who provided about 5 WAR. Should have moved a struggling Cave and given Wade a shot.

Speaking of which, the Cave trade was one of Falvey's first, but I will defend that one. I will take a couple years of a quality 4th OF for a 19 year old lottery ticket any day. They just stuck with Cave too long.

[howeda7]

The 2019 trade deadline was the worst and was the moment I was out on Falvey and knew they would never sniff a World Series with him in charge. When you're a GM of a team like the Twins, you have to know when to push all your chips in because it doesn't happen often.

 

The Twins have had two, maybe 3 chances this century. 2006, when Terry Ryan balked, 2004, when Terry Ryan also balked and 2019 when Falvey balked. There are a dozen other bad moves, but that will remain #1. 

[TJSweens]

4 hours ago, jmlease1 said:

I'll admit, I have have trouble taking arguments seriously that casually dismiss a hitter with a career OPS+ of 127.

 

Just like I have trouble taking arguments seriously that look at OPS+ in a vacuum and ignore that he can't hit LHP, is a defensive liability and runs like molasses in January. 

But hey, if you're happy with these drafts, I'm happy for you.