Why Minnesota Twins Should Go All In On Building Their Future Around Walker Jenkins

[Nick Nelson]

Image courtesy of Ed Bailey, Wichita Wind Surge

A changing of the guard is not just underway, but nearing completion for the Minnesota Twins. In the past three years we've seen the makeup and personality of this team overhauled entirely. It's pretty wild to look back, for example, at photos from the event that took place in November of 2022 where the Twins' new branding and uniforms were unveiled.

The players featured during this marketing showcase were, at the time, framed as the present core and future foundation of the franchise: Byron Buxton, Jorge Polanco, Jhoan Duran, Luis Arraez. The latter three have been traded. José Miranda, also presented as part of the team's core identity, has sadly sunken to sub-mediocre depths in Triple-A and will likely be moving on in the offseason. 

I remember the buzz from that event that players among this group were FaceTiming with Carlos Correa, still in the early stages of his free-agency odyssey that ended with a stunning to return to Minnesota. From that point, he became a chief figurehead of the Twins' identity, both internally and externally. The future looked bright, and only brighter one year later when they celebrated their first postseason win in two decades. We all know what happened next.

Of the players who were featured in the rebranding promo materials, only Buxton and Joe Ryan remain — Buxton due sheer loyalty, and Ryan because the front office couldn't find the right deal in deadline trade talks, which they'll almost surely revisit in the offseason. While Buxton is beloved and finally getting more of the recognition he deserves, he's also turning 32 this offseason with about a decade of MLB tenure. For better or worse, he's largely associated with the "old guard."

With their fan base demoralized and starving for hope, the Twins need to prop up a new face of the franchise: a singular player who represents the credible promise of superstardom, capable of leading the next contending core. Some might argue Luke Keaschall can be that player based on the amazing start to his career; with all due respect to his game, I don't think he is quite on that level of talent.

Walker Jenkins, though, looks up to the task. He's not a good prospect. He's not a great prospect. He's a potentially generational prospect. Very few players who've come through the Minnesota Twins system have earned such a billing, and the track record for those that have is pretty good.

When you take everything into account — minor-league numbers, rate of progression, rankings from local and national sources — there's a good case to be made that Jenkins is among the top three Twins prospects of this century, alongside Joe Mauer and Buxton. 

Jenkins, who turns 21 next February, was promoted to Triple-A last week. Aaron Gleeman wrote at The Athletic about the rarity of this achievement; even Buxton and Mauer did not advance to the highest level this quickly. While it guarantees nothing, the distinction of logging significant Triple-A time at age 20 tends to be a very favorable indicator for the future.

"Triple-A action at 20 has basically meant a 50/50 shot of being an All-Star," Gleeman explained. "That includes MVP winners Mike Trout, Freddie Freeman, Ronald Acuña Jr. and Andrew McCutchen, plus Francisco Lindor, Carlos Correa, Xander Bogaerts, Ketel Marte, Adam Jones, Junior Caminero and Riley Greene."

 

Is he the real deal? You never know. But the signs are all there and Jenkins is now tantalizingly close to the big leagues. This feels like the right moment in time for an all-in commitment. For a good approximation of how this might play out in practice, simply look across the border to Milwaukee.

In December of 2023, the Brewers signed a 19-year-old Jackson Chourio — viewed at the time as a consensus top-10 prospect in the game — to an eight-year contract worth $82 million. Not only did this make an emphatic statement about Chourio's place at the heart of Milwaukee's go-forward brand, while offering the potential for big long-term cost savings, but it also negated any service-time implications, and any compulsion to avoid having Chourio on the 2024 Opening Day roster.

 

Chourio was the Brewers' starting right fielder for the season opener. He went on to produce an excellent season, producing 3.9 fWAR in 148 games to finish third in the Rookie of the Year voting while even earning down-ballot MVP votes. This year he's once again been great and the Brewers are once again in first place, viewed by many as the best team in baseball.

I'm not saying it's going to go quite so swimmingly for the Twins. The Brewers were in a much better place to begin with, and in fairness, there are plenty of other examples of long-term deals inked before a major-league debut — Jon Singleton, Evan White, Eloy Jiménez, Scott Kingery — but even in the worst cases the ultimate cost was relatively negligible, and the risk is nominal in the context of say, the $70 million that Minnesota just recouped by dumping Correa.

At this moment in time, I don't think it's appropriate for the Twins to ask their fans to wait and idly hope for better days. They need to take actions and accelerate the arrival of that future. They need to energize their lagging brand. Obviously the timeline must be dictated in part by Jenkins and his readiness — he is off to a slow start in Triple-A (1-for-20), albeit with solid strike zone control — but I don't see much reason to proceed conservatively or dink around with service-time shenanigans. 

Lock up Jenkins this offseason and give him every chance to win a spot on the Opening Day roster next spring. Heck, consider giving him a cameo in the majors at the end of this season. Show fans that the future is now, and give them something to buy into after the front office completely sold out on the previous core.

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[Patzky]

Ty Langenberg looks like he could be the next 2023 pick moving up. Having a very good late summer.

[tarheeltwinsfan]

Good article Nick.  Your argument is sound for signing Jenkins long term now. The Twins need another North Carolina player to enjoy North Carolina pork BBQ, sweet potato casserole, hushpuppies and some spicy collard greens cooked with bits of salty country ham. Fellow North Carolinians, Ryan Jeffers, Bailey Ober and Zebby Mathews are ready for the feast. 

[Dman]

I guess I don't see the rush to get him there and he is going to earn his way there soon enough.  Right now he isn't lighting up AAA pitching and we all know the jump to MLB pitching is enormous. Once he dominates at AAA for a while we can talk about time frames.

I get it though all his counting stats look balanced so he doesn't have many weaknesses as a hitter other than maybe power, but that always comes with age and experience.  Any weaknesses he does have will be exploited at the MLB level for sure.  Breaking stuff is generally a challenge for all hitters and those pitches only get better as you move up. He'll have his struggles just have to see how he handles them. 

He has been incredibly young at every level and due to injury's had limited playing time and still has been a top of his league player so far.  As mentioned he is on a good track to be an elite player.  Still I'd see how 2026 goes at AAA and if he kills it they will have no choice but to bring him up.  If he struggles then it will just take more time.

[mluebker]

Love the enthusiasm and hope you’re right about Jenkins. But the idea of building a team around a kid who’s yet to play a major league game seems a little premature. 

Beyond that, I’m not a fan of building a team around one guy, no matter how good he is.

A (current or eventual) superstar at one position, especially an expensive one soaking up a quarter or more of the available salary money, too often has meant a rotating cast of bargain basement players at other positions. Those teams rarely win championships. 

I’d much rather see solid, everyday players at every position and a rotation filled with guys who can win six out of every ten starts. Oh, and a manager who thinks outside the box once in a while.

[Rod Carews Birthday]

It seems like this is the direction we go over and over.  Twins have a good prospect — People dream on what that prospect could become — Crazy expectations are thrust on the player (that no one could live up to) — Player struggles (even if temporarily) — What’s wrong with said player? — Team/Fans are very disappointed — Rinse and repeat. 

Certainly Jenkins looks like he could be excellent, but let’s give him time to develop and truly be ready for what will hit him in MLB.  Building around one guy is never a good idea, and especially so when he hasn’t proven anything at the MLB level.  

[Dennesey55347]

Below is a list of Twins offensive prospects over the last quarter-century that exceeded expectations, became a stud, or made a lasting impact. The front office and coaching staff get significant credit for properly developing these players:

[tony&rodney]

2 minutes ago, Dennesey55347 said:

Below is a list of Twins offensive prospects over the last quarter-century that exceeded expectations, became a stud, or made a lasting impact. The front office and coaching staff get significant credit for properly developing these players:

Perhaps you forgot about Joe Mauer. 

[Trov]

I am all for offering a contract that locks him up for 7 to 8 years at a locked number.  You have risk of injuries or poor development, but he seems like the type it may be worth it.  You can have him break camp and not play the service time thing, which I know can sour players against teams when they do that. If you do it now, you can save a little. 

However, on the flip side the player may decide to bet on himself long term too and say no. It is hard for a player to turn that kind of money, because you are locked in no matter what.  Sure, you may leave 10 to 20 mil on the table at the back end, but so much can go wrong in 5 to 6 years. 

We all thought Lewis was the truth and was going to be MVP level years going forward.  Hopefully he bounces back, but it is possible he never does.  We say other young guys on other teams take off like a rocket only to have years later regress to average or below average. 

[bunsen82]

44 minutes ago, Dennesey55347 said:

Below is a list of Twins offensive prospects over the last quarter-century that exceeded expectations, became a stud, or made a lasting impact. The front office and coaching staff get significant credit for properly developing these players:

You do know Joe Ryan was #4 prospect when he was traded over.  You also have Duran.  We seem to largely ignore their successes.  

[Nshore]

Miguel Sano was "can't miss" too.  In no way should they get prematurely locked into something long term.

[bunsen82]

I think Walker Jenkins has the potential to be a generational player for the Twins.  I also don't see any reason to push him harder than they have.  Jenkins is seeing the better off speed pitches in AAA.  It took Gonzalez a couple weeks before he started to get comfortable.  This is all part of the plan.  

I am firmly of the opinion in general the only way the Twins will get generational talents is through the draft.  Yes we have found good players through trades (Ryan, Gray) yes we signed 1 (Correa).  In general though no one is willing to trade a top end prospect or let them sign elsewhere, or that the Twins will be willing to spend the money in the future to attain one.  With that being said I think the Twins have been drafting well since 2022, but they really need a few more players in Jenkins realm.  That is why I am ok with them tanking for the remainder of the year.  Currently odds are they end up with a top 5 pick in what should be another very deep top end draft.   

I am optimistic on Walker,  but there are lots of paths that can still be taken.  Underperformance and major injury are still 2 very real possibilities.  I can't wait to see what he looks like next year.  Is there a possibility he starts on MLB.  Possible but not likely.  Most likely to AAA and then hopefully watch him crush it at that level and then we will be in the wait and see mode to see when and if they bring him up.  

[TopGunn#22]

Very interesting article Nick, and worthy of discussion and differing points of view.  With the Pohlad's still in charge of the Twins it's hard to get a handle on what they would be inclined to do.  If it were me, I'd gamble on this kid.  8 years, $80-$90 million, which someone pointed out is just about what they saved in dumping Correa.  So the money should be there.

The counterpoint and it's extremely fair, is that we all were absolutely convinced Royce Lewis was going to be that guy.  And then 2024 and 2025 happened.  Now, the Twins have an interesting dilemma with Lewis.  We all hope he can put together a healthy 2026, hit like our cleanup hitter and knock 30-35 HR's while driving in 100 runs.  The issue then becomes, how signable is Lewis going forward with an agent like Scott Boras??  

Whether it's the Pohlad family or new ownership (rumor has it the team might still be sold) I think making a statement like locking Jenkins up for 8 years is the right move.  Look, if you're going to build a team around a guy, you may as well do it with a kid whose nickname is "CAPTAIN AMERICA."  

[Eris]

1 hour ago, tony&rodney said:

Perhaps you forgot about Joe Mauer.

I would add Justin Morneau to the list. That his career ended early because of a concussion does not take away from the career he was having. 

[SF Twins Fan]

A bit off topic, but does anyone know if the minor leagues are under the same CBA as the MLB?  If the MLB locks out in 2027, will the minors also be locked out? 

I'm wondering because could that effect how some of these prospects are brought up?  Would prospects start to get bunched up at AA and AAA if some of the younger players with options get pushed back down to AAA to keep them ready for when 2027 eventually starts?

[Doctor Gast]

I wouldn't doubt that they'll try to sell this hope. Expectations are high for Jenkins, but is it enough to overcome the negativity that surrounds the team? Is Jenkins the leader who will lead us to a World Series run? Was Mauer, 1st ballot HoF, able to do that for us? Correa was such a player. Not that he had incredible regular-season games, but he had that personality of a leader. Correa led us to our 1st playoff series win in many years. We just needed to build off that core via trade (because Pohlads didn't have the $), but no, instead they kept chipping away at it & failed to shore up fragile areas. As a result, produced toxicity in the team. If Falvey couldn't build off a proven core, how can he rebuild from scratch? This sell-off return left much to be desired. IMO, only the Jax/ Bradley last-minute trade was an acceptable seller's return. No matter how Jenkins turns out, I have no hope that Falvey can make this team into a competitive one.

[Patzky]

43 minutes ago, bunsen82 said:

I think Walker Jenkins has the potential to be a generational player for the Twins.  I also don't see any reason to push him harder than they have.  Jenkins is seeing the better off speed pitches in AAA.  It took Gonzalez a couple weeks before he started to get comfortable.  This is all part of the plan.  

I am firmly of the opinion in general the only way the Twins will get generational talents is through the draft.  Yes we have found good players through trades (Ryan, Gray) yes we signed 1 (Correa).  In general though no one is willing to trade a top end prospect or let them sign elsewhere, or that the Twins will be willing to spend the money in the future to attain one.  With that being said I think the Twins have been drafting well since 2022, but they really need a few more players in Jenkins realm.  That is why I am ok with them tanking for the remainder of the year.  Currently odds are they end up with a top 5 pick in what should be another very deep top end draft.   

I am optimistic on Walker,  but there are lots of paths that can still be taken.  Underperformance and major injury are still 2 very real possibilities.  I can't wait to see what he looks like next year.  Is there a possibility he starts on MLB.  Possible but not likely.  Most likely to AAA and then hopefully watch him crush it at that level and then we will be in the wait and see mode to see when and if they bring him up.  

That potential 'lost season's upcoming in 2027 is kinda a wild card.. I do agree with the Don't Rush Me in principle but if he doesn't get up to the bigs before August of next year he might not get up at all until 2028.

[jmlease1]

49 minutes ago, Nshore said:

Miguel Sano was "can't miss" too.  In no way should they get prematurely locked into something long term.

I get that people hate Sano because he struck out a lot and got hurt, but even with all of that, the Twins paid Sano just under $35M over 8 seasons, and he was worth roughly $65M during that period, so it's not like that deal really hurt the Twins. And Jenkins has a much higher ceiling than Sano, who was considered can't miss as a hitter (and a career OPS+ of 115 supports the conclusion that he didn't miss) but always had questions about a defensive position. (which of course was hurt by the idiotic decision by prior management to have him play RF in 2016 because we just HAD to get more 3B time for Plouffe and Nunez and DH time for Park, an actual bust)

I'm fine with going all-in on Walker Jenkins who isn't just a projectable player, he's put up minor league results. Get him the extension like MKE did for Chourio (people around here keep demanding we do things more like MKE, here a real place to start!) and get him in the OF for 2026. 

[Brandon]

I hope he gets offered a 8 or 9 year deal and takes it.  It would be nice to see the Twins go for some stability.  The Twins have the makings for a good team next year if they get one decent 1B, a bench player or two that can hit 100-110+ OPS and a couple of bullpen arms.  

[TheLeviathan]

I'm all on board, great article Nick.  Give him the extension and start putting down a roadmap for how to build a team around him. 

It wouldn't shock me if that was the impetus for drafting the most major league ready, glove first SS in this most recent draft.  They're looking at him being the lockdown defender on the team they hope Jenkins is leading.  Whatever pick we end up with this year, I wouldn't be shocked if it was a Langford type who basically comes straight to the majors.  

I think it's also worth pointing out that locking him up prior to what is likely a nasty CBA battle is prudent as well.

[chpettit19]

Do I expect the Twins to sign Walker Jenkins to an extension at this point in time? No. Do I wish they would? Yes. 

I understand it's a risk and he may not work out. But it's also a risk if he does work out and you didn't sign him to an extension because then you're losing him in 5 years. You need stars to win. You need to take a risk and hope he's your star. And if he is you need him locked up for as long as possible. Signing him to an extension before he debuts is the best chance to do that. Whether or not you can get that deal done is the bigger question.

[Vanimal46]

Aaron Gleeman in the latest free podcast discussed the elite crowd that Walker Jenkins is now in. He also wrote about it. 

He’s one of very few to hit .900 or better OPS at every stop. Simply making it to AAA at 20 years old is a good sign that he’s a star in the making. 

I agree we should try locking him in for 8-9 years and have him on the opening day roster in 2026. 

[Mike Sixel]

I could see doing this. There aren't a lot of ways for teams that choose to be low spenders to win ... This is one. 

Could it fail? Sure. But holy cow, fans are oddly conservative.

[TNtwins85]

3 hours ago, mluebker said:

Love the enthusiasm and hope you’re right about Jenkins. But the idea of building a team around a kid who’s yet to play a major league game seems a little premature. 

Beyond that, I’m not a fan of building a team around one guy, no matter how good he is.

A (current or eventual) superstar at one position, especially an expensive one soaking up a quarter or more of the available salary money, too often has meant a rotating cast of bargain basement players at other positions. Those teams rarely win championships. 

I’d much rather see solid, everyday players at every position and a rotation filled with guys who can win six out of every ten starts. Oh, and a manager who thinks outside the box once in a while.

Very much agree. The Correa experiment showed us( even though we should have known based on how other teams have faired with long term contracts to players in their 30’s) that the Twins need to pick the lane that Nick spells out here. When you’re a mid to below average market team and a guy like this comes along lock him up! If you can get Jenkins to sign a say 7-8 year deal in the $70-90M range you do that. Players in their 20’s are gonna deliver value way beyond what an aging player will no matter the downside. He’s gonna hit. Don’t worry about the first week in AAA. He’s done this at every level so far and once he figures out the level it’s consistent 300/400/400 every time. I give it 50/50 odds he makes the team out of ST. Not because I want it as a fan but my eye test tells me he figures it out and fast.

[twinfan]

If Jenkins is so good, why isn't he here? Other teams have top prospects playing up here. Some are doing well and some are struggling. I would wait to see how well he does when up here to see if the potential is really there. Royce Lewis was thought of as the next super star and, while he may be very good or better down the road, he hasn't quite shown that yet. 

[Mike Sixel]

3 minutes ago, twinfan said:

If Jenkins is so good, why isn't he here? Other teams have top prospects playing up here. Some are doing well and some are struggling. I would wait to see how well he does when up here to see if the potential is really there. Royce Lewis was thought of as the next super star and, while he may be very good or better down the road, he hasn't quite shown that yet. 

He was in AA a couple weeks ago. Which HS players from his draft are up? He's twenty.

[jmlease1]

4 minutes ago, twinfan said:

If Jenkins is so good, why isn't he here? Other teams have top prospects playing up here. Some are doing well and some are struggling. I would wait to see how well he does when up here to see if the potential is really there. Royce Lewis was thought of as the next super star and, while he may be very good or better down the road, he hasn't quite shown that yet. 

Because he missed a chunk of the season at age 20 in AA? Because there's no real reason to skip him past AAA in an utterly lost season?

And as good as Royce looked, he wasn't putting up these numbers at age 20. Or get promoted as fast. Royce didn't first reach AA until he was 20 with a late season promotion. Royce then hit a mess with a lost pandemic season and serious injuries. While Jenkins has had some injuries, none of them have been serious (a tweaked hamstring and a dinged ankle aren't terribly worrisome)

[twinstalker]

Nick, serious (non-biting) question.  How do you write an article like this ignoring that Boras is his agent?

Falvey jumped in bed with Boras from the beginning, though I'll admit taking anyone but Jenkins would have been stupid.  However, he didn't have to take Lewis or sign Correa.  Lewis was ranked around 5th consensus-wise, and the Twins took him 1st.  That is, they didn't have to take him -- very arguably at the time shouldn't have.  Maybe not so much recently, but people and the writers here constantly mentioned Lewis as an extension candidate when there's zero chance.  Zero chance because Boras.

Boras has an understanding with each of his star players/prospects that he will do whatever he has to to get the player the best contract possible, and the player agrees with this when he signs on, or, frankly, he wouldn't sign on with Boras.

Could a Boras client sign an extension to give up his first years of free agency?  Sure, but that player is going to be a Yankee, Met, or Dodger, as those extension years are going to be at outlandish prices the Twins or most any team could never afford.  More dollars than a projected free agent contract would get him those years, probably.  Boras doesn't deal with expected values, he deals only in ceilings.

Jenkins needs more minor league seasoning.  His power isn't yet developed, he hasn't succeeded at AAA.  If the Twins want him for seven years, they will have to wait to call him up.  Next year, winning-wise, is lost anyway.  Why would you want Jenkins under team control for only five years after a lost season?

[chpettit19]

10 minutes ago, twinfan said:

If Jenkins is so good, why isn't he here? Other teams have top prospects playing up here. Some are doing well and some are struggling. I would wait to see how well he does when up here to see if the potential is really there. Royce Lewis was thought of as the next super star and, while he may be very good or better down the road, he hasn't quite shown that yet. 

Then he's going to cost more. That's the risk. Once he establishes that he's a star he's priced out of the Twins payroll and he's gone in either 5 years when they trade him or 6 when he walks for a comp pick. (Under current CBA rules, which may change drastically in 2 years)

If you're good with that, cool. But waiting until you see how he does means waiting until he and his agent have more leverage. And his agent is really, really good without much leverage so once he has it the Twins are likely out of the Walker Jenkins business. They probably can't get him to sign an extension now because of how good his agent is at his job, but waiting until Walker is lighting up the majors is essentially closing the door on Walker Jenkins being the future face of the Twins because he's leaving in free agency or trade at that point.

[Major League Ready]

A Chourio type deal with Jenkins is the type of risk the Twins need to take.  It would not be devastating if he turns out to be an average player but locking him down for 8 years sounds good.  However, it should be pointed out that if they bring him up after the 1st month of the season they still have for 6 more years so they only gain 1 year.  Maybe they go for a nine-year deal