Why Adley Rutschman Should Be Minnesota Twins' Top Trade Target This Offseason

[Adam Friedman]

Image courtesy of © Eric Hartline-Imagn Images

After the 2025 trade deadline sell-off, the Twins appear to have waved the white flag on this season. But with the group they have, they still should try to compete next year. To make clear their intentions to compete for the 2026 playoffs, they should target Adley Rutschman, of the Baltimore Orioles.

In the flurry of deadline moves, they added organizational catching depth in top-100 prospect Eduardo Tait and Enrique Jimenez. Still, questions remain at the position for the next couple of years, with Christian Vázquez's contract expiring this offseason and just one year of team control remaining for Ryan Jeffers. 

If things go perfectly for Tait, he could be in the bigs in 2027, but 2028 is a more likely (even then, optimistic) target for the 18-year-old slugging backstop. That doesn't line up well with Jeffers' timeline, but it's perfect for Rutschman, who has two more years of control after this season. 

Why Rutschman May be Available
The 2019 first overall pick was a sensation when he came up for the Orioles in 2022. He put together a 4.9-WAR season, according to Baseball Reference, in just 113 games, and the Orioles started winning when he was called up. He continued to rake and defend, and the Orioles continued to win in 2023, making the playoffs for the first time since 2016. 

Since 2023, however, things have gotten worse for Rutschman and the Orioles. In 2024, he dropped off offensively, from very good to slightly above average, and his defensive metrics also took a dip. Baltimore got swept for the second year in a row in the Wild Card round, and everything got even worse in 2025.

The 27-year-old has been belowaverage offensively, and the Orioles fell out of playoff contention almost immediately. He has also dealt with injuries this season, after being an iron man early in his career, and is now on the injured list with an oblique injury.

With Rutschman's injuries in the background, Baltimore extended their up-and-coming catcher, Samuel Basallo, through 2033. Given Rutschman's going to get more expensive next season and is nearing free agency, they may move him now to get good value.

A Fit in Minnesota
While Rutschman has been on a downward trajectory, he's still just 27 and may have elite upside—as shown in 2022 and 2023. We've seen him be one of the better players in the league, and one that elevates a whole organization, which is exactly what the Twins need right now. He would be an upgrade defensively over Jeffers. According to Baseball Prospectus, Rutschman has been 4.3 runs better than an average catcher (between framing, blocking and throwing) this year, and he’s never been below average. Jeffers is at -2.6 runs this year, and hasn’t been above average since 2022. Rutschman also has that extra year of control left.

Jeffers seems likely to be traded this offseason, given that he brings value offensively as a catcher and is a free agent after the 2026 season. He has shown significant defensive deficiencies both in framing and controlling the running game.

Rutschman and Jeffers will be similarly expensive next season, but the Orioles' catcher is clearly the better overall player. If he can regain his previous offensive form and upgrade the Twins' catching defense, he would be an extremely valuable addition for both 2026 and 2027. When you're trying to compete but not all-in, the kind of talent he carries is a great profile to help the team overperform and get back to the playoffs. Also, with minimal expectations, it's a great time for the team to take on a player whose stock is down.

With a fanbase that is completely disengaged from the organization, the Twins' brass could renew excitement (and hemorrhage fewer season ticket holders than we expect)by bringing in a big name like Rutschman. Adding a player like that would signify that, while they've shaken things up quite a bit and need to restock the bullpen, they're serious about giving 2026 a go, with their young core.

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Putting aside your minimal expectations of this organization, should the Twins trade for Rutschman?

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[LA Vikes Fan]

All sounds good on paper., What would be the price of trading for a guy like Rutschman? Assuming we want to trade from surplus, what younger starting pitching would work? Would SWR plus a AA guy like CJ Culpepper be enough (or too much)? Festa or Abel on his own? 

How about either Festa on his own for Rutschman or Abel plus CJ (not Kaelon) Culpeper. What do you think?

[Linus]

Hell no. Keep Jeffers and the prospect capital - the Orioles would want a haul for him. Plus the Twins are not likely to be good next year and 2027 is in danger so what’s the point?

[IndianaTwin]

The Orioles plan to keep Basallo at catcher, but not as their primary one. They've communicated pretty loudly that they plan to split time between the two, with Basallo (and Rutschman, if he returns to form) getting additional at bats at 1B and DH. From what I've read, I wouldn't be surprised they're thinking 90/70 or 100/60 in favor of Rutschman behind the plate.  

[h2oface]

You think the Twins actually give a ****? And would actually trade for a player that can help the team NOW? 

[jorgenswest]

The Twins have the prospect capital to win a trade for a bat. Some good bats are moved every winter. The Twins should in on those conversations.

As for what the Twins think, I have no idea. There are plenty of threads for that conversation. My thoughts are that the Twins need a good bat, Rutschman would help and they should be willing to deal from their prospect pool to win a trade for bat.

[DJL44]

Ober for Rutschman?

[Rod Carews Birthday]

Would we be dealing for damaged goods?  The career arc looks pretty scary from where I sit, and the Orioles would likely want a haul for him (for what he used to be). 

[The Great Hambino]

"Given Rutschman's going to get more expensive next season"

I think that takes him off the board for the Twins.  I think they're more likely to shed salary in trade next offseason than add.

And even if they are trying to be competitive next year and are willing to add salary, they're not adding that much.  Assuming everyone important is retained - including Jeffers -  then those limited dollars are much better spent places like 1B and the bullpen than a position they already have covered, at least from a starting standpoint.

The only way dealing Jeffers and acquiring Rutschmann makes sense would be if Rutschmann were cheaper than Jeffers.  Projecting arbitration is sorta murky, but Rutschmann made $1MM more than Jeffers this year.

I'd pass on Adley

[old nurse]

The haul might be 5 A, A+, and AA players. They might not be players high on anyone’s list of prospects.  

[DocBauer]

Rutschman's career OPS is only 19 points higher than Jeffers. And Jeffers has outperformed him the past 2 seasons ad Rutschman has been on a downturn during that time.

CS% for Jeffers is 19.7% and Rutschman sits at 22%.

Rutschman would cost more $ than Jeffers and would cost prospect capital besides to acquire. I see bigger needs at 1B, maybe DH, and a pen to rebuild. I don't see a swap of catchers being a difference maker.

So no.

[terrydactyls]

how about a swap of catchers Adley Rauschman for Mickey Gasper.  The Twins could throw in Julien and Wallner as additional incentive.

[Bodie]

11 hours ago, LA VIkes Fan said:

All sounds good on paper., What would be the price of trading for a guy like Rutschman? Assuming we want to trade from surplus, what younger starting pitching would work? Would SWR plus a AA guy like CJ Culpepper be enough (or too much)? Festa or Abel on his own? 

How about either Festa on his own for Rutschman or Abel plus CJ (not Kaelon) Culpeper. What do you think?

0% chance of succeeding. 

Somebody (quite a few somebodys!) will offer actual parts for a contender.   A failed (at least so far) starter and a prospect might be enough with Lopez or Ryan.

Ain't nobody giving a all-star caliber catcher for peanuts - short or long-term. 

[Doctor Gast]

By all means, the Twins should go all in on Rutschman. He's an elite catcher that was overloaded his early years & now is paying for it. This an excellent buy low candidate. Boras isn't his agent so this could be a good time to lock him up. If I were BAL, I wouldn't be selling low, especially since Basallo is very questionable behind the plate. I doubt Falvey will put together a reasonable offer. So I quit dreaming. But good article.

[Major League Ready]

They just traded away Duran, Jax, Varland, Stewart, and Correa.  In doing so, they punted 2026 and probably 2027.  Of course, 2027 is also very likely a short season.  Then, there is the fact they have a catcher that has been better for the last two years.  I sure hope they won't be giving up significant prospect capital for Rushman or any other player who will be a free agent in 2028.

Sign a decent free agent back-up for 2026 and push making decisions on this position until the end of next season when the future will be in better focus, including the likelihood of a 2027 season.  Maybe it makes sense to extend Jeffers at that point and a back-up is generally available in free agency.  Giving up significant future assets for a player under control for 2026-2027 is the last thing they should do.

If they had not traded away the players mentioned above, and we were a player away, this is not a game changer given we have a catcher that has been better for the last two years.  I guess we are going to have a number of articles about making 2026 better from the opening bell.  2026 should be about where we are at the end of the year, not the start.  

 

[chpettit19]

As the article mostly points out, Rutschman is more name than production at this point. I'm a 2 year sample size guy. You can have a down year and I'm not so worried. But you back it up with another one and I believe teams have to treat it more as who you are. Adley absolutely may snap back and be an all star type again, but the Orioles are likely going to be asking for a package in return reflective of his all star upside and it doesn't make any sense at all (not even a little tiny bit) for a team in the Twins position to pay that kind of a price to hope he completely changes course and gets back to being that.

Adley has 1 more year of control than Jeffers. It's not like he has 5 more years left or something. He isn't controlled long enough to be a realistic part of the Twins next competitive window. Shoot, many of us are talking about trading Pablo, Ryan, and Ober because they're only controlled for 2 more years and will be into their 30s at that point. 

Basallo isn't blocked by Rutschman. Basallo and Rutschman will DH and play some first to get their bats in the lineup, if they're worth it. If Rutschman continues to get worse with the bat he won't be a concern at all when it comes to finding him extra PAs.

Rutschman should not be the Twins top trade target. He doesn't fit their timeline, nor what I think the safe money is on for their spending/payroll. Giving up future assets for a win now piece doesn't at all fit where the Twins are in the team building cycle. Not even a little bit. Well, I suppose I should say it doesn't fit where the Twins should be in the team building cycle if they're doing what they should be doing. No telling what they'll actually do. I'm still not convinced they aren't trying to win now and in the future so who knows, maybe they should trade for Adley Rutschman.

[tony&rodney]

22 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

Well, I suppose I should say it doesn't fit where the Twins should be in the team building cycle if they're doing what they should be doing. No telling what they'll actually do. I'm still not convinced they aren't trying to win now and in the future so who knows, maybe they should trade for Adley Rutschman.

This was excellent and best explains The Plan; who can know.

Seems like the Twins could have bundled some of the relievers they traded for one of Harry Ford or Jeferson Quero. If you pile up enough solid resources (Varland, Jax, Coulombe, etc) there should have been a chance. 

If anyone out there has any idea what the Twins are doing in regards to building a team it would be instructive to read the explanation.

[farmerguychris]

Sounds great - will he be playing for us for free?

[AlGoreRythm]

9 hours ago, terrydactyls said:

how about a swap of catchers Adley Rauschman for Mickey Gasper.  The Twins could throw in Julien and Wallner as additional incentive.

Trading the team's second best hitter would be the height of foolishness, not that what you suggested was serious in any way lol

[gman]

Since ownership hasn't filled in management on the direction they are taking the team, its hard for anyone to know which way to go. A catcher, yes they need a catcher as long as they are a baseball team. They may just bring up someone from double A if Jeffers get injured next year. 2027 will have to take care of itself.

[MGX]

If Baltimore is seeking a return that corresponds with his '22-'23 production then No thanks. If they're valuation is close to his '24-'25 then maybe depending on the direction of the team.

As it stands now the Twins need to search for diamonds in the rough more than big name players. Speaking of the Orioles I believe they just DFA'd Roansy Contreras who is still an interesting pitcher & only 25. 

The bottom line is until there is a plan in place that says we're competing in '26 trading for players like Rutschman seems unrealistic.

[TopGunn#22]

Adam's article has led to some interesting conversation.  I think any specific, single trade is hard to quantify, especially if you're looking at it from the context that the Twins should certainly be looking to make a series of deals this winter where one of Ryan, Lopez or Ober is dealt to add some hitting to the lineup.  There are plenty of other players who I'd consider trading if the return was right.  Wallner, Larnach, Julien, Miranda, even Jeffers if the return was what Doc Gast proposed with a 3 team deal on BBTV.

Notice that Rutschman's trade value is only 15.0.  It's been pointed out that his offense has trended down the last 2 seasons.  I agree, that is concerning.  But he could easily bounce back with an All Star season.  That his defense is FAR superior to Jeffers, even if it's slipped the last couple seasons is a significant plus for acquiring him.

Baltimore:  Joe Ryan 68.2  30 yrs old  Luis Robert -.10  Aaron Civale 1.4  Total:  69.8 Trade Value.

CWS:   Enrique Bradford 9.1   21 yrs old CF  Esteban Mejia  11.3 19 y/o  SP  Total:  20.4 Trade Value.

Twins:  Adley Rutschman  15.0  27 y/o   Coby Mayo  15.8  1B/3B  22 y/o.  Edgar Quero 18.8  21 y/o C.  Cade Povich  18.6  24 y/o LH SP.  Total:  68.2 Trade Value.

In this trade, the Twins give up Joe Ryan (68.2) and get back FOUR players.  A vet Catcher who's 27 y/o and has been an All Star.  A 21 y/o Catcher who looks like a potential future All Star.  A corner IF with RH Power who is 22 y/o and a 24 y/o LH SP who the organization is very familiar with. 

The The White Sox do it because they get a speedy CF to replace Robert and a 17 y/o SP with the kind of potential we assign to Charlie Soto and they get to unload Robert.  Baltimore does it for Ryan.  The Twins do it because Ryan will be 30 next season and they probably don't want to have to pay him a ton for his age 34, 35, and 36 year seasons.  The Twins solve their Catcher dilemma for 2026 and STILL have Tait waiting in the wings.  Plus, they add an improving LH SP to their rotation to replace Ryan and get a 22 year old corner IF with RH power.  Colby Mayo could solve the 1B problem. 

If the Twins are going to trade Ryan they need to get young bats that can step right into their lineup and it certainly doesn't hurt to add a LH SP 6 years younger than Ryan to the rotation.  The package Doc Gast gets back is the exact 68.2 trade value Joe Ryan has.     

Maybe Rutschman is a has-been.  But to me, he's entering his "magical" age 27 season.  Baltimore has Basallo and a desperate need for an Ace.  They wouldn't hesitate to make this trade.  The key to this trade for me is adding Edgar Quero from the White Sox.  The Twins could hit the jackpot with Rutschman...or not.  But I think Quero is a future All Star.  

[LambchoP]

If the Twins are likely to trade Jeffers because of his salary, why would they go and acquire Adley when he's a bit MORE expensive? I expect the Twins to bring in a couple minor league signing catchers and pick the one who looks the best defensively as our back up. They'll hope Jeffers has a good first half so that we can trade him at the deadline and get something for him. By that time one of our AA or AAA catchers should be ready to get called up. Gonna be a long season either way.....

[Doctor Gast]

27 minutes ago, TopGunn#22 said:

Adam's article has led to some interesting conversation.  I think any specific, single trade is hard to quantify, especially if you're looking at it from the context that the Twins should certainly be looking to make a series of deals this winter where one of Ryan, Lopez or Ober is dealt to add some hitting to the lineup.  There are plenty of other players who I'd consider trading if the return was right.  Wallner, Larnach, Julien, Miranda, even Jeffers if the return was what Doc Gast proposed with a 3 team deal on BBTV.

Notice that Rutschman's trade value is only 15.0.  It's been pointed out that his offense has trended down the last 2 seasons.  I agree, that is concerning.  But he could easily bounce back with an All Star season.  That his defense is FAR superior to Jeffers, even if it's slipped the last couple seasons is a significant plus for acquiring him.

Baltimore:  Joe Ryan 68.2  30 yrs old  Luis Robert -.10  Aaron Civale 1.4  Total:  69.8 Trade Value.

CWS:   Enrique Bradford 9.1   21 yrs old CF  Esteban Mejia  11.3 19 y/o  SP  Total:  20.4 Trade Value.

Twins:  Adley Rutschman  15.0  27 y/o   Coby Mayo  15.8  1B/3B  22 y/o.  Edgar Quero 18.8  21 y/o C.  Cade Povich  18.6  24 y/o LH SP.  Total:  68.2 Trade Value.

In this trade, the Twins give up Joe Ryan (68.2) and get back FOUR players.  A vet Catcher who's 27 y/o and has been an All Star.  A 21 y/o Catcher who looks like a potential future All Star.  A corner IF with RH Power who is 22 y/o and a 24 y/o LH SP who the organization is very familiar with. 

The The White Sox do it because they get a speedy CF to replace Robert and a 17 y/o SP with the kind of potential we assign to Charlie Soto and they get to unload Robert.  Baltimore does it for Ryan.  The Twins do it because Ryan will be 30 next season and they probably don't want to have to pay him a ton for his age 34, 35, and 36 year seasons.  The Twins solve their Catcher dilemma for 2026 and STILL have Tait waiting in the wings.  Plus, they add an improving LH SP to their rotation to replace Ryan and get a 22 year old corner IF with RH power.  Colby Mayo could solve the 1B problem. 

If the Twins are going to trade Ryan they need to get young bats that can step right into their lineup and it certainly doesn't hurt to add a LH SP 6 years younger than Ryan to the rotation.  The package Doc Gast gets back is the exact 68.2 trade value Joe Ryan has.     

Maybe Rutschman is a has-been.  But to me, he's entering his "magical" age 27 season.  Baltimore has Basallo and a desperate need for an Ace.  They wouldn't hesitate to make this trade.  The key to this trade for me is adding Edgar Quero from the White Sox.  The Twins could hit the jackpot with Rutschman...or not.  But I think Quero is a future All Star.  

Thanks, TopGun, I'm glad you appreciated it. If we're going to trade Ryan, I want to make sure we get young players who can make an impact now & be part of the core in the future (not a bunch of prospects we throw against the wall to see who sticks). IMO, Rutschman, when given time to heal & have a more reasonable workload; will bonce back & be that elite catcher, I expect him to be. 

IMO, BAL isn't motivated to trade Rutschman, but if we dangle Ryan, they may bite. Again, I don't want to trade Ryan just to trade him like they did this deadline with our players.

[Doctor Gast]

16 minutes ago, LambchoP said:

If the Twins are likely to trade Jeffers because of his salary, why would they go and acquire Adley when he's a bit MORE expensive? I expect the Twins to bring in a couple minor league signing catchers and pick the one who looks the best defensively as our back up. They'll hope Jeffers has a good first half so that we can trade him at the deadline and get something for him. By that time one of our AA or AAA catchers should be ready to get called up. Gonna be a long season either way.....

IMO, Twins aren't trading Jeffers because of his present salary but because of his future extension salary. So instead of letting him walk for nothing in FA next season, they trade him for something this season. Rutschman has an extra year on his contract.

Catchers need a lot of time to get familiar with the pitchers, so teams don't like to trade for a new catcher at the deadline. If they are desperate, they'll usually go with bargain basement.

[DJL44]

On 8/27/2025 at 8:29 PM, DJL44 said:

Ober for Rutschman?

Ober and Larnach for Rutschman and Mountcastle?

[Trov]

I do not see Baltimore trading him at the low end of his value. If Baltimore is doing a sell off maybe they would just try to get something, but as pointed out if he can regain is prior offense he is extremely valuable. We trade for him hoping that, and Baltimore would sell him hoping he does, or expecting he would not. 

[Riverbrian]

I've said this a lot and I will say it again. 

Catchers are consistent overpays. 

122 Players have over 400 AB's so far in 2025. Only 7 catchers of them are catchers. Catchers sit frequently and they cost as much as SS, 1B, 2B, 3B OF players that don't sit frequently and typically have much larger offensive numbers. 

Rutschman will probably be around 10 million in ARB 2. Maybe as high as 20 million in Arb 3. And the price you pay in players for:

Two years of Rutschman

30 Million in payroll

60% playing time

Would probably be equal to the price you pay for: 

4 Years of Westburg (For Example only).

95% playing time. 

The Twins really need to sleep in the Catchers bed that they made and not over pay to correct their mistake. 

If they have players that will secure a Rutschman in a deal... They should take those same players and get someone else for that package... someone that plays any other position and not in a position of scarcity. 

I am 100% against trading large amounts for a catcher. I am 80% against trading small amounts for a catcher.

The Twins should be developing their catchers and trading them to take advantage of the market demand.  

 

[TNtwins85]

So the Twins would trade prospects for a slightly better and more expensive version of Jeffers? I’m all for Rutschman and looked into this before the deadline but I don’t see it happening. Keep the prospects. I’d love to see the two of them split time like Jeffers and Vazquez with the other as a DH or 1B. But it’s just as easy for the Twins to sign a cheap glove first catcher. Also, I would think Baltimore wants to do just that same thing with him and Basallo. My dream and REALISTIC spitball trade scenario that address’ both teams needs is-Joe Ryan, SWR for Rutschman, Mayo and Bradfield. Baltimore needs pitching. The Twins need hitting. Baltimore gets a frontline starter and a back of the rotation piece. Twins get a catcher to PAIR with Jeffers. A former stud prospect struggling but with immense power and talent to play 1B in Mayo and a TRUE backup CF/ 4th outfielder in Bradfield who is close. I believe it’s a believable scenario and it helps both teams now.

[Schmoeman5]

On 8/28/2025 at 6:03 AM, Doctor Gast said:

By all means, the Twins should go all in on Rutschman. He's an elite catcher that was overloaded his early years & now is paying for it. This an excellent buy low candidate. Boras isn't his agent so this could be a good time to lock him up. If I were BAL, I wouldn't be selling low, especially since Basallo is very questionable behind the plate. I doubt Falvey will put together a reasonable offer. So I quit dreaming. But good article.

Total fabrication again. How was Rutschman overloaded? As compared to who? Jeffers and Vasquez? How many games has he avg at catcher?

 

On 8/28/2025 at 9:07 AM, AlGoreRythm said:

Trading the team's second best hitter would be the height of foolishness, not that what you suggested was serious in any way lol

Who's the Twins 2nd best hitter? Gaspar or Julien?