Adam Friedman

Image courtesy of © Nathan Ray Seebeck-Imagn Images After a 92-loss season, a trade deadline fire sale, and a lackluster offseason, Twins fans are overwhelmingly pessimistic about 2026. Still, there’s talent on the roster, with emerging players and potential breakout candidates. The Twins also remain in a poor division—one they could win if enough goes right, giving hope for an entertaining and potentially competitive season ahead. Star Players Returning With the trade deadline selloff, the Twins lost their top bullpen talent. Yet, star players remain in the rotation and lineup. The longest-tenured Twin, Byron Buxton, is coming off his healthiest season in nearly a decade, while remaining productive. Buxton delivered 5.0 FanGraphs WAR in 2025, combining 35 home runs and 24 steals (without being caught) with cromulent center-field defense. At 32, he still has fuel left, and fans should enjoy a future Twins Hall of Famer. After waiting for a healthy season, seeing another would make the 2026 team highly watchable. Joe Ryan has been at the center of trade rumors since the 2025 trade deadline, but he is still in Minnesota. He’s coming off his most successful season and could be moved at the 2026 deadline, but fans should appreciate him for now. Ryan might not have finished last year the way he hoped, but he still racked up 171 innings, 194 strikeouts, and a 3.42 ERA. He has established himself as a true frontline starter, giving the team a chance every fifth day. He's also aesthetically pleasing to watch, not only for his fluid movements and occasional bursts of emotion, but for the fact that he pounds the strike zone and doesn't get himself into trouble by walking people. Even if things go wrong elsewhere, as long as Ryan stays healthy, Twins fans will have a frontline starter to watch every fifth day. Emerging New Core While the current core (not Buxton or Ryan, perhaps, but Matt Wallner, Royce Lewis and company) has disappointed many fans, a new offensive group is ready to step up. They’ll begin 2026 in St. Paul, but are nearly ready to debut. The core is headlined by Emmanuel Rodriguez, Walker Jenkins, and Kaelen Culpepper, with Gabriel Gonzalez staking an increasingly strong claim as the fourth piece in the puzzle. This group offers both upside and varying profiles, which will be on display at both CHS Field and Target Field throughout the 2026 season. Jenkins projects as the highest-upside player, combining excellent bat-to-ball skills with notable gap-to-gap power, speed, and reliable defense. Rodriguez carries exceptional power and a disciplined approach at the plate, complemented by strong defense and speed. Gonzalez, in contrast, is a free swinger who generates line drives across the field from the right side. Culpepper brings strong contact ability and the skills to stay at shortstop, making him a potential regular at a premium position. This group will be imperative to the organization’s success in 2026, 2027, and beyond, making their development a key storyline this season. 2025 Trade Deadline Paying Quick Dividends As painful as the 2025 trade deadline was, the Twins got solid returns on most of the deals. The players Minnesota received range in how close they are to being ready for the big leagues, but many players will make an impact in 2026. Taj Bradley and Mick Abel will certainly impact the 2026 Twins after coming over from Tampa Bay (for Griffin Jax) and Philadelphia (for Jhoan Duran), respectively. Both will be in the rotation, after Abel beat Zebby Matthews for the last spot with a fantastic spring. Should those two pitch well, it will be a good start to the deadline sell-off paying off, setting the organization up well in the long run. Besides those two starters, the outfield should see James Outman and Alan Roden this year. There’s also a chance Kendry Rojas or Hendry Mendez will debut. By season’s end, last year's trade deadline could be seen as a positive turning point for fans, with Abel and Bradley headlining a new wave of talent. The Left Side of the Infield: Two Last Chances Recent years haven’t gone well for Royce Lewis and Brooks Lee. They’re nearing the end of their runway to stay in the Twins' long-term plans. Otherwise, the team will consider internal or external alternatives. After Lewis’s ascension in 2023 and a good start to 2024, he was very poor at the plate during the 2024 collapse and throughout 2025. He did, however, improve to average or better at third base. For him to be a productive player, he needs to turn it around offensively. Maybe, with new hitting coaches and some new voices in the clubhouse (and his back against the wall), he can get going once again. Lee has not come anywhere near the heights that Lewis hit at his peak. In 2025, he got on base at a putrid .285 rate and lacked the slug to offset that deficiency. Defensively, he graded out poorly at second, third, and short. The key for Lee will be whether he can improve on either or both sides of the ball enough to be a competent starting shortstop. He showed he’s motivated by overhauling his body in the winter. With Culpepper approaching and Marek Houston emerging for 2027, Lewis and Lee must perform to remain in consideration. Even though expectations are rightfully low for this team, there’s a world where enough clicks for them to remain competitive, and even win the poor AL Central. Even if they can’t compete, though, there are plenty of fun things to look forward to with this team. View full article

Image courtesy of William Parmeter As their 2024 first-round pick, Kaelen Culpepper, broke out in 2025, the Twins continued their draft strategy of many years. The Twins selected a fairly similar prospect in the 2025 first round. They selected Marek Houston, a shortstop out of Wake Forest. Like Culpepper, Houston was selected as a high-floor, right-handed-hitting college prospect who brings a hit over power approach at the plate. Despite those similarities, evaluators don’t expect Houston to have the same success at the plate as Culpepper. On the other hand, he’s a sure-fire shortstop who has a slick glove that’s good enough for the majors right now. The question with him is whether he can find a way to produce offensively. What’s to Like The glove is the headliner with Houston. He’s athletic and has a plus arm, profiling as a very good defender at shortstop. In his short time in pro ball in 2026, he’s already put plenty of highlights on his reel. He’s firmly established himself as the best defensive shortstop in the Twins system. If he can hit at any reasonable level, he could be a key feature in the Twins' plans. While his bat remains a question, Houston has some qualities to build on. In college, he showed the ability to draw walks at an extremely high rate (15.4% in his last year at Wake Forest) and limit his strikeout rate (15.4% as well). He also added power to his game, popping 15 home runs, to produce a 135 wRC+, setting himself up well for the draft. That power came with Houston gaining 20 pounds, but based on exit velocities, he still has weight to be gained and power to be added. In just 12 games at Low-A Fort Myers, he produced, batting .370 with a 150 wRC+.He isn’t going to hit .370. but that is just a display of what to look for with Houston - a high batting average and on-base percentage to pair with great defense. What's Not To Like As discussed, there aren't many questions about Houston’s defense. The question is whether or not the bat can be good enough to get his glove into the lineup. Over just 24 total games, split evenly between Fort Myers and Cedar Rapids, he put up just a .680 OPS - leaving plenty of room for improvement. Two issues in the offensive profile in that small sample size were that he didn’t walk like he did in the minors and struck out at just an above-average level. To make his offense work, the young shortstop needs to find the approach he had in college. That means controlling the strike zone while limiting strikeouts. Improving the approach will help Houston, but he also needs to do more damage when he makes contact. Of his 27 hits, only six were extra for extra bases, and only one of those was a home run. That is backed up by the batted ball data from single-A. Despite hitting .370 at the level, Houston had a horrendous .259 xwOBA, posted a 90th percentile exit velocity of just 96.2 MPH, and pulled the ball in the air at a 12th percentile rate. These are the warts on the offensive side for Houston that he’ll need to clean up to ascend in his first full year at pro ball. What to Look for in 2026 Houston should get a good run at High-A Cedar Rapids in 2026, where he can show off his defensive chops but also have a chance to show improvement on the offensive side. That would look like getting his approach back to where it was in college, which means striking out and walking at similar rates. That would indicate he might be able to get on base at a rate that, paired with his defense, makes him a valuable big-league contributor. For a true breakout that indicates a chance at stardom, the Wake Forest product needs to bring his exit velocities closer to average or above average and find more opportunities to lift the ball to the pull side. If he does this, he’ll start to appear on national Top 100 lists, and Twins fans will start getting very excited about a potential two-way star. Houston’s defense gives him a great chance to make the big leagues at some point, but the offense has plenty of questions. Do you expect to see strides in Houston's power in 2026? View full article

Image courtesy of © Jerome Miron-Imagn Images After his breakout 2025 season, Kody Clemens appears to be the Twins’ presumptive starting first baseman in 2026. While there's good reason to believe he can continue to produce, the team would be better off if he were pushed into a utility role. Clemens had a lackluster career before the Phillies traded him to the Twins for cash in April. He had a high strikeout rate and a low walk rate, without the requisite power to make up for them. To make matters worse, he was 29 years old, so there wasn't much reason to expect a turnaround. Yet, the son of one of the game's greatest pitchers became a bright spot in an ugly season for Minnesota. Why Clemens Can Continue to Rake Clemens improved his walk rate a bit, but the main change that drove his improvement was a 2-mph increase in bat speed, which took him from below-average to average. Swinging harder led to upticks in his Barrel rate, hard-hit rate, and other batted-ball quality metrics. These metrics show that his production was not a fluke, and there's a chance he can replicate it. Notably, his .331 xwOBA was above-average, outpacing his actual results, suggesting some positive regression to come. It's easy to understand why Clemens is a big part of the Twins' vision for 2026. Beyond the offense, he was also an excellent defender at first base—and has been throughout his career, making it even more sensible for him to take over the position. In the best-case scenario for the team, though, he would occupy a smaller role. Red Flags in the Second Half While Clemens had the best year of his career in 2025, there were some negatives in it. For one, while the metrics suggest his performance is sustainable, he dropped off in the second half. It's possible that the chaotic trade deadline impacted him. He was atrocious in August, right after the deadline, indicating that that theory may have some merit. Beyond the raw numbers falling, he also saw his hard-hit rate dip in the second half, which is a real cause for concern. In addition to his poor second half, Clemens is also a player with as steep a dropoff against same-sided pitching as you'll see. Put simply, he cannot hit lefties at all. This limitation will force Derek Shelton to pinch-hit for him early in games, leading to whoever his platoon partner is at first being burned early and having to face a nasty righty later in the game. Given his second-half struggles and inability to hit left-handed pitchers, planning on Clemens at first base should not be the plan. The Right Role for Clemens As you'd imagine, a 29-year-old journeyman whom the Twins got in exchange for cash has limitations. But that doesn't mean he can't be a helpful player as they try to improve on their mess of a 2025. Clemens can hit righties for power, and his batted-ball data indicates that will continue. He can also defend at an average or better level at first, in the corner outfield spots, and at second base. The Twins should put him in a position to succeed by making the necessary roster moves to have him serve as a utility man. That means adding a first baseman, whether through free agency or trade. Doing so will allow Clemens to thrive and take pressure off him to keep hitting in 2026. The new first baseman would slot into the middle of the lineup, and Clemens could move to the bottom third. Beyond that, should Clemens continue to hit, he can slot in at second or left field, should Alan Roden or Luke Keaschall struggle. As we've seen with Willi Castro, a utility man who can hit is very valuable for a team. Their presence maximizes everybody else’s impact. That's the role that Clemens should be in, rather than being one of the league's worst-hitting first basemen. Would you like to see Kody Clemens as a first baseman, utility man, or something else for Minnesota in 2026? View full article

Image courtesy of © Eric Hartline-Imagn Images After the 2025 trade deadline sell-off, the Twins appear to have waved the white flag on this season. But with the group they have, they still should try to compete next year. To make clear their intentions to compete for the 2026 playoffs, they should target Adley Rutschman, of the Baltimore Orioles. In the flurry of deadline moves, they added organizational catching depth in top-100 prospect Eduardo Tait and Enrique Jimenez. Still, questions remain at the position for the next couple of years, with Christian Vázquez's contract expiring this offseason and just one year of team control remaining for Ryan Jeffers. If things go perfectly for Tait, he could be in the bigs in 2027, but 2028 is a more likely (even then, optimistic) target for the 18-year-old slugging backstop. That doesn't line up well with Jeffers' timeline, but it's perfect for Rutschman, who has two more years of control after this season. Why Rutschman May be Available The 2019 first overall pick was a sensation when he came up for the Orioles in 2022. He put together a 4.9-WAR season, according to Baseball Reference, in just 113 games, and the Orioles started winning when he was called up. He continued to rake and defend, and the Orioles continued to win in 2023, making the playoffs for the first time since 2016. Since 2023, however, things have gotten worse for Rutschman and the Orioles. In 2024, he dropped off offensively, from very good to slightly above average, and his defensive metrics also took a dip. Baltimore got swept for the second year in a row in the Wild Card round, and everything got even worse in 2025. The 27-year-old has been belowaverage offensively, and the Orioles fell out of playoff contention almost immediately. He has also dealt with injuries this season, after being an iron man early in his career, and is now on the injured list with an oblique injury. With Rutschman's injuries in the background, Baltimore extended their up-and-coming catcher, Samuel Basallo, through 2033. Given Rutschman's going to get more expensive next season and is nearing free agency, they may move him now to get good value. A Fit in Minnesota While Rutschman has been on a downward trajectory, he's still just 27 and may have elite upside—as shown in 2022 and 2023. We've seen him be one of the better players in the league, and one that elevates a whole organization, which is exactly what the Twins need right now. He would be an upgrade defensively over Jeffers. According to Baseball Prospectus, Rutschman has been 4.3 runs better than an average catcher (between framing, blocking and throwing) this year, and he’s never been below average. Jeffers is at -2.6 runs this year, and hasn’t been above average since 2022. Rutschman also has that extra year of control left. Jeffers seems likely to be traded this offseason, given that he brings value offensively as a catcher and is a free agent after the 2026 season. He has shown significant defensive deficiencies both in framing and controlling the running game. Rutschman and Jeffers will be similarly expensive next season, but the Orioles' catcher is clearly the better overall player. If he can regain his previous offensive form and upgrade the Twins' catching defense, he would be an extremely valuable addition for both 2026 and 2027. When you're trying to compete but not all-in, the kind of talent he carries is a great profile to help the team overperform and get back to the playoffs. Also, with minimal expectations, it's a great time for the team to take on a player whose stock is down. With a fanbase that is completely disengaged from the organization, the Twins' brass could renew excitement (and hemorrhage fewer season ticket holders than we expect)by bringing in a big name like Rutschman. Adding a player like that would signify that, while they've shaken things up quite a bit and need to restock the bullpen, they're serious about giving 2026 a go, with their young core. Putting aside your minimal expectations of this organization, should the Twins trade for Rutschman? View full article

Image courtesy of © Matt Blewett-Imagn Images As the Twins approach the trade deadline staring down the possibility of making just one playoff appearance in five seasons, it's time to consider shaking up the core that has underwhelmed. Larnach is one of the core players who makes the most sense to move. With him plateauing as a good but flawed regular and Matt Wallner, Emmanuel Rodriguez, Walker Jenkins, and Luke Keaschall (who can play outfield) all in their plans for the foreseeable future, now is the moment to trade away the burly lefty. It's been a tumultuous career for the Twins' 2018 first-round pick. Larnach has battled through injuries and made significant adjustments to a league that stopped throwing him almost any fastballs. He seems to have settled in as a solid hitter against righties, with little defensive value, and not as much power as the team would've wanted. He leaned further into that medium-power profile, significantly flattening his swing in the offseason, seeking more line drives. Given his value at the plate and two and a half years of team control, the Twins still should be able to get some value in a trade from a contender. His increasing salary via arbitration could be additional motivation for the front office to shop him. There have been some similar players moved in the past couple of trade deadlines, but of course, there is no exact match for Larnach. We'll try to figure out the value based on those trades. A few teams may target Larnach as just the left-handed slugger they need for their playoff push, too. Those are teams struggling against righties and/or lacking production from left field or at designated hitter. There could also be people in those front offices who may see untapped potential in the 28-year-old. They may think there's more power, given his solid but formerly high-end max exit velocities. Benchmark Trades Using past trades to assess potential future trades is tricky, because every player and contract situation is unique. Larnach, as a trade candidate, is especially unusual, because established big-leaguers with two and a half years of team control aren't often traded. There are, however, a couple of helpful comparisons. Jake Burger to the Rangers After another lackluster season for Miami, the Fish decided to move Jake Burger ahead of the 2025 season, while he was still under team control for four years. Texas got a bat with limited defensive value and no baserunning acumen. Also similar to Larnach, he was a former first-round pick and top-100 prospect. The Marlins sought to replace Burger with prospects who held more upside down the line, despite the extreme uncertainty surrounding each player in the return. Miami received three young prospects in the deal, none of whom are close to contributing to the big-league club, but each had a very high ceiling. Echedvry Vargas was ranked 17th in MLB.com's Rangers rankings, Max Acosta was a bit lower on the list but formerly a highly-regarded toolsy prospect, and Bryan Mendoza seemed to be on the rise, dominating Single-A hitters to a 2.18 ERA in 2024, before a promotion to High-A. This trade shows the perils of doing a deal like this. On its face, Miami got a few prospects who could impact the organization and be stars if they hit the jackpot. But just half a season later, Vargas is getting dominated in High-A, Acosta is stalling out in Triple-A, and Mendoza has completely lost the strike zone, with 29 walks in 50.2 innings. If the Twins go for a group of extremely young prospects, the odds are that they'll come up empty and ship out a contributor for nothing. Lane Thomas to the Guardians The return Washington got for Lane Thomas at the last trade deadline, when they sent him to Cleveland, is playing out much better than the Burger deal. Thomas had less remaining team control than Larnach at the time of the deal, but was also a slightly better player than Larnach. The most exciting piece headed to Washington was Alex Clemney, a big 20-year-old lefty. At the time of the trade, he was 19 at Single-A with a 4.67 ERA, but he was striking out 12.6 batters per nine innings. This performance was accompanied by a high walk rate, which he still maintains at High-A. However, he has brought his ERA down to 3.07 as a very young player for his level. He also appeared at the Futures Game in 2025, so he may be on track to make this trade hurt for the Guardians. With Clemney, Cleveland gave up José Tena, a switch-hitting infielder who was blocked by their solid depth. He slotted in as the Nationals' primary third baseman in early 2025 and has been an average at the plate but carried putrid defense, so he's back in Triple-A, where maybe he can improve as a hitter and learn to play first base. Washington also received Rafael Ramirez Jr., who is still 19 and on a sound track so far, after receiving a substantial signing bonus of $800,000 as an international free agent. Washington pulled off a much better deal than Miami, and something comparable could be possible with Larnach for the Twins. If they have a chance to add a Tena-type Triple-A player and upside with youngsters like Clemney and Ramirez Jr., they should pull the trigger. Potential Suitors If Larnach is on the move in the coming week, Minnesota will likely send him to a contending team that is struggling to get production from left field and DH. A few National League contenders fit the bill. Los Angeles Dodgers A team we'd think has no flaws, the Dodgers have received poor production from left field, collectively putting up -0.1 fWAR from the position. They may get sick of throwing the floundering Michael Conforto out there against righties, so Larnach could solve that issue and slot in for them for the next few years. Undoubtedly, they'll have no issues with paying his salary. The Dodgers, of course, are the best organization in baseball and have some intriguing prospects who could be available in this deal. Derek Falvey and Jeremy Zoll would be wise to target Jackson Ferris. He has struggled to throw strikes this season, but is a nasty lefty with a similar profile to Clemney. The Dodgers received Ferris for Michael Busch, who is similar in many ways to Larnach, so this may be a match. Larnach and Ferris could also be a part of a larger deal involving Jhoan Duran or Griffin Jax, should the Dodges win those bidding wars. Beyond Ferris, the Twins could try to revitalize James Outman, who has been horrendous since his breakout 2023 season. With his all-around skillset, he'd be worth trying to fix as an add-in. San Diego Padres The Padres have struggled against left-handed pitchers and have gotten nothing from left field, which is currently being manned by Gavin Sheets. Larnach could be a massive boost for them down the stretch to address these needs. A.J. Preller has gone all in at recent deadlines, leaving their system a bit light. Therefore, setting his sights a bit lower on a functional player (but not a superstar) could be wise. The Friars are also looking to move Dylan Cease, given their financial challenges, and the Twins could try to get involved as a third team in such a deal. Cease would go elsewhere, but Larnach would land with San Diego and Minnesota could snare another team's prospect in the spin of the wheel. Of what's left in their system, most of their best prospects are either too talented for Larnach's value or very young. Right-handed reliever Bradgley Rodriguez, is one appealing name. The flamethrower has appeared in the majors this season, but is now back at Triple-A. He throws hard, gets strikeouts, and limits walks. At a deadline where the Twins may be dealing Duran or Jax, Rodriguez could be a wise target to fill in at the back end of the bullpen in 2026 and beyond. Henry Baez and Braden Nett in Double-A may be more exciting for the Twins. Both are hard throwers, thriving at the level at 22 and 23, respectively. Baez has much better control, while Nett has a superior prospect pedigree. While this is not the best farm system in baseball, Preller always seems to replenish it with more talent. It could be a good deal for everybody if the Twins get one or two of these pitching prospects, plus a teenage lottery ticket-type prospect. Cincinnati Reds A team that we know is familiar to the Twins, Cincinnati has a problem in left field because Spencer Steer is stalling out, and Will Benson is struggling. The Twins could pick up the phone with this familiar trading partner and make something happen, providing the help that Emilio Pagán is asking for. Reds fans desperately wanted Josh Naylor, who was traded from Arizona to Seattle, so Larnach could be a nice plan B. As a team (like the Twins) who relies on their farm system to make up their big-league roster, Cincinnati doesn't have much sitting in Triple-A that matches Larnach's value. Héctor Rodríguez, a 21-year-old left-handed hitting corner outfielder, is an interesting potential target. His reputation is that of a free swinger, but this season, he has increased his walk rate despite moving up to Double-A, and he has seemingly developed more home run power. While a Trevor Larnach-level career may be an excellent outcome for him, his bat-to-ball skills and potentially newfound power, along with the potential for solid defense, show some upside. Adding him for Larnach would get another player for a new core and some upside. Zach Maxwell is a behemoth of a right-handed pitcher, standing at 6'6" and throwing in the upper 90s. He's struggled at Triple-A and has not been able to find the necessary control to succeed. At that height, he may fit into the Twins' mold and be a pitcher they could target, as well. A fun but different potential target is Christian Encarnacion-Strand. The former Twins prospect has been horrible with the big-league club, but perhaps the Twins still see something in him, even after trading him. Fixing him could allow them to address their perennial right-handed hitting masher and first-baseman needs. Larnach can help some contending teams out there, and it seems likely the Twins could get some value for him and potentially some real upside. Is he a good piece to move to start transitioning the Twins' core towards a younger group? View full article

Walker JenkinsLuke KeaschallEmmanuel RodriguezKaelen CulpepperCharlee SotoDasan HillConnor PrielippBrandon WinokurKyle DeBargeAndrew MorrisBilly AmickCJ CulpepperEduardo BeltreMarco RayaDanny De AndradeGabriel GonzalezCory LewisCarson McCuskerRicardo OlivarPayton Eeles

Walker JenkinsLuke KeaschallEmmanuel RodriguezKaelen CulpepperCharlee SotoDasan HillConnor PrielippBrandon WinokurKyle DeBargeAndrew MorrisBilly AmickCJ CulpepperEduardo BeltreMarco RayaDanny De AndradeGabriel GonzalezCory LewisCarson McCuskerRicardo OlivarPayton Eeles

He checks all the boxes, but was the front office reading the right checklist? Image courtesy of © Jeff Curry-Imagn Images On Wednesday, the Twins reportedly addressed their most glaring need by signing Harrison Bader to a one-year contract for a bit over $6 million. He provides terrific outfield defense and a platoon bat to face left-handed pitchers. With Austin Martin and Michael Helman as the only internal options for that role, this move makes sense. That's the simplest test of any move, and this one passes with flying colors. Apply a more stringent standard, though, and cracks appear. What Bader Provides As Twins Daily has covered, Bader's principal skill is his defense in center field. Should Byron Buxton need a day off or get hurt and be out for a month, Bader provides excellent backup. When he plays in an outfield corner, his glove should be downright elite. The veteran may also provide some skill on the basepaths. However, his baserunning metrics were average (or worse) for the first time in his career in 2024, likely heavily impacted by his poor 68% success rate on stolen bases, in 25 attempts. Bader has been comfortably above-average against lefties, looking at his career as a whole. However, he was poor overall at the plate last year, with an 85 wRC+ (100 is average)—and he was worse against southpaws than righties, posting a 70 wRC+ against them. What the Twins Need Minnesota certainly needs a capable center fielder to play behind Byron Buxton, after last year's group at that position (outside of Buxton) was terrible defensively. Despite his defense, though, Bader’s flaws at the plate are a big issue. This team’s lineup is riddled with hitters who are hard to rely on, due to inconsistent performance, poor health records, or both. Matt Wallner is the only hitter on the team who has hit throughout his career and hasn't dealt with significant injury issues in the last year. Even then, many fans question his sustainability due to a few massive slumps and his high-strikeout profile. For a team shouldering so much risk on the offensive side of the ball, somebody who has consistently hit lefties just made sense for this role. It is true, however, that each run Bader will save in center is as good as one created at the plate. Alternatives to Bader There were other free agents with more offense-focused skill sets from the right side of the plate whom the Twins could have targeted. Austin Hays, Ramón Laureano, and Randal Grichuk signed for less than Bader and are true lefty mashers. But the Twins opted to go with the defensive profile, despite almost no offensive upside. If the Twins can get strong offensive performances from their core pieces, Bader will fill in nicely and be a great role player. However, if health is an issue and the Twins don't get bounce-backs from their young players who struggled down the stretch, Bader could be a frustrating piece amid a sputtering offense. Do you think the Twins were right to sign Bader over the more offensive-focused players? View full article

Bryan de la Cruz, Austin Hays, and Dylan Carlson were all non-tendered by their respective clubs last month. In the right role, though, each has the potential to help a Twins team on a tight winter budget. Image courtesy of © Kim Klement Neitzel-Imagn Images This offseason, the Twins have a familiar hole to fill: a right-handed-hitting outfielder. Currently, the only right-handed outfielders projected on the Opening Day roster are Byron Buxton and Austin Martin, the latter of whom was a lousy defender and an underpowered hitter last season. Despite the departure of Max Kepler, they still have the left side of the plate covered by outfielders, with Trevor Larnach, Matt Wallner, and Willi Castro (who is best from the left side and in left field). They have even more lefties coming in, such as Emmanuel Rodriguez and Walker Jenkins. In recent years, they've filled the right-handed fourth outfielder gig in various low-wattage ways. Those signings all have produced against lefties at just about an acceptable level, and there's no reason to expect them to make a big splash for the role now. Can any of the name-brand non-tendered, right-handed outfielders provide stability in 2025? Bryan De La Cruz: 2024 stats: .233/.271/.384; 77 wRC+, -1.2 fWAR, MLB Trade Rumors Arbitration Projection: $4MM Given the poor performance and substantial arbitration projection, it's only a mild surprise that the Pirates non-tendered Bryan De La Cruz. The 27-year-old corner outfielder and DH is coming off the worst season of his four-year career, never having previously lit the league on fire. Even though the Pirates are cheaper than the Twins, they likely would have tendered him a contract around the MLB Trade Rumors arbitration projection if they had thought they could trade him at that figure. After all, they just traded for him from Miami at the trade deadline in late July. He can only play the corner outfield (poorly) and doesn't hit the ball particularly hard for a player of that profile, which is why he will likely be available at the Twins' price point. His struggles in 2024 were primarily against righties, however, and he was about average against lefties. As long as Castro and/or Martin can cover center field as backups to Buxton until Rodriguez or Jenkins are ready, De La Cruz's skill set could do the job for the Twins. However, as we saw previously with Kyle Garlick and Manuel Margot, this role seems good on paper, but all too often, a right-handed platoon bat will be forced to face righties, and it will be a problem for the team. The other place where there may be potential is that back in 2022, he had fantastic underlying metrics. He had a high hard-hit rate and barrel rate, translating to a 90th-percentile xwOBA that year. Even this season, he showed the ability to drive the ball relatively consistently—until being traded to the Pirates, when everything collapsed. Team Org PA Chase% ZSw-Chase InZoneWhiff% PHiA/SW 100+/Sw LaunchAng 90thExitVel Hit95+% Well Hit LA Sweet Spot EV BABIP Barrel% wOBA SAEV MIA 454 32.1% 44.0% 21.9% 2.8% 7.9% 13.8 104.3 43.3% 18.9 94.5 .297 22.8% .303 89.9 PIT 168 34.1% 38.2% 24.2% 1.5% 6.2% 11.1 103 36.0% 15.3 92.1 .269 18.9% .222 87.7 The Twins could find a real bargain here, if they can get De La Cruz back to what seemed to be working as recently as early in 2024. More likely, though, he would be a poor signing, with his limitations overshadowing his upside in the field and at the plate. Dylan Carlson: 2024 stats: .209/.287/.277; 67 wRC+, -1.0 fWAR, MLBTR Arbitration Projection: $2.7MM Carlson's 2024 stats make him look like another bottom-of-the-barrel pickup, not much different than De La Cruz, but he is much more intriguing overall. He hasn't been serviceable since 2022, dealing with nagging injuries throughout 2023 and really struggling in 2024, but there may be some upside with the 26-year-old. He has a great prospect pedigree. Just four years ago, Carlson was a top-20 prospect in baseball. Additionally, he was a really good defensive centerfielder as recently as 2022, and has been passable in that spot even since then. Carlson could bring much-needed insurance in case of a Buxton injury, while also being a quality option against lefties. The former Cardinal and Ray carries a 122 wRC+ against lefties in his career, despite struggling against all pitchers in 2024. If the Twins can turn him around, he would likely carry a high but not astronomical strikeout rate, a solid walk rate, a prorated platoon share of 30 doubles, and around 20 long balls. Providing that as a fourth outfielder capable of replacing Castro and Martin as Buxton's understudy would be massive for the Twins. Even if they can't get him back quite to that point, he could still be a contributor at around $3 million (or lower), so he may be a worthwhile reclamation project. Austin Hays: 2024 stats: .255/.303/.396; 98 wRC+, 0.2 fWAR, MLBTR Arbitration Projection: $6.4MM Hays (a 2023 All-Star) is the best of this bunch at the plate, but is also certain to be the most expensive. He's been a very reliable player over his career and is coming off just a slightly below-average 2024—playing in Baltimore and then being traded to Philadelphia. Were it not for a kidney infection that derailed him in the second half, Heys would probably have been tendered a contract by the Phillies. His stint with them left a sour taste for everyone, so they cut him loose, but he may still be too expensive for the Twins. Even if they can afford him, his defense is a drawback worth considering. He played no games in center field this season, and went from an excellent left fielder to a bad one. Entering his age-29 season, it's hard to see this turning around. If Hays can't cover for Buxton in center, he's certainly less valuable than he might have been a couple of years ago, when he did moonlight in center and was solid in each corner. Assuming his restored health holds, Hays provides the best bat of this group. Despite struggling by his standards, Hays crushed lefties in 2024 and has been very good against them throughout his career. The Twins may also see an opportunity to get more out of his bat in a new ballpark. Baltimore has been extremely deep in left field for the last few years, and adjusting his approach to hit more fly balls to left field (outs in front of Walltimore, but home runs at Target Field) could make Hays an impact player available cheaply. Signing other teams' unwanted players is not the optimal way to build a roster, but Derek Falvey and Jeremy Zoll need to be creative with the payroll limitations imposed upon them by ownership. It's hard to imagine the Twins signing De La Cruz, with all his faults, but it's easy to foresee them trying to get either Hays or Carlson back on track. Both outfielders could provide stability and some upside to a team with a high floor. Do you want the Twins to take a shot on any of these three right-handed bats? View full article

The young Twins slugger had to reset himself in Triple-A this spring. It required mental fortitude and a willingness to adjust, without losing what makes him special. It was hard work, but he did it. Image courtesy of © orlando ramirez-usa today sports On Apr. 15, it seemed like 2024 would be a lost season for Matt Wallner. He had a putrid slash line of .080/.273/.240, fueled by a strikeout rate of over 50%. You cannot succeed as a hitter if you're striking out over half the time. He was lost, and in just 33 plate appearances, he went from an exciting piece of the young Twins core to facing questions about whether he could even be a future regular. It seemed possible his 2023 performance could have just been an aberration. Then he worked through things, returned in early July, and everything changed. The Resurgence Since coming back, Wallner has been one of the best players in baseball. That's not because he stopped striking out. Over the period since coming back, the local product still sports an extremely high 33.3% strikeout rate. Still, that rate can be manageable, when he destroys baseballs; has an above-average walk rate; and gets hit by as many pitches as just about anybody--which is excellent, as long as he stays healthy. Overall, in this period, he has a .292/.399/.615 slash line. That puts him fourth in the league, trailing MVP candidates Aaron Judge, Vladimir Guerrero Jr., and Bobby Witt Jr. This run has been extraordinary. The fuel behind this run has been Wallner obliterating baseballs. Since his return to the bigs on Jul. 7, he's been 6th in average exit velocity and first in barrel rate (the rate of all batted balls, which are hit hard at an optimal launch angle). That is pure destruction, and these numbers put him in the same class as Judge, Shohei Ohtani, and Juan Soto. It's what allows him to produce, despite his extreme swing-and-miss, the same way Miguel Sanó did during his best Twins seasons. Wallner's Outlook It seems as though many fans--and even the Twins organization, to an extent (indicated by their early demotion)--don't fully believe in Wallner. It might be the strikeouts; a notion that he's gotten special treatment as a Minnesotan, for some reason; or his rapid ascension. If fans are wrong and this is real, the Twins have a legitimate star on their hands, but can he sustain it? It's obvious he's not quite this good a hitter (only Aaron Judge is), but whether he can be one of the game's better hitters is a legitimate question. His strikeout rate will always be high, so the question is whether he can be a great hitter despite that. There are signs he can overcome all the strikeouts, but he'd be blazing a new path by being a great hitter over many years with his profile. The players with the best hitting production in the last ten years with a strikeout rate of over 30% are Sanó, Franmil Reyes, and Joey Gallo. While Sanó and Gallo each had an All-Star appearance, neither's career arc sparks confidence that Wallner can sustain this. It will come down to either reducing strikeouts or continuing to crush baseballs--and to continuing to play great defense. Like Gallo, Wallner is a deceptively excellent fielder, given his size and the stereotypes we attach to that offensive skill set. He had a bit of an adjustment period when he came up in 2022, and he's not the same player when stationed in left field, for some reason. As he's become something closer and closer to the regular right fielder, though, he's shown surprising speed in pursuit of fly balls; a good ability to cut the ball off in the gap and down the line; and a monster arm. Though his sample there is still small, it looks like he could easily be 10 runs better than an average right fielder in the field over a full season. That would be a boon to his value, whenever it fluctuates because of all those whiffs. Wallner will come down to Earth, but if he maintains elite barrel and hard-hit rates, he can still be great. Whether he can be a regular for years to come relies on him being a unicorn of batted-ball quality, which is unlikely but possible. He has been phenomenal this season. We should recognize and enjoy that. Hopefully, he can keep it up enough to get the Twins into the playoffs, and to fuel a postseason run. View full article

The Minnesota Twins cut their Opening Day payroll by roughly $30 million from 2023 to 2024, even as they try to sustain their reign in the AL Central. Which offseason decisions were constrained by that cut, and has it really hurt them? Image courtesy of © Nick Turchiaro-USA TODAY Sports Throughout the offseason, Twins Daily, Twins Twitter, and other commentators wanted a variety of free agents and trade targets that seemed somewhat attainable for the Twins. Due to the payroll limitations, the front office chose to go with a cheaper alternative to all of those players. How are those alternatives doing in 2024, relative to their more expensive counterpart? Carlos Santana vs. Rhys Hoskins Carlos Santana Through 5/14: .213/.287/.404 96 wRC+ Rhys Hoskins Through 5/14: .233/.340/.474 131 wRC+ For a team with so much left-handed hitting talent and a reasonably flexible budget, Rhys Hoskins seemed like an obvious fit for the Twins, and Cody Schoenmann astutely wrote that up here at Twins Daily in January. Hoskins brings a track record of above-average hitting in every single year of his career and (as a lefty-masher who's been good against righties, too) would have diversified a group with a lot of left-handed hitters, but it was not to be. Hoskins signed a two-year, $34-million deal with Milwaukee—with a player option in the second year and a mutual option in 2026. This deal may have been palatable for the Twins in a typical offseason, but not this year. A player option coming off a torn ACL and a salary approaching $20 million didn't make sense for a cost-cutting team. They landed with Carlos Santana instead, and he's been fine, accounting for his recent surge. He's not close to Hoskins as a hitter, but the Twins might point out he's a much better defensive first baseman. The defense isn't enough to close the significant offensive gap, so the Twins would be much better off with Hoskins. It's noteworthy that Hoskins is now on the 10-day IL with a hamstring strain, but he should be back in a month or less, and we shouldn't assume that Santana will stay healthy, either. Tommy Pham/Michael A. Taylor/Adam Duvall vs. Manuel Margot Manuel Margot Through 5/14: .177/.241/.222, 42 wRC+, -2 DRS Tommy Pham Through 5/14: .308/.357/.446 131 wRC+, -3 DRS Michael A. Taylor Through 5/14: .225/.270/.284 58 wRC+, 5 DRS Adam Duvall Through 5/14: .220/.309/.356 91 wRC+, 1 DRS The market for right-handed outfielders moved exceptionally slowly, and the Twins were massive losers in that market. Instead of waiting it out and risking not having sufficient Byron Buxton insurance in center field, they traded for Manuel Margot, who has been one of the worst players in the game. Pham, Taylor, and Duvall are all making the same or less than the Twins are paying Margot, even with Tampa and the Dodgers retaining some of his salary. The Twins clearly misread the market and, with their constraints, thought they couldn't afford any of the superior alternatives, so they brought in Margot. He has not hit at all, and there are no signs of him turning a corner—not to mention, the Twins haven't trusted him in center field with any regularity. The Margot mistake has something to do with the budget constraints and a mistake by the front office, but any of Margot's alternatives would be better than him offensively, defensively, or both. So, it is another position where the Twins' harsh budget constraints prevented a productive acquisition and led to far inferior production. Michael Lorenzon/Sonny Gray/Corbin Burnes vs. Simeon Woods Richardson/Louie Varland Michael Lorenzon Through 5/14: 36 IP, 3.75 ERA, 5.11 FIP Sonny Gray Through 5/14: 41.1 IP, 3.05 ERA, 2.79 FIP Corbin Burnes Through 5/14: 53.2 IP, 2.68 ERA, 3.54 FIP Simeon Woods Richardson and Louie Varland Combined Through 5/14: 41.2 IP, 5.61 ERA, 5.87 FIP After having the best starting rotation in the American League in 2023, the Twins would unlikely repeat their performance in 2024. Twins fans and pundits hoped they would at least make an effort to put together another great rotation in the offseason, but they did just about nothing--due, again, to budget constraints. The only rotation addition was Anthony DeSclafani, who had a poor 2023 and will miss the entire season after having arm surgery this spring. After they learned of his injury, they still decided to roll with internal options—like Simeon Woods Richardson and Louie Varland—to round out the rotation in the fifth spot, with Chris Paddack (returning from his own serious injury) fourth. Varland was terrible before his demotion, but Woods Richardson has been good thus far. Had the Twins had a typical budget increase, bringing back Sonny Gray would've been on the table--although this regime has shown little interest in paying free-agent starters on multi-year deals. Alternatively, they could've hit the trade market for a somewhat expensive pitcher nearing free agency like Corbin Burnes. The Twins had reported interest in the former Cy Young winner, but such a trade was undoable with their budget constraints—even setting aside a considerable prospect price. Gray and Burnes have been much better than the internal choices, and both could start a playoff game. They also would, of course, boost the depth of a rotation needing it. Even if they didn't want to go big game hunting, they could've added veteran depth to ensure that Varland wouldn't be relied upon immediately. Michael Lorenzon made perfect sense for such a move, at around $4.5 million. Under normal circumstances, this front office would be all over that contract on a one-year deal, but not with payroll cuts. He's nothing spectacular, but he's better than Varland and would have added much-needed depth to this rotation. The Verdict Free agency can be risky business, so there was no guarantee that the Twins' payroll cuts would hurt them, but they have. They've missed out on production at multiple spots in the lineup and unnecessarily capped the rotation's depth and upside. The team is still very competitive, so hopefully, the constraints don't hamper their efforts at the trade deadline. View full article

As the Minnesota Twins sat on their hands for the most part this offseason, the Detroit Tigers were lauded nationally for investing in the team. This praise comes after the Tigers finished 2023 in second place in the AL Central—nine games back of the Twins, at 78-84. Image courtesy of © Junfu Han / USA TODAY NETWORK Those moves were all pretty low-wattage, too. They signed free-agent starting pitchers Kenta Maeda and Jack Flaherty, as well as former Twins infielder Gio Urshela. They also traded for outfielder Mark Canha. To top it off, they showed their faith in infield prospect Colt Keith by signing him to a $28.6-million extension. After all these moves, are the Tigers ready to compete for an AL Central crown? They haven't seriously done so since 2015. Is the second rebuild the charm? Tigers’ Strengths Ace Starting Pitcher Twins fans, like any fan base, know how hard it is to find an ace starting pitcher and how impactful they can be. The Tigers found theirs, with Tarik Skubal. After struggling for the Tigers in parts of 2020 and 2021, Skubal established himself as a frontline starter in 2022. Through 117 innings, he posted a 3.52 ERA, with underlying numbers that backed up his stellar performance. Then, he left an Aug. 1 start with arm soreness that led to flexor tendon surgery, seemingly halting his ascent. When he returned in 2023, he proved undeterred by the surgery and ready to take another leap. In 80 1/3 innings after his return in 2023, he put up a jaw-dropping 2.80 ERA, with underlying numbers that showed he may even be better than that. With good reason, Skubal is a popular pick for the American League Cy Young Award in 2024. Having an ace like him is tremendously valuable, and he is undoubtedly the crown jewel of this Tigers roster. Ascendant Young Pair of Hitters With Miguel Cabrera's bloated contract finally done and his Hall of Fame career over, the Tigers have assembled a core of young hitters ready to lead the organization into its new era. Star outfielder Riley Greene and former first overall pick Spencer Torkelson headline the group. The Tigers' offense in 2024 will rely on this duo to step up and steer the ship. Greene is solid in the outfield, good offensively and defensively. After being called up and struggling in 2022, he put up a solidly above-average offensive season. Unfortunately for the Twins, Greene seemed to be unlucky in 2023, despite very good results. His expected numbers significantly trailed his actual statistics. There may be a reason beyond luck for this discrepancy, but for now, he is a massive talent at 23 years old with an even brighter future than his 2023 results indicate. Like Greene, Torkelson took a big step forward in 2023 after a bad first year in the majors in 2022. He took off in the second half, and the Tigers will hope he never looks back. Torkelson, too, underperformed his expected stats significantly, so there's room for even more optimism in 2024. However, it may be because he is a right-handed hitter. This pair, plus Skubal, makes it easy for Tigers fans to dream about overtaking the Twins in 2024. What’s Holding Them Back Javier Báez and His Big, Bad Contract At the end of his career, Miguel Cabrera's contract held back the Tigers, due to his poor performance and the team's voluntary constriction in spending. In 2022, the Tigers added a new big contract, which will age much worse than Cabrera's deal (though on a smaller scale). When Carlos Correa turned down a massive offer from the Tigers in 2022, they turned to Báez. They will deal with Báez’s $23.3 million-AAV contract through 2027, destroying any potential payroll flexibility. Báez posted a putrid 61 wRC+ in 2023. He is one of the worst hitters in the league, and running him out to shortstop every day will crush this supposedly up-and-coming Tigers team. To his credit, he’s still a wizard at shortstop, but that can’t make up for this type of offense. An offense with Báez and a catcher spot occupied by the similarly impotent Jake Rogers will always have a top-heavy shape. Starting Pitching Question Marks Despite adding Maeda and Flaherty, the Tigers rotation is full of questions beyond Skubal. We know Maeda isn’t durable, Flaherty has struggled with health and performance for a few years, Casey Mize hasn’t pitched in a competitive game since 2022 after undergoing Tommy John surgery, and hasn’t yet broken out in any way at the MLB level. Reese Olson is promising, but was never a top prospect, and projection systems don’t love him--despite a good 104 MLB innings in 2023. The Tigers rely on these four guys, who seem incredibly unreliable, even for secondary starting pitchers. Should one or more of these guys go down for a significant time, Detroit has plenty of starters in the upper minors ready to step in, but they are nothing to write home about. There’s an outside chance the promising 21-year-old Jackson Jobe will debut late in the season, but it's unlikely he will impact the 2024 Tigers in a material way. Despite being led by a true ace, this rotation's issues are enough to make a Tigers fan queasy. Pivot Point The Tigers will need a lot to go right to take the division in 2024, but it will all come down to their young players. Will Torkelson, Greene, and Kerry Carpenter lead an effective offense? Will prospects Jace Jung, Parker Meadows, and Keith properly supplement the core? And most importantly, will their rotation hold up? The Tigers organization has reason for optimism, but plenty of question marks. Do you believe in the 2024 Tigers? Do they worry you? Join the discussion below. View full article

There's a wider array of possibilities for the Minnesota Twins at DH this year than they've had in the majority of the last five years. Neither injuries nor a rigidly defined role for a limited player have foreclosed options for them. That said, there's one player most likely to occupy that spot for the majority of the season, and he himself poses a big question. Image courtesy of © Sam Navarro-USA TODAY Sports Last year, the Twins used the designated hitter position to keep Byron Buxton in the lineup, and to get injured players off their feet once Buxton was on the injured list. Buxton's plan to play center field this year opens up the DH spot for a new player to play full-time—at least to start the season. Alex Kirilloff will likely be the primary DH against right-handed pitchers, with Carlos Santana, the superior defender, handling first base. Kirilloff's new role brings up the question Twins fans have asked since 2021: will he finally have a productive and healthy season? It’s easy to be skeptical of the former top prospect. He hasn’t played 90 games in a season and has had some nasty rough patches, where his signature line drives to left-center field were replaced with strikeouts and routine ground balls to second base. With limited first-base reps expected this season, Kirilloff needs to step it up offensively to add value. The Twins hope that less time at first base will keep him healthy enough to be the hitter Twins fans once dreamed of. What are the key variables? Health Kirilloff has had persistent health issues since 2021, mainly focused on his wrist. He underwent surgery in July of 2021 to repair a torn ligament. In 2022, he tried to come back from that surgery and struggled to play through the lingering pain. To relieve the pain, he had another procedure in August of 2022, in which they shaved off some of his ulna bone to attempt to relieve the pain. In 2023, Kirilloff finally put the wrist issues behind him, after starting the season on the injured list due to being a bit behind schedule. But, in July, a new issue came up that he never recovered from. Kirilloff suffered a shoulder strain, which put him on the injured list for much of the season, and after his return, he wasn't the same--or, put another way, he was his same old, largely ineffective self. Following the season, he underwent another operation to repair his shoulder. Hopefully, the wrist issues are in the rearview mirror, and his shoulder cooperates so he can finally have an entire season at his best. Performance With all the frustrations around Kirilloff's health, his performance has become an afterthought. It feels like we’ve seen him at his best in stretches, but it quickly goes awry. A great example of this was his tremendous May in 2023, in which he posted a fantastic 167 wRC+. It seemed like we were finally getting the hitter we were promised, but that didn’t come to fruition, as he struggled in June and was good (but not great) when he played for the rest of the way. It's unrealistic to expect Kirilloff to put together a season in which he performs like he did in May 2023, but if the Twins can get something close, he will massively elevate the lineup and make the DH plan work. Kirilloff's 2023 ended painfully, when he was pulled off the playoff roster after struggling offensively and missing an essential play at first base in the pivotal Game 3 loss against Houston. It’s clear there's a great hitter in him, and if he can tap into his massive talent for most of the 2024 season, he will be a big bonus for the lineup. If not, Brooks Lee, Trevor Larnach, and others will look to push him out of a job. View full article

Is Anthony DeSclafani enough to boost the rotation of a Minnesota Twins team that wants to be true contenders? Image courtesy of © Darren Yamashita-USA TODAY Sports While the acquisitions of reliever Justin Topa and top-100 prospect Gabriel González were exciting pieces to receive for Jorge Polanco as part of a four-player package, the inclusion of Anthony Desclafani revealed that the Twins likely finalized their 2024 rotation in an uninspiring fashion. The addition of Desclafani leaves the rotation in a concerning spot for a team looking to contend not just for an AL Central title but also a World Series title. Slotting him in as the fifth starter leaves the backend of the rotation mediocre, doesn't address the need for an additional frontline starter to pair with Pablo López, and brings in more injury questions for a rotation full of them. Questionable Backend of the Rotation The Twins went into the offseason with the makings of a strong starting rotation despite the imminent departures of Sonny Gray and Kenta Maeda. They needed to acquire a frontline starter to pair with López, and Chris Paddack; Joe Ryan; and Bailey Ober would fill in. Beyond forming a 1-2 punch at the front of the rotation, the trio at the back would stand above their peers. Despite a disappointing 2023, Ryan is projected to post a solid 4.01 ERA by Fangraphs' ZiPS projection system. ZiPS projects Ober to post a 3.98 ERA. These results would be an improvement on the Twins' worst two rotation mainstays from 2023- Ryan and Maeda, who posted a 4.51 ERA and 4.23 ERA. If Ober and Ryan, who have shown the ability to outpitch these projections at times, meet these projections, that would be a significant step up on last year's rotation, one of the best in Twins history. DeSclafani, on the other hand, is projected to post a 4.30 ERA. That's okay and is still an improvement on Maeda and Ryan's 2023 performance, but it diminishes a potentially elite backend of the rotation. DeSclafani's presence isn't a disaster by any means, but his taking up a place on the staff prevents the back of the rotation from being the strength it could and should be. Still Needing a Frontline Starter With their strong lineup, bullpen, and some strong starters, the expectations for the 2024 Twins are to repeat as division champions and try to make it to the ALCS or beyond. To do that, they need an additional playoff-caliber starter without Gray. The front office might argue that Paddack is ready to be that guy after his promising glimpses out of the bullpen in 2023. That may be true, but he has not been good since his rookie season in 2019. Five years and a Tommy John surgery later, he's not a guy to rely upon. The Twins also might believe Ryan or Ober can step up, but they didn't show that this past year, and the Twins didn't believe in them when they planned early exits for both of them in the ALDS. Ryan especially may be able to become a high-end number two starter, but he's relying on his improved slider to work, and he needs to keep the ball in the park. These options are not what a team that is more likely than not to make a playoff appearance per betting odds should plan on. They can still get a frontline starter before the season starts or even at the deadline, but the DeSclafani addition indicates that move won't happen. For now, these are the options, and they need to be better for the team to meet its goals in October. Injury Questions On top of the pure talent of the rotation not fitting with the ambitions this organization should have for 2024, it's also riddled with injury questions. Pitchers often have injury concerns, but the fewer injury concerns on the staff, the less likely injuries are to derail a promising season. Paddack is coming off his second Tommy John surgery and hasn't pitched more than 110 innings since 2021. Ober has been fragile for his entire professional career, and his 164 innings in 2023 were the first time he pitched more than 110 innings. DeSclafani brings a flexor strain, which he is yet to be cleared from, although there's hope he's ready by Opening Day. These concerns are enough to make one queasy about the rotation entering the year. The Jorge Polanco trade had many interesting components and parts to be excited about. But the way the rotation shakes out with DeSclafani as the fifth starter and no additional frontline starter is not where it should be. Will the Twins make another move to upgrade their rotation to one worthy of the team, or is this it? View full article