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On Apr. 15, it seemed like 2024 would be a lost season for Matt Wallner. He had a putrid slash line of .080/.273/.240, fueled by a strikeout rate of over 50%. You cannot succeed as a hitter if you're striking out over half the time.
He was lost, and in just 33 plate appearances, he went from an exciting piece of the young Twins core to facing questions about whether he could even be a future regular. It seemed possible his 2023 performance could have just been an aberration. Then he worked through things, returned in early July, and everything changed.
The Resurgence
Since coming back, Wallner has been one of the best players in baseball. That's not because he stopped striking out. Over the period since coming back, the local product still sports an extremely high 33.3% strikeout rate. Still, that rate can be manageable, when he destroys baseballs; has an above-average walk rate; and gets hit by as many pitches as just about anybody--which is excellent, as long as he stays healthy.
Overall, in this period, he has a .292/.399/.615 slash line. That puts him fourth in the league, trailing MVP candidates Aaron Judge, Vladimir Guerrero Jr., and Bobby Witt Jr. This run has been extraordinary.
The fuel behind this run has been Wallner obliterating baseballs. Since his return to the bigs on Jul. 7, he's been 6th in average exit velocity and first in barrel rate (the rate of all batted balls, which are hit hard at an optimal launch angle). That is pure destruction, and these numbers put him in the same class as Judge, Shohei Ohtani, and Juan Soto. It's what allows him to produce, despite his extreme swing-and-miss, the same way Miguel Sanó did during his best Twins seasons.
Wallner's Outlook
It seems as though many fans--and even the Twins organization, to an extent (indicated by their early demotion)--don't fully believe in Wallner. It might be the strikeouts; a notion that he's gotten special treatment as a Minnesotan, for some reason; or his rapid ascension. If fans are wrong and this is real, the Twins have a legitimate star on their hands, but can he sustain it?
It's obvious he's not quite this good a hitter (only Aaron Judge is), but whether he can be one of the game's better hitters is a legitimate question. His strikeout rate will always be high, so the question is whether he can be a great hitter despite that.
There are signs he can overcome all the strikeouts, but he'd be blazing a new path by being a great hitter over many years with his profile. The players with the best hitting production in the last ten years with a strikeout rate of over 30% are Sanó, Franmil Reyes, and Joey Gallo. While Sanó and Gallo each had an All-Star appearance, neither's career arc sparks confidence that Wallner can sustain this. It will come down to either reducing strikeouts or continuing to crush baseballs--and to continuing to play great defense.
Like Gallo, Wallner is a deceptively excellent fielder, given his size and the stereotypes we attach to that offensive skill set. He had a bit of an adjustment period when he came up in 2022, and he's not the same player when stationed in left field, for some reason. As he's become something closer and closer to the regular right fielder, though, he's shown surprising speed in pursuit of fly balls; a good ability to cut the ball off in the gap and down the line; and a monster arm. Though his sample there is still small, it looks like he could easily be 10 runs better than an average right fielder in the field over a full season. That would be a boon to his value, whenever it fluctuates because of all those whiffs.
Wallner will come down to Earth, but if he maintains elite barrel and hard-hit rates, he can still be great. Whether he can be a regular for years to come relies on him being a unicorn of batted-ball quality, which is unlikely but possible. He has been phenomenal this season. We should recognize and enjoy that. Hopefully, he can keep it up enough to get the Twins into the playoffs, and to fuel a postseason run.
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