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As the Twins approach the trade deadline staring down the possibility of making just one playoff appearance in five seasons, it's time to consider shaking up the core that has underwhelmed. Larnach is one of the core players who makes the most sense to move. With him plateauing as a good but flawed regular and Matt Wallner, Emmanuel Rodriguez, Walker Jenkins, and Luke Keaschall (who can play outfield) all in their plans for the foreseeable future, now is the moment to trade away the burly lefty.
It's been a tumultuous career for the Twins' 2018 first-round pick. Larnach has battled through injuries and made significant adjustments to a league that stopped throwing him almost any fastballs. He seems to have settled in as a solid hitter against righties, with little defensive value, and not as much power as the team would've wanted. He leaned further into that medium-power profile, significantly flattening his swing in the offseason, seeking more line drives. Given his value at the plate and two and a half years of team control, the Twins still should be able to get some value in a trade from a contender. His increasing salary via arbitration could be additional motivation for the front office to shop him.
There have been some similar players moved in the past couple of trade deadlines, but of course, there is no exact match for Larnach. We'll try to figure out the value based on those trades.
A few teams may target Larnach as just the left-handed slugger they need for their playoff push, too. Those are teams struggling against righties and/or lacking production from left field or at designated hitter. There could also be people in those front offices who may see untapped potential in the 28-year-old. They may think there's more power, given his solid but formerly high-end max exit velocities.
Benchmark Trades
Using past trades to assess potential future trades is tricky, because every player and contract situation is unique. Larnach, as a trade candidate, is especially unusual, because established big-leaguers with two and a half years of team control aren't often traded. There are, however, a couple of helpful comparisons.
Jake Burger to the Rangers
After another lackluster season for Miami, the Fish decided to move Jake Burger ahead of the 2025 season, while he was still under team control for four years. Texas got a bat with limited defensive value and no baserunning acumen. Also similar to Larnach, he was a former first-round pick and top-100 prospect. The Marlins sought to replace Burger with prospects who held more upside down the line, despite the extreme uncertainty surrounding each player in the return.
Miami received three young prospects in the deal, none of whom are close to contributing to the big-league club, but each had a very high ceiling. Echedvry Vargas was ranked 17th in MLB.com's Rangers rankings, Max Acosta was a bit lower on the list but formerly a highly-regarded toolsy prospect, and Bryan Mendoza seemed to be on the rise, dominating Single-A hitters to a 2.18 ERA in 2024, before a promotion to High-A.
This trade shows the perils of doing a deal like this. On its face, Miami got a few prospects who could impact the organization and be stars if they hit the jackpot. But just half a season later, Vargas is getting dominated in High-A, Acosta is stalling out in Triple-A, and Mendoza has completely lost the strike zone, with 29 walks in 50.2 innings.
If the Twins go for a group of extremely young prospects, the odds are that they'll come up empty and ship out a contributor for nothing.
Lane Thomas to the Guardians
The return Washington got for Lane Thomas at the last trade deadline, when they sent him to Cleveland, is playing out much better than the Burger deal. Thomas had less remaining team control than Larnach at the time of the deal, but was also a slightly better player than Larnach.
The most exciting piece headed to Washington was Alex Clemney, a big 20-year-old lefty. At the time of the trade, he was 19 at Single-A with a 4.67 ERA, but he was striking out 12.6 batters per nine innings. This performance was accompanied by a high walk rate, which he still maintains at High-A. However, he has brought his ERA down to 3.07 as a very young player for his level. He also appeared at the Futures Game in 2025, so he may be on track to make this trade hurt for the Guardians.
With Clemney, Cleveland gave up José Tena, a switch-hitting infielder who was blocked by their solid depth. He slotted in as the Nationals' primary third baseman in early 2025 and has been an average at the plate but carried putrid defense, so he's back in Triple-A, where maybe he can improve as a hitter and learn to play first base. Washington also received Rafael Ramirez Jr., who is still 19 and on a sound track so far, after receiving a substantial signing bonus of $800,000 as an international free agent.
Washington pulled off a much better deal than Miami, and something comparable could be possible with Larnach for the Twins. If they have a chance to add a Tena-type Triple-A player and upside with youngsters like Clemney and Ramirez Jr., they should pull the trigger.
Potential Suitors
If Larnach is on the move in the coming week, Minnesota will likely send him to a contending team that is struggling to get production from left field and DH. A few National League contenders fit the bill.
Los Angeles Dodgers
A team we'd think has no flaws, the Dodgers have received poor production from left field, collectively putting up -0.1 fWAR from the position. They may get sick of throwing the floundering Michael Conforto out there against righties, so Larnach could solve that issue and slot in for them for the next few years. Undoubtedly, they'll have no issues with paying his salary.
The Dodgers, of course, are the best organization in baseball and have some intriguing prospects who could be available in this deal. Derek Falvey and Jeremy Zoll would be wise to target Jackson Ferris. He has struggled to throw strikes this season, but is a nasty lefty with a similar profile to Clemney. The Dodgers received Ferris for Michael Busch, who is similar in many ways to Larnach, so this may be a match. Larnach and Ferris could also be a part of a larger deal involving Jhoan Duran or Griffin Jax, should the Dodges win those bidding wars.
Beyond Ferris, the Twins could try to revitalize James Outman, who has been horrendous since his breakout 2023 season. With his all-around skillset, he'd be worth trying to fix as an add-in.
San Diego Padres
The Padres have struggled against left-handed pitchers and have gotten nothing from left field, which is currently being manned by Gavin Sheets. Larnach could be a massive boost for them down the stretch to address these needs. A.J. Preller has gone all in at recent deadlines, leaving their system a bit light. Therefore, setting his sights a bit lower on a functional player (but not a superstar) could be wise. The Friars are also looking to move Dylan Cease, given their financial challenges, and the Twins could try to get involved as a third team in such a deal. Cease would go elsewhere, but Larnach would land with San Diego and Minnesota could snare another team's prospect in the spin of the wheel.
Of what's left in their system, most of their best prospects are either too talented for Larnach's value or very young. Right-handed reliever Bradgley Rodriguez, is one appealing name. The flamethrower has appeared in the majors this season, but is now back at Triple-A. He throws hard, gets strikeouts, and limits walks. At a deadline where the Twins may be dealing Duran or Jax, Rodriguez could be a wise target to fill in at the back end of the bullpen in 2026 and beyond.
Henry Baez and Braden Nett in Double-A may be more exciting for the Twins. Both are hard throwers, thriving at the level at 22 and 23, respectively. Baez has much better control, while Nett has a superior prospect pedigree.
While this is not the best farm system in baseball, Preller always seems to replenish it with more talent. It could be a good deal for everybody if the Twins get one or two of these pitching prospects, plus a teenage lottery ticket-type prospect.
Cincinnati Reds
A team that we know is familiar to the Twins, Cincinnati has a problem in left field because Spencer Steer is stalling out, and Will Benson is struggling. The Twins could pick up the phone with this familiar trading partner and make something happen, providing the help that Emilio Pagán is asking for. Reds fans desperately wanted Josh Naylor, who was traded from Arizona to Seattle, so Larnach could be a nice plan B.
As a team (like the Twins) who relies on their farm system to make up their big-league roster, Cincinnati doesn't have much sitting in Triple-A that matches Larnach's value.
Héctor Rodríguez, a 21-year-old left-handed hitting corner outfielder, is an interesting potential target. His reputation is that of a free swinger, but this season, he has increased his walk rate despite moving up to Double-A, and he has seemingly developed more home run power. While a Trevor Larnach-level career may be an excellent outcome for him, his bat-to-ball skills and potentially newfound power, along with the potential for solid defense, show some upside. Adding him for Larnach would get another player for a new core and some upside.
Zach Maxwell is a behemoth of a right-handed pitcher, standing at 6'6" and throwing in the upper 90s. He's struggled at Triple-A and has not been able to find the necessary control to succeed. At that height, he may fit into the Twins' mold and be a pitcher they could target, as well.
A fun but different potential target is Christian Encarnacion-Strand. The former Twins prospect has been horrible with the big-league club, but perhaps the Twins still see something in him, even after trading him. Fixing him could allow them to address their perennial right-handed hitting masher and first-baseman needs.
Larnach can help some contending teams out there, and it seems likely the Twins could get some value for him and potentially some real upside. Is he a good piece to move to start transitioning the Twins' core towards a younger group?
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