How Much Can We Take from Ty France's Scorching Spring?

[Matthew Taylor]

While spring training stats don’t always matter, the Twins' new first baseman's performance is impossible to ignore. He’s crushing the ball, showing confidence, and turning heads. If this is a sign of what’s to come, the team may have landed a key piece for their 2025 lineup.

Image courtesy of © Chris Tilley-Imagn Images

Through the first few weeks of spring training, one of the standout performers for the Minnesota Twins has been Ty France. He has wasted no time making an impression with his new team. Following Saturday's Grapefruit League game (in which the right-handed batsman recorded a double, a home run, and four RBIs), Twins manager Rocco Baldelli had high praise for France.

"Yeah, he's, he's seeing the ball very well," Baldelli said. "He's hitting lasers all over the field, shooting balls. He's turning on balls. He looks great. You know, that's a great way to introduce yourself into a new situation. It's probably great for his confidence. It's great for us to be able to watch, you know, all the things that he's capable of. Really nice start to the spring for him. He's been, basically every at-bat, right where he wants to be."

Through his first nine games of the exhibition season, France has put up an eye-popping 1.517 OPS, with two home runs and eight RBIs. Of course, we have to apply the significant caveat that spring stats don’t really matter—this is a sample size of just 23 at-bats, some of which have probably come against minor-league pitchers. Perhaps the biggest takeaway is that he looks completely healthy.

Last season, France’s production dipped significantly after he fractured his heel when he was hit by a pitch. That injury lingered, and his numbers took a hit. Now, with a fully healthy offseason under his belt, the strong start to the spring suggests that he has moved past that injury, which is the first step (get it?) toward delivering on the investment the Twins made in him last month. Beyond the numbers, the early success could serve as a major confidence boost for France—not just in his swing, but also in his body.

The hot start also evokes memories of the peak of France’s career. It may seem like a long time ago, but just two seasons ago, he was an All-Star, finishing 2022 with a 125 OPS+. At 30 years old, he is not yet in the stage of his career where a significant decline should be expected. If anything, last year’s Twins first baseman, Carlos Santana, showed that a veteran can still contribute meaningfully, as he posted a 109 OPS+ at age 38 and exceeded expectations. France has already demonstrated his competence when healthy, and even in 2023—his last fully healthy season—he posted a 101 OPS+ with strong underlying indicators. The skills are still there, and with a strong start to the spring, there’s legitimate reason for optimism.

The numbers under the hood are as good as the results, or near enough, too. The 17 tracked batted balls France has hit in Statcast parks have had an average exit velocity of 94.7 mph and an average launch angle of 15°. It's easier to put up big numbers like those in tiny samples, but he's right in the same neighborhood as some very good hitters.

If France can return to anything close to his All-Star form from two years ago, it would be massive for the Twins. The potency of the lineup is the biggest question mark for the team this season, and first base is one of the key areas of concern. Santana’s steady production in 2024 (particularly after a slow April) left a void that the team now hopes France can fill. The problem? The Twins don’t have much of a backup plan at first base if France struggles. Baldelli has already stated that he does not plan to use Willi Castro at first, and the other options—Edouard Julien (defensive concerns), Jose Miranda (a defensive liability), and 29-year-old minor league journeyman Mickey Gasper—are not ideal. If France can provide solid to above-average production, it would go a long way toward stabilizing the Twins' lineup.

The Twins know they will get strong production from stars like Carlos Correa, Royce Lewis, and Byron Buxton (at least while they're on the field), but it’s the fringe players—like France—who could make the difference between a tepid team and a true playoff contender.

Ultimately, it's too early to tell much, but it’s hard not to get at least a little excited when a player shows flashes of what made him successful in the past. France’s early dominance is a reminder of the hitter he can be, and if he truly is back to full strength, he could be a major factor in the Twins’ success this season.

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What do you think? How confident are you in a Ty France bounce-back year? Let us know in the comments!

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[TwinsDr2021]

IMO, we can take that he has earned his spot on the major league club as a 1B/DH.  What he does with that during the season is TBD. I also think we can take away that if he doesn't keep it up during the regular season he will be given a long (too long) leash.

[Post-Concussive Blues]

I’m all aboard the Ty France train!

[arby58]

It's pretty rare  that a hitter, in his prime, would go from two seasons where he averaged around 630 plate appearances, a WAR of 3.8, and an OPS+ of over 126 and be entirely washed up two years later (unless injury-related). Health may well have been the primary issue last year. The Twins took a good chance, and it may well pay off. 

[TL]

I get the skepticism about the lineup based on the second half last year. But there is also big potential upside that could put us inside the top 5 if a few guys break out and the rest just don’t massively slump. France producing like even 75% of what he’s shown in the spring increases those odds. 

[Karbo]

While ST stats are inflated due to facing so many non MLB pitchers, I'm sure the confidence has to get stronger. France was a good hitter a couple of years back, so I will give him the benefit of the doubt for the 1st month or so. Time will tell, but he could be a good pickup.

[Whitey333]

I would imagine his spring training performance excites people just like Lopez spring pitching performance can be so negative.  Like a previous poster said the Twins can be good IF people produce.  That's an issue for 2025.  Way too many ifs for the 2025 Twins.

[terrydactyls]

If Julien and Miranda are both defensive liabilities at 1st base, why are they on the team?

[DJL44]

Quote

Jose Miranda (a defensive liability)

True, but Ty France rates even worse at 1B. 1st percentile in range (which means there are many minor leaguers who are better) and 4th percentile in arm strength.

[Doctor Gast]

I was hopeful that France could turn things around offensively & be that safety net for Miranda at 1B. Defensively, France has spent years at 1B & he's still bad. Miranda still hasn't been given the opportunity to learn 1B, so we can get an idea where his defensive ceiling is & keep him off 3B. Julien is a defensive liability at 1B also, but he is finally playing the position that he should have been playing in MiLB so I'll give him a break. France needs very little time at 1B, Miranda needs the great majority of time at 1B, which he hasn't been getting, but he has been put in 3B where he shouldn't be. During ST Julien should only have time at DH & sent down to AAA to learn how to play 1B.

I have a difficult time with Baldelli literally giving 1B to France when Miranda can potentially be a better defensive 1Bman after preaching all last season how important 1B is defensively over hitting. Start putting Miranda more often at 1B, give him a shot to be productive & healthy there. Give the team finally an opportunity to improve long term at 1B. France can be impactful at DH if he continues his hitting. 

[Hubie29]

I agree with everyone. I remember back when he was "going good", a few years ago, he was always talked about being acquired in a trade.  Twins had their eye on him for a couple years. I've always liked him. Hopefully he gets back to earlier form. I am betting he gets back somewhere close and is top 5 offensively on this team. 

[Bodie]

19 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

True, but Ty France rates even worse at 1B. 1st percentile in range (which means there are many minor leaguers who are better) and 4th percentile in arm strength.

I got 99 problems, and 1B arm strength ain't one of them!

I'll take a statue at 1B if he can hoover up the rest of th IFs slightly errant throws. Plenty of 1B lacked (and lack) Meintkeiwitcz's range and Joe Mauer's arm and somehow played to an adequate level.

[Otaknam]

It’s good to get your confidence up in spring training and prove yourself to the new team. But what happens in the spring doesn’t always continue when the season begins, whether a player had a good or bad spring..  The important thing is for France to be healthy for the season, and hopefully he continues to hit. 

[Mahoning]

It would be delightful to have a Twins hitter actually ready to go from Day 1, instead of a slow starter. We shall see.

[DJL44]

1 hour ago, Bodie said:

I got 99 problems, and 1B arm strength ain't one of them!

I'll take a statue at 1B if he can hoover up the rest of th IFs slightly errant throws. Plenty of 1B lacked (and lack) Meintkeiwitcz's range and Joe Mauer's arm and somehow played to an adequate level.

There is no evidence that France is particularly good at scooping errant throws. He was the lowest rated 1B defensivey last season by Statcast and OAA. The ratings that didn't have him at the bottom had him near the bottom. There is strong consensus he's a bad fielder. Maybe some of that is the injury, but I would bet on Miranda instead.

[JD-TWINS]

1 hour ago, Doctor Gast said:

I was hopeful that France could turn things around offensively & be that safety net for Miranda at 1B. Defensively, France has spent years at 1B & he's still bad. Miranda still hasn't been given the opportunity to learn 1B, so we can get an idea where his defensive ceiling is & keep him off 3B. Julien is a defensive liability at 1B also, but he is finally playing the position that he should have been playing in MiLB so I'll give him a break. France needs very little time at 1B, Miranda needs the great majority of time at 1B, which he hasn't been getting, but he has been put in 3B where he shouldn't be. During ST Julien should only have time at DH & sent down to AAA to learn how to play 1B.

I have a difficult time with Baldelli literally giving 1B to France when Miranda can potentially be a better defensive 1Bman after preaching all last season how important 1B is defensively over hitting. Start putting Miranda more often at 1B, give him a shot to be productive & healthy there. Give the team finally an opportunity to improve long term at 1B. France can be impactful at DH if he continues his hitting. 

Don’t need to play in games every day to improve or feel comfortable at a position. Practice makes perfect. No reason Miranda can’t improve enough with drills & other practice activity to become a competent 1B. Psychologically, one needs game reps at some point but getting confidence through practice reps should earn time in games……I like Miranda at 1B and assume he’ll play there v. RH pitching or DH as he’s a reverse splits guy.

[Road trip]

2 hours ago, arby58 said:

It's pretty rare  that a hitter, in his prime, would go from two seasons where he averaged around 630 plate appearances, a WAR of 3.8, and an OPS+ of over 126 and be entirely washed up two years later (unless injury-related). Health may well have been the primary issue last year. The Twins took a good chance, and it may well pay off. 

It's probably somewhat rare to fall off the cliff for two consecutive years at age 28, but when it does happen I do wonder how often said hitter bounces back to be productive again?  My fear is "rarely".  I'm struggling to come up with an example of someone who did it.  Hopefully France can, because other than a potentially good bat he's well below average in every other area (defense, speed, etc).  I would be less concerned if the Twins had a history of cutting bait quickly on these cheap veteran signings when they don't work out.... but the examples of Gallo, Margot, and Farmer do not give me much hope this will happen.

 

[arby58]

10 minutes ago, Road trip said:

I would be less concerned if the Twins had a history of cutting bait quickly on these cheap veteran signings when they don't work out.... but the examples of Gallo, Margot, and Farmer do not give me much hope this will happen.

 

I know Joey Gallo was everybody's favorite whipping boy in 2023, but some of the criticism of the front office for hanging with him strikes me as unfair. First, he was their most impactful hitter early in the season - he had an OPS over 1.000 for the first month of the season. He still was generally over .800 through the middle of June, and was over .800 as late as the beginning of July. He was in the .700s through the rest of the year. That doesn't sound like a player you 'quick hook.' His OPS+ for the year was 100 (i.e., league average), and his WAR for the year was 0.5 - above that of a replacement player. Yes, he struck out a lot, but he also led the Twins in HRs. I'm not saying he was great, or even good, but he was also not Margot.

[arby58]

16 minutes ago, Road trip said:

It's probably somewhat rare to fall off the cliff for two consecutive years at age 28, but when it does happen I do wonder how often said hitter bounces back to be productive again?  My fear is "rarely".  I'm struggling to come up with an example of someone who did it.  Hopefully France can, because other than a potentially good bat he's well below average in every other area (defense, speed, etc).  I would be less concerned if the Twins had a history of cutting bait quickly on these cheap veteran signings when they don't work out.... but the examples of Gallo, Margot, and Farmer do not give me much hope this will happen.

 

Carlos Santana isn't a perfect comparison, as his decline could be considered age-related, but putting up a 2.5 WAR last year was a pretty exceptional bounce back - maybe the Twins saw something there? Keeping in mind that France's OPS+ was still above 100 in 2023, it is not outside the realm of possibility that 2024 was an injury-related anomaly. 

[Road trip]

2 minutes ago, arby58 said:

Carlos Santana isn't a perfect comparison, as his decline could be considered age-related, but putting up a 2.5 WAR last year was a pretty exceptional bounce back - maybe the Twins saw something there? Keeping in mind that France's OPS+ was still above 100 in 2023, it is not outside the realm of possibility that 2024 was an injury-related anomaly. 

Agree, Santana had a better than expected year.  But his OPS+ was only a bit better than 2023 (109 vs 101), and a substantial portion of Santana's value was his glove, which France has no chance to replicate.

I guess a possible example of good to bad to good again would be Gary Gaetti, who fell off the cliff at age 30 and was simply a bad hitter (but great glove) for several years.  He then somehow became a productive bat again in his later 30's, including a couple of outstanding seasons at age 36 and 39, long after he left the Twins.  

So, yes, it could happen for France, but I'm hoping, not expecting, and certainly wouldn't bet on it.

[Rod Carews Birthday]

Let’s not get our heads stuck in the analysis.  Yes, these stats are against a major and minor league smorgasbord of pitching.  Yes, it’s early.  BUT, all of the hitters who aren’t hitting well are dining at that same smorgasbord.  Is he going to be this good?  Certainly not.  Could he be pretty good?  He’s done it before and he’s not old and no longer injured.   He just might.  At very least, he’s on a hot streak.  Let’s ride that out and see where it takes us.  

Hey, I’m willing to let him drop to at least a 1.200 OPS before I start calling for his benching!

[bean5302]

Too small of a sample size to really get a good feel for France's ability in the regular season. The first cuts are done, and better players/pitchers are going to be getting more time going forward.

Brooks Lee
'23 ST .333/.351/.611 OPS .962 wRC+ 151
'23 MLB .221/.265/.320 OPS .585 wRC+ 62

It's easy to feast off pitchers who are trying to ease into velocity, test new pitches or practice hitting specific locations where they're struggling. That's Spring Training. Unlike most Spring Training players, Ty France is fighting for his spot on an MLB roster. He has to show his abilities and there's high pressure to produce. While other players who are guaranteed spots can focus on improving their weaknesses and making adjustments, France has to take every at bat as if it were the playoffs.

In any case, he's making the team. I'd be stunned if he didn't after Baldelli's comments earlier this year, and Baldelli will likely keep putting France in there day after day no matter how poorly he performs, just like we saw with Carlos Santana out of the gate last year.

[LambchoP]

Can't look too deep into spring numbers, but it is nice to see since Rocco all but handed him the starting first base job...

[TopGunn#22]

When we first signed Ty France, I kind of groaned because I saw an opportunity for young players the Twins had signed and cultivated throughout their ascension to the major league roster getting squeezed.  Rocco spoke like France has already won the position on past reputation alone, and I was frustrated by that.

But I have to acknowledge that all Ty France has done since he got to camp is crush the ball.  He's not hitting what he is because he's blooping a few in.  He's mashing!  Now, I fully don't expect anything near a 1.517 OPS in the regular season.  And he's unquestionably BAD at 1B.  But as a 1B/DH/PH option if he's able to finish with an OPS between .750-.800 is nothing to sneeze at.  

The Twins still have young options starting with Jose Miranda.  I wouldn't give up on Miranda.  Luke Keaschall has been mentioned as a 1B option and I still have a strong opinion Trevor Larnach should be taking hundreds of throws and groundballs on a back field somewhere at 1B because if Larnach continues to trend upward with his hitting and E-Rod and Jenkins aren't too far away (and just from a defensive standpoint, Keirsey, if he hits at St. Paul should get a legit opportunity SOMETIME)!!  I don't want to be FORCED to trade Larnach if he becomes the hitter he's capable of being.  

I must salute Ty France for coming to camp and with his bat, loudly and consistently making it clear he's making the team.  I hope he has a good year from start to finish.  He may only be here one year, but with the young hitting prospects we have that may be all we need him for.  

[PatPfund]

France's hot spring won't replicate to the regular season (whoever posts a 1.5+ regular season is a baseball deity). But it clearly shows a healthy body, and a talented player competing as if his career is on the line, and those factors can translate well beyond ST.

The mention of defense is okay, but overwrought here. There aren't ANY Twin 1B candidates that are going to make you forget Santana's defense, and that's fine. 1B is as low on the defensive spectrum as it gets (outside of DH); this is an offense-first position and on that front Santana was barely passable (after a horrific start). 109 OPS+ may be "above league average" but it's mediocre for 1B; there is tons of room to get better, and potentially the players to do that. Plus, after years of management that considered mandatory team defense drills as a bad idea, the reverse is true this spring. We may see a general improvement (though no 1B Gold Glove).

I also think over-comparing France to Margot and Gallo is a mistake. The previous two represented fairly serious monetary commitments, while France is on a one-year non-guaranteed contract barely above the minimum. If he turns horrible, he would be even easier/cheaper to drop than Jay Jackson was last year, and the Twins will do it (a potential new owner means the FO and manager are auditioning to keep their jobs).

Though I don't expect France to turn horrible; I think he'll be here through the season or traded at the deadline.

[amjgt]

2 hours ago, DJL44 said:

There is no evidence that France is particularly good at scooping errant throws. He was the lowest rated 1B defensivey last season by Statcast and OAA. The ratings that didn't have him at the bottom had him near the bottom. There is strong consensus he's a bad fielder. Maybe some of that is the injury, but I would bet on Miranda instead.

Where would that evidence be?

I don't think either of the main defensive metrics (OAA and DRS) take scooping throws into account. 

I'm not here to say he's a good scooper. I have no idea. But I'd posit that you also have no idea.

[ryanking61]

5 hours ago, Post-Concussive Blues said:

I’m all aboard the Ty France train!

This sums up my hopes for this season XD 

[jmlease1]

It's very easy to ignore Ty France's hot start (small sample, hitting against minor leaguers, hitters are supposed to be ahead of pitchers, etc), but it doesn't mean that he hasn't found his swing again. I wasn't a fan of the signing, and I especially didn't like how he seemed to have been handed the starting job before spring training even started.

But fair play to him, he's gone out and done what he needs to do to show the possibility of a rebounding Ty France. I have concerns about his defense; he's never shown a lot there, although he seems to be pretty good at digging out throws in the dirt, which would be a benefit for this team. And maybe his range improves with a fully healed heel. But anyone who thinks he's going to be a plus defender will be disappointed. I'm hoping for average, and won't be surprised if he's well below that.

What gives me the most skepticism about his hot start and prospects with this team is his 2023 season. He really fell off from his earlier success in that season, with a bad drop-off in power. If he hadn't crowded the plate effectively (league high 34 HBP) it would have been a pretty poor offensive performance...and would have looked a lot like 2024. Last season he had a real injury that he battled through. What happened in 2023?

I hope everything I feared about France when he signed is wrong. The good spring training is a fine start, but there are still plenty of questions to be answered if he wants to show he's earned the job and not been handed it on scholarship due to "veteran" status.

[RpR]

5 minutes ago, jmlease1 said:

It's very easy to ignore Ty France's hot start (small sample, hitting against minor leaguers, hitters are supposed to be ahead of pitchers, etc), but it doesn't mean that he hasn't found his swing again. I wasn't a fan of the signing, and I especially didn't like how he seemed to have been handed the starting job before spring training even started.

But fair play to him, he's gone out and done what he needs to do to show the possibility of a rebounding Ty France. I have concerns about his defense; he's never shown a lot there, although he seems to be pretty good at digging out throws in the dirt, which would be a benefit for this team. And maybe his range improves with a fully healed heel. But anyone who thinks he's going to be a plus defender will be disappointed. I'm hoping for average, and won't be surprised if he's well below that.

What gives me the most skepticism about his hot start and prospects with this team is his 2023 season. He really fell off from his earlier success in that season, with a bad drop-off in power. If he hadn't crowded the plate effectively (league high 34 HBP) it would have been a pretty poor offensive performance...and would have looked a lot like 2024. Last season he had a real injury that he battled through. What happened in 2023?

I hope everything I feared about France when he signed is wrong. The good spring training is a fine start, but there are still plenty of questions to be answered if he wants to show he's earned the job and not been handed it on scholarship due to "veteran" status.

IF  you are going to worry about that then yuu had  better be just as fearful of Lewis' collapse at the end of last season.

 

[Bodie]

2 hours ago, arby58 said:

I know Joey Gallo was everybody's favorite whipping boy in 2023, but some of the criticism of the front office for hanging with him strikes me as unfair. First, he was their most impactful hitter early in the season - he had an OPS over 1.000 for the first month of the season. He still was generally over .800 through the middle of June, and was over .800 as late as the beginning of July. He was in the .700s through the rest of the year. That doesn't sound like a player you 'quick hook.' His OPS+ for the year was 100 (i.e., league average), and his WAR for the year was 0.5 - above that of a replacement player. Yes, he struck out a lot, but he also led the Twins in HRs. I'm not saying he was great, or even good, but he was also not Margot.

Yeah, he was worse.

And proof that WAR is meaningless.  Anyone with a pair of eyes (and an iron stomach) could watch and tell you he was a one dimensional player who FAR too often didn't display even that one dimension. 

Now let us never speak of this "Gallo" ever again...