How Much Can We Take from Ty France's Scorching Spring?

IMO, we can take that he has earned his spot on the major league club as a 1B/DH.  What he does with that during the season is TBD. I also think we can take away that if he doesn't keep it up during the regular season he will be given a long (too long) leash.

I’m all aboard the Ty France train!

I would imagine his spring training performance excites people just like Lopez spring pitching performance can be so negative.  Like a previous poster said the Twins can be good IF people produce.  That's an issue for 2025.  Way too many ifs for the 2025 Twins.

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Jose Miranda (a defensive liability)

True, but Ty France rates even worse at 1B. 1st percentile in range (which means there are many minor leaguers who are better) and 4th percentile in arm strength.

I was hopeful that France could turn things around offensively & be that safety net for Miranda at 1B. Defensively, France has spent years at 1B & he's still bad. Miranda still hasn't been given the opportunity to learn 1B, so we can get an idea where his defensive ceiling is & keep him off 3B. Julien is a defensive liability at 1B also, but he is finally playing the position that he should have been playing in MiLB so I'll give him a break. France needs very little time at 1B, Miranda needs the great majority of time at 1B, which he hasn't been getting, but he has been put in 3B where he shouldn't be. During ST Julien should only have time at DH & sent down to AAA to learn how to play 1B.

I have a difficult time with Baldelli literally giving 1B to France when Miranda can potentially be a better defensive 1Bman after preaching all last season how important 1B is defensively over hitting. Start putting Miranda more often at 1B, give him a shot to be productive & healthy there. Give the team finally an opportunity to improve long term at 1B. France can be impactful at DH if he continues his hitting. 

I agree with everyone. I remember back when he was "going good", a few years ago, he was always talked about being acquired in a trade.  Twins had their eye on him for a couple years. I've always liked him. Hopefully he gets back to earlier form. I am betting he gets back somewhere close and is top 5 offensively on this team. 

19 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

True, but Ty France rates even worse at 1B. 1st percentile in range (which means there are many minor leaguers who are better) and 4th percentile in arm strength.

I got 99 problems, and 1B arm strength ain't one of them!

I'll take a statue at 1B if he can hoover up the rest of th IFs slightly errant throws. Plenty of 1B lacked (and lack) Meintkeiwitcz's range and Joe Mauer's arm and somehow played to an adequate level.

It’s good to get your confidence up in spring training and prove yourself to the new team. But what happens in the spring doesn’t always continue when the season begins, whether a player had a good or bad spring..  The important thing is for France to be healthy for the season, and hopefully he continues to hit. 

It would be delightful to have a Twins hitter actually ready to go from Day 1, instead of a slow starter. We shall see.

1 hour ago, Bodie said:

I got 99 problems, and 1B arm strength ain't one of them!

I'll take a statue at 1B if he can hoover up the rest of th IFs slightly errant throws. Plenty of 1B lacked (and lack) Meintkeiwitcz's range and Joe Mauer's arm and somehow played to an adequate level.

There is no evidence that France is particularly good at scooping errant throws. He was the lowest rated 1B defensivey last season by Statcast and OAA. The ratings that didn't have him at the bottom had him near the bottom. There is strong consensus he's a bad fielder. Maybe some of that is the injury, but I would bet on Miranda instead.

2 hours ago, arby58 said:

It's pretty rare  that a hitter, in his prime, would go from two seasons where he averaged around 630 plate appearances, a WAR of 3.8, and an OPS+ of over 126 and be entirely washed up two years later (unless injury-related). Health may well have been the primary issue last year. The Twins took a good chance, and it may well pay off. 

It's probably somewhat rare to fall off the cliff for two consecutive years at age 28, but when it does happen I do wonder how often said hitter bounces back to be productive again?  My fear is "rarely".  I'm struggling to come up with an example of someone who did it.  Hopefully France can, because other than a potentially good bat he's well below average in every other area (defense, speed, etc).  I would be less concerned if the Twins had a history of cutting bait quickly on these cheap veteran signings when they don't work out.... but the examples of Gallo, Margot, and Farmer do not give me much hope this will happen.

2 minutes ago, arby58 said:

Carlos Santana isn't a perfect comparison, as his decline could be considered age-related, but putting up a 2.5 WAR last year was a pretty exceptional bounce back - maybe the Twins saw something there? Keeping in mind that France's OPS+ was still above 100 in 2023, it is not outside the realm of possibility that 2024 was an injury-related anomaly. 

Agree, Santana had a better than expected year.  But his OPS+ was only a bit better than 2023 (109 vs 101), and a substantial portion of Santana's value was his glove, which France has no chance to replicate.

I guess a possible example of good to bad to good again would be Gary Gaetti, who fell off the cliff at age 30 and was simply a bad hitter (but great glove) for several years.  He then somehow became a productive bat again in his later 30's, including a couple of outstanding seasons at age 36 and 39, long after he left the Twins.  

So, yes, it could happen for France, but I'm hoping, not expecting, and certainly wouldn't bet on it.

Can't look too deep into spring numbers, but it is nice to see since Rocco all but handed him the starting first base job...

When we first signed Ty France, I kind of groaned because I saw an opportunity for young players the Twins had signed and cultivated throughout their ascension to the major league roster getting squeezed.  Rocco spoke like France has already won the position on past reputation alone, and I was frustrated by that.

But I have to acknowledge that all Ty France has done since he got to camp is crush the ball.  He's not hitting what he is because he's blooping a few in.  He's mashing!  Now, I fully don't expect anything near a 1.517 OPS in the regular season.  And he's unquestionably BAD at 1B.  But as a 1B/DH/PH option if he's able to finish with an OPS between .750-.800 is nothing to sneeze at.  

The Twins still have young options starting with Jose Miranda.  I wouldn't give up on Miranda.  Luke Keaschall has been mentioned as a 1B option and I still have a strong opinion Trevor Larnach should be taking hundreds of throws and groundballs on a back field somewhere at 1B because if Larnach continues to trend upward with his hitting and E-Rod and Jenkins aren't too far away (and just from a defensive standpoint, Keirsey, if he hits at St. Paul should get a legit opportunity SOMETIME)!!  I don't want to be FORCED to trade Larnach if he becomes the hitter he's capable of being.  

I must salute Ty France for coming to camp and with his bat, loudly and consistently making it clear he's making the team.  I hope he has a good year from start to finish.  He may only be here one year, but with the young hitting prospects we have that may be all we need him for.  

5 hours ago, Post-Concussive Blues said:

I’m all aboard the Ty France train!

This sums up my hopes for this season XD 

It's very easy to ignore Ty France's hot start (small sample, hitting against minor leaguers, hitters are supposed to be ahead of pitchers, etc), but it doesn't mean that he hasn't found his swing again. I wasn't a fan of the signing, and I especially didn't like how he seemed to have been handed the starting job before spring training even started.

But fair play to him, he's gone out and done what he needs to do to show the possibility of a rebounding Ty France. I have concerns about his defense; he's never shown a lot there, although he seems to be pretty good at digging out throws in the dirt, which would be a benefit for this team. And maybe his range improves with a fully healed heel. But anyone who thinks he's going to be a plus defender will be disappointed. I'm hoping for average, and won't be surprised if he's well below that.

What gives me the most skepticism about his hot start and prospects with this team is his 2023 season. He really fell off from his earlier success in that season, with a bad drop-off in power. If he hadn't crowded the plate effectively (league high 34 HBP) it would have been a pretty poor offensive performance...and would have looked a lot like 2024. Last season he had a real injury that he battled through. What happened in 2023?

I hope everything I feared about France when he signed is wrong. The good spring training is a fine start, but there are still plenty of questions to be answered if he wants to show he's earned the job and not been handed it on scholarship due to "veteran" status.

5 minutes ago, jmlease1 said:

It's very easy to ignore Ty France's hot start (small sample, hitting against minor leaguers, hitters are supposed to be ahead of pitchers, etc), but it doesn't mean that he hasn't found his swing again. I wasn't a fan of the signing, and I especially didn't like how he seemed to have been handed the starting job before spring training even started.

But fair play to him, he's gone out and done what he needs to do to show the possibility of a rebounding Ty France. I have concerns about his defense; he's never shown a lot there, although he seems to be pretty good at digging out throws in the dirt, which would be a benefit for this team. And maybe his range improves with a fully healed heel. But anyone who thinks he's going to be a plus defender will be disappointed. I'm hoping for average, and won't be surprised if he's well below that.

What gives me the most skepticism about his hot start and prospects with this team is his 2023 season. He really fell off from his earlier success in that season, with a bad drop-off in power. If he hadn't crowded the plate effectively (league high 34 HBP) it would have been a pretty poor offensive performance...and would have looked a lot like 2024. Last season he had a real injury that he battled through. What happened in 2023?

I hope everything I feared about France when he signed is wrong. The good spring training is a fine start, but there are still plenty of questions to be answered if he wants to show he's earned the job and not been handed it on scholarship due to "veteran" status.

IF  you are going to worry about that then yuu had  better be just as fearful of Lewis' collapse at the end of last season.

2 hours ago, arby58 said:

I know Joey Gallo was everybody's favorite whipping boy in 2023, but some of the criticism of the front office for hanging with him strikes me as unfair. First, he was their most impactful hitter early in the season - he had an OPS over 1.000 for the first month of the season. He still was generally over .800 through the middle of June, and was over .800 as late as the beginning of July. He was in the .700s through the rest of the year. That doesn't sound like a player you 'quick hook.' His OPS+ for the year was 100 (i.e., league average), and his WAR for the year was 0.5 - above that of a replacement player. Yes, he struck out a lot, but he also led the Twins in HRs. I'm not saying he was great, or even good, but he was also not Margot.

Yeah, he was worse.

And proof that WAR is meaningless.  Anyone with a pair of eyes (and an iron stomach) could watch and tell you he was a one dimensional player who FAR too often didn't display even that one dimension. 

Now let us never speak of this "Gallo" ever again...