Ride the Bullpen: Twins Set to Embrace Tampa's Successful Pitching Strategy

[Nick Nelson]

One year after the starting rotation was their defining strength, the 2024 Minnesota Twins may find that the way to get the most out of their starters is to rely on them less.

Image courtesy of Erik Williams-USA TODAY Sports

The visionary pitch for Minnesota's front office, the grand formula for sustainable success, was always this: Tampa Bay North, but with more resources. The Twins' baseball ops department has been massively overhauled and built out during Derek Falvey's tenure, in an effort to keep pace with the league's best in operational excellence.

Meanwhile, Falvey has also been given the financial flexibility to take some big swings that might not be possible in Tampa, or at his former organization in Cleveland--for instance, signing Carlos Correa to nine-digit deals in consecutive offseasons. 

Even if the Twins have more budgetary freedom than Tampa and Cleveland, clearly, it's not infinite, and they are feeling the crunch this offseason. With Correa's salary now accounting for more than a quarter of available payroll (per self-imposed restrictions), the Twins are challenged to maintain their pitching edge on a tight budget. 

This means that re-signing Sonny Gray was never a viable option. Nor was shopping in free agency to replace him. With the start of camp upon us, optimism that a major rotation addition will come via trade is waning. 

Unable to meaningfully offset their losses in the starting corps, the front office has conspicuously shifted its focus to stacking up bullpen depth this offseason. The recent Nick Gordon trade, which returned 32-year-old lefty Steven Okert, is just the latest in a long line of moves adding experienced depth to Minnesota's reliever pool, both on the 40-man roster and beyond it. Trades, major-league signings, minor-league signings, waiver claims: the front office has used every avenue to compile an impressive quantity of capable arms, adding onto what was a very effective unit by year's end in 2023.

As a result, their bullpen projects as the best in the league. Preseason projections are only worth so much, but on paper, this looks like a new defining strength for the Twins. After watching relievers play such a pivotal role in the team's postseason success last October, that's not such a hard thing to believe.

The Twins appear poised to lean into this strength, embracing a "quality innings are quality innings" mindset and a bullpen-heavy strategy, not unlike the one Tampa deployed successfully last year. The Rays led the American League in pitching fWAR and won 99 games while getting fewer innings from their starters than all but two AL teams. They relied on a deep, dependable bullpen to carry the load, and it worked out brilliantly for them. 

Zach Eflin led all Rays starters in 2023 with 178 innings pitched. No one else threw more than 120. I wouldn't expect the Twins to be quite that extreme this year, but it wouldn't shock me if the distribution is similar, with Pablo López the only starter routinely given the freedom to pitch past the fifth or sixth. For varying and overlapping reasons (health and effectiveness), it makes sense to use relatively quick hooks with the likes of Chris Paddack, Joe Ryan, Bailey Ober and Anthony DeSclafani. A well-stocked bullpen makes this possible, and even advisable.

You might respond by saying, "Didn't we try this in 2022? That didn't work." Which is fair! But as I wrote at the time, it wasn't so much the premise that failed the Twins as the pieces they used to put it into practice. The team's Opening Day rotation in 2022 included Chris Archer and Dylan Bundy. The bullpen included Tyler Duffey, Emilio Pagán (bad version), Joe Smith, Jharel Cotton and Jhon Romero -- players who are all gone and mostly out of the league two years later. Perhaps the strategy wasn't bad; it's just that the players were. The Twins are much stronger in both departments from the jump this season.

In dissecting the 2022 pitching experiment, I concluded that it suffered from four fatal flaws:

• The starters weren't good enough, or healthy enough, even in shortened starts.
• You've got to have at least one starter who can be the workhorse.
• Their bullpen wasn't built adequately to handle the burden.
• Losing your pitching coach mid-season doesn't help.

As I look back at that list now, I find myself mentally checking those boxes for this year's team, with Pete Maki at the helm. It's a roster that is far more equipped to execute on the bullpen-forward strategy that helped the Rays thrive last year. 

Of course, this all depends on the relief corps actually coming together and performing like the Twins hope they will. That's a volatile proposition. I also believe they are leaving themselves too little margin for error in the rotation if they don't add another starter. But in general, as the vision for pitching success in 2024 comes into focus, I find it's one I can get behind, now that they actually have the personnel to see it through.

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[jaydanger37]

Great analysis. Thanks for sharing! I hope it works better this time around, and I think that with the bullpen arms we have this year, we can pull it off for the regular season. I do hope they get another solid workhorse, though. If they don't get someone before the season starts, they should definitely look for a trade partner mid-season if they are in serious contention. Having solid starting pitching in the playoffs is an absolute must in my book. 

[hitterscount]

Watched Craig Counsell deploy this strategy with Milwaukee for years. By late season the BP was gassed and unreliable. Hader couldn't get an out. Hate watching a strong starting performance end in the 4th-5th inning.  

[Dman]

Pretty much everyone one on this site for several years has been asking for a stronger pen and it looks like the Twins are finally listening.  This FO never believed in investing much in the pen and even now the money allocated there is low, but the depth is unlike anything we have seen before IMO.  Seems to me this should really help the entire team take a step forward.  It is a long season and arms wear down so I bet they use that depth.  I am happy with what they have done so far.

[CRF]

No doubt a strong pen is vital to the success of any team, but you can't burn the pen up over the course of the season. You STILL need starting pitching, and you need them for more than 4-5 innings per game over the course of the season too. 

[chpettit19]

I am not looking forward to another season of "Rocco is the worst, leave your starters in!" talk on 75% of game threads or recaps. I'd think the plan/hope is for Pablo to get 180+ innings, and Ryan and Ober to get 150+. The quick hook plan seems like a good strategy for Paddack and the #5 slot in the rotation. I'm sure there will be games where Ryan and Ober get a quick hook as well, and it's probably smart considering how far past his career max inning total Ober went last year and the fact that Ryan has seen a significant performance dip in the 2nd half each of the last 2 years (yes, I know he had the groin thing last year, but he didn't have it in 2022).

So I'd guess Pablo is free to go as far as he can basically every time out (based on 2024 standards, so not suggesting a bunch of complete games), Ryan and Ober will be a combo of some quick hooks to save their arms and some extra leash when they've really got it, and Paddack and the #5 spot will be more quick hook than deep starts due to his lack of innings the last few years and to save the #5 starter from seeing a lineup a 3rd time.

[nicksaviking]

I think the bullpen will be really good, but I'm confused by all the national plaudits. The relief corp is made up of a bunch of 30+ year olds who are somehow still arbitration eligible. Which is very handy obviously, but it also means there's very little track record for most of these guys.

It's like the Twins said, "You know who's been under-the-radar good for us? Caleb Thielbar. Let's get more late bloomers like him."

Which I'm completely on board with, but there's only one reliever that the rest of the league actually knows by name, so the accolades seem kind of odd.

[tony&rodney]

Hmmm. Nick you do a really good job of supporting your point and I can see how one might see the additions this offseason to the relief corps as leading to a possible strategy change. However, I don't know about that and don't see it. From high school through any other leagues, teams use what ever combination of pitchers helps them to get the most outs. The major leagues have a cost-benefit concern which can impact how a team uses its available pitchers in addition to the limitations of talent within a system. The Twins had an offseason where the team took a step back on spending as did a few other teams. Relief pitchers were inexpensive to add. Does this necessarily effect how the team proceeds toward a goal of winning games?

I think Seattle and Minnesota are similar to some extent. Each team has built strong bullpens that should make life difficult for teams to score runs. Seattle has the more heralded starting staff but Minnesota has a strong unit as well, perhaps just a notch behind the Mariners crew. Either way, the best pitchers on each team are the starting pitchers. The way to win the most games is to use your best pitchers to an optimum level to get the most outs. It would be unusual if the Twins or Mariners with their staffs were to restrict their starters from going deep into games when they are effective at gaining outs with relative ease. All of Lopez, Ryan, Ober, and Varland are capable of throwing 180 innings. Naturally, health is always a concern but this is true in the February workouts as well. Witness Verlander feeling a little punk right now. 

Neither Sonny Gray nor Kenta Maeda were particularly known as pitchers who would throw a pile of innings on a consistent basis from year to year. I would suggest that the Twins have great depth in the relief corps which should help the team avoid times when healthy bullpen options are limited. I fully expect the Twins to use their starters as much as last year if their health and effectiveness holds, which i speculate it will. The depth in the bullpen should protect from reliever burnouts later in the year. 

[Matt Braun]

And I think the pivot into this direction has less to do with copying the Rays, but, rather, seeing the dearth of quality starting pitching available, and deciding mashing together frames like a Frankenstein's monster pitching staff is way smarter than handing almost $20 million a year to Lucas Giolito.

[Doctor Gast]

For years they've tried to copy TB as far as their innings of short RPs. The problem was we didn't have the arms & the BP quickly burned out which then quickly put stress on rotation to be overstretched resulting in injuries & ineffectiveness for 1/2 the season going into the postseason doomed to fail. Years past FO would pick a reliever (Colume, Pagan & J Lopez) with the intention of showcasing them as the "closer". All of them could not handle the role even though constant persistence in doing so. This year our high leverage RPs are in place so there's no doubt there.

Last season we had no major injuries in the rotation but both Ryan & Ober hit a wall at the end of the season. This season if they dial back on them it will definitely help their effectiveness. Paddack & especially DeSclafani need a lot of help not to mention Varland, SWR, Festa, or any other SP that comes up to replace them. 

For many years there has been famine in the BP but this year it has been an overabundance. We have a large influx of RPS to where it blocks some of our very capable in-house players much like Santana will limit the playing time & spot for Kiriloff & Miranda. I think that they think that quantity makes up for lack of quality this of off-season. I'd prefer the right number of RPs instead of famine or feast. BPs are volatile, yet it should be enough to get our rotation through the regular season in good shape but will our rotation be able to compete in the postseason?

[Karbo]

10 minutes ago, nicksaviking said:

I think the bullpen will be really good, but I'm confused by all the national plaudits. The relief corp is made up of a bunch of 30+ year olds who are somehow still arbitration eligible. Which is very handy obviously, but it also means there's very little track record for most of these guys.

It's like the Twins said, "You know who's been under-the-radar good for us? Caleb Thielbar. Let's get more late bloomers like him."

Which I'm completely on board with, but there's only one reliever that the rest of the league actually knows by name, so the accolades seem kind of odd.

I've been thinking the same thing. Older relievers with small track records of success.

[Cory Engelhardt]

This article is really going to look GREAT after they do add a playoff level starter.

 

But it's good to have a good bullpen

[Rod Carews Birthday]

It would seem that this year’s bullpen is designed to equal last year’s starters, and hopefully in effect make this year’s starters equal to last years starters.  I like it.  Investing in a bunch of expensive starting pitching was never going to happen this year, so this looks to be a very plausible workaround to me.  Not every one of these relievers is likely to be lights out, but there are plenty of solid arms to choose from rather than the default “you have arms and your heart is beating, take the mound!” approach from some previous years.  It made a person wonder if guys like Gordon, Astidillo and Wallner couldn’t have made the team out of the bullpen!  Now if we can start off the season actually hitting the ball (unlike last year), we could be in pretty good shape.  

[pierre75275]

The bullpen looks like it will be really good.

I feel like if they can find a way to sign Snell or Montgomery (deferred money, short term optouts, etc) this team would be damn dangerous in the playoffs 

[jorgenswest]

1 hour ago, Nick Nelson said:

You might respond by saying, "Didn't we try this in 2022? That didn't work." Which is fair! But as I wrote at the time, it wasn't so much the premise that failed the Twins as the pieces they used to put it into practice. The team's Opening Day rotation in 2022 included Chris Archer and Dylan Bundy. The bullpen included Tyler Duffey, Emilio Pagán (bad version), Joe Smith, Jharel Cotton and Jhon Romero -- players who are all gone and mostly out of the league two years later. Perhaps the strategy wasn't bad; it's just that the players were. The Twins are much stronger in both departments from the jump this season.

Any chance we are saying the same thing about Justin Topa, Steven Okert, Jay Jackson, Brock Stewart and Josh Staumont two years from now? They are in their 30s and none has a sustained track record of success or health. I guess you could add Caleb Thielbar to the list also. 

The best chance for sustained strength in the pen this year and two years down the road would be the emergence of Funderburk and Canterino as late game options.

[IndianaTwin]

I'm not doubting that Tampa Bay had a great bullpen and used it effectively, but I'm not convinced by the stats that this was their intention.

The reason they only had one starter over 120 innings is that Glasnow and McClanahan only made 21 starts each due to injury. Give them another 10 starts like Eflin had, and they are also in the 160-180 inning range The three of them averaged 5.6 innings in the games they did start, not a particularly unusual number.

Additionally, a key reason they were low in the innings per start category as a team is that they used an Opener quite a bit. All you have to do is take out the 14 games started by Jalen Beeks and Shawn Armstrong, where they went a total of 26.2 innings and their 4.8 innings per start becomes more than 5.1. It looks like they had other guys who were used as Openers on occasion as well.

As to the Twins, Lopez threw 194 innings and Ryan and Ober were each over 160 last year, if you count Ober's minor league starts. If they are healthy, there's no reason to think they won't match those. If you're saying that it's good to have a strong bullpen in case your Nos. 4 and 5 starters don't go as long as the top three guys, that doesn't seem particularly novel.   

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

Lets be realistic,  most of these aren't quick hook situations,  sometimes, but most cases the pitchers have been inefficient and counts are getting into the 80's, 90's 100's.  Now if a pitcher is laboring I have no concerns going to a pen even in the 5th or 6th inning.  Yes if they can go 6 most games great.  

If, and its a bit of an if, but if Desclafani and Paddack are healthy and give you 130 to 150 innings of either solid or very good innings,  between the SP and bullpen this team is set up very well on the pitching side.  Varland is your back up.  Then we see between Winder, Festa, SWR, Dobnack, Canterino, I think there is enough depth.  They are still looking for 1 more pitcher to sign to AAA or big league level.   

As to the bullpen, if someone is struggling we don't have to keep throwing them out like we have in previous years.  We can send someone down or put them on the IL.  We have options galore. I am really looking forward to this season.   

[Nashvilletwin]

Thanks Nick - super article.

Yes, I’ve been one of those quite vocal on the TD about the Twins pursuing this type of strategy for years. The reasons just seemed so obvious:

1. The game has changed - starters, with a few exceptions, just don’t rack up innings anymore. There are lots of reasons for this (protecting expensive arms, wanting to play matchups, etc.); however, for virtually all teams there are just are more reliever innings to cover.

2. While starters are throwing fewer innings, their price has continued to skyrocket. Their $/IP has been going up, so the inverse, production/$ has been going down. Yes, production/$ matters to many teams, including our beloved Twins. If innings  are innings (as Nick wrote), why pay more for an out?

3. Even if you are willing to pay more for an out, there is enough depth in today’s world of pitching that a fresh arm coming in, often matched up to the opposing team’s lineup, has a higher likelihood of getting outs than starter facing that lineup for a third or fourth time (with familiarity and fatigue being the biggest issues). The data supports this.

4. Speaking of fatigue, a deep, reliable pen actually allows a manager to keep his starters more fresh through the course of a season. The higher relative cost of starters, in addition to true starter depth being possibly the hardest thing to have on a team, makes late season starter freshness incredible important.

5. Reliever depth, on the margin, is much easier to come by, and, with some exceptions of course, much cheaper.  Several high leverage mainstays are critical and hard to find; however, the pool of potential candidates who can reasonably (again, production/$) be expected to get three outs in the middle innings when matched up attractively is pretty high. Yes, bullpens can wear down too - but their depth is easier to replace and the marginal cost of a worn out reliever (expected to throw one inning) is way less than that of a starter.

6. Is there anything more psychologically challenging to an opposing team than knowing that, if they don’t have the lead headed into the 7th, they very likely have little chance of winning?  The Astros employ this psych ops very effectively. Oh, and it works the other way as well: your starters feel a lot better (i.e. maybe pitch better) knowing the support they have coming behind them.

This year is our best opportunity to see the true value of this strategy: our payroll is down and we have pen (on paper) with both solid high leverage performers coupled with solid deep (12+ options) depth. I for one am eager to see the results.
 

[jimbo92107]

1 hour ago, Dman said:

Pretty much everyone one on this site for several years has been asking for a stronger pen and it looks like the Twins are finally listening.  This FO never believed in investing much in the pen and even now the money allocated there is low, but the depth is unlike anything we have seen before IMO.  Seems to me this should really help the entire team take a step forward.  It is a long season and arms wear down so I bet they use that depth.  I am happy with what they have done so far.

Is the front office actually listening, or are we simply watching an extended salvage effort? How many of these relievers were intended to be starters before something broke and they missed a season with injury? 

[LA Vikes Fan]

1 hour ago, Matt Braun said:

And I think the pivot into this direction has less to do with copying the Rays, but, rather, seeing the dearth of quality starting pitching available, and deciding mashing together frames like a Frankenstein's monster pitching staff is way smarter than handing almost $20 million a year to Lucas Giolito.

Agreed. There just wasn't much on the SP FA market and the prices a very inflated. Heck, Sonny Gray got 75M over three years guaranteed at age 34. Building out the bullpen is a smart pivot for a team short on starting pitching. 

I don't think we're looing at a lot of 4-5 inning starting, but we are looking at starts where guys are pulled at the first sign of trouble after the 5th except for Lopez. That's ok by me. 

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

1 hour ago, jimbo92107 said:

Is the front office actually listening, or are we simply watching an extended salvage effort? How many of these relievers were intended to be starters before something broke and they missed a season with injury? 

Stewart, breakout last year with us

Topa breakout last year with new pitch

Jackson - great era last year, but the peripheral numbers show may be aberration

Staumont - great arm, questionable control, questionable health

Okert solid lefty the last 4 years,  numbers slightly up last year

If 3-4 are solid from this group will have a great bullpen. 

You then have Weiss (see if we keep him) , Balazovic, Boushley, boyle, Duarte, Henriquez, Jensen, Lawyerson, Shulfer, Moran.  All with decent arms and see if something clicks this year.  Of that group I would say at least 1 or 2 will flash in the Twins system and you will find something usable.  

Lastly you have Canterino.  I have a feeling he is going to perform very well.  The question is he a SP or a RP.  

[Rosterman]

Can the Twins get a solid 30 starts out of Lopez, Ryan, Ober. 150+ innings for sure. That will be the key.

They can live with fewer innings from Paddack, perhaps...and even DeSclafani. But would that result be moving either to the pen and also having the free 26-man roster spot to cycle thru Varland, Woods Richardson, Headrick or perhaps someone not on th Vare 40-man?

If you can't get 5 innings from a starter, who is the long guy? Winder, Balazovic, Sands, Alcala, Headrick were the only guys that really threw significant multiple inning stints last season, and all seem bound for St. Paul. 

Okert is a nice addition, but he seems a situational lefty. I had hoped Jax, as a starter prospect, could be a multi-inning guy, but he tends to be a one inning stopper now (as long as no one is on base). But besides having a pen with ALL guys with ERAs south of 4.00 this season, there is promise of shuffling with St. Paul with a couple of names of promise: Weiss, Jensen, Duarte, Bowman, Harris, Alexy and moe...but they are NOT on the 40-man (or Weiss is holding that "swing spot" right now).

Barring a major injury to the Big Three in the rotation, the Twins are sitting pretty good in pitching land!

[Jocko87]

If we look at it from the regular season standpoint, they have to figure out about 1500 quality innings.  It's always useful to look at full numbers with percentages for context.  If Pablo is 12% (180) of our pitching with Ryan and Ober at 10%(150), other starters around 25%(375/3=125could be 375/6 or 7) that's about 855 innings or 57% of the pitching.  I'll assign 3% or 45 innings to blow out or position player pitching to make the math easy.

That leave 40% of the innings for the bullpen.  850 innings is about 5.2 innings a start which would be delightful.  40% bullpen innings represents a good outcome from the starters.  40% of the total pitching need is still a huge number.  Given the relative prices of starting vs relief pitching its a no brainer to stock the pen, especially to get through the regular season grind.  Having a Duran allows them to use the volume approach rather than the Hader/Diaz approach.  The moves made have each brought the floor higher with options to keep everyone fresh. It's a great strategy. 

Speaking of keeping them fresh, 40% of innings being a lot, having several solid inning eaters will be a key.  Go ahead and mostly use up a Jay Jackson in the regular season, just don't burn Duran.  An improved offense can take a ton of stress off the key guys so they aren't burned early.

The postseason roster construction is completely different as they will focus on the 3-4 best guys.  Maybe a Varland enters the mix.  The depth is for getting the 3-4 guys to the postseason fresh. 

The quality innings are quality innings approach is the correct way to look at it.  Where the innings come from is going to change every year with your roster.

[Craig Arko]

If the plan is to use the bullpen to give a couple of starters (Paddack, DeSclafani) a break on innings pitched, they would be smart in not starting those pitchers consecutively. That is, don’t force long bullpen days without a day off in between.

[DocBauer]

Nothing wrong with having a stronger and deeper bullpen, regardless of your rotation quality. There's the old adage of needing to find 2 quality rotation arms, so you'd better have like 6 or 7 to begin with to find those 2. Right now the Twins have like 16 or more to work with. And the ones being mostly written in to the pen are coming off good seasons, just forgetting age or long term career history. 

I don't know that building a better, deeper pen is necessarily part of any new strategy in regard to the rotation or copying anyone else, it's just good sense. But, no question the rotation might be down a few IP this year, and that better, deeper pen certainly helps. 

Lopez, Ober, and Ryan should be expected to pretty much do what they did last season, maybe even a little better, innings wise. I'd like to think Paddack will adequately replace Maeda's innings, and perhaps provide more. The question is how close can someone like DeSclafini come to Gray's 180 IP? Can he give 120-130? If so, that's another 50-60 to be picked up by the entirely of the staff. That's something like a third of an inning per game over the course of a season. Now, there's a difference between quality innings and total innings to be sure. And I'm not saying Paddack or DeSclafini is going to replace the quality that Gray provided. But if they pitch reasonably well and don't completely stink, they certainly don't have to replace all the starter innings lost. So what I'm saying is I don't see some new, secret strategy where the pen is being deepened to replace Gray and/or Maeda per se. I'm just seeing an attempt to have a better pen to win more game, and lose less games, and cover a few of those lost innings as well. But we're not talking some new opener type of strategy. 

But hey, I'm loving the attempt to build a deeper and better pen!

[Schmoeman5]

Tampa pitching had the the 3rd fewest innings in the AL led by Eflin not by choice but because of season ending injuries to Springs and Rasmussen and several IL stints for McClanahan and Glasnow. The fact they could fill those holes and still win 99 games can be attributed as much to the depth they have at starting pitching as to the bullpen. They just keep loading up on big arms. That's what all teams are trying to emulate. It just seems Tampa does it better than most.

[LA Vikes Fan]

2 hours ago, Jocko87 said:

If we look at it from the regular season standpoint, they have to figure out about 1500 quality innings.  It's always useful to look at full numbers with percentages for context.  If Pablo is 12% (180) of our pitching with Ryan and Ober at 10%(150), other starters around 25%(375/3=125could be 375/6 or 7) that's about 855 innings or 57% of the pitching.  I'll assign 3% or 45 innings to blow out or position player pitching to make the math easy.

That leave 40% of the innings for the bullpen.  850 innings is about 5.2 innings a start which would be delightful.  40% bullpen innings represents a good outcome from the starters.  40% of the total pitching need is still a huge number.  Given the relative prices of starting vs relief pitching its a no brainer to stock the pen, especially to get through the regular season grind.  Having a Duran allows them to use the volume approach rather than the Hader/Diaz approach.  The moves made have each brought the floor higher with options to keep everyone fresh. It's a great strategy. 

Speaking of keeping them fresh, 40% of innings being a lot, having several solid inning eaters will be a key.  Go ahead and mostly use up a Jay Jackson in the regular season, just don't burn Duran.  An improved offense can take a ton of stress off the key guys so they aren't burned early.

The postseason roster construction is completely different as they will focus on the 3-4 best guys.  Maybe a Varland enters the mix.  The depth is for getting the 3-4 guys to the postseason fresh. 

The quality innings are quality innings approach is the correct way to look at it.  Where the innings come from is going to change every year with your roster.

This makes a lot of sense to me. Assume we get 180 innings from Lopez and a combined 300 innings from Ryan and Ober. We need 375-400 inning from a combination of Paddack, DeSclafani and ...... at least 2 more guys. That's why you can't make Varland a reliever.  We will need a minimum of 75 innings from him starting at the MLB level and that's if we get 300 from Paddack and DeSclafani. The latter seems highly unlikely.  It seems a whole lot more likely that we'll get 200 or so MLB starting innings from Paddack and DeSclafani, will need 120 or so from Varland, and another 50-75 from a combination of SWR, Canterino, Dobnak, or whatever other young guys show at AAA (Festa?), or whatever flotsam and jetsam we sign and stash at AAA. 

So to me, that's why Varland HAS to stay as a starter who begins the year in AAA (since we can't send DeSclafani there), AND we can and should sign another MLB guy like Lorenzen or even Thor, or one  who will take a MiLB contract with an opt out like Odorizzi, Jamie Barria, or even Danny Duffy. We're going to need them.   

[harmony55]

WAR is not a great measure for relievers, but last year the Seattle Mariners ranked sixth in bullpen fWAR with 5.7 in 548 innings while the Twins ranked 21st with 3.2 in 556.1 innings:

https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders/major-league?pos=all&lg=all&qual=0&type=8&season=2023&month=0&season1=2023&ind=0&team=0%2Cts&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&stats=rel&sortcol=20&sortdir=default&pagenum=1

Nevertheless the FanGraphs Depth Charts project the Twins bullpen second in 2024 WAR with 4.7 in 560 innings while projecting the Mariner bullpen 12th with 3.2 in 547 innings:

https://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?position=RP

Blame it on Justin Topa.😁

[Hubie29]

I guess I am missing something. We have Duran, Jax and possibly Stewart. Then we have Jackson, Okert, Funderburk, Thielbar, Topa, Alcala, Winder, and Varland.  The first 3 are solid, after that we have washed up, unproven, and prospect. FAR from a reliable, solid bull pen. We added noone of substance or high quality. Where is the improvement?

[DocBauer]

5 hours ago, Hubie29 said:

I guess I am missing something. We have Duran, Jax and possibly Stewart. Then we have Jackson, Okert, Funderburk, Thielbar, Topa, Alcala, Winder, and Varland.  The first 3 are solid, after that we have washed up, unproven, and prospect. FAR from a reliable, solid bull pen. We added noone of substance or high quality. Where is the improvement?

I think, understably so, you are confused with NAMES and $M amount spent on the pen. No, the Twins didn't spend $12/13M on Hader. 

But think a moment on Liam Hendricks. He just never made it as a SP. After years of bouncing around, he suddenly turned in to a tremendous RP reaching 30yo. Our own Stewart was, in a previous baseball life, a pretty high prospect. But injuries and such held him back. PLEASE go and read the recent BLOG from Adam Nelson about Stewart. And he's suddenly a tremendous piece of our pen. Thielbar was a throw away arm until re-invented as a BP arm. Jax is the same, despite being a pretty high draft choice initially. 

Jay Jackson went to Japan to re-invent himself. Why he isn't more well regarded is a mystery to me as his numbers the past 3yrs are very good, despite limited IP. 

Okert has 3 really solid seasons behind him, with good K numbers. His ERA in 2023 was higher than his previous years, but all the peripherals are generally solid.

Topa is a mystery. At 31yo he seemed to finally get it together and made himself viable. Much like Stewart. So he's a throw away even thought his path is similar to Stewart? He had a great 2023 for one of the best staffs in 2023. Don't sell him short.

Staumont, if indeed fully healthy and ready to go, is a legitimate 7th-8th inning arm. POTENTIALLY,  he and Stewart are so good Jax might slide down a notch. 

And the Twins have depth if someone craps out. Which is most important. 

Someone will get hurt, or not perform, because that's just baseball. But the depth right now is pretty damn good despite $ spent.