Ride the Bullpen: Twins Set to Embrace Tampa's Successful Pitching Strategy

Watched Craig Counsell deploy this strategy with Milwaukee for years. By late season the BP was gassed and unreliable. Hader couldn't get an out. Hate watching a strong starting performance end in the 4th-5th inning.  

No doubt a strong pen is vital to the success of any team, but you can't burn the pen up over the course of the season. You STILL need starting pitching, and you need them for more than 4-5 innings per game over the course of the season too. 

Hmmm. Nick you do a really good job of supporting your point and I can see how one might see the additions this offseason to the relief corps as leading to a possible strategy change. However, I don't know about that and don't see it. From high school through any other leagues, teams use what ever combination of pitchers helps them to get the most outs. The major leagues have a cost-benefit concern which can impact how a team uses its available pitchers in addition to the limitations of talent within a system. The Twins had an offseason where the team took a step back on spending as did a few other teams. Relief pitchers were inexpensive to add. Does this necessarily effect how the team proceeds toward a goal of winning games?

I think Seattle and Minnesota are similar to some extent. Each team has built strong bullpens that should make life difficult for teams to score runs. Seattle has the more heralded starting staff but Minnesota has a strong unit as well, perhaps just a notch behind the Mariners crew. Either way, the best pitchers on each team are the starting pitchers. The way to win the most games is to use your best pitchers to an optimum level to get the most outs. It would be unusual if the Twins or Mariners with their staffs were to restrict their starters from going deep into games when they are effective at gaining outs with relative ease. All of Lopez, Ryan, Ober, and Varland are capable of throwing 180 innings. Naturally, health is always a concern but this is true in the February workouts as well. Witness Verlander feeling a little punk right now. 

Neither Sonny Gray nor Kenta Maeda were particularly known as pitchers who would throw a pile of innings on a consistent basis from year to year. I would suggest that the Twins have great depth in the relief corps which should help the team avoid times when healthy bullpen options are limited. I fully expect the Twins to use their starters as much as last year if their health and effectiveness holds, which i speculate it will. The depth in the bullpen should protect from reliever burnouts later in the year. 

For years they've tried to copy TB as far as their innings of short RPs. The problem was we didn't have the arms & the BP quickly burned out which then quickly put stress on rotation to be overstretched resulting in injuries & ineffectiveness for 1/2 the season going into the postseason doomed to fail. Years past FO would pick a reliever (Colume, Pagan & J Lopez) with the intention of showcasing them as the "closer". All of them could not handle the role even though constant persistence in doing so. This year our high leverage RPs are in place so there's no doubt there.

Last season we had no major injuries in the rotation but both Ryan & Ober hit a wall at the end of the season. This season if they dial back on them it will definitely help their effectiveness. Paddack & especially DeSclafani need a lot of help not to mention Varland, SWR, Festa, or any other SP that comes up to replace them. 

For many years there has been famine in the BP but this year it has been an overabundance. We have a large influx of RPS to where it blocks some of our very capable in-house players much like Santana will limit the playing time & spot for Kiriloff & Miranda. I think that they think that quantity makes up for lack of quality this of off-season. I'd prefer the right number of RPs instead of famine or feast. BPs are volatile, yet it should be enough to get our rotation through the regular season in good shape but will our rotation be able to compete in the postseason?

The bullpen looks like it will be really good.

I feel like if they can find a way to sign Snell or Montgomery (deferred money, short term optouts, etc) this team would be damn dangerous in the playoffs 

1 hour ago, Nick Nelson said:

You might respond by saying, "Didn't we try this in 2022? That didn't work." Which is fair! But as I wrote at the time, it wasn't so much the premise that failed the Twins as the pieces they used to put it into practice. The team's Opening Day rotation in 2022 included Chris Archer and Dylan Bundy. The bullpen included Tyler Duffey, Emilio Pagán (bad version), Joe Smith, Jharel Cotton and Jhon Romero -- players who are all gone and mostly out of the league two years later. Perhaps the strategy wasn't bad; it's just that the players were. The Twins are much stronger in both departments from the jump this season.

Any chance we are saying the same thing about Justin Topa, Steven Okert, Jay Jackson, Brock Stewart and Josh Staumont two years from now? They are in their 30s and none has a sustained track record of success or health. I guess you could add Caleb Thielbar to the list also. 

The best chance for sustained strength in the pen this year and two years down the road would be the emergence of Funderburk and Canterino as late game options.

Lets be realistic,  most of these aren't quick hook situations,  sometimes, but most cases the pitchers have been inefficient and counts are getting into the 80's, 90's 100's.  Now if a pitcher is laboring I have no concerns going to a pen even in the 5th or 6th inning.  Yes if they can go 6 most games great.  

If, and its a bit of an if, but if Desclafani and Paddack are healthy and give you 130 to 150 innings of either solid or very good innings,  between the SP and bullpen this team is set up very well on the pitching side.  Varland is your back up.  Then we see between Winder, Festa, SWR, Dobnack, Canterino, I think there is enough depth.  They are still looking for 1 more pitcher to sign to AAA or big league level.   

As to the bullpen, if someone is struggling we don't have to keep throwing them out like we have in previous years.  We can send someone down or put them on the IL.  We have options galore. I am really looking forward to this season.   

Thanks Nick - super article.

Yes, I’ve been one of those quite vocal on the TD about the Twins pursuing this type of strategy for years. The reasons just seemed so obvious:

1. The game has changed - starters, with a few exceptions, just don’t rack up innings anymore. There are lots of reasons for this (protecting expensive arms, wanting to play matchups, etc.); however, for virtually all teams there are just are more reliever innings to cover.

2. While starters are throwing fewer innings, their price has continued to skyrocket. Their $/IP has been going up, so the inverse, production/$ has been going down. Yes, production/$ matters to many teams, including our beloved Twins. If innings  are innings (as Nick wrote), why pay more for an out?

3. Even if you are willing to pay more for an out, there is enough depth in today’s world of pitching that a fresh arm coming in, often matched up to the opposing team’s lineup, has a higher likelihood of getting outs than starter facing that lineup for a third or fourth time (with familiarity and fatigue being the biggest issues). The data supports this.

4. Speaking of fatigue, a deep, reliable pen actually allows a manager to keep his starters more fresh through the course of a season. The higher relative cost of starters, in addition to true starter depth being possibly the hardest thing to have on a team, makes late season starter freshness incredible important.

5. Reliever depth, on the margin, is much easier to come by, and, with some exceptions of course, much cheaper.  Several high leverage mainstays are critical and hard to find; however, the pool of potential candidates who can reasonably (again, production/$) be expected to get three outs in the middle innings when matched up attractively is pretty high. Yes, bullpens can wear down too - but their depth is easier to replace and the marginal cost of a worn out reliever (expected to throw one inning) is way less than that of a starter.

6. Is there anything more psychologically challenging to an opposing team than knowing that, if they don’t have the lead headed into the 7th, they very likely have little chance of winning?  The Astros employ this psych ops very effectively. Oh, and it works the other way as well: your starters feel a lot better (i.e. maybe pitch better) knowing the support they have coming behind them.

This year is our best opportunity to see the true value of this strategy: our payroll is down and we have pen (on paper) with both solid high leverage performers coupled with solid deep (12+ options) depth. I for one am eager to see the results.
 

1 hour ago, Dman said:

Pretty much everyone one on this site for several years has been asking for a stronger pen and it looks like the Twins are finally listening.  This FO never believed in investing much in the pen and even now the money allocated there is low, but the depth is unlike anything we have seen before IMO.  Seems to me this should really help the entire team take a step forward.  It is a long season and arms wear down so I bet they use that depth.  I am happy with what they have done so far.

Is the front office actually listening, or are we simply watching an extended salvage effort? How many of these relievers were intended to be starters before something broke and they missed a season with injury? 

1 hour ago, jimbo92107 said:

Is the front office actually listening, or are we simply watching an extended salvage effort? How many of these relievers were intended to be starters before something broke and they missed a season with injury? 

Stewart, breakout last year with us

Topa breakout last year with new pitch

Jackson - great era last year, but the peripheral numbers show may be aberration

Staumont - great arm, questionable control, questionable health

Okert solid lefty the last 4 years,  numbers slightly up last year

If 3-4 are solid from this group will have a great bullpen. 

You then have Weiss (see if we keep him) , Balazovic, Boushley, boyle, Duarte, Henriquez, Jensen, Lawyerson, Shulfer, Moran.  All with decent arms and see if something clicks this year.  Of that group I would say at least 1 or 2 will flash in the Twins system and you will find something usable.  

Lastly you have Canterino.  I have a feeling he is going to perform very well.  The question is he a SP or a RP.  

Can the Twins get a solid 30 starts out of Lopez, Ryan, Ober. 150+ innings for sure. That will be the key.

They can live with fewer innings from Paddack, perhaps...and even DeSclafani. But would that result be moving either to the pen and also having the free 26-man roster spot to cycle thru Varland, Woods Richardson, Headrick or perhaps someone not on th Vare 40-man?

If you can't get 5 innings from a starter, who is the long guy? Winder, Balazovic, Sands, Alcala, Headrick were the only guys that really threw significant multiple inning stints last season, and all seem bound for St. Paul. 

Okert is a nice addition, but he seems a situational lefty. I had hoped Jax, as a starter prospect, could be a multi-inning guy, but he tends to be a one inning stopper now (as long as no one is on base). But besides having a pen with ALL guys with ERAs south of 4.00 this season, there is promise of shuffling with St. Paul with a couple of names of promise: Weiss, Jensen, Duarte, Bowman, Harris, Alexy and moe...but they are NOT on the 40-man (or Weiss is holding that "swing spot" right now).

Barring a major injury to the Big Three in the rotation, the Twins are sitting pretty good in pitching land!

Tampa pitching had the the 3rd fewest innings in the AL led by Eflin not by choice but because of season ending injuries to Springs and Rasmussen and several IL stints for McClanahan and Glasnow. The fact they could fill those holes and still win 99 games can be attributed as much to the depth they have at starting pitching as to the bullpen. They just keep loading up on big arms. That's what all teams are trying to emulate. It just seems Tampa does it better than most.

WAR is not a great measure for relievers, but last year the Seattle Mariners ranked sixth in bullpen fWAR with 5.7 in 548 innings while the Twins ranked 21st with 3.2 in 556.1 innings:

https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders/major-league?pos=all&lg=all&qual=0&type=8&season=2023&month=0&season1=2023&ind=0&team=0%2Cts&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&stats=rel&sortcol=20&sortdir=default&pagenum=1

Nevertheless the FanGraphs Depth Charts project the Twins bullpen second in 2024 WAR with 4.7 in 560 innings while projecting the Mariner bullpen 12th with 3.2 in 547 innings:

https://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?position=RP

Blame it on Justin Topa.😁

I guess I am missing something. We have Duran, Jax and possibly Stewart. Then we have Jackson, Okert, Funderburk, Thielbar, Topa, Alcala, Winder, and Varland.  The first 3 are solid, after that we have washed up, unproven, and prospect. FAR from a reliable, solid bull pen. We added noone of substance or high quality. Where is the improvement?