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When the dust settled on the 2023 Major League Baseball regular season, the Minnesota Twins had generated 16.5 fWAR from their starting rotation. That was the most in the American League, coming in ahead of the Tampa Bay Rays and trailing only the Philadelphia Phillies across the entire sport. Flipping Luis Arráez for Pablo López during the offseason rounded out a group that should have been expected to be good, and he certainly took them over the top.
Not only was López incredibly productive during his first year with the Twins, but Sonny Gray pitched at a level that warranted Cy Young Award consideration. Joe Ryan had a stellar first half, and Bailey Ober pitched himself back into an indispensable role at the highest level. Kenta Maeda also returned and pitched well after Tommy John surgery, and Louie Varland was a key member as a rotational depth option.
This winter, Minnesota has turned over two-fifths of that rotation. Gray and Maeda are gone, with only López, Ryan, and Ober remaining from the heavy-lifting core. Now fully healthy, Chris Paddack is expected to slide into Maeda’s role. He's hard to depend on much, having thrown just 27 1/3 innings since 2021, but he has flashed significant talent when right. Beyond Paddack, rather than add at the top, Minnesota opted for veteran Anthony DeSclafani to eat innings at the bottom of the rotation hierarchy.
For Paddack, the expectation is pretty straightforward. His inclusion among the group should be expected to rival Maeda's a season ago. It was his arm that the Twins traded Taylor Rogers to the San Diego Padres to get, and knowing the injury risks, they still wanted to be able to unleash him eventually. Before the blowout in 2022, Paddack was Minnesota’s top starter in terms of fWAR, and ZiPS projects him to be worth 1.5 fWAR in 2024. That’s marginally better than Maeda’s 1.3 fWAR projection and precisely equal to what the new Detroit Tigers starter gave Minnesota last year.
The plan to replace Gray’s production never needed to be a one-for-one swap, but the thought process had Minnesota acquiring a number two or three pitcher to add to the group. Someone who could slot in alongside, or ahead of, Ryan would have made sense. The Twins went as conservative as possible, though, dealing for DeSclafani in the Jorge Polanco trade.
Pitching at age 34 this season, it shouldn’t be expected that DeSclafani will completely reinvent the wheel. The Twins need to get something better out of him, though. The last time he was a usable arm came in 2021, which not coincidentally also came with his last clean bill of health. He is projected to provide just under 100 innings and 0.9 fWAR this season. Even with some positive changes, he’s a longshot to pitch like more than fourth starter, and the limits to his abilities are capped by a lack of strikeouts and a propensity to give up the long ball.
The Twins' rotation is projected to tally 14.5 fWAR. That’s a solid number, but it puts considerable pressure on López to be everything he was last year and more. As the unquestioned ace of the staff, it will be on the recently extended arm to dominate for a second season in a row. It wouldn’t be shocking for him to do so, but it’s a need (rather than just a hope) this time around.
Without Gray in the picture, Ryan and Ober also need to take substantial steps forward. Ryan’s 2023 season turned ugly, as his home run problem spiraled out of control. If he can return to 2022 levels or better, then there is a path for a legitimate number-two arm based on his stuff. Ober goes from a depth piece to an integral part, but he's been consistent enough to merit that job. There isn’t much more needed from him to be what Minnesota is hoping for, but it would be unfair to assume he’s also a finished product.
Paddack and DeSclafani are not bad options, in and of themselves. If things break correctly, the group can definitely hold serve. The problem is that having two dice rolls on the back end forces Varland, David Festa, Simeon Woods Richardson, and other prospects to dive into spots where they are immediately relied upon, rather than eased in.
Last year, the Twins gave themselves some ability to withstand unfortunate circumstances should they arise. This time around, they are threading a needle and need to be nearly perfect. It can work, but there’s also a relatively significant probability they are left looking for answers much sooner than they had hoped.
How are you feeling about the Twins rotation entering spring training? Join the conversation below.
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