Projecting the 2024 Minnesota Twins Opening Day Roster: Version 2.0

[Cody Christie]

Spring training begins this week, with Minnesota Twins pitchers and catchers reporting to Fort Myers. Here is how the 26-man roster would shake out if the season started today.

Image courtesy of Jesse Johnson and Katie Stratman, USA Today Sports

It was a slow-moving early offseason for the Twins, before a flurry of moves in recent weeks. The Jorge Polanco trade has the most significant impact on the 2024 roster, but the club has also added a veteran hitter and bullpen pieces. Minnesota is still looking to add another outfield bat, so other changes could still be coming for the team’s Opening Day roster. Here are the names to watch as spring training begins.

Catchers (2): Christian Vázquez, Ryan Jeffers
There was some discussion about trading Vázquez this winter, but it doesn’t seem like something the Twins were ever serious about. Minnesota likes using a two-catcher timeshare, and that plan worked last year, with neither catcher missing time on the injured list. It’s rare for a team to only need two catchers in a season, so the Twins will probably need to rely on more depth in 2024. The Twins added Jair Camargo to the 40-man roster earlier in the offseason, so he’d be the next man up if one of the starters gets injured. 

Infielders (6): Carlos Correa, Kyle Farmer, Alex Kirilloff, Royce Lewis, Edouard Julien, Carlos Santana
The Twins must get a better performance from Correa this year, after he played through plantar fasciitis in 2023. At his best, he’s a superstar, and he needs to return to that level for the club to reach its full potential. Julien is being handed the keys to second base for Opening Day, but top prospect Brooks Lee is waiting in the wings. Kirilloff is among a group of former top prospects who have seen their roles altered because of the Santana signing. After battling numerous injuries, it’s an important year for him to prove he can stay healthy and hit like he did as a prospect. Lewis is looking to build off a tremendous rookie season and has already been touted in some corners as a dark-horse MVP candidate. José Miranda is another name fans should remember in the infield mix, but Santana’s addition pushes him off the roster.

Outfielders (5): Byron Buxton, Max Kepler, Willi Castro, Matt Wallner, Trevor Larnach
The Twins believe Buxton will be able to play center field regularly in 2024, and that’s why the club has yet to add to the outfield group. There is still a possibility for the club to add a right-handed hitting outfielder to provide more depth to the bench, so this is one area where it's unlikely that the group has been finalized. Castro will see time in center field when Buxton needs a reprieve. Kepler’s name surfaced as a trade candidate, but that’s happened for multiple years, and the team has held firm to their high asking price. Wallner will be an intriguing player to watch, and there is hope for him to avoid the sophomore slump. Nick Gordon’s trade to the Marlins opened a bench spot for Larnach, but he would be pushed to Triple-A with another outfield addition. The Twins will also rely on other outfielders on the 40-man roster, like Austin Martin, when the need arises.

Rotation (5): Pablo López, Joe Ryan, Bailey Ober, Chris Paddack, Anthony DeSclafani 
The rotation’s most prominent change has been the addition of the veteran DeSclafani in the Polanco deal. His installation pushes Varland to Triple A to begin the year, which is something the club did with Ober last season, and he ended up pitching over 140 innings for the Twins. When the offseason began, many believed Minnesota would be active on the trade market to acquire a playoff-caliber starter, similar to what the front office did last year with López. Those deals haven’t developed, and the Twins hope Ryan and Ober can take the next steps in their young careers. Behind Varland are other young options like Simeon Woods Richardson, David Festa, and Brent Headrick. All three of those arms are expected to make starts for the Twins in 2024.

Bullpen (8): Jhoan Durán, Griffin Jax, Brock Stewart, Caleb Thielbar, Justin Topa, Jay Jackson, Josh Staumont, Steven Okert
The bullpen has seen the most changes in recent weeks, with the team trading for Topa and signing Jackson. Overall, FanGraphs projects the Twins bullpen to be the best in the American League, a far cry from where this unit was last season. Varland is also a candidate to join this group, but the Twins are committed to him in a starting role at the moment. They don't have enough rotation depth to convert him proactively. Jorge Alcalá and Staumont must prove they are healthy before being given roster spots. Kody Funderburk is also in the bullpen mix, but doesn’t make the Opening Day roster with the addition of Okert in the Gordon trade. Alcalá, Cole Sands, and Josh Winder will make relief appearances this year, but they each have an option remaining, so they will move back and forth from St. Paul. The Twins have also been claiming other relievers and trying to pass them through waivers when the club needs a roster spot. Any of those players could impress in camp and make the team.

How do you feel about the team's depth at multiple positions? What will change with the 26-man roster before Opening Day? Leave a comment and start the discussion.

View full article

[JoeCool]

The Twins really need another arm at the top of the rotation. Without it we will get back to our losing ways in the playoffs.  Also a right handed bat is needed to balance the outfield. 

This team has a lot of promise with their youth, but I also think it’s not improved from the roster we saw one year ago.  

[Whitey333]

Too bad they haven't upgraded their starters more.  Way too many question marks.  Relying on hope and hype.  I hope I'm wrong but this could be their big problem area.  Go Twins!

[miracleb]

I like the outfielders listed here.  I previously thought Austin Martin should be on this list but having him "waiting in the wings" is not a bad thing.  I also think DaShawn Keirsey would be a capable 4th outfielder.......and a lot of value to the roster(speed) if he was needed.

[Cory Engelhardt]

I feel like an opening day projection should just have a spot set aside for a right handed hitting outfielder on the bench or at dh (they are going to add one) as well as a tbd starting pitcher addition. But otherwise this looks good

[LewFordLives]

Something has got to give with Wallner and Larnach. Pick one or the other.

[Fatbat]

I am impressed with our depth. The BPen is stacked with options and guys just getting to their prime. Honestly, the OF probably improved with the Gordon trade.  It forces Baldelli to make a decision on who to take a chance on as the 4th true OF since Castro is a super util lock. Its also a lock that we will use 9 SP over the 162 games so let the rotation begin. Its gonna be an exciting season!!! 

[arby58]

17 minutes ago, JoeCool said:

The Twins really need another arm at the top of the rotation. Without it we will get back to our losing ways in the playoffs.  Also a right handed bat is needed to balance the outfield. 

This team has a lot of promise with their youth, but I also think it’s not improved from the roster we saw one year ago.  

I've said it before and I'll say it again - Bailey Ober can be that 'another arm at the top of the rotation.' His stats compare pretty nicely with Gray's from last year. Yes, Gray had an 'other worldly' ERA AT 2.79, but Ober's 3.43 is plenty good as well. They both won 8 games, and while Gray's WAR (5.3) was much higher than Ober's 3.0, Ober only threw 144 innings to Gray's 184. They both averaged a K an inning, and Ober's WHIP was actually better (1.067 to 1.147). I think Ober was on the cusp of being a dominant pitcher last year until he sort of ran out of gas in September. If he is up to a bit larger workload, he has the tools to be a number 2 starter.

I don't understand how the roster is not improved, either. The bullpen has much greater depth, which should offset less depth in starting pitching. The offense, with some return to form from Correa, a hoped-for better Buxton, and far more at bats for Lewis, Julien, and Wallner should be at least somewhat improved. 

[JD-TWINS]

11 minutes ago, LewFordLives said:

Something has got to give with Wallner and Larnach. Pick one or the other.

Wallner is obviously the starting LF! 139 OPS+……26 XBH with 14 HR in 213 AB’s ……great arm, needs to tame emotions with the arm……….anything like this over 500 AB’s and he’s a star.

Larnach is getting an opportunity IF they don’t bring anyone else in & IF Martin doesn’t impress big time in Spring. Martin could be the guy if Buxton falters at all in Spring. Larnach is a good option within the organization to DH v. RH pitching. Larnach has an opportunity to be the LH bat option in LF when Wallner moves to RF & Kepler moves on in ‘25.

Castro will get his AB’s through CF principally - 3B some - entering in middle of games in different spots as advantageous.

[Nashvilletwin]

If a RH OF bat is not added, then one of Larnach and Martin (the only real position battle of ST) makes the team and the other plus Keirsey is the extent of our theoretical OF depth in AAA. All three of those players are unproven at the MLB level. With uncertainty about both Buxton’s health and Wallner’s sophomore season, our OF depth is insufficient. It would be smart to add a RH OF bat.  Sadly, Soler is signing a 3 yr deal with the Giants.

The starting staff is not only set, but solid with a true #1, possibly three #2 or #3 types, and two #5s who will both see plenty of starts this season,  Adding an additional arm now would only push Varland further down the SP chain - which is not what the FO wants. The goal is to get through the first several months with the six bonafide starters and then, if there are injuries or performance stumbles, see what SWR, Festa, Headrick and others can bring to the table or, alternatively, look to the trade market.

Barring injury, the reliever lineup is set. If Staumont is not ready, then there will be a battle for the final spot.

If all goes well, ST will be pretty boring. Let’s hope so.

[JD-TWINS]

7 minutes ago, arby58 said:

I've said it before and I'll say it again - Bailey Ober can be that 'another arm at the top of the rotation.' His stats compare pretty nicely with Gray's from last year. Yes, Gray had an 'other worldly' ERA AT 2.79, but Ober's 3.43 is plenty good as well. They both won 8 games, and while Gray's WAR (5.3) was much higher than Ober's 3.0, Ober only threw 144 innings to Gray's 184. They both averaged a K an inning, and Ober's WHIP was actually better (1.067 to 1.147). I think Ober was on the cusp of being a dominant pitcher last year until he sort of ran out of gas in September. If he is up to a bit larger workload, he has the tools to be a number 2 starter.

I don't understand how the roster is not improved, either. The bullpen has much greater depth, which should offset less depth in starting pitching. The offense, with some return to form from Correa, a hoped-for better Buxton, and far more at bats for Lewis, Julien, and Wallner should be at least somewhat improved. 

Absolutely correct!

FanGraphs had the Pen as #1 in the AL & #3 in the game, & that’s prior to adding Okert.

CC can’t be as bad as last year offensively! Buxton playing in 100 - 120 games would be huge offensively. If he can make some more contact & get the average closer to career average (.240) it will be a big boost.

Martin & Lee both developing in St. Paul for a couple months early and ready if needed is a luxury.

Wallner - Julien - Lewis ALL year!!

Ober is very solid! Ryan’s not much different with health coupled with decent command (big deals in MLB obviously). Paddack’s stuff plays well - keeping him fresh will be the challenge.

TEAM was 15-18 in Gray’s starts last year and the goal is to win games - not to replace ERA levels. Great respect to Gray’s ability but we need to be competitive & that’s it - don’t need to match same stats.

[Doctor Gast]

I was in favor of the Gordon trade but seeing Larnach in that extra OF spot makes me uneasy. Larnach should be down in AAA learning how to hit the curve. Maybe we'll be lucky & he'll figure it out early in the MLB.

Rotation has a bunch of 5th SP but not the SP we needed. BP is in the best shape we have ever been in.

I looked at the Fangraph projections. We are in good shape at key positions at 3B, SS, CF, & pitching, we are 15th in the others at C & 2B. 1B & DH we didn't fare well. We are in good shape at RF & poor shape at LF. I'm hoping for a quick Martin call-up to help out our RH-hitting needs in the OF. Keeping Polanco would have greatly helped our 2B ranking & Moving Julien to 1B/DH would greatly help our poor 1B/ DH showing. Because of Kiriloff's injury history, it has hindered his ranking, IMO Kiriloff will have a healthy & successful season better than what's projected.

[JosiahDeBoer]

I'd really really like Jose Miranda to make the OD roster. If he's back to his 2022 self, this lineup gets a lot scarier and a lot deeper. That's not to say that if he doesn't make it, I'll think its the wrong decision, but just that if he plays himself into a roster spot, that really matters.

[tarheeltwinsfan]

Instead of replacing Gray and, yes, Maeda, with a top quality #1 or #2 starter, the Twins "replaced" Gray and Maeda with an improved bullpen. I hope this works. I hope Duran stays healthy.

10 minutes ago, JD-TWINS said:

Wallner is obviously the starting LF! 139 OPS+……26 XBH with 14 HR in 213 AB’s ……great arm, needs to tame emotions with the arm……….anything like this over 500 AB’s and he’s a star.

Larnach is getting an opportunity IF they don’t bring anyone else in & IF Martin doesn’t impress big time in Spring. Martin could be the guy if Buxton falters at all in Spring. Larnach is a good option within the organization to DH v. RH pitching. Larnach has an opportunity to be the LH bat option in LF when Wallner moves to RF & Kepler moves on in ‘25.

Castro will get his AB’s through CF principally - 3B some - entering in middle of games in different spots as advantageous.

Larnach will do OK as long as the opposing pitchers just throw him fast balls. 

[Fatbat]

Wallner has clearly jumped ahead of Larnach.  We have at least 3 RH OF bats in or ready for MLB so there isn't a NEED to go outside the org to get one.  Best case scenario is Ober, Ryan and Paddack all out perform expectations.  It could be a fearsome foursome with Pablo!!

[tarheeltwinsfan]

2 minutes ago, JD-TWINS said:

Absolutely correct!

FanGraphs had the Pen as #1 in the AL & #3 in the game, & that’s prior to adding Okert.

CC can’t be as bad as last year offensively! Buxton playing in 100 - 120 games would be huge offensively. If he can make some more contact & get the average closer to career average (.240) it will be a big boost.

Martin & Lee both developing in St. Paul for a couple months early and ready if needed is a luxury.

Wallner - Julien - Lewis ALL year!!

Ober is very solid! Ryan’s not much different with health coupled with decent command (big deals in MLB obviously). Paddack’s stuff plays well - keeping him fresh will be the challenge.

TEAM was 15-18 in Gray’s starts last year and the goal is to win games - not to replace ERA levels. Great respect to Gray’s ability but we need to be competitive & that’s it - don’t need to match same stats.

I don't have any stats to back this up, but I don't think it was Gray's fault that the Twins were15-18 in Gray's starts. 

[chpettit19]

39 minutes ago, LewFordLives said:

Something has got to give with Wallner and Larnach. Pick one or the other.

My bet would be Wallner is your starting LFer while Larnach gets early DH ABs against righties if he shows something in spring.

[chpettit19]

6 minutes ago, tarheeltwinsfan said:

I don't have any stats to back this up, but I don't think it was Gray's fault that the Twins were15-18 in Gray's starts. 

I do. The team scored at least 4 runs in only 14 of his 32 starts. It wasn't Gray's fault the Twins were 15-18 in his starts.

[saviking]

Not too shabby .. 

[JD-TWINS]

Like the TEAM as put together now. Like the assumed 26 man here!! That said, can’t defend DeSclafani in the 5th spot if health is a question mark at this point. Hopefully, there will be a better picture of how he’s doing by March 1.

So Buxton in CF is tenuous - Larnach as the 13th position player limits flexibility in the OF as he’s a duplicate of Kepler & Wallner and none are able to play CF - saw in MLB article that Miranda is projected to be rostered out of Spring Training & not Larnach……don’t see that w/o an injury between Kirilloff/Santana.

Would prefer to live on the edge with Buxton’s health and assume Castro/Martin can handle CF if he’s got a problem with health. Gotta rely on the potential RH outfield bat coming from AAA as needed.

Spend on FA starter………Clevinger or even Ryu……..Montgomery in a perfect world. Not absolutely necessary but a really good idea, obviously!

[arby58]

49 minutes ago, LewFordLives said:

Something has got to give with Wallner and Larnach. Pick one or the other.

I don't think there is much doubt on that. Last year Wallner, in 213 MLB at bats, hit 14 HRs, had a .877 OPS and 139 OPS+. Larnach, in 183 MLB at bats, hit 8 HRs, had a .727 OPS and a 98 OPS+.

If I were the Twins, I'd still be looking for a right-handed batting OF who can credibly play CF. If Michael A. Taylor is still available, he would fit that description.

[Major League Ready]

I am going to take a leap and say they still sign another starter.

[Nashvilletwin]

12 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

My bet would be Wallner is your starting LFer while Larnach gets early DH ABs against righties if he shows something in spring.

Yeah, DH is an interesting question for this ball club. It really looks to be shaping up to be a rotation primarily among a handful of players.  Against RHs, Santana/Kiriloff (whoever is not playing 1B), Larnach (provided he makes the team) and switch hitter Castro (but he is our only CF backup) should see a lot of ABs. Against LHs, Santana, Jeffers and Buxton could be top choices.

Assuming 70% or so of starts are by RHers, Buxton could start 60% of those games in CF (so about 80 games) and be the primary DH against LHs (say another 30 games).

If the plan is to use Buxton or Castro as the DH, and Kepler is not willing to move to CF as needed, Martin is the better last choice for the roster.  

[specialiststeve]

1 hour ago, LewFordLives said:

Something has got to give with Wallner and Larnach. Pick one or the other.

Your right.... they need to move Kepler... LOL 

[chpettit19]

As of today I think this is exactly what the Twins opening day roster would look like. Staumont being the only question mark with his health. With Soler signing with San Fran I'm out on the rest of the realistic FA targets. If they can get Snell, Montgomery, or Bellinger on short-term deals I hope they do it, but I find that nearly impossible to believe. I suppose I wouldn't be mad with a JD Martinez signing, but that's it. No interest in any of the RH OF bats still on the market. If they aren't bringing in any of the 4 names I mentioned I don't think there's value in any of the other guys.

I hope they've moved on from the "Buxton as full-time DH" idea from last year. If his legs are too hurt to play CF just put him on the IL because not having his legs clearly hurts his hitting. If the plan is for Buxton to be IL'd if he can't play CF regularly then the CF question comes down to veteran CF signing (MAT or Duvall as most likely options) or the young depth. I've been like a broken record around here in not wanting to clear spots on the opening day roster for rookies, but I prefer giving Martin a shot for an in-season Buxton IL stint over going back to the MAT well or hoping Duvall can handle CF still. 

I'm good with having Larnach as the 5th OFer. Castro is the part-time CFer while Buxton is on the roster so I'm not sure why they need another CF option on the roster. Farmer is covering 2B, 3B, and SS while Santana and Kirilloff split 1B. Shouldn't need to force another CF option on the roster, in my opinion. Because I'm against the proactive protecting of Buxton I don't think there should be a need for another CFer. They've tried that and he gets hurt anyways. It's time to just let him go like everyone else. Don't limit him to 50 of the first 60 games only for him to get injured in game 61 anyways and go on the IL. I think the lineup has an open spot against both righties and lefties so I'm fine with Larnach getting his 1 last chance to show what he can do by being the DH against righties. I care more about the lineup against righties than I do against lefties. This will also force them to let one or 2 of the young lefties actually get some experience against lefthanded pitching. So I think Larnach makes sense because he isn't redundant with Wallner and Kepler when there's a DH spot available.

The rotation is my concern. I get why folks have hope in Ryan and Ober, but I'm not sold yet. I think they're both very talented, but Ryan faded in 2022 and 2023 (yes, I know he was likely hurt in 2023) and Ober is coming off by far his most innings ever while having faded himself down the stretch. I can't expect Paddack to throw a full season and still be in top shape for the playoffs. And DeSclafani feels like a throwback to the days they were bringing in Bundy and Archer. I was hoping this team was past those days. I like Varland, but I don't think he's ever going to be a playoff rotation guy. I'm happy with him as the 6th starter and think that's perfect for him now before they determine his bullpen vs rotation fate for 2025 and beyond. The playoffs are what I care about now and there's too much risk in this rotation for my liking. Yes, I can see the upside in Ryan, Ober, and Paddack, and I'm happy to have them as the trio fighting for the #3 and 4 spots in a playoff rotation, but needing all 3 of them to step up and still be close to full strength in October is too much risk for my liking for a team coming off an ALDS appearance.

Love the depth of the bullpen, but I'm never sold on a bullpen until August or September because 95% of them are just too volatile year to year. This is the same approach they've always had of stockpiling options and then they'll work through them through July to find their mix for the stretch run. I like the strategy. I like what they've done. But ranking bullpens in February is a fool's errand. They are far better setup than typically, though. So I'm a fan there.

Overall I'm with Fangraphs, though. Too many question marks on this team and I don't think they're significantly better or worse than last year. 84-88 wins is where I'd project this roster.

PS sorry for the long post. Kinda got on a roll there and just didn't stop. My bad.

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

1 hour ago, Whitey333 said:

Too bad they haven't upgraded their starters more.  Way too many question marks.  Relying on hope and hype.  I hope I'm wrong but this could be their big problem area.  Go Twins!

Way too many questions marks regarding what? SP - we have subtracted Gray and Maeda,  have added Desclafani and Paddack.  You also have Varland who could take step forward.  

Bats wise we have less questions.  Buxton appears healthier, you have Julien, Lewis and Correa in the infield.  Kiriloff is platoon with Santana.  You have a strong catcher Duo,  hopefully vazquez bat shows up a bit more this year.  Then outfield looks pretty solid.  No offense I see no quesion marks in the bullpen.  This is the best constructed team in years.  Doesn't mean we have some things to tweak.  

[2wins87]

37 minutes ago, Doctor Gast said:

I was in favor of the Gordon trade but seeing Larnach in that extra OF spot makes me uneasy. Larnach should be down in AAA learning how to hit the curve. Maybe we'll be lucky & he'll figure it out early in the MLB.

The difference between Gordon and Larnach in projected value is probably minimal. Gordon only seemed to have the last roster spot locked down because he was out of options and it seemed that the FO wasn't ready to give up on him.

Given what Larnach has done at AAA, I don't think he has much to learn there, he just needs something to click at the MLB level. I do think he has made gradual progress in the majors, but it's not clear that he'll ever fully turn the corner of becoming an MLB regular.

I don't think he has the last roster spot locked down though. The Gordon trade would certainly seem to have cleared a spot for a possible upgrade. Honestly, MAT still makes a lot of sense. There's not really a clearly better offensive RHH OF upgrade in the FA market.

It feels like there is still one more move coming fornthe outfield, but I'm not sure it's going to be particularly impactful.

 

[chpettit19]

17 minutes ago, Nashvilletwin said:

Yeah, DH is an interesting question for this ball club. It really looks to be shaping up to be a rotation primarily among a handful of players.  Against RHs, Santana/Kiriloff (whoever is not playing 1B), Larnach (provided he makes the team) and switch hitter Castro (but he is our only CF backup) should see a lot of ABs. Against LHs, Santana, Jeffers and Buxton could be top choices.

Assuming 70% or so of starts are by RHers, Buxton could start 60% of those games in CF (so about 80 games) and be the primary DH against LHs (say another 30 games).

If the plan is to use Buxton or Castro as the DH, and Kepler is not willing to move to CF as needed, Martin is the better last choice for the roster.  

I really hope they don't try to force Santana into ABs against righties. He isn't good against them. Hasn't been for years. Really hoping they don't defer to the veteran there. Castro as a DH isn't ideal, but if he can hit against righties like he did last year I'd take it. Although, I'd probably prefer him take a defensive spot and push that player to the DH spot instead (like Castro in LF and Wallner to DH). I'd start the year with Larnach in that spot and see what he can do. This is his last option year so they have to make a final decision on him. I'd like to put him in there to start the year and see if he can grab his last chance and run with it. 

I really hope they don't artificially limit Buxton's time in CF. That's been the strategy for years and hasn't worked. Because of that I'm good with a Buxton/Castro CF tandem until Buxton gets hurt and then call up Martin. I think Martin could use some more AAA time to get his footing and give him a better chance to hit the ground running when he gets the call. If they're going to artificially limit Buxton's CF time, though, I agree there's a good argument for Martin making more sense.

[Drtwins]

1 hour ago, arby58 said:

I've said it before and I'll say it again - Bailey Ober can be that 'another arm at the top of the rotation.' His stats compare pretty nicely with Gray's from last year. Yes, Gray had an 'other worldly' ERA AT 2.79, but Ober's 3.43 is plenty good as well. They both won 8 games, and while Gray's WAR (5.3) was much higher than Ober's 3.0, Ober only threw 144 innings to Gray's 184. They both averaged a K an inning, and Ober's WHIP was actually better (1.067 to 1.147). I think Ober was on the cusp of being a dominant pitcher last year until he sort of ran out of gas in September. If he is up to a bit larger workload, he has the tools to be a number 2 starter.

I don't understand how the roster is not improved, either. The bullpen has much greater depth, which should offset less depth in starting pitching. The offense, with some return to form from Correa, a hoped-for better Buxton, and far more at bats for Lewis, Julien, and Wallner should be at least somewhat improved. 

The problem with this logic is if Ober is taking Gray's spot as the clear #2, or even 1b. Who then takes Ober's spot? Let me guess, Ryan? If Ryan takes over as the #3 for Ober, who then takes the #4 for Ryan? Paddock? (I do like Paddock and think he has great stuff so this could happen if he stays healthy.) Then DeSclafani takes Maeda's spot as the #5. I wouldn't disagree that this could potentially happen but using this scenario you're expecting 4 of the Twins starting staff to have better seasons than last year. That's just not going to happen. In 2023, the Twins had an above avg #2, whether you consider Lopez or Gray the #2, Ober put up great numbers for a #3, Ryan put up solid numbers for a #4. Basically moving them each 1 spot up in the rotation makes them no longer great compared to other #2 or #3 starters across the league. 

[Nashvilletwin]

25 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

As of today I think this is exactly what the Twins opening day roster would look like. Staumont being the only question mark with his health. With Soler signing with San Fran I'm out on the rest of the realistic FA targets. If they can get Snell, Montgomery, or Bellinger on short-term deals I hope they do it, but I find that nearly impossible to believe. I suppose I wouldn't be mad with a JD Martinez signing, but that's it. No interest in any of the RH OF bats still on the market. If they aren't bringing in any of the 4 names I mentioned I don't think there's value in any of the other guys.

I hope they've moved on from the "Buxton as full-time DH" idea from last year. If his legs are too hurt to play CF just put him on the IL because not having his legs clearly hurts his hitting. If the plan is for Buxton to be IL'd if he can't play CF regularly then the CF question comes down to veteran CF signing (MAT or Duvall as most likely options) or the young depth. I've been like a broken record around here in not wanting to clear spots on the opening day roster for rookies, but I prefer giving Martin a shot for an in-season Buxton IL stint over going back to the MAT well or hoping Duvall can handle CF still. 

I'm good with having Larnach as the 5th OFer. Castro is the part-time CFer while Buxton is on the roster so I'm not sure why they need another CF option on the roster. Farmer is covering 2B, 3B, and SS while Santana and Kirilloff split 1B. Shouldn't need to force another CF option on the roster, in my opinion. Because I'm against the proactive protecting of Buxton I don't think there should be a need for another CFer. They've tried that and he gets hurt anyways. It's time to just let him go like everyone else. Don't limit him to 50 of the first 60 games only for him to get injured in game 61 anyways and go on the IL. I think the lineup has an open spot against both righties and lefties so I'm fine with Larnach getting his 1 last chance to show what he can do by being the DH against righties. I care more about the lineup against righties than I do against lefties. This will also force them to let one or 2 of the young lefties actually get some experience against lefthanded pitching. So I think Larnach makes sense because he isn't redundant with Wallner and Kepler when there's a DH spot available.

The rotation is my concern. I get why folks have hope in Ryan and Ober, but I'm not sold yet. I think they're both very talented, but Ryan faded in 2022 and 2023 (yes, I know he was likely hurt in 2023) and Ober is coming off by far his most innings ever while having faded himself down the stretch. I can't expect Paddack to throw a full season and still be in top shape for the playoffs. And DeSclafani feels like a throwback to the days they were bringing in Bundy and Archer. I was hoping this team was past those days. I like Varland, but I don't think he's ever going to be a playoff rotation guy. I'm happy with him as the 6th starter and think that's perfect for him now before they determine his bullpen vs rotation fate for 2025 and beyond. The playoffs are what I care about now and there's too much risk in this rotation for my liking. Yes, I can see the upside in Ryan, Ober, and Paddack, and I'm happy to have them as the trio fighting for the #3 and 4 spots in a playoff rotation, but needing all 3 of them to step up and still be close to full strength in October is too much risk for my liking for a team coming off an ALDS appearance.

Love the depth of the bullpen, but I'm never sold on a bullpen until August or September because 95% of them are just too volatile year to year. This is the same approach they've always had of stockpiling options and then they'll work through them through July to find their mix for the stretch run. I like the strategy. I like what they've done. But ranking bullpens in February is a fool's errand. They are far better setup than typically, though. So I'm a fan there.

Overall I'm with Fangraphs, though. Too many question marks on this team and I don't think they're significantly better or worse than last year. 84-88 wins is where I'd project this roster.

I apologise to all Twins fans for jinxing the season, but I will take the over and a division crown.

There is certainly a lot of performance risk in this lineup and not a tremendous amount of bankable depth, but the strength of this team will be its pitching, and, specifically, the pen.  I’ve been fairly vocal on the TD about how a deep, shutdown pen is the key to added wins in the 5-6 inning starter era.  This pen could run 12 deep with a solid six being high leverage options.  If the starters can average 5-6 innings a game and an ERA of 4.00 or less, there should be enough offense and bullpen success to carry this team to over 88 wins.