Projecting the 2024 Minnesota Twins Opening Day Roster: Version 2.0

[Major League Ready]

8 minutes ago, nicksaviking said:

Because they regularly go more than one inning.

I think they'll need at least one of that kind of reliever in the pen, especially early in the year when it's cold and starters aren't going as deep into games.

Plus, Staumont has a 13% walk rate, which is terrible.

It's an interesting situation.  I was thinking none of them would be on the opening day roster unless one of them looked fantastic in spring training.  Winder and Sands need to prove they belong and Staumont needs to prove he is healthy and as you said able to throw strikes.   What about Duran / Jax / Stewart / Thielbar / Topa / Okert / Jackson / Alcala to begin the season?  Jackson is nothing special but they signed him to a big league contract and he does not have any options.

[Vanimal46]

Pitchers and catchers report to ST tomorrow. Bellinger and Montgomery are still waiting to sign somewhere. At what point will they take a 1 year deal and try again next offseason? 

As others have pointed out, another SP and/or another OF would really benefit the Twins. 

[JD-TWINS]

1 hour ago, chpettit19 said:

But you're ignoring how he came to that record and just expecting it to go up while the truth is it's far more likely to go down. You're expecting Lopez, Ryan, and Ober to keep their "outcomes" in the W-L column while just improving on Gray's. Isolating just to the W-L record ignores how those results came about and you're basically just saying "well if they win more games they'll win more games." If you only win 15 games with an ERA under 3 there's no logical argument for winning more than 15 games with a 4 ERA. You're just saying "well they could win more games." If the pitchers replacing Gray only get 14 outings with 4 or more runs this season I promise you the team record in those games will be worse than 15-18 if those guys aren't throwing to a 3 or lower ERA. The ERA matters.

Good news - just saw on MLB.com that Pablo Lopez is their #1 candidate for Cy Young just ahead of Cole. Encouraging to see from a non- homer point of view!

An upbeat aside……Brandon Pfaadt was 3-9 in 19 starts and 96 innings for the D-backs last year and he was somewhat of a post season hero for them. Hoping for Big things from Louie Varland this year - 100 innings & maybe an ERA south of 4.25???

[JD-TWINS]

1 hour ago, chpettit19 said:

But you're ignoring how he came to that record and just expecting it to go up while the truth is it's far more likely to go down. You're expecting Lopez, Ryan, and Ober to keep their "outcomes" in the W-L column while just improving on Gray's. Isolating just to the W-L record ignores how those results came about and you're basically just saying "well if they win more games they'll win more games." If you only win 15 games with an ERA under 3 there's no logical argument for winning more than 15 games with a 4 ERA. You're just saying "well they could win more games." If the pitchers replacing Gray only get 14 outings with 4 or more runs this season I promise you the team record in those games will be worse than 15-18 if those guys aren't throwing to a 3 or lower ERA. The ERA matters.

Does this mean if the replacement pitcher’s ERA is above 2.79 the Team can’t win more than 15 of 33 starts?

[nicksaviking]

14 minutes ago, Major League Ready said:

It's an interesting situation.  I was thinking none of them would be on the opening day roster unless one of them looked fantastic in spring training.  Winder and Sands need to prove they belong and Staumont needs to prove he is healthy and as you said able to throw strikes.   What about Duran / Jax / Stewart / Thielbar / Topa / Okert / Jackson / Alcala to begin the season?  Jackson is nothing special but they signed him to a big league contract and he does not have any options.

Barring injury these guys all seem like locks based on how they preformed last year. As underwhelming as Winder and Sands have been, have they been any less underwhelming than Staumont? He hasn't had a good season in three years. I thought it was discussed when signed that he did have an option, which really was the only thing that made sense about that signing.

[JD-TWINS]

4 hours ago, Whitey333 said:

Too bad they haven't upgraded their starters more.  Way too many question marks.  Relying on hope and hype.  I hope I'm wrong but this could be their big problem area.  Go Twins!

Everything could be a problem area! Everything may be a grand success!!

Gotta rely on something - every staff can’t have 4 - 20 game winners.

Paddack is, at this point in their careers, better than Kenta Maeda………doesn’t mean he’ll win more games but he should pitch a similar amount of innings & with better stuff. Reasonable?

Varland/DeSclafani/Festa are charged with having a similar or better record than Gray’s ‘2023. He was 8-8. The Team was 15-18 in his starts. He threw 184 innings. My assumption is between the 3 of them they’ll throw 250 innings. I truly believe the Team can have a .500 record in the games started by these 3 guys, with their abilities, mildly improved offense & a better bullpen this doesn’t seem at all like a “stretch”.

For sure, Go Twins!

[Fire Dan Gladden]

At the moment, there is really only one non-pitching spot available on the roster (looking at you Larnach).

SP is very scary at the moment, with 2 spots basically wide open.  Ober will be given many opportunities, but he is not a 100% lock by any means.

The pen is pretty much set, with Staumont the only question mark.

This team is markedly worse than last year.  2023 Twins drastically underperformed due to many position players underperforming.  Even if Correa, Buxton, and Vasquez rebound, the rotation has 3 spots built on inexperience and/or hope.  As bad as the division is, .500 is optimistic.

[arby58]

1 hour ago, nicksaviking said:

No, you can do it without using Lewis. They got Lopez by trading Arraez. 

If Julien or Lee can't headline a trade for a better pitcher than Ober/Ryan/Paddock, than the rest of the league has gone insane. And I'm still on board with USING Ryan along with prospects to upgrade that spot in the rotation.

Can you provide a comparable trade that supports your claim, but make it for at least a #3 starting pitcher - the Twins would be insane to trade a player who was 7th in ROY balloting or one of their top 2 prospects for a number 4 starting pitcher.

[nicksaviking]

Just now, arby58 said:

Can you provide a comparable trade that supports your claim, but make it for at least a #3 starting pitcher - the Twins would be insane to trade a player who was 7th in ROY balloting or one of their top 2 prospects for a number 4 starting pitcher.

Paulo Lopez for Luis Arraez?

Sonny Gray for Chase Petty?

And the Twins got the OTHER team to even throw in additional pieces in those deals.

[arby58]

42 minutes ago, JD-TWINS said:

Everything could be a problem area! Everything may be a grand success!!

Gotta rely on something - every staff can’t have 4 - 20 game winners.

Paddack is, at this point in their careers, better than Kenta Maeda………doesn’t mean he’ll win more games but he should pitch a similar amount of innings & with better stuff. Reasonable?

Varland/DeSclafani/Festa are charged with having a similar or better record than Gray’s ‘2023. He was 8-8. The Team was 15-18 in his starts. He threw 184 innings. My assumption is between the 3 of them they’ll throw 250 innings. I truly believe the Team can have a .500 record in the games started by these 3 guys, with their abilities, mildly improved offense & a better bullpen this doesn’t seem at all like a “stretch”.

For sure, Go Twins!

I'm ok with the starting rotation, but it's not because I think the #5 starters are collectively going to perform as well as the pitcher who finished second in Cy Young award balloting last year. Instead, I am confident Ober is going to have a breakout season - and if Ryan can stay healthy, he should be better as well. If you get upgrades from those two and the #5 starters do ok, you have a decent rotation. It may not match last year's but the bullpen has far better depth and options, so the pitching to me is a wash. It's the offense where they will be markedly better, IMHO.

[arby58]

1 minute ago, nicksaviking said:

Paulo Lopez for Luis Arraez?

Sonny Gray for Chase Petty?

And the Twins got the OTHER team to even throw in additional pieces in those deals.

Luis Arraez was coming off a batting title - neither Lee or Julien has that sort of value at this point in time. Gray for Petty was not a starting pitcher for a position player, Cincinnati was in rebuild, and Gray was not coming off a particularly good year. 

I'm looking for a trade of a top prospect or a young position player for a #3 or better starting pitcher.

[chpettit19]

1 hour ago, JD-TWINS said:

How about????……….better offense - more consistent offense - better Pen…….seems obvious how a TEAM wins more games if they give up more runs from starters. My point is the TEAM’s fate didn’t revolve around Sonny Gray & their fate in ‘24 should be upbeat in the 32 starts or so in which he will be replaced. He started 20% of the games and the TEAM had a losing record - period. Nobody’s dogging Sonny Gray. Just stating the reality that the Twins can go 16-16 in the same 32 starts in ‘24 without Sonny Gray and an ERA of 2.79. They may go 10-22 or they may go 19-13……….we’ll see.

Don’t understand why Lopez - Ober - Ryan wouldn’t be expected to improve their W-L records with better offense expectations and better bullpen expectations? Do you predict a regression to mediocrity with these 3?

11-8……8-6……11-10 respectively. With similar or somewhat better offense, a mild expectation I think, the results get better. With a higher performing Pen the results get better.

These 3 guys combining for a win - loss total of better than 30-24 is not some blue sky thought.

To me STAFF ERA matters a bunch but a guy individually bringing it down (isn’t critical) and not winning games (Team not winning) doesn’t contribute to the big goal of team wins.

Another question is can Paddack out perform Maeda’s ‘23?. Started 20 games - threw 106 innings - 4.23 ERA & was 6-8…….it seems he should be able to match that or even better those outcomes - reasonable?

The Twins had the 5th best ERA in baseball last year. The staff ERA was 3.87. I don't think it's easy to maintain that when the core of that was based on your overly healthy rotation throwing the 4th most innings in baseball with the 2nd best ERA in baseball that was largely aided by Sonny throwing 20% of the innings with a 2.79 ERA. The rotation ERA was 3.82 with Sonny's performance. The rest of the rotation had a 4.10 ERA combined.

If everything else stays the same and you just switch out Sonny for a league average ERA (4.3) the rotation ERA jumps to 4.13. DeSclafani hasn't been a league average pitcher in 3 years. He's projected in the 4.50 ERA range. But we'll just assume between him, Varland, and some extra Ryan/Ober/Paddack/bullpen innings the Sonny replacement has about a 4.01 ERA over Sonny's 184 innings (82 runs over 184 innings) because that seems like a slightly ambitious, but reasonable number. That's an above average pitcher, but it still lowers the rotation ERA to 4.07 which drops from the #2 rotation to the #7 rotation. Adding an extra 25 runs to Sonny's innings jumps the team ERA from 3.87 to 4.03. That takes them from the 5th best team ERA to the 12th best. 

That's obviously assuming a lot, but getting a 4.01 ERA out of Sonny's spot with DeSclafani slotted to cover the bulk of his innings is a bold prediction. I think you're drastically underselling what 184 innings of 2.79 ERA ball does to a pitching staff. And expecting the rotation to be anywhere near as healthy as they were last year is a huge prediction. They got 841 of their 895 (94%) starter innings out of 6 arms last year. I sure hope that's the case this year, but it's not likely that they only need 51 innings (plus 3 "opener" innings) out of anyone not named Lopez, Ryan, Ober, Paddack, DeSclafani, or Varland. For comparison they used 14 starters in 2022. Their 6 most used arms combined for a whopping 628 innings. Even with them leaning WAY more on the bullpen so only having 782.2 rotation innings that year those 6 arms only accounted for 80% of the rotation innings. You're taking the best case scenario all around and claiming it's not hard to then replace 184 innings of 2.79 ERA. It's incredibly hard. Just looking at the W-L records during each starter's starts is ignoring a whole lot and underselling what losing Sonny's production means. 

[nicksaviking]

12 minutes ago, arby58 said:

Luis Arraez was coming off a batting title - neither Lee or Julien has that sort of value at this point in time. Gray for Petty was not a starting pitcher for a position player, Cincinnati was in rebuild, and Gray was not coming off a particularly good year. 

I'm looking for a trade of a top prospect or a young position player for a #3 or better starting pitcher.

Julien and Lee have 3x the value of Arraez; they have exponentially higher ceilings. Arraez is a slap hitter and this is 2024, nobody cares about batting titles. If the Marlins wanted to trade Arraez back to the Twins for Julien, they'd have to include significant prospects.

You want a different one? Jose Berrios for Simeon Woods-Richardson and Austin Martin. Happens all the time.

[arby58]

1 minute ago, nicksaviking said:

Julien and Lee have 3x the value of Arraez; they have exponentially higher ceilings. Arraez is a slap hitter and this is 2024, nobody cares about batting titles. If the Marlins wanted to trade Arraez back to the Twins for Julien, they'd have to include significant prospects.

I've noted Arraez' shortcomings, but let's be real here. Last year, Arraez, in 574 ABs had a WAR of 4.9, an OPS of .861 and an OPS+ of 133. Julien, in 338 at bats had a WAR of 2.6, an OPS of .839, and an OPS+ of 130+. Given that OPS is weighted toward power, how is that? The answer is that Arraez' slugging percentage was 10 POINTS HIGHER than Julien's last year. Lee, of course, has yet to sniff the majors.

[CCHOF5yearstoolate]

For all the pitching consternation, Fangraphs is still projecting the Twins to have the 5th best rotation and the 2nd best bullpen.

Pablo should be thought of as a Cy Young candidate, and Joe Ryan and Bailey Ober add in to become one of the best 1-2-3's in the league. Chris Paddack and DeSclafani should be at least capable 4-5 starters and Louie Varland is very good depth to have waiting in the wings. 

All the work they've done to bolster the bullpen will only help if the back end of the rotation falters. 

[Mike Sixel]

1 hour ago, chpettit19 said:

Payroll is roughly 125 now. Dave St Peter had an interview on the TV deal and current payroll situation yesterday with The Athletic and basically stated that they weren't going to be adding to the payroll at this point. "But I can’t point to a specific change in strategy. I think it’s more likely than not that the reality is that any impact from our TV deal, relative to our short-term player investments, is going to probably be limited." is the exact quote from the article. I think we need to give up on any hopes of a meaningful addition at this time.

How this guy still has a job amazes me. Pisses off fans at ever opportunity, and can't get this team a tv deal.......

[nicksaviking]

Just now, Mike Sixel said:

How this guy still has a job amazes me. Pisses off fans at ever opportunity, and can't get this team a tv deal.......

Yeah, I don't get it. Admittedly I don't know the landscape of all the men and women in charge of the operations side of all 30 teams, but how many of them have a local guy with zero other business experience running the show? Aren't the other teams plucking these guys from Fortune 500 companies or something?

[KBJ1]

While I like the bullpen depth, I don't see any lockdown arms after Duran & Stewart (if healthy). So best bullpen in the league is highly debatable, but promising.

SP will be OK as it is. Still need that 5 tool RH bat in LF.

The youngsters - Kiriloff,  Julien, Wallner, Lewis and Martin or Lee will have to step up - along with Correa & Buxton to make a championship run.

[Mike Sixel]

Just now, KBJ1 said:

While I like the bullpen depth, I don't see any lockdown arms after Duran & Stewart (if healthy). So best bullpen in the league is highly debatable, but promising.

SP will be OK as it is. Still need that 5 tool RH bat in LF.

The youngsters - Kiriloff,  Julien, Wallner, Lewis and Martin or Lee will have to step up - along with Correa & Buxton to make a championship run.

How many lock down arms do you think most teams have? How many have this much depth? I'd guess almost none of them.

[stringer bell]

Do-Hyeoung Park has weighed in on the Twins official website. He has Miranda instead of Larnach as the 26th man, but otherwise agrees with the prediction of the OP. 

As much as I didn't agree with Larnach in the role of 4th OF, I think having Miranda as a right handed DH and Castro as basically the only outfield depth is off track. There might be another transaction, but right now I'll stick with my prediction that Austin Martin is on the roster on Opening Day.

[Mike Sixel]

1 minute ago, stringer bell said:

Do-Hyeoung Park has weighed in on the Twins official website. He has Miranda instead of Larnach as the 26th man, but otherwise agrees with the prediction of the OP. 

As much as I didn't agree with Larnach in the role of 4th OF, I think having Miranda as a right handed DH and Castro as basically the only outfield depth is off track. There might be another transaction, but right now I'll stick with my prediction that Austin Martin is on the roster on Opening Day.

It's hard to see only Castro (and AK?) as OF depth, agreed. 

[nicksaviking]

5 minutes ago, stringer bell said:

Do-Hyeoung Park has weighed in on the Twins official website. He has Miranda instead of Larnach as the 26th man, but otherwise agrees with the prediction of the OP. 

As much as I didn't agree with Larnach in the role of 4th OF, I think having Miranda as a right handed DH and Castro as basically the only outfield depth is off track. There might be another transaction, but right now I'll stick with my prediction that Austin Martin is on the roster on Opening Day.

I'd like to see Miranda, but only because I think he has a significantly higher chance to be a middle of the order bat.

But signing Santana and trading Gordon pretty much eliminated that, save for injury.

[Shaitan]

Seems to be more depth every year.

FO is doing something right.

[DocBauer]

I'd say just a out right, but a trio of issues:

1] Do we know for sure DeScalfini is 100% and ready to go? If we get anything close to the guy he was in 2021 and the first 1 1/2 months of 2023 we've got something. If not, trouble. But again, do we know he's ready?

2] Do we know if Staumont is 100% and ready to go? Lot of depth and options if he's not ready opening day. 

3] Still hoping Larnach turns out. He needs and deserves another chance. But right now he's also somewhat redundant with Wallner, Kepler, and Castro, who hits better LH. 

I still think a RH OF makes sense. But that's been true for about 4yrs now! Miranda might not be fully healthy and he doesn't play the OF. With Soler gone there isn't really a difference maker. But I'm still a believer in someone like Pham or Duvall for 1yr on an inexpensive deal. You get a veteran RH bat with power to share corner OF time, but not JUST a platoon player if someone is out for a while. I don't think it's necessary to to give the job to Martin at this time. He's going to play this year. But I want that proven vet opening day instead of a rookie with 1/3 of a AAA season, no matter how much I like him.

For those Santana supporters, hold back a little. He was bad for FIVE YEARS  before a rebound in 2023. And now he's going to be just as good at 38yo? RH bat against LH, PH, and maybe a few days against RHP is all he should be doing. 

But I like the offense and depth with the 1 OF question.

The pen is the deepest and probably the best I've seen in years. I don't have an issue with not adding a big name arm. A big name pen arm can often mean expensive, not necessarily good or better. 

There's still smoke out there regarding another SP. Not sure I expect it, but there's more $ suddenly coming in that wasn't supposed to be there. It's probably too late to make a huge difference. But a 1yr doesn't hurt or affect 2025. But a Ryu or Clevinger can help in 2024, especially if there are questions about Disco.

I like the construction of this team and the depth. But I think there's enough $ to raise the floor and increase the depth still. 

[Nashvilletwin]

3 hours ago, JD-TWINS said:

Good news - just saw on MLB.com that Pablo Lopez is their #1 candidate for Cy Young just ahead of Cole. Encouraging to see from a non- homer point of view!

An upbeat aside……Brandon Pfaadt was 3-9 in 19 starts and 96 innings for the D-backs last year and he was somewhat of a post season hero for them. Hoping for Big things from Louie Varland this year - 100 innings & maybe an ERA south of 4.25???

I’d take 200 innings in 36 combined starts of 4.25 ERA from Varland and DeSclafani combined right now.  If we got 30 starts on average from the other four, that would only leave six starts for others - barely covering doubleheaders. 

[JD-TWINS]

4 hours ago, arby58 said:

Yes, the Twins only scored an average of 3.71 runs in games Gray started. Ober was next on the list of 'non-support' - half his 24 starts the Twins scored 3 or fewer runs, for average run support of 4.17. At the other end of the spectrum, they were over 5 runs of support for Varland (5.06, and scored four or more in 7 of 10 starts), Ryan (5.37 and four or more runs in 17 of 29 starts), and Lopez (5.47 and four or more runs in 21 of 32 starts). It's why the won-loss record isn't always a great indicator.

OTOH, Gray laid an egg in arguably the Twins' biggest post-season game, giving up 5 runs in 4 innings pitched against Houston in game 3  - after Lopez had pitched a gem in game 2. 

Not trying to stir up stuff here - would assume runs per game (more the better) associate to wins, generally.

The missing pieces are how skewed the runs scored may be across a number of games. For instance, the Team may have scored 7 runs in 3 of Gray’s starts & 1 or 2 in 6 other games. He may go 3-4 and pitch really well in all 9 games! This outcome, while having 3.75 runs per 9 support. This is just theoretical but could be why stats get misrepresented.

The other issue is that I’m assuming the “run support” per starter is based on the 9 inning score of their associated starts. If they leave the game tied or behind & the runs come later in the game they are probably not getting a win OR if they pitch well & have a lead & then the bullpen can’t hold the lead. Another negative outcome.

[Bright Twins]

Perhaps, Boras will turn to the Twins again for a short term deal like Correa's for one of his prizes…if they aren't getting the offers they want.

Cody Bellinger had a couple low performance years before last year's rebound.

Same can be said for Snell as his two CY Young's were sandwiched around ho-hum years.

Boras may choose a high AAV short term deal, and get the big contract next year after proving last year was not a fluke. Twins would have to pony up for a year or two, but they did it for Correa.

Spring dreaming.

[arby58]

1 hour ago, Bright Twins said:

Perhaps, Boras will turn to the Twins again for a short term deal like Correa's for one of his prizes…if they aren't getting the offers they want.

Cody Bellinger had a couple low performance years before last year's rebound.

Same can be said for Snell as his two CY Young's were sandwiched around ho-hum years.

Boras may choose a high AAV short term deal, and get the big contract next year after proving last year was not a fluke. Twins would have to pony up for a year or two, but they did it for Correa.

Spring dreaming.

Why not? If it's a one-year deal, the uncertainty about next year's TV contract isn't an issue. They clearly are getting more back on this year's deal than what they were talking about cutting from last year's budget. Tough choice - probably take Bellinger . . . no, wait, Snell . . . or Montgomery?

[JD-TWINS]

12 hours ago, Nashvilletwin said:

If a RH OF bat is not added, then one of Larnach and Martin (the only real position battle of ST) makes the team and the other plus Keirsey is the extent of our theoretical OF depth in AAA. All three of those players are unproven at the MLB level. With uncertainty about both Buxton’s health and Wallner’s sophomore season, our OF depth is insufficient. It would be smart to add a RH OF bat.  Sadly, Soler is signing a 3 yr deal with the Giants.

The starting staff is not only set, but solid with a true #1, possibly three #2 or #3 types, and two #5s who will both see plenty of starts this season,  Adding an additional arm now would only push Varland further down the SP chain - which is not what the FO wants. The goal is to get through the first several months with the six bonafide starters and then, if there are injuries or performance stumbles, see what SWR, Festa, Headrick and others can bring to the table or, alternatively, look to the trade market.

Barring injury, the reliever lineup is set. If Staumont is not ready, then there will be a battle for the final spot.

If all goes well, ST will be pretty boring. Let’s hope so.

Gotta say that before this evening I never paid attention to D. Keirsey at all. Looked at the invites to Spring Training and his 2023 trajectory looks pretty good! Great AA & then .264 BA & OBP of .370 at AAA in 39 games. Fast - plays CF…….seems like some competition for Martin!! He looks promising - maybe a September call up guy - at a minimum!

[Doctor Wu]

18 hours ago, JD-TWINS said:

Good news - just saw on MLB.com that Pablo Lopez is their #1 candidate for Cy Young just ahead of Cole.

Oh man, that would great for Pablo to have that kind of season. At this point, I'm just hoping he stays off the IL and is effective as he was last season.