Projecting the 2024 Minnesota Twins Opening Day Roster: Version 2.0

[Rod Carews Birthday]

I can be pretty happy with this roster as a whole, even if it is a long ways from bulletproof.  Offensively, barring severe sophomore slumps from Lewis, Wallner, and Julien combined with a little more return to normal from Correa and Burton, we should be pretty good.  I think Santana is a fine pickup, particularly at the price.  The weakest link is probably Larnach, who clogs the roster a little, but if he can find a positive hitting stroke, we will finally know what we have.  On the pitching side, the bullpen, barring injury, looks tremendous.  It’s not that there are a bunch of stars, but rather that the 6, 7, and 8 guys are genuine proven relief pitchers.  Someone will surely bomb here, but the floor is pretty amazing as a group.  There is plenty of complaining out there about the rotation, but I am a believer in one of Paddack, Ober, and Ryan stepping up to become more of a #2/playoff caliber starter.  My theory is that when three guys have a reasonable chance at it, then at least one is likely to come through, although we also need Lopez to prove that last year wasn’t a fluke.  Let’s play some games and find out just how right or wrong we, the speculators were!

[stringer bell]

I have Austin Martin over Larnach due to versatility, RH bat and speed. Having Martin available to play center allows Castro to be a true super utility guy and spreads out DH at bats between the projected starters and Santana. 
 

On the pitching side, if everyone is healthy, this looks about right. Funderburk or Alcalá could possibly pitch their way on the Opening Day staff in the bullpen Varland gets a lovely parting gift (Green Line ticket) with a guarantee of a return 

[chpettit19]

21 minutes ago, Nashvilletwin said:

I apologise to all Twins fans for jinxing the season, but I will take the over and a division crown.

There is certainly a lot of performance risk in this lineup and not a tremendous amount of bankable depth, but the strength of this team will be its pitching, and, specifically, the pen.  I’ve been fairly vocal on the TD about how a deep, shutdown pen is the key to added wins in the 5-6 inning starter era.  This pen could run 12 deep with a solid six being high leverage options.  If the starters can average 5-6 innings a game and an ERA of 4.00 or less, there should be enough offense and bullpen success to carry this team to over 88 wins.

I love the optimism. And I agree with a shutdown pen being a huge weapon. I just never trust a bullpen to start a year. And it's not like they brought in Hader, Williams, and Diaz. How many of these guys had any of us heard of before they were brought in? Outside of the elite guys, pen arms are just so hard to predict. If the pen is as good as we all hope it would definitely add some wins. But that's a massive if. Bullpen arms are just too volatile for me to ever bank on outside the elite guys.

[JD-TWINS]

1 hour ago, tarheeltwinsfan said:

I don't have any stats to back this up, but I don't think it was Gray's fault that the Twins were15-18 in Gray's starts. 

Gray pitched well - deserved a better fate in many games! Not placing blame on him - the TEAM outcomes are what they were when he pitched. No bonus points for a low ERA. Bottom line going forward is can DeSclafani & Varland combine for 184 innings - maybe 200 innings and go .500? If that’s possible or probable, Gray has been successfully replaced.

The Playoff mystique is just that. Gray won a 5 inning start v. Toronto and had to pick a guy off 2B to escape a big jam. Well done but hardly dominant…….His start against Astros was not good.

I’m upbeat about the staff, as is, but certainly wouldn’t shy away from another starter addition.

1 hour ago, chpettit19 said:

I do. The team scored at least 4 runs in only 14 of his 32 starts. It wasn't Gray's fault the Twins were 15-18 in his starts.

Nobody said it was his fault. Just reminding TD people he wasn’t dominant in the win-loss columns. No bonus points in the standings for ERA. Better chance to win with lower ERA, obviously. A starter with an ERA sub 3.00 necessary to get wins? No.

The outcomes & innings are what need to be replaced.

Can Varland & DeSclafani go .500 and eat up 184-200 innings? That’s the question.

His post season outings in ‘23 were OK (with a big pick off) & poor. I think that’s fair.

[tony&rodney]

The roster is stronger this year than at the beginning of last year. A fully healthy Correa, Kirilloff, and Buxton makes a difference to the lineup. I'm bullish on the offense. No to adding retreads. Martin is ready to protect both Buxton and Wallner. Hopeful that Castro can play all over and repeat his performance or improve on it from last season.

Louie Varland belongs in the rotation as a #4 with Paddack used as a #5 where they can protect him with occasional skipped starts. Staumont and DeSclafani may open the year on the IL, giving Alcala, Winder, or Funderburk a slot. 

Not a fan of adding a starting pitcher unless it is a guy like Pablo. Falvey was likely unwilling to take a significant risk in the trade market, which may turn out for the best. It would not help the team to add a back end piece to the rotation and may actually lower the expected win total.

[jmlease1]

The improvement on this team from last season on the position side will come from injured players being healthy this season (Buxton, Correa, Kirilloff) and young players getting more time/continuing to grow (Lewis, Wallner, Julien). From the pitching side, it comes from more consistency and depth in the bullpen and growth/evolution from young starters like Ryan/Ober/Varland and return from injury in Paddack. The plan seems to be to offset any decline in the starting pitching (which was excellent last season) with a stronger bullpen and player development. There's risk in that, but there's risk in basically any roster construction that doesn't include having a payroll over $200M.

Overall, it looks like a pretty deep roster. There's good positional flexibility, with guys like Castro & Farmer off the bench having an ability to play 6-7 positions comfortably and professionally. There's a backup at every position on the roster out the gate, with Vazquez being quality defensively at catcher (and hopefully bouncing back a little on offense), Santana a good platoon partner and defensive replacement at 1B, and Farmer being an good platoon partner at 2B. Probably the biggest concern is whether Larnach can be a good backup for Kepler/Wallner in the corners; our depth in AAA is probably the thinnest in the OF for guys who have the strongest upside as hitters. (I'm excited about Rodriguez, Rosario, Jenkins, Gonzalez, etc but the Twins best OF hitting talent is another year away; maybe one of those guys will be ready to make the leap from AA but it's asking a lot). I'm hopeful this team will run a little more this season: Castro showed he could be a weapon that way, but Julien is a quality base-stealer, and Lewis and Buxton could both be difference makers there as well.

There's plenty of bullpen options to sort through if guys get overworked and/or are ineffective; I'm still a big fan of Alcala for example and if he starts in AAA after not really pitching in 2023 he could be a real weapon if he's back to full strength and gets that changeup locked in to handle LH batters. Starting pitching depth is a little more worrisome. After Varland there are definitely some question marks regarding readiness/ability to succeed at MLB. Festa is showing great signs, but has never pitched in MLB. SWR is a talent I still like, but he's been erratic. Beyond that it starts to wobble (Headrick? Canterino? Raya?) but it's also fair to say that most teams are going to be in trouble if they need to get 40-50 starts out of their 9-11th choices for the rotation.

Twins should be the favorites to win the division, and once you make the playoffs, all bets are off.

[nicksaviking]

1 hour ago, arby58 said:

I've said it before and I'll say it again - Bailey Ober can be that 'another arm at the top of the rotation.' His stats compare pretty nicely with Gray's from last year. Yes, Gray had an 'other worldly' ERA AT 2.79, but Ober's 3.43 is plenty good as well. They both won 8 games, and while Gray's WAR (5.3) was much higher than Ober's 3.0, Ober only threw 144 innings to Gray's 184. They both averaged a K an inning, and Ober's WHIP was actually better (1.067 to 1.147). I think Ober was on the cusp of being a dominant pitcher last year until he sort of ran out of gas in September. If he is up to a bit larger workload, he has the tools to be a number 2 starter.

I don't understand how the roster is not improved, either. The bullpen has much greater depth, which should offset less depth in starting pitching. The offense, with some return to form from Correa, a hoped-for better Buxton, and far more at bats for Lewis, Julien, and Wallner should be at least somewhat improved. 

That's great.

But get me somebody that already is. Having Ober turn into that guy in September would be a great bonus. 

[chpettit19]

9 minutes ago, JD-TWINS said:

Gray pitched well - deserved a better fate in many games! Not placing blame on him - the TEAM outcomes are what they were when he pitched. No bonus points for a low ERA. Bottom line going forward is can DeSclafani & Varland combine for 184 innings - maybe 200 innings and go .500? If that’s possible or probable, Gray has been successfully replaced.

The Playoff mystique is just that. Gray won a 5 inning start v. Toronto and had to pick a guy off 2B to escape a big jam. Well done but hardly dominant…….His start against Astros was not good.

I’m upbeat about the staff, as is, but certainly wouldn’t shy away from another starter addition.

Nobody said it was his fault. Just reminding TD people he wasn’t dominant in the win-loss columns. No bonus points in the standings for ERA. Better chance to win with lower ERA, obviously. A starter with an ERA sub 3.00 necessary to get wins? No.

The outcomes & innings are what need to be replaced.

Can Varland & DeSclafani go .500 and eat up 184-200 innings? That’s the question.

His post season outings in ‘23 were OK (with a big pick off) & poor. I think that’s fair.

But you're ignoring how he came to that record and just expecting it to go up while the truth is it's far more likely to go down. You're expecting Lopez, Ryan, and Ober to keep their "outcomes" in the W-L column while just improving on Gray's. Isolating just to the W-L record ignores how those results came about and you're basically just saying "well if they win more games they'll win more games." If you only win 15 games with an ERA under 3 there's no logical argument for winning more than 15 games with a 4 ERA. You're just saying "well they could win more games." If the pitchers replacing Gray only get 14 outings with 4 or more runs this season I promise you the team record in those games will be worse than 15-18 if those guys aren't throwing to a 3 or lower ERA. The ERA matters.

[jmlease1]

12 minutes ago, stringer bell said:

I have Austin Martin over Larnach due to versatility, RH bat and speed. Having Martin available to play center allows Castro to be a true super utility guy and spreads out DH at bats between the projected starters and Santana. 
 

On the pitching side, if everyone is healthy, this looks about right. Funderburk or Alcalá could possibly pitch their way on the Opening Day staff in the bullpen Varland gets a lovely parting gift (Green Line ticket) with a guarantee of a return 

I wouldn't say no to Martin making the Opening Day roster. I'm still high on him and if he can hit in MLB he's going to be a great 4th OF who can also step on the dirt if needed. This team could really rack up a lot more value on the basepaths if we have healthy legs from Lewis and Buxton, unleash Julien, keep Castro rolling, and add Martin to the mix. (maybe seeing the Twins steal more bases will reduce some of the complaining about strikeouts. nah, probably not.)

I think Alcala starts in AAA unless Staumont isn't ready to go and I really don't see the twins carrying 3 LHPs in the bullpen to start the season, but I'm pretty happy with guys like Alcala & Funderburk being the first 2 relievers on the Green Line this year.

[nicksaviking]

2 minutes ago, jmlease1 said:

I wouldn't say no to Martin making the Opening Day roster. I'm still high on him and if he can hit in MLB he's going to be a great 4th OF who can also step on the dirt if needed. This team could really rack up a lot more value on the basepaths if we have healthy legs from Lewis and Buxton, unleash Julien, keep Castro rolling, and add Martin to the mix. (maybe seeing the Twins steal more bases will reduce some of the complaining about strikeouts. nah, probably not.)

I think Alcala starts in AAA unless Staumont isn't ready to go and I really don't see the twins carrying 3 LHPs in the bullpen to start the season, but I'm pretty happy with guys like Alcala & Funderburk being the first 2 relievers on the Green Line this year.

Even if he's ready to go, I don't think Staumont makes the team, I think he was mostly attractive due to his option. There's no multi-inning reliever listed, I think Winder or Sands gets Staumont's spot.

[Major League Ready]

10 minutes ago, nicksaviking said:

Even if he's ready to go, I don't think Staumont makes the team, I think he was mostly attractive due to his option. There's no multi-inning reliever listed, I think Winder or Sands gets Staumont's spot.

Winder and Sands also have an option remaining so there would be no need to roster them based on options Why one of them above Staumont?

[tony&rodney]

17 minutes ago, nicksaviking said:

But get me somebody that already is.

Do you think the Twins will trade the player required to bring back a top of the rotation starting pitcher?  That player is Royce Lewis. 

[roger]

1 hour ago, chpettit19 said:

As of today I think this is exactly what the Twins opening day roster would look like. Staumont being the only question mark with his health. With Soler signing with San Fran I'm out on the rest of the realistic FA targets. If they can get Snell, Montgomery, or Bellinger on short-term deals I hope they do it, but I find that nearly impossible to believe. I suppose I wouldn't be mad with a JD Martinez signing, but that's it. No interest in any of the RH OF bats still on the market. If they aren't bringing in any of the 4 names I mentioned I don't think there's value in any of the other guys.

I hope they've moved on from the "Buxton as full-time DH" idea from last year. If his legs are too hurt to play CF just put him on the IL because not having his legs clearly hurts his hitting. If the plan is for Buxton to be IL'd if he can't play CF regularly then the CF question comes down to veteran CF signing (MAT or Duvall as most likely options) or the young depth. I've been like a broken record around here in not wanting to clear spots on the opening day roster for rookies, but I prefer giving Martin a shot for an in-season Buxton IL stint over going back to the MAT well or hoping Duvall can handle CF still. 

I'm good with having Larnach as the 5th OFer. Castro is the part-time CFer while Buxton is on the roster so I'm not sure why they need another CF option on the roster. Farmer is covering 2B, 3B, and SS while Santana and Kirilloff split 1B. Shouldn't need to force another CF option on the roster, in my opinion. Because I'm against the proactive protecting of Buxton I don't think there should be a need for another CFer. They've tried that and he gets hurt anyways. It's time to just let him go like everyone else. Don't limit him to 50 of the first 60 games only for him to get injured in game 61 anyways and go on the IL. I think the lineup has an open spot against both righties and lefties so I'm fine with Larnach getting his 1 last chance to show what he can do by being the DH against righties. I care more about the lineup against righties than I do against lefties. This will also force them to let one or 2 of the young lefties actually get some experience against lefthanded pitching. So I think Larnach makes sense because he isn't redundant with Wallner and Kepler when there's a DH spot available.

The rotation is my concern. I get why folks have hope in Ryan and Ober, but I'm not sold yet. I think they're both very talented, but Ryan faded in 2022 and 2023 (yes, I know he was likely hurt in 2023) and Ober is coming off by far his most innings ever while having faded himself down the stretch. I can't expect Paddack to throw a full season and still be in top shape for the playoffs. And DeSclafani feels like a throwback to the days they were bringing in Bundy and Archer. I was hoping this team was past those days. I like Varland, but I don't think he's ever going to be a playoff rotation guy. I'm happy with him as the 6th starter and think that's perfect for him now before they determine his bullpen vs rotation fate for 2025 and beyond. The playoffs are what I care about now and there's too much risk in this rotation for my liking. Yes, I can see the upside in Ryan, Ober, and Paddack, and I'm happy to have them as the trio fighting for the #3 and 4 spots in a playoff rotation, but needing all 3 of them to step up and still be close to full strength in October is too much risk for my liking for a team coming off an ALDS appearance.

Love the depth of the bullpen, but I'm never sold on a bullpen until August or September because 95% of them are just too volatile year to year. This is the same approach they've always had of stockpiling options and then they'll work through them through July to find their mix for the stretch run. I like the strategy. I like what they've done. But ranking bullpens in February is a fool's errand. They are far better setup than typically, though. So I'm a fan there.

Overall I'm with Fangraphs, though. Too many question marks on this team and I don't think they're significantly better or worse than last year. 84-88 wins is where I'd project this roster.

PS sorry for the long post. Kinda got on a roll there and just didn't stop. My bad.

We don't know the exact numbers of the tv deal and I am not going to speculate.  But it is probably more than their worst case scenario.  Their current payroll is what, $115M?  Let's further assume that last year's $155M was at least $10M greater than they wanted.  None of us know what their books say, but that might have put them at break-even or even a tiny loss. 

I also understand there are concerns for dollars in 2025 and beyond.  But, it looks like they would have room to have that discussion with Boras like they did two years ago and sign either Montgomery or Snell (both are still unsigned, right?) to that one year deal for say, $20M with a few kickers.  

[JD-TWINS]

1 minute ago, chpettit19 said:

But you're ignoring how he came to that record and just expecting it to go up while the truth is it's far more likely to go down. You're expecting Lopez, Ryan, and Ober to keep their "outcomes" in the W-L column while just improving on Gray's. Isolating just to the W-L record ignores how those results came about and you're basically just saying "well if they win more games they'll win more games." If you only win 15 games with an ERA under 3 there's no logical argument for winning more than 15 games with a 4 ERA. You're just saying "well they could win more games." If the pitchers replacing Gray only get 14 outings with 4 or more runs this season I promise you the team record in those games will be worse than 15-18 if those guys aren't throwing to a 3 or lower ERA. The ERA matters.

How about????……….better offense - more consistent offense - better Pen…….seems obvious how a TEAM wins more games if they give up more runs from starters. My point is the TEAM’s fate didn’t revolve around Sonny Gray & their fate in ‘24 should be upbeat in the 32 starts or so in which he will be replaced. He started 20% of the games and the TEAM had a losing record - period. Nobody’s dogging Sonny Gray. Just stating the reality that the Twins can go 16-16 in the same 32 starts in ‘24 without Sonny Gray and an ERA of 2.79. They may go 10-22 or they may go 19-13……….we’ll see.

Don’t understand why Lopez - Ober - Ryan wouldn’t be expected to improve their W-L records with better offense expectations and better bullpen expectations? Do you predict a regression to mediocrity with these 3?

11-8……8-6……11-10 respectively. With similar or somewhat better offense, a mild expectation I think, the results get better. With a higher performing Pen the results get better.

These 3 guys combining for a win - loss total of better than 30-24 is not some blue sky thought.

To me STAFF ERA matters a bunch but a guy individually bringing it down (isn’t critical) and not winning games (Team not winning) doesn’t contribute to the big goal of team wins.

Another question is can Paddack out perform Maeda’s ‘23?. Started 20 games - threw 106 innings - 4.23 ERA & was 6-8…….it seems he should be able to match that or even better those outcomes - reasonable?

[Blyleven2011]

2 hours ago, Doctor Gast said:

I was in favor of the Gordon trade but seeing Larnach in that extra OF spot makes me uneasy. Larnach should be down in AAA learning how to hit the curve. Maybe we'll be lucky & he'll figure it out early in the MLB.

Rotation has a bunch of 5th SP but not the SP we needed. BP is in the best shape we have ever been in.

I looked at the Fangraph projections. We are in good shape at key positions at 3B, SS, CF, & pitching, we are 15th in the others at C & 2B. 1B & DH we didn't fare well. We are in good shape at RF & poor shape at LF. I'm hoping for a quick Martin call-up to help out our RH-hitting needs in the OF. Keeping Polanco would have greatly helped our 2B ranking & Moving Julien to 1B/DH would greatly help our poor 1B/ DH showing. Because of Kiriloff's injury history, it has hindered his ranking, IMO Kiriloff will have a healthy & successful season better than what's projected.

My real concern  ...

laŕnach , hopefully he worked hard this off season on improving on hitting the off speed pitches  ...

Wallner ,  I'm still not sold on his plate approach and all his strikeouts  ...

Castro had a good season  for the Twins in 2023 , can he repeat in 2024 ???

We will need consistency from our hitters this year to score more runs as the rotation  may not be as good as last year , as they kept us in alot of games in 2023 , will the starters repeat  in 2024 ???

 

[JD-TWINS]

5 minutes ago, roger said:

We don't know the exact numbers of the tv deal and I am not going to speculate.  But it is probably more than their worst case scenario.  Their current payroll is what, $115M?  Let's further assume that last year's $155M was at least $10M greater than they wanted.  None of us know what their books say, but that might have put them at break-even or even a tiny loss. 

I also understand there are concerns for dollars in 2025 and beyond.  But, it looks like they would have room to have that discussion with Boras like they did two years ago and sign either Montgomery or Snell (both are still unsigned, right?) to that one year deal for say, $20M with a few kickers.  

Snell wants $30M for 9 years ………Montgomery wants $25M for 6 years. There's a big valley between those numbers & $20M for a year with some incentives. I understand the potential for a more Team friendly deal at this point but these guys could contact 10 different teams that would pay either guy 4 years for $27M/yr in a heartbeat!!

CC signed for 3 years with him having the options for years 2 & 3. $35M/year…..also considerably different than around $20M.

Would love Montgomery but realistically he needs at least 5 years to sign anything IMO.

[High heat]

Still not sure there isn’t some bigger roster shake ups with a trade for a starting pitcher.  
 

maybe involving moving Walner or Julien .  I wouldn’t be suprised if Pittsburgh was involved.  

If they bring in a RH DH or Outfielder you know the roster tinkering is complete.

 

 

[roger]

5 minutes ago, JD-TWINS said:

Snell wants $30M for 9 years ………Montgomery wants $25M for 6 years. There's a big valley between those numbers & $20M for a year with some incentives. I understand the potential for a more Team friendly deal at this point but these guys could contact 10 different teams that would pay either guy 4 years for $27M/yr in a heartbeat!!

CC signed for 3 years with him having the options for years 2 & 3. $35M/year…..also considerably different than around $20M.

Would love Montgomery but realistically he needs at least 5 years to sign anything IMO.

True, true and true.  But you could have said the same about Correa two years ago.  Then Boras and the FO had that phone call that nobody expected.  Just saying, who knows?

[JD-TWINS]

11 minutes ago, Blyleven2011 said:

My real concern  ...

laŕnach , hopefully he worked hard this off season on improving on hitting the off speed pitches  ...

Wallner ,  I'm still not sold on his plate approach and all his strikeouts  ...

Castro had a good season  for the Twins in 2023 , can he repeat in 2024 ???

We will need consistency from our hitters this year to score more runs as the rotation  may not be as good as last year , as they kept us in alot of games in 2023 , will the starters repeat  in 2024 ???

 

Expectation…..offense is more consistent and has better run production.

Wallner’s numbers in 213 AB’s were very good…..regardless of strikeout %. Agreed, would also like to see it under 30% at a minimum.

Lewis - Julien - Wallner for 1,500-1,600 combined AB’s in ‘24 v. approximately 750-800 in ‘23.

Bullpen is better.

Buxton & CC will have somewhat better health and have to improve somewhat offensively.

Team was under .500 a handful of games in Gray/Maeda’s starts.

To me it seems the risk and unknowns are spread around the roster enough so that the outcome will be positive without everything being perfect.

[JD-TWINS]

4 minutes ago, roger said:

True, true and true.  But you could have said the same about Correa two years ago.  Then Boras and the FO had that phone call that nobody expected.  Just saying, who knows?

Agreed - anything is possible!! Would love something like that out of the blue!!!! The number though, won’t/can’t be around $20M - unfortunately.

[tarheeltwinsfan]

1 hour ago, tony&rodney said:

Paddack used as a #5 where they can protect him with occasional skipped starts.

Really good point which I had not thought of. 

[stringer bell]

I wonder if an even tighter payroll in ‘25 is why the Twins acquired all these older team controlled guys. Only Thielbar can be a free agent among the relievers and DeSclafani is the only starter. If most of these work out, the bullpen turnover will be limited.

Also, it would explain reluctance to even consider guys looking for multi-year deals. I see Soler got three years and the top remaining free agents want more than three. 

[stringer bell]

28 minutes ago, JD-TWINS said:

CC signed for 3 years with him having the options for years 2 & 3. $35M/year…..also considerably different than around $20M.

 

You’re talking about Correa? It’s my understanding that he’s here for six years with team options after that meaning that he couldn’t be a free agent until after 2028.

Looking at this a little deeper, you must be talking about Correa’s original contract with the Twins. Sorry I misinterpreted. 

[Jocko87]

I think the only free agent I would be OK with adding to this roster is MAT.  That includes the pitchers, trade for young controlled unknown stud aside. 

One of the things that has always bothered me about the RH outfielder thumper conversation is that unless its a Nelson Cruz level bat, that guy hits well down in the order, 8 or 9.  The top RH bats are Correa, Buxton, Lewis, Jeffers/Santana.  The thump from the RH side has to come from that core group and only probably a Soler hits higher than 7 in the order regularly.  A JD Martinez might, but needs to play the field somewhere.

MAT and Martin always made better sense to me in that they are a slightly different type bat that fits in the bottom.  MAT in the role he was intended for last year is a very intriguing fit for this roster.  If he's not starting, he is an absolute bench weapon as a runner, defender and even occasional hitter.  He'll hit well enough in spot starts against lefties and the defensive outfield of MAT, Buxton and Kepler is still exciting.  I don't want to talk about the Buxton insurance factor, but it's a thing.

I'm sure he wants multiple years and a starting role but times running short. 

Otherwise, I'm good to start the spring.  Money and prospect resources are better deployed at the deadline at this point.

[arby58]

2 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

I do. The team scored at least 4 runs in only 14 of his 32 starts. It wasn't Gray's fault the Twins were 15-18 in his starts.

Yes, the Twins only scored an average of 3.71 runs in games Gray started. Ober was next on the list of 'non-support' - half his 24 starts the Twins scored 3 or fewer runs, for average run support of 4.17. At the other end of the spectrum, they were over 5 runs of support for Varland (5.06, and scored four or more in 7 of 10 starts), Ryan (5.37 and four or more runs in 17 of 29 starts), and Lopez (5.47 and four or more runs in 21 of 32 starts). It's why the won-loss record isn't always a great indicator.

OTOH, Gray laid an egg in arguably the Twins' biggest post-season game, giving up 5 runs in 4 innings pitched against Houston in game 3  - after Lopez had pitched a gem in game 2. 

[arby58]

1 hour ago, nicksaviking said:

That's great.

But get me somebody that already is. Having Ober turn into that guy in September would be a great bonus. 

The 'get me somebody who already is' desire - hardly any pitcher ever starts from 'already is.' It is the natural progression that some of the younger pitchers will progress to 'already is' - and some of the 'already is' will regress to 'no longer is.' I'm fine with them projecting growth from Ober - and maybe also Ryan and Varland. Ober's stats, in particular, suggest he may well be 'already is.'

[nicksaviking]

1 hour ago, Major League Ready said:

Winder and Sands also have an option remaining so there would be no need to roster them based on options Why one of them above Staumont?

Because they regularly go more than one inning.

I think they'll need at least one of that kind of reliever in the pen, especially early in the year when it's cold and starters aren't going as deep into games.

Plus, Staumont has a 13% walk rate, which is terrible.

[nicksaviking]

1 hour ago, tony&rodney said:

Do you think the Twins will trade the player required to bring back a top of the rotation starting pitcher?  That player is Royce Lewis. 

No, you can do it without using Lewis. They got Lopez by trading Arraez. 

If Julien or Lee can't headline a trade for a better pitcher than Ober/Ryan/Paddock, than the rest of the league has gone insane. And I'm still on board with USING Ryan along with prospects to upgrade that spot in the rotation.

[chpettit19]

1 hour ago, roger said:

We don't know the exact numbers of the tv deal and I am not going to speculate.  But it is probably more than their worst case scenario.  Their current payroll is what, $115M?  Let's further assume that last year's $155M was at least $10M greater than they wanted.  None of us know what their books say, but that might have put them at break-even or even a tiny loss. 

I also understand there are concerns for dollars in 2025 and beyond.  But, it looks like they would have room to have that discussion with Boras like they did two years ago and sign either Montgomery or Snell (both are still unsigned, right?) to that one year deal for say, $20M with a few kickers.  

Payroll is roughly 125 now. Dave St Peter had an interview on the TV deal and current payroll situation yesterday with The Athletic and basically stated that they weren't going to be adding to the payroll at this point. "But I can’t point to a specific change in strategy. I think it’s more likely than not that the reality is that any impact from our TV deal, relative to our short-term player investments, is going to probably be limited." is the exact quote from the article. I think we need to give up on any hopes of a meaningful addition at this time.

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1 minute ago, chpettit19 said:

Payroll is roughly 125 now. Dave St Peter had an interview on the TV deal and current payroll situation yesterday with The Athletic and basically stated that they weren't going to be adding to the payroll at this point. "But I can’t point to a specific change in strategy. I think it’s more likely than not that the reality is that any impact from our TV deal, relative to our short-term player investments, is going to probably be limited." is the exact quote from the article. I think we need to give up on any hopes of a meaningful addition at this time.

And it was reported that the TV deal went from 50M to 40M last I heard.

So TV revenue drops 10M and payroll drops 25M. Solid math St. Peter.