Projecting the 2024 Minnesota Twins Opening Day Roster: Version 2.0

The Twins really need another arm at the top of the rotation. Without it we will get back to our losing ways in the playoffs.  Also a right handed bat is needed to balance the outfield. 

This team has a lot of promise with their youth, but I also think it’s not improved from the roster we saw one year ago.  

Too bad they haven't upgraded their starters more.  Way too many question marks.  Relying on hope and hype.  I hope I'm wrong but this could be their big problem area.  Go Twins!

I like the outfielders listed here.  I previously thought Austin Martin should be on this list but having him "waiting in the wings" is not a bad thing.  I also think DaShawn Keirsey would be a capable 4th outfielder.......and a lot of value to the roster(speed) if he was needed.

I am impressed with our depth. The BPen is stacked with options and guys just getting to their prime. Honestly, the OF probably improved with the Gordon trade.  It forces Baldelli to make a decision on who to take a chance on as the 4th true OF since Castro is a super util lock. Its also a lock that we will use 9 SP over the 162 games so let the rotation begin. Its gonna be an exciting season!!! 

If a RH OF bat is not added, then one of Larnach and Martin (the only real position battle of ST) makes the team and the other plus Keirsey is the extent of our theoretical OF depth in AAA. All three of those players are unproven at the MLB level. With uncertainty about both Buxton’s health and Wallner’s sophomore season, our OF depth is insufficient. It would be smart to add a RH OF bat.  Sadly, Soler is signing a 3 yr deal with the Giants.

The starting staff is not only set, but solid with a true #1, possibly three #2 or #3 types, and two #5s who will both see plenty of starts this season,  Adding an additional arm now would only push Varland further down the SP chain - which is not what the FO wants. The goal is to get through the first several months with the six bonafide starters and then, if there are injuries or performance stumbles, see what SWR, Festa, Headrick and others can bring to the table or, alternatively, look to the trade market.

Barring injury, the reliever lineup is set. If Staumont is not ready, then there will be a battle for the final spot.

If all goes well, ST will be pretty boring. Let’s hope so.

I was in favor of the Gordon trade but seeing Larnach in that extra OF spot makes me uneasy. Larnach should be down in AAA learning how to hit the curve. Maybe we'll be lucky & he'll figure it out early in the MLB.

Rotation has a bunch of 5th SP but not the SP we needed. BP is in the best shape we have ever been in.

I looked at the Fangraph projections. We are in good shape at key positions at 3B, SS, CF, & pitching, we are 15th in the others at C & 2B. 1B & DH we didn't fare well. We are in good shape at RF & poor shape at LF. I'm hoping for a quick Martin call-up to help out our RH-hitting needs in the OF. Keeping Polanco would have greatly helped our 2B ranking & Moving Julien to 1B/DH would greatly help our poor 1B/ DH showing. Because of Kiriloff's injury history, it has hindered his ranking, IMO Kiriloff will have a healthy & successful season better than what's projected.

I'd really really like Jose Miranda to make the OD roster. If he's back to his 2022 self, this lineup gets a lot scarier and a lot deeper. That's not to say that if he doesn't make it, I'll think its the wrong decision, but just that if he plays himself into a roster spot, that really matters.

Wallner has clearly jumped ahead of Larnach.  We have at least 3 RH OF bats in or ready for MLB so there isn't a NEED to go outside the org to get one.  Best case scenario is Ober, Ryan and Paddack all out perform expectations.  It could be a fearsome foursome with Pablo!!

I am going to take a leap and say they still sign another starter.

12 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

My bet would be Wallner is your starting LFer while Larnach gets early DH ABs against righties if he shows something in spring.

Yeah, DH is an interesting question for this ball club. It really looks to be shaping up to be a rotation primarily among a handful of players.  Against RHs, Santana/Kiriloff (whoever is not playing 1B), Larnach (provided he makes the team) and switch hitter Castro (but he is our only CF backup) should see a lot of ABs. Against LHs, Santana, Jeffers and Buxton could be top choices.

Assuming 70% or so of starts are by RHers, Buxton could start 60% of those games in CF (so about 80 games) and be the primary DH against LHs (say another 30 games).

If the plan is to use Buxton or Castro as the DH, and Kepler is not willing to move to CF as needed, Martin is the better last choice for the roster.  

1 hour ago, LewFordLives said:

Something has got to give with Wallner and Larnach. Pick one or the other.

Your right.... they need to move Kepler... LOL 

1 hour ago, Whitey333 said:

Too bad they haven't upgraded their starters more.  Way too many question marks.  Relying on hope and hype.  I hope I'm wrong but this could be their big problem area.  Go Twins!

Way too many questions marks regarding what? SP - we have subtracted Gray and Maeda,  have added Desclafani and Paddack.  You also have Varland who could take step forward.  

Bats wise we have less questions.  Buxton appears healthier, you have Julien, Lewis and Correa in the infield.  Kiriloff is platoon with Santana.  You have a strong catcher Duo,  hopefully vazquez bat shows up a bit more this year.  Then outfield looks pretty solid.  No offense I see no quesion marks in the bullpen.  This is the best constructed team in years.  Doesn't mean we have some things to tweak.  

37 minutes ago, Doctor Gast said:

I was in favor of the Gordon trade but seeing Larnach in that extra OF spot makes me uneasy. Larnach should be down in AAA learning how to hit the curve. Maybe we'll be lucky & he'll figure it out early in the MLB.

The difference between Gordon and Larnach in projected value is probably minimal. Gordon only seemed to have the last roster spot locked down because he was out of options and it seemed that the FO wasn't ready to give up on him.

Given what Larnach has done at AAA, I don't think he has much to learn there, he just needs something to click at the MLB level. I do think he has made gradual progress in the majors, but it's not clear that he'll ever fully turn the corner of becoming an MLB regular.

I don't think he has the last roster spot locked down though. The Gordon trade would certainly seem to have cleared a spot for a possible upgrade. Honestly, MAT still makes a lot of sense. There's not really a clearly better offensive RHH OF upgrade in the FA market.

It feels like there is still one more move coming fornthe outfield, but I'm not sure it's going to be particularly impactful.

1 hour ago, arby58 said:

I've said it before and I'll say it again - Bailey Ober can be that 'another arm at the top of the rotation.' His stats compare pretty nicely with Gray's from last year. Yes, Gray had an 'other worldly' ERA AT 2.79, but Ober's 3.43 is plenty good as well. They both won 8 games, and while Gray's WAR (5.3) was much higher than Ober's 3.0, Ober only threw 144 innings to Gray's 184. They both averaged a K an inning, and Ober's WHIP was actually better (1.067 to 1.147). I think Ober was on the cusp of being a dominant pitcher last year until he sort of ran out of gas in September. If he is up to a bit larger workload, he has the tools to be a number 2 starter.

I don't understand how the roster is not improved, either. The bullpen has much greater depth, which should offset less depth in starting pitching. The offense, with some return to form from Correa, a hoped-for better Buxton, and far more at bats for Lewis, Julien, and Wallner should be at least somewhat improved. 

The problem with this logic is if Ober is taking Gray's spot as the clear #2, or even 1b. Who then takes Ober's spot? Let me guess, Ryan? If Ryan takes over as the #3 for Ober, who then takes the #4 for Ryan? Paddock? (I do like Paddock and think he has great stuff so this could happen if he stays healthy.) Then DeSclafani takes Maeda's spot as the #5. I wouldn't disagree that this could potentially happen but using this scenario you're expecting 4 of the Twins starting staff to have better seasons than last year. That's just not going to happen. In 2023, the Twins had an above avg #2, whether you consider Lopez or Gray the #2, Ober put up great numbers for a #3, Ryan put up solid numbers for a #4. Basically moving them each 1 spot up in the rotation makes them no longer great compared to other #2 or #3 starters across the league. 

25 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

As of today I think this is exactly what the Twins opening day roster would look like. Staumont being the only question mark with his health. With Soler signing with San Fran I'm out on the rest of the realistic FA targets. If they can get Snell, Montgomery, or Bellinger on short-term deals I hope they do it, but I find that nearly impossible to believe. I suppose I wouldn't be mad with a JD Martinez signing, but that's it. No interest in any of the RH OF bats still on the market. If they aren't bringing in any of the 4 names I mentioned I don't think there's value in any of the other guys.

I hope they've moved on from the "Buxton as full-time DH" idea from last year. If his legs are too hurt to play CF just put him on the IL because not having his legs clearly hurts his hitting. If the plan is for Buxton to be IL'd if he can't play CF regularly then the CF question comes down to veteran CF signing (MAT or Duvall as most likely options) or the young depth. I've been like a broken record around here in not wanting to clear spots on the opening day roster for rookies, but I prefer giving Martin a shot for an in-season Buxton IL stint over going back to the MAT well or hoping Duvall can handle CF still. 

I'm good with having Larnach as the 5th OFer. Castro is the part-time CFer while Buxton is on the roster so I'm not sure why they need another CF option on the roster. Farmer is covering 2B, 3B, and SS while Santana and Kirilloff split 1B. Shouldn't need to force another CF option on the roster, in my opinion. Because I'm against the proactive protecting of Buxton I don't think there should be a need for another CFer. They've tried that and he gets hurt anyways. It's time to just let him go like everyone else. Don't limit him to 50 of the first 60 games only for him to get injured in game 61 anyways and go on the IL. I think the lineup has an open spot against both righties and lefties so I'm fine with Larnach getting his 1 last chance to show what he can do by being the DH against righties. I care more about the lineup against righties than I do against lefties. This will also force them to let one or 2 of the young lefties actually get some experience against lefthanded pitching. So I think Larnach makes sense because he isn't redundant with Wallner and Kepler when there's a DH spot available.

The rotation is my concern. I get why folks have hope in Ryan and Ober, but I'm not sold yet. I think they're both very talented, but Ryan faded in 2022 and 2023 (yes, I know he was likely hurt in 2023) and Ober is coming off by far his most innings ever while having faded himself down the stretch. I can't expect Paddack to throw a full season and still be in top shape for the playoffs. And DeSclafani feels like a throwback to the days they were bringing in Bundy and Archer. I was hoping this team was past those days. I like Varland, but I don't think he's ever going to be a playoff rotation guy. I'm happy with him as the 6th starter and think that's perfect for him now before they determine his bullpen vs rotation fate for 2025 and beyond. The playoffs are what I care about now and there's too much risk in this rotation for my liking. Yes, I can see the upside in Ryan, Ober, and Paddack, and I'm happy to have them as the trio fighting for the #3 and 4 spots in a playoff rotation, but needing all 3 of them to step up and still be close to full strength in October is too much risk for my liking for a team coming off an ALDS appearance.

Love the depth of the bullpen, but I'm never sold on a bullpen until August or September because 95% of them are just too volatile year to year. This is the same approach they've always had of stockpiling options and then they'll work through them through July to find their mix for the stretch run. I like the strategy. I like what they've done. But ranking bullpens in February is a fool's errand. They are far better setup than typically, though. So I'm a fan there.

Overall I'm with Fangraphs, though. Too many question marks on this team and I don't think they're significantly better or worse than last year. 84-88 wins is where I'd project this roster.

I apologise to all Twins fans for jinxing the season, but I will take the over and a division crown.

There is certainly a lot of performance risk in this lineup and not a tremendous amount of bankable depth, but the strength of this team will be its pitching, and, specifically, the pen.  I’ve been fairly vocal on the TD about how a deep, shutdown pen is the key to added wins in the 5-6 inning starter era.  This pen could run 12 deep with a solid six being high leverage options.  If the starters can average 5-6 innings a game and an ERA of 4.00 or less, there should be enough offense and bullpen success to carry this team to over 88 wins.