Twins Daily 2024 Top Prospects: #3.5 Gabriel González, OF

[Cody Schoenmann]

Today, we look at the newest Twins top prospect. Find out what made the 20-year-old outfielder so enticing that we were forced to wedge him into our Twins Daily prospect rankings at such a high, unique place.

Image courtesy of Everett Aqua Sox

New beginnings! Scary to some, enticing to others, few phenomenae are stronger than novelty. Acquired alongside fellow prospect Darren Bowen and veteran pitchers Anthony DeSclafani and Justin Topa in the trade that sent dearly departed second baseman Jorge Polanco to the Seattle Mariners, this 20-year-old outfield prospect has earned the third-and-a-half (is that right?) spot in our 2024 top prospect rankings.

Gabriel Gonzalez
Age: 20 (DOB: 01/04/2004)
2023 Stats (A, A+): 535 PA, .298/.361/.476, 142 H, 23 2B, 18 HR, 10 SB, 116 wRC+
ETA: 2026
2023 Ranking: NR

National Top 100 Rankings
BA: NR | MLB: 79 | ATH: 96 | BP: NR

What's to Like
Signed as a 17-year-old from Venezuela for $1.3 million, González joined the Mariners organization on Feb. 5, 2021. Upon signing, González began his professional career with the organization's Dominican Summer League club, hitting .287/.371/.521 with seven home runs, a 9.5% walk rate, 16.3% strikeout rate, .234 isolated power (ISO), and 141 wRC+ over 221 plate appearances. 

Since his debut season, "El Dron" has progressed from the Florida Complex team to High-A in less than two years. Although the now-20-year-old was likely pushed too quickly through the Mariners system (you'll find out why later), he has been able to excel at nearly every level. Most notably, González thrived last season with the Mariners' Low-A team, showing a knack for making contact at a significant rate.

Over 485 combined plate appearances with the Low-A Modesto Nuts, González generated an impressive 13.8% strikeout rate. His refined approach at the plate helped him thrive in Low-A, hitting .348/.403/.530 with 11 home runs and 24 doubles in his time there. González has the profile of a power-hitting corner outfielder, and while his home run numbers don't pop off the page, there is reason to suspect he could top 20 home runs his first season in the Twins' system. 

Although González is listed as 5-foot-10 and 165 pounds, he is more filled out than those outdated measurements would insinuate. Defensively, he will be limited to a corner outfield spot--if he doesn't undergo a complete transition to becoming a first base/designated hitter prototype. Although sliding to a position lower on the defensive spectrum is a negative occurrence, González's elite hand-eye coordination and overall hitting profile suggest he could seamlessly transform into a high-power, high-walk-rate slugger capable of carrying the weight of deficient defensive value. Evidently, González's calling card is his bat, so don't be surprised if he can unlock a new gear with the Twins' player development staff, who are known to accentuate hitting prospects' strengths.

What's Left to Work On
González swings at a high volume of pitches, even outside the zone. Although he could mask this shortcoming in lower minor-league levels, High-A pitchers exploited his desire to swing the bat. With the High-A Everett AquaSox, González's slash line dropped to an uninspiring .215/.290/.387. González also struggles to generate walks, as evidenced by an insipid 5.1% walk rate. His tendency to swing at pitches outside the zone is the primary knock on his offensive profile and should be monitored as he enters the Twins' pipeline.

Twins Daily's Jamie Cameron noted in his post-trade breakdown of González that the former Seattle prospect has "relatively mild" platoon splits. Evidenced by his .916 OPS against left-handed pitchers in the minors, González hits opposite-handed pitchers well. In contrast, he generated an .803 OPS against right-handed pitchers. A 113-point difference is significant, but with one number being elite and the other above-average, there is no genuine concern that he will be limited to being a platoon bat if he reaches MLB.

Finally, as alluded to earlier, González (a below-average runner) is limited defensively, meaning he will likely continue to move down the defensive spectrum. Regardless, with González being only 20 and maxing out at High-A last season, nothing is a sure thing. He could easily surprise us and maintain the speed and glove to stay in the outfield, or he might need to transition to first base. 

What's Next
González will likely begin his first Twins season in High-A with the Cedar Rapid Kernels, playing right field and hitting in the heart of the Kernels' order alongside fellow prospects Kala'i Rosario, Luke Keaschall, and Andrew Cossetti.

It is too early to know what adjustments the Twins will have Cedar Rapids coaches help González make, but it is fair to assume they will attempt to emphasize having him swing more selectively. The Twins highly value hitting the ball hard and in the air, so they will undoubtedly have González lean into his plus raw power tool to maximize his ability to hit the ball over the fence. Could he eventually become part of a trade package for a starting pitcher like Mitch Keller or Jesús Luzardo? We shall see, but for now, he is one of the best position player prospects in the Twins minor league system.

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What do you think of González and his future? Will he continue as an outfielder or transition into a first baseman? Which of his glows and areas of growth intrigue you the most? Was rating him as the Twins' third-and-a-half best prospect fair? How do you think his first season with Twins player development will go? Join the discussion and comment below.

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[SteveLV]

I would not be surprised to see him flipped if the Twins make a move for some more pitching.  He seems to be a bit of a boom or bust type of prospect.  Hope he does well!

[Karbo]

sounds like he swings like Eddie Rosario, at anything close. He's young enough to figure it out if he's coachable. Just read the Athletic has our minor league talent rated in the bottom 1/2 (barely) in the league. That surprised me a bit after reading about the kids here.

[arby58]

9 minutes ago, Karbo said:

sounds like he swings like Eddie Rosario, at anything close. He's young enough to figure it out if he's coachable. Just read the Athletic has our minor league talent rated in the bottom 1/2 (barely) in the league. That surprised me a bit after reading about the kids here.

Minor league system rankings are highly subjective - are you looking at overall depth, high impact players, performance within the league, etc? By contrast, the ESPN ranking has the Twins 9th (and the Tigers 3rd). Pretty much everybody has the Orioles 1st - it helps to be drafting at/near the top for several years in a row.

[CCHOF5yearstoolate]

A little bit of patience at the plate would go a long way for Gabby. His first taste of High-A was a little rough, but he was the 3rd youngest player in all of High-A and an unlucky .233 BABIP there didn't help his case.

It looks like he has some lower-half noise to clean up in his swing, but the hands are there. 

Whether he's traded as part of a package for a front-end starting pitcher or the Twins continue to develop him into a much needed right handed outfielder, this looks like a very promising pickup. 

[HrbieFan]

I'm not a strong believer in his bat skills long term. Hope I'm wrong, but there is just too much miss in his swing and his swing has too much effort. 

[Nashvilletwin]

My vote is that he sticks around at least this year and possibly quite a bit longer in the Twins system. Why?

1. Being young for his level, his value should only rise as he gets more selective and proves his hitting tool. His trade value should be projected to rise even if he falls out of the top 100.

2. Our outfield depth is really not that great. We have three decent major league starters, but all three have big risks via their futures (Buxton - health, Kepler - won’t be here, Wallner - fully making the leap).  After that, near term depth is a bit dicey with Castro, Gordon, Martin, Larnach, Keirsey, etc.  It’s not clear that any one of them will ever be an above average MLB outfielder. So, Gabby fits in well with the next group of Jenkins, Rodríguez, Winokur and Rosario.  It’s very possible that at least two of this group of five prospects will need to be starters in our outfield by 2026.

3. The Twins like to acquire players whom they think they can tweak to unlock a top tool. Gabby’s top tool - hitting - happens to be the most important one. The Twins are betting they can transform that tool into better hitting plus power.

Gabby was specifically part of the Polanco trade for a reason: he has the potential to fill a critical role and perform at a top level on the varsity for many years after Polanco, Topa and DeSclafani are long gone.

[MinnInPa]

another K King ??..yeah we really need more of those

[rv78]

González's calling card is his bat, so don't be surprised if he can unlock a new gear with the Twins' player development staff, who are known to accentuate hitting prospects' strengths.

 

Yes, that's why we have so many players at the major league level who hit .230 or less.

[Dman]

IMO the hit tool is the most important tool.  Guys that put the bat on the ball all over the zone are hard to find.  It seems to be a skill you have or don't have as it is hard to teach beyond a certain point.  Lumped in with hit tool is plate discipline, without it you get results more like Austidillo (The Turtle) rather than Arraez.  MIranda had the same issues in the Minors and struggled again in the Majors.  If Gonzalez is ever going to make it he is going to have to have better plate discipline.  Maybe he does just enough like Eddie Rosario did without it, but he has a chance to be a special bat if he can force pitchers to give him good pitches to hit.

[CCHOF5yearstoolate]

33 minutes ago, HrbieFan said:

I'm not a strong believer in his bat skills long term. Hope I'm wrong, but there is just too much miss in his swing and his swing has too much effort. 

 

13 minutes ago, MinnInPa said:

another K King ??..yeah we really need more of those

Not sure what you guys are reading if you think he's a high strikeout guy. In Low-A he was in the top 10 for (lowest) strikeout rate, and even after jumping a level and being 3.5 years younger than the average High-A player he was in the 65th-70th percentile for (lowest) strikeout rate. Absolutely not a K King or a swing and miss guy. 

[Trov]

I do not know if Twins will look to flip him, but from what I read he seems to be a guy that will be aggressive at plate and can hit pitches in all zones. The question for him will be can he make enough contact when pitchers start throwing nothing but breaking pitches that break out of the zone, or will he be able to stay off them.  I am not one that says a player cannot be successful at MLB level if they expand the zone, but it is very rare.  There are some that have had HOF careers and have been known to expand the zone.  Again, they had super star abilities to do it.  The big issue is either committing one way or the other in my opinion.  If you are going to be a guy that chases out of the zone then do it, and work on making good contact when doing it.  It is the swinging at a breaking pitch in dirt that you cannot hit, or swinging at a pitch like it is fastball when it is way out of the zone that becomes issues. 

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

1 hour ago, Karbo said:

sounds like he swings like Eddie Rosario, at anything close. He's young enough to figure it out if he's coachable. Just read the Athletic has our minor league talent rated in the bottom 1/2 (barely) in the league. That surprised me a bit after reading about the kids here.

Its a bad take.  Also after a full season of these kids playing and another draft,  I am firmly of the opinion that this will be a top 10 possibly top 5 Farm by the end of the year but I am assuming Lee is still not a full time member of the MLB yet and still a prospect.  

[Fatbat]

He seems like a very driven young man. As his development continues, hopefully the defensive skill set is grown as much as his power at the plate. This next crop of A and AA OF ballers is going to be exciting to watch in the next 2-3 years!  Could have 6-8 MLB debut with us or traded away. As long as we keep the cream of the crop. 

[DJL44]

The description gives me Delmon Young flashbacks. If they can get him to be more selective they could have another Dan Ford. Looks like he has enough bat for CF and barely enough glove for LF.

[chpettit19]

It sounds like his future is likely 100% dependent on his bat. And that is very likely nearly 100% dependent on his plate discipline. I love guys that can get the barrel to the ball in all areas of the zone. But if you're not able to make pitchers throw it in the zone you're negating your own ability. All of his numbers are tough to really decipher because of his lack of discipline. Low BABIP isn't necessarily bad luck. It could be a result of a lot of really poor contact because you're swinging at everything and hitting 6 hoppers to infielders or soft flies to the OF. His concerning exit velo numbers discussed by other prospect evaluators could be a victim of the same thing.

He feels very much like Miranda, with maybe a little more pop in his bat. The Twins minor league staff were able to get Miranda to be more selective at AA and his performance took off. If they're able to do the same with Gonzalez he would likely have the same sort of results, and if there's a little more power in his bat than Miranda has it'd be very exciting. It sounds like he has the core, mostly unteachable bat to ball skills that big time hitters have, and that's a great place to be starting from. Now we'll see how well he's able to adjust his approach to really bring out the most in his bat to ball skills. Will be fun to follow him through the system. Or fun to see a big time starting pitcher come to the Twins in return for him (and others) if that's the route they go.

[CCHOF5yearstoolate]

23 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

It sounds like his future is likely 100% dependent on his bat. And that is very likely nearly 100% dependent on his plate discipline. I love guys that can get the barrel to the ball in all areas of the zone. But if you're not able to make pitchers throw it in the zone you're negating your own ability. All of his numbers are tough to really decipher because of his lack of discipline. Low BABIP isn't necessarily bad luck. It could be a result of a lot of really poor contact because you're swinging at everything and hitting 6 hoppers to infielders or soft flies to the OF. His concerning exit velo numbers discussed by other prospect evaluators could be a victim of the same thing.

He feels very much like Miranda, with maybe a little more pop in his bat. The Twins minor league staff were able to get Miranda to be more selective at AA and his performance took off. If they're able to do the same with Gonzalez he would likely have the same sort of results, and if there's a little more power in his bat than Miranda has it'd be very exciting. It sounds like he has the core, mostly unteachable bat to ball skills that big time hitters have, and that's a great place to be starting from. Now we'll see how well he's able to adjust his approach to really bring out the most in his bat to ball skills. Will be fun to follow him through the system. Or fun to see a big time starting pitcher come to the Twins in return for him (and others) if that's the route they go.

True, but his previous lowest BABIP was .313 and .233 was the 15th lowest of 490 hitters with 100+ PA in High-A. I'd wager most of that low BABIP is due to luck and being very young for the level, and he should come back to somewhere in the low .300's. 

His batted ball numbers in High-A were very close to his first stint at Low-A, which makes me think it's just part of him getting used to a new level of ball. 

2022 Low-A: 18.6% LD, 53.6% GB, 27.8% FB, 18.5% IFFB (.330 BABIP)

2023 High-A: 19.5% LD, 53.4% GB, 27.1% FB%, 13.9% IFFB (.233 BABIP)

2023 Low-A: 22.1% LD, 44.7% GB, 33.2% FB, 10.7% IFFB (.379 BABIP)

I also see that Baseball America wrote he had a 116 mph max exit velocity, which is really good even for the majors, but I know there is some concern about his 50th/90th percentile EV which basically means to me that he is too good at making contact on bad pitches. 

Totally agree with the Miranda comp. If he can be selective and limit the contact on pitches in bad locations, he's got a lot of potential. 

[chpettit19]

3 minutes ago, CCHOF5yearstoolate said:

True, but his previous lowest BABIP was .313 and .233 was the 15th lowest of 490 hitters with 100+ PA in High-A. I'd wager most of that low BABIP is due to luck and being very young for the level, and he should come back to somewhere in the low .300's. 

His batted ball numbers in High-A were very close to his first stint at Low-A, which makes me think it's just part of him getting used to a new level of ball. 

2022 Low-A: 18.6% LD, 53.6% GB, 27.8% FB, 18.5% IFFB (.330 BABIP)

2023 High-A: 19.5% LD, 53.4% GB, 27.1% FB%, 13.9% IFFB (.233 BABIP)

2023 Low-A: 22.1% LD, 44.7% GB, 33.2% FB, 10.7% IFFB (.379 BABIP)

I also see that Baseball America wrote he had a 116 mph max exit velocity, which is really good even for the majors, but I know there is some concern about his 50th/90th percentile EV which basically means to me that he is too good at making contact on bad pitches. 

Totally agree with the Miranda comp. If he can be selective and limit the contact on pitches in bad locations, he's got a lot of potential. 

Yeah, I'm not saying 1 way or another what caused his BABIP decrease. People have been claiming Kepler is "unlucky" for a decade because of his when the truth is he just doesn't hit the ball well enough. Gonzalez's 90th percentile EV is very concerning. And could very well be because he hits a lot of bad pitches. I'm not making any predictions on him. He has potential. But he also has some pretty bright red flags at this point of his career. He's a very wide variance prospect. I hope the Twins, or whoever he's with, are able to help him reach the top part of his outcome spectrum. He'd be very fun to watch if he reaches his peak. But he has a long ways to go, and real work to do. I look forward to following his journey.

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

44 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

It sounds like his future is likely 100% dependent on his bat. And that is very likely nearly 100% dependent on his plate discipline. I love guys that can get the barrel to the ball in all areas of the zone. But if you're not able to make pitchers throw it in the zone you're negating your own ability. All of his numbers are tough to really decipher because of his lack of discipline. Low BABIP isn't necessarily bad luck. It could be a result of a lot of really poor contact because you're swinging at everything and hitting 6 hoppers to infielders or soft flies to the OF. His concerning exit velo numbers discussed by other prospect evaluators could be a victim of the same thing.

He feels very much like Miranda, with maybe a little more pop in his bat. The Twins minor league staff were able to get Miranda to be more selective at AA and his performance took off. If they're able to do the same with Gonzalez he would likely have the same sort of results, and if there's a little more power in his bat than Miranda has it'd be very exciting. It sounds like he has the core, mostly unteachable bat to ball skills that big time hitters have, and that's a great place to be starting from. Now we'll see how well he's able to adjust his approach to really bring out the most in his bat to ball skills. Will be fun to follow him through the system. Or fun to see a big time starting pitcher come to the Twins in return for him (and others) if that's the route they go.

Almost completely agree with your take.  I do think he can play in the outfield with his elite arm even with a bit of poor foot speed.   

As to his bat and prospectus as a player,  a top 150 ranking is about right.  He has the ability to be one of the top hitters . . . if and its a bit if . . . he can develop more plate discipline.  He crushes anything in the zone. He can crush somethings out of the zone similar to Vlad Guerrero, but he also has lots of weak contact to add in.  

Its a great project for AA.   I think he will be much more developed and with more training will show much better than he did in last years cup of tea.  Now the question is can he be elite like he was in A ball?   That is the question.  

[MMMordabito]

1 hour ago, MinnInPa said:

another K King ??..yeah we really need more of those

How is that a K King?

[chpettit19]

1 minute ago, MMMordabito said:

How is that a K King?

It's not 0?

[chpettit19]

3 minutes ago, Hawkeye Bean Counter said:

Almost completely agree with your take.  I do think he can play in the outfield with his elite arm even with a bit of poor foot speed.   

As to his bat and prospectus as a player,  a top 150 ranking is about right.  He has the ability to be one of the top hitters . . . if and its a bit if . . . he can develop more plate discipline.  He crushes anything in the zone. He can crush somethings out of the zone similar to Vlad Guerrero, but he also has lots of weak contact to add in.  

Its a great project for AA.   I think he will be much more developed and with more training will show much better than he did in last years cup of tea.  Now the question is can he be elite like he was in A ball?   That is the question.  

I certainly expect him to stick in RF for as long as he can and not become a DH type anytime soon, but the Harold Ramirez comp I saw somewhere (Fangraphs, maybe?) feels about right. Same physical stature and defensive skills and Ramirez has gradually worked his way from CF, to cOF, to 1B, to DH. If you can hit like we hope Gonzalez can hit I'm good with you being primarily a DH when you reach your late 20s after having bounced around the field for a bit. Never going to be a defensive plus, but as long as he can remain a reasonable defensive option for a while his bat will have the chance to carry him.

[Tibs]

We need to get him and Emmanuel Rodriguez in a room to trade ideas on when to swing at pitches

[CCHOF5yearstoolate]

28 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

Yeah, I'm not saying 1 way or another what caused his BABIP decrease. People have been claiming Kepler is "unlucky" for a decade because of his when the truth is he just doesn't hit the ball well enough. Gonzalez's 90th percentile EV is very concerning. And could very well be because he hits a lot of bad pitches. I'm not making any predictions on him. He has potential. But he also has some pretty bright red flags at this point of his career. He's a very wide variance prospect. I hope the Twins, or whoever he's with, are able to help him reach the top part of his outcome spectrum. He'd be very fun to watch if he reaches his peak. But he has a long ways to go, and real work to do. I look forward to following his journey.

I don't know EV percentiles well enough to know if they are strong predictive indicators for 19 year olds in High-A, but I'm more willing to give him the benefit of the doubt given his age.

Totally agree he's a wide variance prospect, since outside of an elite arm he doesn't have much else going for him. Michael Cuddyer comes to mind. 

[tony&rodney]

Curious. Who among the many on/connected in any fashion with Twins Daily have seen Gonzalez play in a game or via television (milb.com)? I just wonder if it might be early to evaluate him. To be fair, I have not personally seen Walker Jenkins, Charlee Soto, Brandon Winokur, or Connor Prielipp play. Just wondered about the evaluations, not questioning really.

[sweetmusicviola16]

Gonzalez is certainly a wild card. I don't think even one of us has any idea what we have. I'm surprised he got on the Top 20 list at all.

Onto E Rod.

[jmlease1]

I think this is a little high for GG; I would have him below Raya and probably below Festa as well, for now. that's not really a knock on his talent, more of a recognition of theirs...but I do think the variance in opinions on this prospect is something that gives me some pause.

there are good evaluators who think he's pretty overrated and that his struggles at High A were reflective of who he is as a player, and that he matured physically more than most players at his age resulting in his success at low A. There are others who think he has a superior hit tool and that his contact skills at his age project well. MLB.com had him as a Top 100 prospect as did KLaw at the Athletic; I'm guessing FanGraphs will not.

It's going to be pretty interesting to see how he does this season. (I will say I'm not expecting him to be hitting with Rosario, whom I think will be playing in AA with E-Rod) Do his EVs improve with a little more experience in high A and some tweaks to his approach? Is he able to improve his plate discipline and lay off pitches outside of the zone? Or will he hack away not be able to be impactful by putting the bat on everything, whether it's a good pitch to hit or not?

He's #5.5 for me, though, not 3.5 if we're inserting him into the rankings. The upside is good, the talent is there but there are enough concerns to keep him below Raya & Festa for me.

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

12 minutes ago, Tibs said:

We need to get him and Emmanuel Rodriguez in a room to trade ideas on when to swing at pitches

I would agree if you put those 2 together into 1,  you would have potential hall of famer.  

[chpettit19]

2 minutes ago, CCHOF5yearstoolate said:

I don't know EV percentiles well enough to know if they are strong predictive indicators for 19 year olds in High-A, but I'm more willing to give him the benefit of the doubt given his age.

Totally agree he's a wide variance prospect, since outside of an elite arm he doesn't have much else going for him. Michael Cuddyer comes to mind. 

Obviously lots of factors for how predictive those things are for young players, and it's a lot of marrying human scouting/projections with the numbers. The concern with him is that he's more physically developed than most 19 year olds so the human scouting/projection read on him is that there's not much more left for him to go from a physical projection standpoint.

So when you connect that with his less than ideal 90th percentile EVs it becomes a concern. There is a general progression those things take between the ages of 18 and 21, but that's tied to physical growth at those ages. So if he's already reached his physical growth peak it likely means his EVs have peaked, unless it's being held back by the swing decisions. So lots of factors going into reading that stuff. I'd assume if the Twins are really as excited as they say about him they expect his EVs to be held back by his swing decisions since they're pretty widely known to be high on exit velos when grading young players. But obviously it's all very much an educated guessing game for any 19 year old.

[roger]

The number that stuck out to me was 535 plate appearances.  He played a lot of baseball last year.  Expect there were a few, but don't recall any of the better Twins prospects playing that much.

Assume that ERod will be #3.  In a direct comparison, how do they compare?  Would be great if one of the two becomes a very good player for the Twins a couple years from now.