Sielk

Yes, he apparently has/had an arm issue that forces him to play DH most of the time.

Walker JenkinsEmmanuel RodriguezBrooks LeeDavid FestaLuke KeaschallGabriel GonzalezMarco RayaCharlee SotoDanny De AndradeZebby MatthewsAustin MartinRicardo OlivarRayne DonconCory LewisAndrew MorrisBrandon WinokurYasser MercedesTanner SchobelKala'i RosarioDarren Bowen Some notes on a few interesting prospects: Emma continues to be incredible. I love him as a prospect. After a short "slump" it seems he is back to hitting for power and drawing two walks per game. OPS over 1.000. Triple-A soon? Please? Luke Keaschall is another prospect in need of a promotion, but somehow it doesn't appear like there's a lot of talk about him? Strange, because more and more I think he is one of the best prospects in the system. Hitting for average, hitting for power, almost as many walks as strikeouts, great base stealer and he can even play CF... Sounds like a top prospect, doesn't it? Rayne Doncon, what a pleasant surprise... Wasn't sure what to expect of him, but love the early results. I also liked the few plays I saw him make at 3B. Strong arm. And finally, I am right back on the Yasser Mercedes hype train. He was one my favorite prospects after his great 2022. 2023 was obviously somewhat disappointing but coming to the US is a big adjustment for some of these latin players. Now he looks like he's back on track and I can't wait for his promotion to Fort Myers, which means video broadcasts and statcast data!

Their biggest signing from last year's period, Ariel Castro, is also Cuban. Maybe they're getting into it again? They still have to go to the DR or another place first, can't sign directly from Cuba. However, I get the impression that many Cuban prospects now go to the DR when they're only 14-15 years old. And then, two years later, they sign together with all the other 16- and 17-year-olds, like Castro did. Hernández is obviously different. I wonder where he will start his pro career. The DSL would maybe make for a smoother transition to pro ball, but he would be old for that league. The reporter who tweeted about him above also called him advanced at the plate, so maybe he is playing stateside right away? Would be cool.

Looks like the Twins have another big signing: Here is a little more info and video:

Fort Myers will televise all of their home games from this season on! So we should be able to watch a good amount of Winokur and other exciting prospects they will have.

It should be noted that the article made it sound as if this was about a player (or players) the Twins hadn't officially signed yet. So it's likely that we never even heard heard the name in connection with the Twins and it's not about one of our current prospects. (Which obviously doesn't guarantee that no shady stuff ever happened with a player we actually signed, but there's is no evidence for that.)

The Twins announced a few more signings:

Well, truth be told, their recent track record in IFA has been disappointing. We can discuss endlessly about the right strategy but fact is that since their big 2009 class, the Twins have signed Arráez and a few current prospects that are promising (especially ERod) and... that's it? Not great... Obviously they shared that sentiment, hence the firing of Guerrero and getting Roman Barinas instead. But patience will be required there, as Barinas is probably working on the handshake deals for 2026 right now. Still, we gotta start somewhere, right? As for current need, do we have one? I realize that you greatly value catcher defense, so Ryan Jeffers probably isn't the catcher of your dreams. But, as I mentioned, he vastly improved his throwing and I think you can make a legit argument that he is the best offensive catcher in baseball. And having a legit offensive threat at a position where the vast majority of teams get almost nothing, does carry a lot of value. Also, whatever you think about his defense, consider that the Twins still had one of the better pitching staffs in the majors in 2023...

And we have more news! The Twins announced their full Dominican and Venezuelan classes. We have eight players from the DR and eleven from Venezuela, 19 in total. If past years are any indication, I would expect more marginal signings over the next few months. But we won't know about those until we see the DSL boxscores.

Thanks for the very polite reply, Doctor Gast. Still, let me offer some counterpoints: First off, "need" is always a problematic point when it comes to prospects. That's true for the draft and it's certainly true here. Even if you believe that the Twins have a need at C, no international signee will help with that anytime soon. And predicting needs that could exist a few years down the road is next to impossible. Maybe the Twins will need a shortstop by then, because C4 has moved of the position, and Daibel de los Santos comes in handy? If you think that C is a weakness in the system, that's a fair assessment (and one I agree with). But if you try to adress that by specifically targeting catchers (and more generally, always try to fill positions of need), you really run into danger of a) signing worse players and b) creating new needs because you neglected certain positions in favor of others. And all that could be for players who don't even end up as catchers because, again, they're 16 and hard to predict. Potentially a very good one? The league is full of international superstars who signed for very little money. Ronald Acuña Jr? $100,000. José Ramírez? $50,000. And if we're just talking catchers? I looked at the 2023 WAR leaderboard for catchers at Fangraphs. The top international catcher, Francisco Álvarez, signed for 2.7 million, okay. But next up? Willson Contreras, $850,000 and Yainer Díaz (who Astros fans are very excited about) and Gabriel Moreno for $25,000 each. In general, I think you vastly overestimate how much of a known thing these young prospects really are. Maybe Ethan Salas is an exception. (I remember reading something about him playing at a higher level than even top international prospects in other years.) But apart from him, even the top prospects of any given class are more the idea of a player that they could become rather than fully formed players with developed traits. We (and I'm often guilty of this, too) tend to look at scouting reports or their stats on Fangraphs and we see: "Has a good fastball, but his slider needs work." or we look at their CS% and think to ourselves: "Oh, that's really bad, he must have a weak arm." And we treat this stuff as definite traits that could be slightly improved but are otherwise part of the player. But in reality, it looks more like this: "Oh, he has come in with like 5 different pitches that he's tried out at certain times. Now let's see if we can take all this and tweak or combine everything to maybe get 2 - 3 usable major league pitches out of this." And: "Yeah, he is totally skinny right now and the current throwing technique will never work but if he grows a few inches, puts on muscles and we completely overhaul his throwing, the result might be good!" In short, there's a lot of guesswork involved what players might develop into. To prove this point, look no further than our very own Ryan Jeffers. He had below average CS% for years. Then he overhauled his throwing motion last offseason and surprise!, in 2023 he was well above average (24.5% compared to 19.8% league AVG). Jeffers was 25. You don't think still-growing teenagers can completely change their strengths? Obviously, that works the other way around as well. You sign a young catcher with all traits you could wish for and as they work their way up through the minors, you discover that he just doesn't have the quick hands you hoped for and his game calling simply isn't up to MLB standards (in my opinion the most important but very hard to predict and quantify part of catcher defense). We will see. All that said, if the Twins throw all their money at a catcher next year, I also won't be unhappy. And man, if anyone actually read through that entire thing, respect. It kept getting longer and longer...

Another name has come out. Melvin Rodríguez, RHP, from the DR.

Huh? With Victor Leal the Twins have now signed a Venezuelan catcher for three years in a row... Carlos Silva last year was even a top 50 international prospect. Obviously that didn't work out great so far but that's the point: There's just so much uncertainty with these 16-year-olds. If you spend 5 million on whoever you think the best catching prospect is, you could get Ethan Salas. But it's far more likely that your prospect either completely flames out or that he never develops the physical and mental skillset that's necessary (because all 16-year-old catchers still have a lot to learn until they're viable defenders in the big leagues). And then you have spend a lot of money on a kid that's less athletic and probably a lesser hitter than all the toolsy SS and CF that the other teams signed. So, while I wouldn't say that the Twins have necessarily been great at getting results, I completely agree with the basic premise of their IFA strategy: 1. Spread the money out and 2. if you spend a little bit more on a guy, choose a player with a position where pure athleticism carries you a long way. That's easier to predict. There is a reason why HS catchers have so much lower success rates than college ones. And these kids are even younger. And contrary to your statement about "so many very good catchers from Venezuela", I still wouldn't say that the big leagues are overflowing with them. Far better to spend on SS and CF and sign a catcher here or there for $300,000 or so. Speaking of which, the three catchers they've signed over the last three years? The third name I haven't mentioned in this post so far is Daniel Peña. You might want to check out his BRef page. He might not be Ethan Salas but I think the Twins could have something there?

Here is Daibel: So the Twins have a little over $3 million left for their other guys. Which is a lot. I would expect more signings to trickle in today and maybe in the next few days. And there are always a few kids who sign later in the signing period (which is until December).

His name is actually Daibel, not Daiber. MLB got it wrong. But he sounds exciting! There has also been another name added to the list: Murphy Hernandez, OF, Dominican Republic Oh, and we have a picture of Eduardo Beltré signing:

Only if you're treating the MLB list like the definite ranking, which you shouldn't. If you compare different draft boards, you will often find significant differences and these international prospect are even younger and therefore less predictable. Maybe the Twins think he is the 25th-best prospect. Maybe other teams think that, too. Maybe the Twins are even higher on him. And since he probably has spent the last year or two exclusively at the Twins complex, scouts likely haven't gotten any good looks at him recently. Only way to find out if this was an overpay is to wait and evaluate his performance for the next few years.