Sielk

Yes, he apparently has/had an arm issue that forces him to play DH most of the time.

Walker JenkinsEmmanuel RodriguezBrooks LeeDavid FestaLuke KeaschallGabriel GonzalezMarco RayaCharlee SotoDanny De AndradeZebby MatthewsAustin MartinRicardo OlivarRayne DonconCory LewisAndrew MorrisBrandon WinokurYasser MercedesTanner SchobelKala'i RosarioDarren Bowen Some notes on a few interesting prospects: Emma continues to be incredible. I love him as a prospect. After a short "slump" it seems he is back to hitting for power and drawing two walks per game. OPS over 1.000. Triple-A soon? Please? Luke Keaschall is another prospect in need of a promotion, but somehow it doesn't appear like there's a lot of talk about him? Strange, because more and more I think he is one of the best prospects in the system. Hitting for average, hitting for power, almost as many walks as strikeouts, great base stealer and he can even play CF... Sounds like a top prospect, doesn't it? Rayne Doncon, what a pleasant surprise... Wasn't sure what to expect of him, but love the early results. I also liked the few plays I saw him make at 3B. Strong arm. And finally, I am right back on the Yasser Mercedes hype train. He was one my favorite prospects after his great 2022. 2023 was obviously somewhat disappointing but coming to the US is a big adjustment for some of these latin players. Now he looks like he's back on track and I can't wait for his promotion to Fort Myers, which means video broadcasts and statcast data!

Their biggest signing from last year's period, Ariel Castro, is also Cuban. Maybe they're getting into it again? They still have to go to the DR or another place first, can't sign directly from Cuba. However, I get the impression that many Cuban prospects now go to the DR when they're only 14-15 years old. And then, two years later, they sign together with all the other 16- and 17-year-olds, like Castro did. Hernández is obviously different. I wonder where he will start his pro career. The DSL would maybe make for a smoother transition to pro ball, but he would be old for that league. The reporter who tweeted about him above also called him advanced at the plate, so maybe he is playing stateside right away? Would be cool.

Looks like the Twins have another big signing: Here is a little more info and video:

Fort Myers will televise all of their home games from this season on! So we should be able to watch a good amount of Winokur and other exciting prospects they will have.

It should be noted that the article made it sound as if this was about a player (or players) the Twins hadn't officially signed yet. So it's likely that we never even heard heard the name in connection with the Twins and it's not about one of our current prospects. (Which obviously doesn't guarantee that no shady stuff ever happened with a player we actually signed, but there's is no evidence for that.)

The Twins announced a few more signings:

Well, truth be told, their recent track record in IFA has been disappointing. We can discuss endlessly about the right strategy but fact is that since their big 2009 class, the Twins have signed Arráez and a few current prospects that are promising (especially ERod) and... that's it? Not great... Obviously they shared that sentiment, hence the firing of Guerrero and getting Roman Barinas instead. But patience will be required there, as Barinas is probably working on the handshake deals for 2026 right now. Still, we gotta start somewhere, right? As for current need, do we have one? I realize that you greatly value catcher defense, so Ryan Jeffers probably isn't the catcher of your dreams. But, as I mentioned, he vastly improved his throwing and I think you can make a legit argument that he is the best offensive catcher in baseball. And having a legit offensive threat at a position where the vast majority of teams get almost nothing, does carry a lot of value. Also, whatever you think about his defense, consider that the Twins still had one of the better pitching staffs in the majors in 2023...

And we have more news! The Twins announced their full Dominican and Venezuelan classes. We have eight players from the DR and eleven from Venezuela, 19 in total. If past years are any indication, I would expect more marginal signings over the next few months. But we won't know about those until we see the DSL boxscores.

Thanks for the very polite reply, Doctor Gast. Still, let me offer some counterpoints: First off, "need" is always a problematic point when it comes to prospects. That's true for the draft and it's certainly true here. Even if you believe that the Twins have a need at C, no international signee will help with that anytime soon. And predicting needs that could exist a few years down the road is next to impossible. Maybe the Twins will need a shortstop by then, because C4 has moved of the position, and Daibel de los Santos comes in handy? If you think that C is a weakness in the system, that's a fair assessment (and one I agree with). But if you try to adress that by specifically targeting catchers (and more generally, always try to fill positions of need), you really run into danger of a) signing worse players and b) creating new needs because you neglected certain positions in favor of others. And all that could be for players who don't even end up as catchers because, again, they're 16 and hard to predict. Potentially a very good one? The league is full of international superstars who signed for very little money. Ronald Acuña Jr? $100,000. José Ramírez? $50,000. And if we're just talking catchers? I looked at the 2023 WAR leaderboard for catchers at Fangraphs. The top international catcher, Francisco Álvarez, signed for 2.7 million, okay. But next up? Willson Contreras, $850,000 and Yainer Díaz (who Astros fans are very excited about) and Gabriel Moreno for $25,000 each. In general, I think you vastly overestimate how much of a known thing these young prospects really are. Maybe Ethan Salas is an exception. (I remember reading something about him playing at a higher level than even top international prospects in other years.) But apart from him, even the top prospects of any given class are more the idea of a player that they could become rather than fully formed players with developed traits. We (and I'm often guilty of this, too) tend to look at scouting reports or their stats on Fangraphs and we see: "Has a good fastball, but his slider needs work." or we look at their CS% and think to ourselves: "Oh, that's really bad, he must have a weak arm." And we treat this stuff as definite traits that could be slightly improved but are otherwise part of the player. But in reality, it looks more like this: "Oh, he has come in with like 5 different pitches that he's tried out at certain times. Now let's see if we can take all this and tweak or combine everything to maybe get 2 - 3 usable major league pitches out of this." And: "Yeah, he is totally skinny right now and the current throwing technique will never work but if he grows a few inches, puts on muscles and we completely overhaul his throwing, the result might be good!" In short, there's a lot of guesswork involved what players might develop into. To prove this point, look no further than our very own Ryan Jeffers. He had below average CS% for years. Then he overhauled his throwing motion last offseason and surprise!, in 2023 he was well above average (24.5% compared to 19.8% league AVG). Jeffers was 25. You don't think still-growing teenagers can completely change their strengths? Obviously, that works the other way around as well. You sign a young catcher with all traits you could wish for and as they work their way up through the minors, you discover that he just doesn't have the quick hands you hoped for and his game calling simply isn't up to MLB standards (in my opinion the most important but very hard to predict and quantify part of catcher defense). We will see. All that said, if the Twins throw all their money at a catcher next year, I also won't be unhappy. And man, if anyone actually read through that entire thing, respect. It kept getting longer and longer...

Another name has come out. Melvin Rodríguez, RHP, from the DR.

Huh? With Victor Leal the Twins have now signed a Venezuelan catcher for three years in a row... Carlos Silva last year was even a top 50 international prospect. Obviously that didn't work out great so far but that's the point: There's just so much uncertainty with these 16-year-olds. If you spend 5 million on whoever you think the best catching prospect is, you could get Ethan Salas. But it's far more likely that your prospect either completely flames out or that he never develops the physical and mental skillset that's necessary (because all 16-year-old catchers still have a lot to learn until they're viable defenders in the big leagues). And then you have spend a lot of money on a kid that's less athletic and probably a lesser hitter than all the toolsy SS and CF that the other teams signed. So, while I wouldn't say that the Twins have necessarily been great at getting results, I completely agree with the basic premise of their IFA strategy: 1. Spread the money out and 2. if you spend a little bit more on a guy, choose a player with a position where pure athleticism carries you a long way. That's easier to predict. There is a reason why HS catchers have so much lower success rates than college ones. And these kids are even younger. And contrary to your statement about "so many very good catchers from Venezuela", I still wouldn't say that the big leagues are overflowing with them. Far better to spend on SS and CF and sign a catcher here or there for $300,000 or so. Speaking of which, the three catchers they've signed over the last three years? The third name I haven't mentioned in this post so far is Daniel Peña. You might want to check out his BRef page. He might not be Ethan Salas but I think the Twins could have something there?

Here is Daibel: So the Twins have a little over $3 million left for their other guys. Which is a lot. I would expect more signings to trickle in today and maybe in the next few days. And there are always a few kids who sign later in the signing period (which is until December).

His name is actually Daibel, not Daiber. MLB got it wrong. But he sounds exciting! There has also been another name added to the list: Murphy Hernandez, OF, Dominican Republic Oh, and we have a picture of Eduardo Beltré signing:

Only if you're treating the MLB list like the definite ranking, which you shouldn't. If you compare different draft boards, you will often find significant differences and these international prospect are even younger and therefore less predictable. Maybe the Twins think he is the 25th-best prospect. Maybe other teams think that, too. Maybe the Twins are even higher on him. And since he probably has spent the last year or two exclusively at the Twins complex, scouts likely haven't gotten any good looks at him recently. Only way to find out if this was an overpay is to wait and evaluate his performance for the next few years.

Yes, the Twins recent track record with international pitchers (or for that matter, international players in general) isn't exactly inspiring. A big part of that is certainly due to the general focus on position players in IFA. And while the Twins have been very good at improving pitchers they traded for, I would call them stellar when it comes to developing their own drafted and signed pitchers. That said, I am looking forward to keeping an eye on Miguel Cordero this season. He was very young for his class (only 16 years old for the entire 2023 season) and had a stellar year in the DSL. Who knows, maybe he will become the international development success we have been waiting for?

Well, for all the people clamoring for pitchers, here is a pitcher: Yoel Roque, RHP, from the DR, born in 2007. Spanish scouting report: It says: - fastball around 92 mph with more than 2200 rpm and good life - curveball at 77 mph with 2300 rpm - changeup at 85 mph - projectable body, 6'2", 184 pounds at 16 years old If you want to see video, he has posted some stuff on his Instagram profile. I have no idea how good he is in relation to other prospects of this class, though.

Fun fact on Daibel de los Santos: The Twins snatched him away from the Yankees. Listen from the 39:21 minute mark (the relevant segment is about two minutes long): The Yankees guys seem pretty sad to lose him. Let's hope they're right and he is good! EDIT: I originally assumed that Barinas wouldn't have too big of an influence on the current class because the handshake deals are worked out years in advance. But since Daibel was a Yankees prospect until some time this summer, I believe, Barinas actually might have been responsible for getting him to the Twins. Interesting.

It's common for international players to agree on handshake deals with MLB teams in advance of the actual signing period, often when they are only 13-14 years old. So, while De Los Santos and Beltré haven't officially signed, it's pretty much a done deal unless something goes very wrong in the next few days.

If Jenkins can stick in center is still to be determined although I think he has more speed than most people think. It's just hard to really shine there when you're constantly compared to a true speedster like Max Clark. But from everything I have heard and read about his defense I would probably rate him and Lee very similarly: if you have a better defensive player at SS/CF, you happily move them to a corner. But if you don't, they can also do an okay job playing up the middle. Anyway, we will be able to evaluate him better in the future. But I strongly disagree with your evaluation of his offensive game. I don't know how you can look at this kid who consistently gets plus grades not only for his power but also for his hit tool, and who then followed it up with a .362 AVG and a 12.1 K% across two levels, coming directly out of HS, and reach the conclusion that Joey Gallo of all people is an apt comparison??? Because I assure you, Gallo has never even come close to that at any level, not even in seasons where he was legitimately good. The comparison isn't just off, they are completely different types of players, stylistically. Not all power is created the same way. And that's exactly why I think Jenkins is the unquestioned top prospect in this system. It's just so incredibly rare to find someone who is a legitimately great contact hitter and also has the power to hit a ton of home runs and XBH. And someone mentioned it in another thread, but since the Sabato pick in 2020 the Twins have pretty much stayed away from these all power, no hit corner players in the draft. And I don't think they explicitly tried to have their hitting prospects sell out for power either. I'm not sure why you think they would have Jenkins abandon his current balanced approach to get more power out of him than he already has? (Which is plenty, btw.) So, to sum up, there aren't that many players I would even consider moving Jenkins for. He's going to be special.

I don't even want to know what the luxury tax for such a payroll would be. 🤣

I feel like we're stuck with a difference of opinions. But I hear your points. Further weakening the offense concerns me, too. And maybe I am a little biased right now because the López trade worked out well. In past years, I have definitely often shared your opinion that a FA is preferable to spending valuable assets on a trade. My problem this year is mainly that aside from Yamamoto, there simply isn't a pitcher where I say to myself: "Yes, that's a guy I want to spend a ton of money on." And the Twins won't be able to hand out a contract like this every offseason, so I want it to be the right player. Now, the Twins might disagree with me about which player is "the right player". (And they're way smarter than me, be glad that I'm not the GM 😅) But these are just my two cents.

I didn't mean to say that handing out a big deal to a FA starter now would prevent them from extending Royce Lewis specifically, but rather: If you do that and it goes wrong, you have a lot of money tied up in a player that doesn't do much for you and that will prevent you from doing something that you like. A Lewis extension just being the example used here. I'm not against spending big on a pitcher but I would prefer it being a pitcher I have confidence in to be able to become a true front-line starter, even if the results aren't quite there yet. (Young, lots of Ks, nasty stuff...) And I think there is a higher chance of getting such a starter in a trade. I feel rather lukewarm about the FA class. Regarding FA pitchers, if the Twins want to enter the Yamamoto sweepstakes, by all means, do it. (I doubt they will.) That would obviously carry huge risk, too, but I prefer that risk to the risk of betting on a 31-year-old decent but not great pitcher staying on his current level long enough to make the contract worthwhile.

So would I, and that probably tells us that it wouldn't be enough. Normally, when talking about a contender, I would assume they want major leaguers or MLB-ready prospects in return. But this is the Rays, so who knows? You're probably right that they would want prospects. But I like Glasnow as a target. Yeah, I don't know if I would go longer than six years. Bellinger has such a weird track record. I would probably have to do a little more research to decide that, tbh.

Fair enough, and that's why I wrote that such success may be uncommon. But any time you want to bring in a great pitcher that requires a big investment. And any big investment also carries risk. Pick your poison. Just my opinion, but I'm not too thrilled about paying a 31-year-old $25 million for the next five or six years when there is a real chance that he might be terrible two years from now. And then we a) don't have that money available for extending someone like Royce Lewis and b) for paying a pitcher that is actually good by then. Or maybe I'm just not too convinced of the quality of this year's FA starting pitchers in general.