Sielk

Wow, and now the draft is going crazy. Also guarantees one of the "top 7" being there for the Twins, if they want.

True, but the Twins have been quite successful lately turning questionable defensive catchers into at least average ones. I'm not that worried about it, at least not to the point where I would pass on him if he's there at 8.

Glad I could help. Not all teams have the same amount of bonus money available, though. If you have the first pick in every round, the sum of your slot bonuses is way higher than the team picking 30th in every round. That, of course, equals to better prospects for the bad teams. Here is a list of the bonus pools and individual slot amounts, if you're interested.

I'll try to explain... Somewhat similar to, say, football each pick in the MLB draft is assigned a certain signing bonus. But unlike football, a player drafted with that pick doesn't automatically get that signing bonus. Instead the slot amounts of all the picks a team has in the first 10 rounds are added up together and then can be distributed among the drafted players however the team sees fit. Very simplified example: It's important to understand that teams usually negotiate signing bonuses with players before they draft them, not the other way around. So, let's say our team has three picks with the slot values $3M, $2M and $1M, meaning they can spend $6M in signing bonuses total on their draft class. Of course they could just hand it out like that. But maybe don't like the consensus top players for their first pick and draft someone lower on the board who they found out is willing to sign for only $2M. They now have $4M for their other two picks. Meanwhile, there are always some players in every draft who fall because no team is willing to meet their asking price. Often HS players who have the leverage that they can just decline and go to college. Since we "saved" money with our first pick, we now have more left than most other teams, $4M, and can just go to one of those should-have-been first-rounders in the second round and throw first-round money (e.g. $3M) at them. So, to sum up, instead of getting a first and a second, we ended up with a slightly worse first-rounder and another guy that should've been a late first. It's basically baseball's version of a trade down, except that the actual picks are never traded. Like with the Mets, it can work the other way, too. Maybe in my example the team really likes a player expected to go before they pick. So they go to that player and offer him $4M to sign. If that player then communicates to the other team that he won't sign for less than $4M and no one else is willing to give that to him, they might let this player slide right to our team. Of course, that also leaves only $2M for the other picks, meaning that we'll have to use our second-rounder on a player that's not really worthy of a second-round pick but doesn't have better offers from other teams. That scenario would basically be a trade up. I hope that helps a bit? I agree, the MLB draft can be confusing to watch, especially because fans don't know those prenegotiated deals until the players actually sign a month or so later.

I commented something very similar under yesterday's minor league report. To see so much power with a kid that just turned 17 is remarkable. Would be great if the Twins really hit it out of the park with one (or more) of these international signings. But I have to say, this year's class has mostly gotten of to a good start in general. When I glimpsed at the DSL box score last year, there were a lot of kids with an OPS around .500 or .600. This year there are several who are playing really well. I'm also intrigued by Yasser Mercedes who seems to play a pretty good all around game. He hit his first pro homer today. Let's hope it continues!

Great report, as always. What do you know about José Rodríguez? I feel like I notice him in the box score every game. I mean, it's only 23 games in the DSL and you don't want to overreact to that. But he is also one of the younger players of the most recent class (born June 2005, just turned 17) and that's quite a start he has had, especially since so many international players seem to struggle in their first taste of pro ball. In those 23 games he's a decent AVG and OBP and six homers, which seems like remarkable power for a kid that young. K% is also reasonable. Maybe someone to keep an eye on? Meanwhile, at AAA... Is Ronny Henríquez finally turning a corner? That would be such a positive development after he and Balazovic got absolutely destroyed in every start for most of the season so far (and for Balazovic that's still true, unfortunately). Fingers crossed!

It's disappointing to me that some players put themselves before the team's success because they don't want to take a vaccine that millions of people worldwide have taken largely without issues and that many people are actually required to take for their jobs. Kepler's rather tone-deaf statement doesn't make it better. If you aren't getting vaccinated, at least own it instead of making excuses and acting like a victim. On a positive note, I am happy for Ian Hamilton that he finally gets his chance after seemingly every other reliever in St. Paul got a call up before he did. Maybe he can do well enough to show that he can help the Twins this season. He sure has the stuff to do it.

Is that really the case, though? I only did a quick Google search but it seems like vaccination was only a requirement for the Beijing Winter olympics, not the Tokyo Summer Olympics a few months earlier in which Ryan participated.

Since the Twins are (smartly) limiting his innings I kinda like the idea of using him as an opener or pairing him with Archer who also doesn't give them much length. But only if that doesn't shut the door on him starting again in 2023. I have always been very high on Canterino and I am still convinced that he can't only be a starter but maybe even be that elusive frontline starter the Twins have tried to develop forever. I would hate it if he ended up in the bullpen because of need and never even got a chance to prove himself in the rotation.

Great analysis! I really like what Celestino has been doing so far, filling in all over the outfield and providing some offense too. Very helpful for the Twins.

Good! He had three fielding opportunities in the first game, I think. Two where he had to charge the ball and one where he had to go pretty far to his left. Made them all look routine. Also turned a nice 4-6-3 double play in the second game. I wouldn't say he had to make an exceedingly difficult play yet but whenever he had the opportunity to make a play, he did so flawlessly.

It's remarkable how Joe Ryan is barely perceived as a rookie anymore. This was his 10th MLB game and yet it feels like he has been in the league for years. The fact that he is de facto the Twins' ace, his stellar and consistent performances and just the way he carries himself on the mound all make it so easy to forget how little experience he still has. He goes 4 2/3 innings with 2 ER which is not stellar but still solid and everyone (myself included) goes like "Oh, he wasn't really sharp tonight". That's how far he has come. He clearly battled a bit with his command, the inconsistent strike zone and some bad luck yesterday. That happens and it's the mark of a good pitcher to limit the damage on a night like this which Joe did. He will come back with another stellar performance, I bet. In the meantime, this team is so much fun to watch. The way how every night someone else is stepping up honestly gives me some 2019 vibes. Not just Buck, Carlos and Polo but also some of the other players like Jeffers, Larnach, Celestino... (who has looked really good to me so far! One of the performances that has gotten lost in the shuffle with so much other stuff to talk about.)

I love seeing Royce Lewis doing so well and it gives me a lot of hope for his future. But I also think it would be best for him to stay at AAA for now and get reps. Pitchers will without doubt try to adjust to him and it will be better for him to make the counter adjustments at AAA rather than the majors. I believe the Twins share that opinion unless a longer-term injury to Correa (please not!) forces their hand. That would make him unlikely to be the next call up. Steer is a possibility though the Twins seem to have a lot of infield depth in front of him. We know how quickly that can change, though. But I would still guess on a pitcher. You always need more of those. I absolutely love Matt Canterino and I'm probably higher on him than most. If we assume Duran stays a reliever, I think Canterino has the highest upside of any SP prospect in the Twins organization. But the Twins seem to be determined (smartly) to closely monitor his innings and I would like seeing him as a reliever in the big leagues right now and then get stretched out next year. As a dark horse candidate, I wonder if Ronny Henriquez might get a shot in the bullpen at some point. Obviously depends on his performance, but he is already at AAA and on the 40-man roster and he certainly has the stuff to do it, if the Twins needed an additional reliever.

A valid concern. I am looking forward to see how Winder and Sands do going forward. If Winder succeeds I would consider moving Archer to the pen where his two-pitch mix likely plays better anyway. Like Archer, Sands also seems to rely mainly on two pitches. If he looks good in relief, why not just keep him there? Certainly not something you should bank on, but positive outcomes here would go a long way to help the Twins' bullpen, I think.

This was a very well played game by the Twins, I thought. McClanahan was just filthy with his stuff and command but Garlick got to him on two rare pitches which weren't excellent. And then as soon as the Rays took him out the Twins feasted on the bullpen. Meanwhile, pitching and defense remained great. Archer clearly battled with his command but he came through and the bullpen did the rest. And boy, I love to watch Jhoan Duran. He's filthy as well. Small correction to an otherwise excellent article: It's McClanahan, with only one n. Also, apparently they made a change and Josh Winder is now starting tomorrow. Looking forward to that!

At first glance, drafting a HS pitcher who just had TJ surgery scares the hell out of me. But then again, so many pitching prospects have it before they even reach the majors. So maybe it isn't that big of a risk (beyond the risk of drafting a HS pitcher in the top 10 in general). I am admittedly not a fan of drafting players who are already far down the defensive spectrum. The offensive bar they need to clear just becomes so high that there isn't a ton of upside anymore. I would always prefer SS, CF, C or a pitcher. I have seen this draft class being touted as really good but is it just me who is a little underwhelmed by the scouting reports of the top prospects? Apart from Druw Jones and maybe Lesko, these prospects just don't sound that exciting to me, at least not when compared to other draft prospects I've seen ranked in the top 10 in previous years. (Not that I know anything, that's just my impression when reading the scouting reports. )

I actually thought they would do that right away. There is only a limited number of prospects you can keep on the 40-man roster without them contributing. In my opinion, it would make a ton of sense to put him in the bullpen and fasttrack him. Better than losing an arm like this for nothing because you eventually need the roster spot. If it doesn't work out, well, at least you would have given it a try...

No problem with that. I just think situational hitting is far more difficult than many people think unless you're Luis Arraez or one of those superstar hitters that just do everything very well. But most players, now and in the past, have to specialize on their own approach and perfect it, in my opinion. That can still work well if the approach is sound but it does make luck a bigger factor. (There are of course hitters whose approach is inherently flawed, like Kepler, but that's a different story.) That said, I like how Larnach has been looking lately even without looking at a single stat. Had a very nice two-out 2-RBI single yesterday and came so close to hitting a homer if the wind hadn't pushed the ball in (talk about bad luck). I hope he can build on that and improve.

And that's not the conclusion you should draw from the advanced stats. Larnach has a .630 OPS. That's not good. And if he were to continue like this the entire season, it wouldn't be a good season either. All the advanced stats are saying is that there are a lot of reasons to believe he won't continue to have a .630 OPS for the rest of the year. Or, translated into perfectly old school, non-analytics terms: He has really hit the ball well and just has had rotten luck. If he continues doing that, the luck will likely turn around. Simple as that. Now, you are of course free to ignore what the advanced stats are saying. In this case, let's just hope you'll be pleasantly surprised if he does start getting actual good results. ?

I disagree. Always try to first win the game you're currently playing. It was an one-run game. If Rocco had "saved" those three for the White Sox series and a still very inexperienced Winder had blown the lead, it wouldn't have helped the Twins one bit. Worry about the rest later. Who knows, the Sox games could all become blowouts (hopefully with the Twins on top) and you wouldn't even need your late-inning arms. And if it's another one-run game you can still use Winder. A win is a win. Go for it whenever you can.

I don't think they have broken him, it's still early after all. But in my opinion they really need to stop playing him at SS and make him a CF only. I actually got MiLB.tv after last year's trade deadline and watched almost all of his games. It's rough. His arm is a real problem at SS, both in terms of accuracy and strength, and it leads to a ton of errors. I don't have MiLB.tv this season but what I have seen from Tom's highlights just looks like a player that has lost all his confidence. He's overthinking and rushing even simple plays and it wouldn't surprise me if those issues also have an effect on his hitting. The Twins should just put him in CF permanently where he looks far more comfortable and have him focus on his hitting. Austin just isn't a SS in my opinion. He might be a passable 2B but honestly, I would prefer him in the OF. His arm won't be a strength there either but a throw that slightly misses won't have such a big negative effect and that alone would probably help him settle down.

Wow, I got an honorable mention. Certainly didn't expect that with my rather occasional comments. Great to have Twins Daily, especially as someone living so far away from other Twins (and baseball) fans. Thanks!

The issue was that I looked at his Fangraphs page, saw 4 saves and 9 blown saves and wrongly concluded that he was 4-13. But apparently you get a blown save even if you never had an opportunity to record a save in the first place. For example, Duffey comes in for the 8th inning, blows the lead (which will happen sometimes in 76 appearances) and gets credited with a blown save. Of course, it was the 8th inning and he never had the opportunity to record a save. So forget about that 4-13. That was my mistake and never happened. The majority of those 13 probably occurred in earlier innings and should absolutely be compared to his 63 career holds. Duffey's actual 9th inning record is better than that.

Damn, I didn't realize that a "blown hold" is recorded as a blown save. Thank you, that explains it and 67-76 is of course a perfectly fine record. Doesn't change the fact though that my confidence in Duffey isn't as high as it once was. It just seems like he has been slightly off for a while now. Would be really nice if Alcalá or Duran could step into the closer role (or the highest leverage role, if you want to avoid having a traditional closer).

Frustrating. I just can't help but feel that the Twins as a team have a problem with crumbling in big spots. It affects everything, from hitting with RISP to late game performances and of course the Streak of Horror. It's a shame, because the results of these two games really overshadowed some nice moments and performances, especially on the pitching side. Well, let's hope the bats get going from tomorrow on, make this post sound dumb and that soon no one remembers two close losses to begin the season. Can't wait to watch Ober tomorrow. Let's go!