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Sielk

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Everything posted by Sielk

  1. Sielk
    Twins MVP - Buxton (Yes, he's gonna stay healthy and it will be a season for the ages) Twins Top Pitcher - Josh Winder Twins Most Improved - Alex Kirilloff Twins ROTY - Josh Winder Gold Gloves - Buxton, Correa Silver Slugger - Buxton Twins Record - 86-76 AL Central Standings - 1. Sox, 2. Twins, 3. Tigers, 4. Royals, 5. Guards Minor League Hitter - Matt Wallner Minor League SP - Marco Raya I certainly have some doubts about the pitching staff, but hey, being optimistic is more fun! So hyped up for the season! Let's go Twins!
  2. Sielk
    Seems like there will be a lot of interesting young prospects at Single A. Raya and Hajjar on the pitching side and Miller, Cavaco, Rodriguez and Rosario as position players. I gotta say, I was just blown away by Noah Miller this spring training. He managed not to look overmatched at the plate which I thought is pretty impressive for a 19-year-old in big league spring training. And defensively, wow, just a succession of incredibly smooth, easy plays that were a joy to watch. I don't know if he will eventually outgrow the position but on the other hand there are some tall shortstops in the big leagues that are also good defensively (our current one, for example). And at least to me, all his actions there just screamed SHORTSTOP. A lot of people have been calling Cavaco a bust, but it's easy to forget how young he still is and how good his tools could be. It might sound weird after his not so inspiring performance so far but I would be really interested to see him in Cedar Rapids at some point this season. There are just so many hitters that absolutely explode the very second they get out of the Florida State League. That environment is just an absolute offense killer and some hitters seem to handle it worse than others. Would be a shame to give up on Cavaco prematurely only to find out that the FSL was a big part of his problems. Now the Mighty Mussels just need to broadcast their home games so we can actually watch. ?
  3. Sielk
    I didn't mean to say that I doubt his ability to play 3B just fine. Whenever I watched him he looked good there. I just feel like there have been more questions raised ever since his prospect stock rose so dramatically. Maybe that's only natural when a prospect suddenly gets so much more attention. Just confused me a bit because all that talk came so out of nowhere and I never got the impression that he wasn't at least an average 3B.
  4. Sielk
    So happy that baseball is back! Thanks for the report. The change of perception regarding Miranda's defense is so weird. Last year pretty much every scouting report called him an average or even above average defensive 3B, and by no means a liability. Then he had his monster season and suddenly every evaluator started questioning his defense and made it sound like he was a player without a position. Almost like they desperately wanted to find a knock on him.
  5. Sielk
    I would love Winder in the opening day rotation. But, that's the important point, I want him to be in Bundy's spot and not instead of a big trade. I totally agree with you that banking on Winder in that spot would be a recipe for disaster. They definitely need to trade for that proven starter. One last point regarding Winder "struggling" at AAA: I wouldn't put any stock in that. He made four starts at AAA. The first was excellent: 5.2 one-hit innings. In fact the one run he technically allowed was entirely on the subsequent reliever screwing up his job with a runner on first and already 2 outs. For his other three starts you can find very plausible reasons why he was at less than 100% (namely getting hit by a comebacker, pitching on short rest after the futures game, then the game which he left with an injury). His excellent performance at AA should carry far more weight. Give the kid a shot. Just, as I said, in addition to a big trade, not instead. If he struggles then, you still have Bundy as insurance.
  6. Sielk
    Here you go:
  7. Sielk
    Yes, that's exactly what I meant when I said I would rather give up Petty than someone like Winder (who I think is basically major league ready). Not just a question of ceiling but also of risk and closeness to contributing.
  8. Sielk
    Also, to give up just one single prospect when the Twins have 7-8 other SP prospects that are roughly the same tier as Petty? That's dealing from a position of strength and I would do that anytime.
  9. Sielk
    I am honestly surprised to see so many negative reactions to this trade. Everyone wanted pitching, after all. Yes, Petty is a very good prospect but he is also not even 19 years old and this farm system has a TON of RHPs. Anytime you trade away a prospect there is a chance that he could become something. There is also a decent chance Petty is a bust and the Twins get Sonny Gray for free. You gotta give up something in a trade and I would rather give up Petty than someone like Winder who will probably help the Twins a lot in the near future. I like this one much better than the Garver trade!
  10. Sielk
    In my opinion, it really depends on the intent of such a trade. Do you just trade for one or two years of an good starter to try to make this team competitive in the short term? That will probably end up being a failure, unless the Twins hit the baseball jackpot and several of their pitching prospects are great immediately. Highly unlikely. As others have pointed out, this is especially true if the big trade is the only move to improve the rotation. On the other hand, do you make this trade with the intention to extend your new starter (and willingness to pay market rate for him!)? Then you could build your rotation in the upcoming years around him. All the young pitchers would certainly benefit from his presence. And once they have settled in, the new pitcher could help you contend. In this case, yes please. That's what I think the FO should do. Unfortunately, nothing this FO has ever done has given me the indication that they're willing to give big long-term contracts to SPs. Therefore, I am not a big fan of a move like the proposed Montas trade. Seems just like a waste of assets on a pitcher who won't be here anymore when it matters.
  11. Sielk
    Interesting ideas. But in general I like the concept of the worst teams getting rewarded with a high draft pick. Helps to create equality. (Not that MLB will ever be close to equality without a salary cap). Therefore the last two suggestions don't excite me that much. And I don't think a lottery really stops teams from tanking. I am also huge hockey fan. Just take a look at the Arizona Coyotes this season. They are as horrible as baseball's worst tanking teams. Here's another idea: How about moving down a team's pick when they have been bad for a while? Like, in the first year they finish in the bottom five they get their pick, but if they have been in that range for multiple years in a row, their pick gets moved down. Someone would have to iron out the details but maybe that would at least stop these super long tanking rebuilds. Yes, dear Orioles, I'm looking at you...
  12. Sielk
    I don't want to trade Garver. Catcher is a position of strength right now. But would it remain one if your catchers are Jeffers/Rortvedt/new acquisition? I'm not convinced that Jeffers could just replace Garver right now. I hate to say this, because Luis Arraez has been my favorite player these last three years, but it might make sense to trade him. 2B/3B is really a strength of this team. Between Polanco, Donaldson (who you probably can't trade), Miranda and Arraez you already have four players for two spots. And while there are always some injuries, we already saw that little logjam this season when the lack of regular playing time was probably one of the reasons why Miranda wasn't called up. Speaking of injuries, let's talk about Arráez'. He has already missed a lot of time because of his knees. Even when he has been on the field, the injuries have caused some extended slumps we haven't seen from him before. A Luis Arraez who hits .330 is a special hitter. If he hits only .280 with no power and bad defense? Not so much. That doesn't mean the Twins should just dump him. But right now he is still only one season removed from hitting .320. If another team is willing to bet on his health and offers them a good return, they should maybe pull the trigger instead of banking on better health in the future. If you wait longer and it goes poorly, his value might plummet rather quickly. Ugh, I really hated writing this...
  13. Sielk
    Agree, it's great to see. He was certainly put in an unfair situation when they called him up way too early. But apparently he took it as a learning experience and is now hitting better than he ever did before. I still hope they can extend Buxton. But if they indeed accomplish that I wonder if Kepler could be on the trading block instead. In fact I could see Celestino fill the Kepler role on this team as an okay hitting outfielder that backs up Buxton in center and plays the corner otherwise (if they keep Buck and trade Kepler, that is). Maybe not right away but in the long term.
  14. Sielk
    I agree, the last thing I would want the Twins to do is signing another bunch of stop-gaps that only block young pitchers. Especially because this FO has so far shown a lot of reluctance to simply release/trade veterans that are clearly not part of the solution. There always seems to be a fear that the vets might still be needed and thus the Shoemakers and Caves of the world are kept far too long. One exception: If the Twins find a legitimate frontline starter in FA that would actually be willing to sign a reasonable long-term contract here, they should absolutely do it. If there is one thing we have learned from past years, it's that signing a top SP is far easier said than done. It would be too bad if the Twins didn't sign a starter right now, only to find out next year that none of the top starters in that class wants to come here.
  15. Sielk
    It's not just the Twins, apparently it's a Minnesota sports thing. The Wild just drafted a player named Carson Lambos in the first round. ?
  16. Sielk
    Sounds like an interesting class. Just from reading the scouting reports I am a bit more excited about Mercedes and Herrera. But who knows, maybe Bryan Acuna becomes as good as his brother. You never know with these 16-year-old prospects. I would imagine there are quite a few 16-year-old pitchers in this class who will turn out to be really good. The problem is projecting who that will be. I mean, even drafting HS pitchers is incredibly risky and these guys are two years younger. All teams will no doubt sign pitchers as well. But at this age pitching prospects are probably just too raw to rank them as high as position players who are somewhat easier to project.
  17. Sielk
    I would argue that protecting Enlow is pretty much a no-brainer. During the season you can stash him on the IL and they'll be able to maneuver around his roster spot in the offseason. There are just a whole bunch of fringe players that I would cut before risk losing a talented young starter like Enlow.
  18. Sielk
    Personally, I would put Cavaco at 11 and Winder in the top ten. I'm still high on Cavaco but for me, he just needs to show a little bit more actual production to rank him that high. And that's not a knock on him, it's just because the other prospects are so good, too. Speaking of the top ten, I find it really hard rank them. If you told me about literally any of those guys that he will have the best career of them all, I would have no trouble believing you.
  19. Sielk
    Great interview with a lot of interesting information. Thanks!
  20. Sielk
    Nice win. It has become far too rare these days to see the Twins win a pitchers' duel like this. And I am really starting to become a big fan of Bailey Ober, if I wasn't already. Let's hope he can keep it up. I have been wondering about that, too. Putting Arraez in the leadoff spot was easily one of Rocco's best decisions this year, in my opinion. Why is he suddenly reverting back to Kepler there? Now, I like Max Kepler. As a German baseball fan, he was pretty much the reason why I chose the Twins as my favorite team. But what part of his recent play has convinced Rocco that he is the right option for the leadoff spot? Putting him there was somewhat defensible in 2019 when he was actually hitting well. (As long as you want a pull-heavy power-over-hit guy there, which I disagree with.) But now? His OBP is .289! I don't get it. Of course it doesn't really matter who is batting leadoff for the rest of this lost season. It's just one of those decisions that really confuse me...
  21. Sielk
    Some very good points here, both in the article and in the comments. The front office deserves a lot of credit for some of the moves they did. Others look decidedly worse in hindsight. However, it's very easy to criticize decisions after they have gone wrong. There are always so many factors that can ruin a plan. It sure seemed like everything the FO tried this season blew up in their faces. My only real criticism after the offseason was that they tried to fill the last rotation spot on the cheap. (I wanted Taijuan Walker instead of Shoemaker.) Otherwise, I thought the offseason was okay. But then came a plethora of injuries (of which other teams also had plenty, so no excuses here), underperformances and mistakes at the worst possible times, and here we are, in last place in the Central. I will forgive them for this season. Sometimes it just doesn't work out. But this is also a real rest for the FO. Mistakes happen but how do you continue from here? They deserve the chance to prove themselves here. So far though, I have some doubts about how they handled this. The last two months of this season are basically a golden opportunity to evaluate what you have in the system. So why is Miranda still at AAA? Or Moran? In general, I have the feeling that this FO is often way too hesitant when it comes to releasing fringe veteran players who are clearly replaceable. It's like they always think "Oh, but we might still need..." (fill in Shoemaker. Or Happ. Or Cave. Or Astudillo. Or some reliever claimed off waivers. Or even Simmons at this point.) But that ignores the fact that such players and their subpar results can always be acquired via waivers or AAA if you need them. And then these players take space away from younger players. Like, I really don't blame the FO for not seeing Baddoo's breakout coming. The guy had a .683 OPS at High-A the last time he played. No one could have seen that coming. The Tigers didn't either, I'd assume. But if they hadn't been so intent on keeping some fringe guys they might have had the space to protect their Nr. 13 prospect and just give him some time. Sorry for this way-too-long comment. I just needed to get some of my thoughts off.
  22. Sielk
    Lesko might be a good prospect but I wouldn't take a HS pitcher with a top five pick. That's a worthy gamble at 26, but too risky at 5. If they take a position player, I would prefer someone who is projected to stay at a premium position. As far as names go, I also like Druw Jones' scouting report. But then, I'm sure a lot will change over the course of the next year, especially when it comes to 17-year-olds who haven't even played their senior season yet.
  23. Sielk
    Seth, I noticed that Josh Winder didn't pitch since July 21. Do you know if there is any reason for that? Hopefully not an injury? And speaking of injuries, do you think Duran and Canterino will return at some point this season or are they out for the year? Thanks!
  24. Sielk
    I saw that José Miranda was removed from the game after being hit by a pitch. I hope it's nothing serious?! ? Honestly, his huge breakout is such a bright spot in this horrible season, it would just be heartbreaking if he got injured...
  25. Sielk
    I don't disagree but on the other hand, it's not like they spend a top ten pick on him. And since the Twins have two late first round picks I have no problem with using one of them for a risky high upside player.
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