What are the Twins Getting in Gabriel González?

A good contact hitter like Gonzalez does not need elite exit velocities to be very good.  Arraez, is a very good example. Now you would like a little more pop, and with his stature I would believe he would have decent power and HR potential in the majors if he makes it.  This comes down to his hit tool which is elite,  and then being able to refine the strike zone.  He does those things you have a very good hitter on your hands.  

Good thing to add an OF prospect. Solid group that is 2-3 years away from MLB. 

So he added 2” and 60 lbs in 2 years. 3 more years of development and he will likely be in MLB and on his way to a nice career. Great get for the twins!!!

Maybe this is the reason we don't see the writers mentioning a players size. The days isn't reliable. I don't understand why it isn't more accurate, does anyone else? 

A cromulent contact rate embiggens the smallest prospect.

A bit concerned about his lack of speed which can mean a Rooker type in the outfield. Perhaps a DH?

Gonzalez reminds me a lot of Oswaldo Arcia

I think this is going to translate to trading high end hitting prospects at the deadline. 
 

I don’t think a move for pitching is coming before ST.  By July they should have a TV deal in place or a better indication of future TV revenue and a better indication of some higher end hitting talent (ERod and Gonzalez)  they will swing at the deadline for a playoff starting pitching g help then even if it is expensive.  

11 minutes ago, High heat said:

Gonzalez reminds me a lot of Oswaldo Arcia

I think this is going to translate to trading high end hitting prospects at the deadline. 
 

I don’t think a move for pitching is coming before ST.  By July they should have a TV deal in place or a better indication of future TV revenue and a better indication of some higher end hitting talent (ERod and Gonzalez)  they will swing at the deadline for a playoff starting pitching g help then even if it is expensive.  

Costs go WAY up at the deadline though.  Wouldn't it make more sense to a anticipate TV revenue and make the move now?  It's not like they will get zero for their very desirable broadcast rights.  

He is going to have to mash but he seems to have the building blocks to do so if he can put it together.

The Twins need to rely less on EV and a little more on contact. Setting a K record (not pitching) is an embarrassing stat. I'd rather watch a guy put a ball in play and hustle than a guy try to hit a five run dinger.

Rodriquez and Gonzales seem like similar players in the same position. The differences are that Rodriquez bats left handed and has a solid defensive profile. Gonzales bats right handed and is somewhat limited defensively despite his great arm. I wonder if one of these guys, probably Gonzales, will be dealt in another trade package this spring to acquire a starter. 

This is going to be an interesting question for GG: how much has he physically matured or not? The prospect evaluators who are down on him seem to be grouping around two things: his EVs (suggesting that he's where he's going to be for strength and power) and his lack of patience (which could get victimized as he faces more advanced pitching). The ones who are higher on him don't see him as being done in terms of his physical maturation and some struggles upon advancing to a level that he's quite young for is normal.

I wonder who will be right? I would be interested in how many of them have actually seen more than a little tape on him.

I'm unsure where to find the 90th percentile EV stat, but 101.5mph does not look concerning to me; it looks encouraging. For starters, he's posted 116mph EVs in batting cages, so the raw power is there; it's up to the Twins to work on his swing to maximize his power potential. Secondly, if we assume that his average exit velo is 85mph and the standard deviation is 12.1 (to make the 90th percentile EV 101.5 mph), his 95th percentile EV would be around 109mph if his EV data followed a standard bell curve. For comparison, Eddie Rosario's max EV most years is around 108mph, Cody Bellinger's is around 110mph, and Kyle Tucker's is around 111mph.

You don't need to be able to hit a ball 120mph to make it in the majors, and this is definitely not an SWR situation where we're going to be waiting five years for a velocity bump that never comes. I'd be much more concerned with refining his approach and improving his swing than trying to fix a non-existent problem.

2 hours ago, NeverSeenATwinsPlayoffWin said:

I'm unsure where to find the 90th percentile EV stat, but 101.5mph does not look concerning to me; it looks encouraging. For starters, he's posted 116mph EVs in batting cages, so the raw power is there; it's up to the Twins to work on his swing to maximize his power potential. Secondly, if we assume that his average exit velo is 85mph and the standard deviation is 12.1 (to make the 90th percentile EV 101.5 mph), his 95th percentile EV would be around 109mph if his EV data followed a standard bell curve. For comparison, Eddie Rosario's max EV most years is around 108mph, Cody Bellinger's is around 110mph, and Kyle Tucker's is around 111mph.

You don't need to be able to hit a ball 120mph to make it in the majors, and this is definitely not an SWR situation where we're going to be waiting five years for a velocity bump that never comes. I'd be much more concerned with refining his approach and improving his swing than trying to fix a non-existent problem.

I'm not sure if there is any site that calculates and publishes 90th percentile EV data for minor leaguers.  EV data is available in game logs at baseball savant for AAA and most low A Florida State games.  I started collecting this data from baseball savant over the last year.

I think a 101.5 MPH 90th percentile is fine, but certainly not great.  EVs are generally higher in AAA than low A, but in general over 105 would be a very good 90th percentile, And under 100 would be concerning, depending on the rest of the profile of course.  Wallner's 90% EV was 109 MPH last year.  Emmanuel Rodriguez and Kalai Rosario put up 106.5 MPH 90% EVS in low A in 2022.  Those were elite for guys their age.  101.5 is kind of on par with Jose Salas in 2022 or Keaschall last year, and a little better than De Andrade last year.  So kind of average but not bad for a 19-year-old.

I'd like to know at least his average and in-game max EV as well.  I don't know if there is any public EV data from the California League though.  Also a 101 MPH 90% EV with a 15% K rate is obviously a lot different than the same EV with a 30% K rate.  Given his over aggressive approach, I would guess Gonzalez's EV is skewed a bit low by putting balls in play on bad pitches a bit too much.

Gonzalez is an overrated prospect. He's not a great fielder but has a good arm, so he's projected in RF. He's young so some think he'll add extra power but the truth is his structure is 5'10 so he's pretty much filled out & true evaluators believe he won't hit close to the HRs that he needs to profile to play RF together with his lack of plate discipline his stock will plummet. SEA got rid of him at the right time. Twins have no present or future need for Gonzalez.