What are the Twins Getting in Gabriel González?

[Jamie Cameron]

Gabriel González was the most valuable piece the Twins acquired from the Mariners on Monday night. What does his minor-league production and data tell us about his offensive profile? Let's dig in.

Image courtesy of Everett AquaSox

The Twins parted company with their longest tenured player, Jorge Polanco, on Monday night, in a trade with the Seattle Mariners. Gabriel Gonzalez was one half of the prospect portion of the four-player return from the Mariners. Who is he? What does he offer as a prospect?

González signed with the Mariners as an international prospect out of Venezuela, for $1.3 million. He reached Low-A Modesto in his first full season in the US, as an 18-year-old, before repeating the level at the beginning of 2023. Gonzalez dominated Low A in his second go-around, eventually earning a promotion to High-A Everett in the second half of the season.

Gonzalez is listed at 5’10, 165 lbs on MiLB.com, but that’s no longer reflective of his physique. A thickly-built outfielder, Gonzalez has quick hands and generates high-quality contact, despite a slightly noisy operation at the plate.

In 2023, González knocked the stuffing out of Low-A pitching, to the tune of a .348/.403/.530 (.933) with 9 home runs and 19 doubles in 73 games. The transition to High A was a difficult adjustment for González (let’s remember, he was fully two years younger than a typical High-A hitter). In 43 games, he slashed .215/.290/.387, albeit with another 9 home runs and 4 doubles for the AquaSox. Gonzalez doesn’t walk much (6.4 BB%), but doesn’t strike out much either (16.6 K%).

When examining his quality of contact, Aram Leighton points out a few key data points that are worth monitoring for Gonzalez in 2024.

There’s a limit to the data we (at Twins Daily) have available on González (we’re missing EV and performance against specific pitches, most notably). While the exit velocity is notable, it’s worth considering González’s age as a factor here. Prospects typically add around 4 mph to their average exit velocity between the ages of 18 and 22, and around 3.5 mph to their 90th percentile exit velocity. While González’s 90th-percentile numbers may not jump off the page, I’d argue there’s still room for growth, and the Twins probably like what they see given his age and level.

Looking at González’s approach at the plate, it’s easy to distill the factor most likely to drive his success or struggles with the Twins: swing decisions. González has good hand-eye coordination, evidenced by a cromulent contact rate at Low A (74.9%) that didn’t really suffer when he moved to High A (73.9%). What’s noticeable about González is how easily he gives up on plate appearances when he falls behind in the count. He’s already worked to improve his swing decisions since coming Stateside, but is a free swinger, taking a hack at 55.1% of pitches in 2023. To put this in perspective with an extreme counter example, Edouard Julien swung at 36.6% of pitches in 2023. González’s swing decisions are much more conservative in hitter's counts (48.3 Swing%) than pitcher's counts (63.3 Swing%). That will undoubtedly be an area of focus for the Twins, as finding consistent success when pitchers have leverage will be an extremely tough ask.

Backing up to consider his overall profile, González is carried by two tools currently, a plus arm (12 outfield assists in 2023), and power. Defensively, given his limited athleticism, it seems González is destined for a corner outfield spot, which will make refining his hit tool and swing decisions a must if he is to progress.

It’s worth digging into his platoon splits and spray chart to make some additional observations. González has a relatively mild platoon split. He’s a lefty masher, managing a .916 OPS against southpaws in 2023 (compared to .803 versus right-handed pitching). His approach and contact are aligned regardless of pitcher handedness.

There’s not enough there to suggest that platooning will be a significant issue for him. Looking at González’s spray chart, it’s notable that the majority of his home runs in 2023 are to the pull side, a tendency the Twins favor in right-handed hitters. It's also worth noting that his teammates in A-ball bestowed upon him the sobriquet El Dron, in honor of the ruthless efficiency of his swing. That's a guy who sticks in the lineup, just as La Regadera did.

González was ranked 79th by MLB Pipeline on their recently-published top 100 prospects. While González hasn’t appeared on other lists (neither Baseball America nor Baseball Prospectus included him), it’s fair to say that he’s a consensus top-125 prospect in baseball and offers comparable value to Jorge Polanco on his own.

Research assistance provided by TruMedia

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[Dman]

Very nice summary!!  Excellent content thank you!!  I am hopeful he can improve the swing decisions because then he will be a monster at the plate.  That being said some guys have that skill and some never develop it.  His ability to make contact should help him some, but hunting good pitches to hit is generally the difference between making it and not making it.  I'm rooting for him.  Nice to have another highly rated right handed bat in the system.

[chpettit19]

Excited to have him and follow his progression. Sounds like a bigger version of Eddie Rosario or OF version of Jose Miranda (with a little more pop maybe). Rosario never really stopped swinging at everything, but was able to make a nice MLB career for himself. Miranda did fine tune his approach some and it was the key for his career taking off. It sounds like there's not a ton of projection left in him as he's already physically matured quite a bit, but you can't teach the natural bat to ball skills it sounds like he has. Sounds like there's some very real talent there and I hope the Twins can dial him in like they did with Miranda.

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

A good contact hitter like Gonzalez does not need elite exit velocities to be very good.  Arraez, is a very good example. Now you would like a little more pop, and with his stature I would believe he would have decent power and HR potential in the majors if he makes it.  This comes down to his hit tool which is elite,  and then being able to refine the strike zone.  He does those things you have a very good hitter on your hands.  

[thelanges5]

Good thing to add an OF prospect. Solid group that is 2-3 years away from MLB. 

[Rod Carews Birthday]

He sounds like a really good baseball player. Hopefully he can get everything to translate as he moves up the ladder and eventually to the Twins.  He definitely helps fill an organizational hole of right handed outfield power bats, which is also good.  If only he were MLB ready right now.  We could sure use one of those!

[Fatbat]

So he added 2” and 60 lbs in 2 years. 3 more years of development and he will likely be in MLB and on his way to a nice career. Great get for the twins!!!

[wabene]

Maybe this is the reason we don't see the writers mentioning a players size. The days isn't reliable. I don't understand why it isn't more accurate, does anyone else? 

[Joe A. Preusser]

A cromulent contact rate embiggens the smallest prospect.

[tony&rodney]

A bit concerned about his lack of speed which can mean a Rooker type in the outfield. Perhaps a DH?

[High heat]

Gonzalez reminds me a lot of Oswaldo Arcia

I think this is going to translate to trading high end hitting prospects at the deadline. 
 

I don’t think a move for pitching is coming before ST.  By July they should have a TV deal in place or a better indication of future TV revenue and a better indication of some higher end hitting talent (ERod and Gonzalez)  they will swing at the deadline for a playoff starting pitching g help then even if it is expensive.  

[Joe A. Preusser]

11 minutes ago, High heat said:

Gonzalez reminds me a lot of Oswaldo Arcia

I think this is going to translate to trading high end hitting prospects at the deadline. 
 

I don’t think a move for pitching is coming before ST.  By July they should have a TV deal in place or a better indication of future TV revenue and a better indication of some higher end hitting talent (ERod and Gonzalez)  they will swing at the deadline for a playoff starting pitching g help then even if it is expensive.  

Costs go WAY up at the deadline though.  Wouldn't it make more sense to a anticipate TV revenue and make the move now?  It's not like they will get zero for their very desirable broadcast rights.  

[DocBauer]

Great write up! Thanks! I really feel I know him much better than I did from the initial reports.

Initially, I thought he was a E Rodriguez "light" with less speed. Very different in approach at the plate as E-Rod is maybe too passive at times, while Gonzalez is a free swinger who might need to reign things in. But they are both powerful and a pair of 19-20yo olds who have really flashed in A ball while being quite young.

But I agree that now I see him as a Eddie Rosario comp with a better arm, a little more power, and less speed. 

Obviously, the concern is him swinging at everything, similar to Rosario, as well as Miranda before he leaned better swing control. What I really like is the bat to ball skills are there. And his splits seem to indicate he's going to be just fine against RH pitchers. I think it's a lot easier to guide a kid with great contact ability to reign in his approach with more patience, than it is to develop a high K batter who swings and misses a ton.

I think the floor is low, but the ceiling is a powerful RH bat who plays a corner OF spot with a good arm who probably never walks a lot, but puts the ball in play with an OK AVG, not a great OB%, but legit 30 double and 30 HR power. 

He's definitely a top 10 prospect right now, though 4-7 in the Twins system right now. And that's pretty darn good.

[RaoulDuke]

He is going to have to mash but he seems to have the building blocks to do so if he can put it together.

[Fezig]

The Twins need to rely less on EV and a little more on contact. Setting a K record (not pitching) is an embarrassing stat. I'd rather watch a guy put a ball in play and hustle than a guy try to hit a five run dinger.

[Otaknam]

Rodriquez and Gonzales seem like similar players in the same position. The differences are that Rodriquez bats left handed and has a solid defensive profile. Gonzales bats right handed and is somewhat limited defensively despite his great arm. I wonder if one of these guys, probably Gonzales, will be dealt in another trade package this spring to acquire a starter. 

[jmlease1]

This is going to be an interesting question for GG: how much has he physically matured or not? The prospect evaluators who are down on him seem to be grouping around two things: his EVs (suggesting that he's where he's going to be for strength and power) and his lack of patience (which could get victimized as he faces more advanced pitching). The ones who are higher on him don't see him as being done in terms of his physical maturation and some struggles upon advancing to a level that he's quite young for is normal.

I wonder who will be right? I would be interested in how many of them have actually seen more than a little tape on him.

[saviking]

19 hours ago, Rod Carews Birthday said:

He sounds like a really good baseball player. Hopefully he can get everything to translate as he moves up the ladder and eventually to the Twins.  He definitely helps fill an organizational hole of right handed outfield power bats, which is also good.  If only he were MLB ready right now.  We could sure use one of those!

I'm guessing he will start and play most of the year in Cedar Rapids ..

[NeverSeenATwinsPlayoffWin]

I'm unsure where to find the 90th percentile EV stat, but 101.5mph does not look concerning to me; it looks encouraging. For starters, he's posted 116mph EVs in batting cages, so the raw power is there; it's up to the Twins to work on his swing to maximize his power potential. Secondly, if we assume that his average exit velo is 85mph and the standard deviation is 12.1 (to make the 90th percentile EV 101.5 mph), his 95th percentile EV would be around 109mph if his EV data followed a standard bell curve. For comparison, Eddie Rosario's max EV most years is around 108mph, Cody Bellinger's is around 110mph, and Kyle Tucker's is around 111mph.

You don't need to be able to hit a ball 120mph to make it in the majors, and this is definitely not an SWR situation where we're going to be waiting five years for a velocity bump that never comes. I'd be much more concerned with refining his approach and improving his swing than trying to fix a non-existent problem.

[chpettit19]

1 hour ago, NeverSeenATwinsPlayoffWin said:

I'm unsure where to find the 90th percentile EV stat, but 101.5mph does not look concerning to me; it looks encouraging. For starters, he's posted 116mph EVs in batting cages, so the raw power is there; it's up to the Twins to work on his swing to maximize his power potential. Secondly, if we assume that his average exit velo is 85mph and the standard deviation is 12.1 (to make the 90th percentile EV 101.5 mph), his 95th percentile EV would be around 109mph if his EV data followed a standard bell curve. For comparison, Eddie Rosario's max EV most years is around 108mph, Cody Bellinger's is around 110mph, and Kyle Tucker's is around 111mph.

You don't need to be able to hit a ball 120mph to make it in the majors, and this is definitely not an SWR situation where we're going to be waiting five years for a velocity bump that never comes. I'd be much more concerned with refining his approach and improving his swing than trying to fix a non-existent problem.

That isn't how EV percentile works. It's not just a standard curve that can be extrapolated from a single data point, it's about the distribution of their actual batted balls. You can get to the same average a number of ways. You can get to 85 average exit velo by hitting everything between 80 and 90 MPH or by having things spread out from 70 to 120 MPH just depends on the volume hit at what velo. 90th percentile EV is simply the 1 ball hit at that percentile.

In the pic below you can see that Peralta has significantly higher 75th, 90th, and 99th percentiles than Escobar, but Escobar has much better 10th and 25th percentiles while they have nearly identical 50th. The reason analysts care more about the higher percentile numbers is because they tie much closer to success. Certainly outliers and exceptions to rules, but 90th percentile is a pretty good predictor for success because higher numbers there leads to more success and is also much more sustainable year over year. So the harder you hit it the more successful you are and the more likely you are to be able to hit it hard moving forward. It's more helpful to have that 106.9 to 101.9 advantage than it is harmful to have the 69.7 to 73.7 disadvantage.

 

[2wins87]

2 hours ago, NeverSeenATwinsPlayoffWin said:

I'm unsure where to find the 90th percentile EV stat, but 101.5mph does not look concerning to me; it looks encouraging. For starters, he's posted 116mph EVs in batting cages, so the raw power is there; it's up to the Twins to work on his swing to maximize his power potential. Secondly, if we assume that his average exit velo is 85mph and the standard deviation is 12.1 (to make the 90th percentile EV 101.5 mph), his 95th percentile EV would be around 109mph if his EV data followed a standard bell curve. For comparison, Eddie Rosario's max EV most years is around 108mph, Cody Bellinger's is around 110mph, and Kyle Tucker's is around 111mph.

You don't need to be able to hit a ball 120mph to make it in the majors, and this is definitely not an SWR situation where we're going to be waiting five years for a velocity bump that never comes. I'd be much more concerned with refining his approach and improving his swing than trying to fix a non-existent problem.

I'm not sure if there is any site that calculates and publishes 90th percentile EV data for minor leaguers.  EV data is available in game logs at baseball savant for AAA and most low A Florida State games.  I started collecting this data from baseball savant over the last year.

I think a 101.5 MPH 90th percentile is fine, but certainly not great.  EVs are generally higher in AAA than low A, but in general over 105 would be a very good 90th percentile, And under 100 would be concerning, depending on the rest of the profile of course.  Wallner's 90% EV was 109 MPH last year.  Emmanuel Rodriguez and Kalai Rosario put up 106.5 MPH 90% EVS in low A in 2022.  Those were elite for guys their age.  101.5 is kind of on par with Jose Salas in 2022 or Keaschall last year, and a little better than De Andrade last year.  So kind of average but not bad for a 19-year-old.

I'd like to know at least his average and in-game max EV as well.  I don't know if there is any public EV data from the California League though.  Also a 101 MPH 90% EV with a 15% K rate is obviously a lot different than the same EV with a 30% K rate.  Given his over aggressive approach, I would guess Gonzalez's EV is skewed a bit low by putting balls in play on bad pitches a bit too much.

[Doctor Gast]

Gonzalez is an overrated prospect. He's not a great fielder but has a good arm, so he's projected in RF. He's young so some think he'll add extra power but the truth is his structure is 5'10 so he's pretty much filled out & true evaluators believe he won't hit close to the HRs that he needs to profile to play RF together with his lack of plate discipline his stock will plummet. SEA got rid of him at the right time. Twins have no present or future need for Gonzalez.