The Twins Payroll Meltdown: Six Crummy Ways It Affects Their Future

[John Bonnes]

The Twins are cutting payroll. Here are six bad impacts - and one good one. 

Image courtesy of © Brad Rempel-USA TODAY Sports

 

Two days ago, we framed the Twins payroll situation, emphasizing that before the individual roster decisions needed to be made, some more significant decisions needed to be made. The top one was what the Twins would do about their expiring $54M TV deal. 

What is clear is that $55M in gross revenue is at stake. The Twins (and most MLB clubs) claim they spend slightly over 50% of their gross revenue on players' salaries. That could mean an estimated $30M drop in payroll. That's the bad news. 

The really bad news came yesterday: that is the plan. Dan Hayes reported that the Twins Opening Day payroll is likely in the $125-$140M range, down roughly $15-30M from last year's ~$155M Opening Day Payroll. If you play with Twins Daily's Payroll Blueprint for even five minutes, you'll see just how limiting that is because their default payroll is already $115-$125M. 

Here are the six crummiest results you'll find.

1. See Ya, Sonny
The Twins were likely to be measured chasing free-agent starting pitching; they have been ever since Falvey took charge of the Twins in 2017. To return to last year's (admittedly) excellent standard, they must sign at least one pitcher that can replace the American League ERA leader, Sonny Gray. 

That's not going to happen now. Today's Offseason Handbook story details the starting pitching market and categorizes players as "too hot" (the Twins won't pay that much), "too cold" (the Twins can afford them, but they don't replace Gray), or "just right" (they can replace Gray but could be expensive). 

Today's news means they're targeting pitchers that only need a one-year contract, all of whom will fall in the "too cold" or below category. They could sign a pitcher at the level of Kenta Maeda, or a riskier pitcher with higher upside on a make-good contract, or a veteran #4 or #5 pitcher who can eat some innings. But whomever they choose, they aren't replacing Gray - or anyone even near his level - via free agency.

2. So-so Center Fielder and Blowing Off Batters
Dreaming of adding that big, right-handed bat this winter? Keep dreaming. Unless payroll is subtracted in some other way (which we'll get to), this cut only leaves money for one mediocre bat to be added. That one is likely spoken for: the Twins need a center fielder.

With Michael A. Taylor becoming a free agent and Byron Buxton's health in question, center field is the one "to do" that must get done. This payroll cut means it won't be a high-end option like Cody Bellinger or Japan's Jung Hoo Lee. The Twins are likely limited to precisely the level of Taylor or below while hoping that some of their prospects, like Austin Martin, challenge for the role by midyear. 

3. Desirable Duo
The Twins want Max Kepler and Jorge Polanco on the roster next year. The veteran duo will not need to be moved to hit the new payroll level. But trading either would give the team an additional $10M for other needs.

So, while the Twins won't actively shop Polanco and Kepler, they won't need to. Polanco is more valuable than any other second baseman (indeed, middle infielder) free agent. Max Kepler would be a top-10 hitter in this thin free-agent market. Teams looking to get better are already asking about them. In addition, any team the Twins approach about a trade (for, perhaps, a starting pitcher) will ask for Polanco or Kepler as a possible return. 

So, this cut doesn't mean they'll be moved; I'd still put the chances as less than 50% that either will be traded. But it does mean the Twins front office will have a better reason to listen. 

4. Farewell Farmer
The Twins have one borderline case for arbitration, and payroll cuts are not good news for borderline arbitration cases. Offering Kyle Farmer arbitration guarantees him approximately $6-7M to be a utility player. The Twins now need that money for a less luxurious role, like a center fielder.

Farmer will either be non-tendered by the Twins next week before the non-tender deadline (11/18) or traded to a team that needs a shortstop, the same way the Twins did when they acquired Farmer last year. Either way, he won't be on next year's roster. 

5. Harvesting the Farm
Don't get too attached to your favorite Twins' prospect because this cut means it's much more likely they'll get traded away this year. If the Twins can't replace their pitching or center fielder with money, they'll resort to trading prospects. The good news is that this has often worked well for the Twins. Jake Odorizzi, Gray, Maeda, and Taylor came from trading away prospects. 

6. Foul Up Fan Support
After waiting almost 20 years for a postseason win, Twins fans finally experienced a postseason run. When the Twins won that first game of the Wild Card Round and then advanced, tickets that cost $4 for Game 1 of the Wild Card were selling for $100 for Game 3 of the ALDS. 

That support, I'm sure the Twins hoped, would transform into season ticket holders. But the easiest way to squash any support from the Twins fan base is to threaten their team by withholding resources. 

Minnesotans are too familiar with that song after hearing it for 60+ years and multiple ownership groups. This storyline has plagued the Twins throughout their career and is the single most damaging narrative to marketing the team. And now the team is reinforcing it.  

7. The Silver Lining is Streaming
One piece of good news: the Twins clearly understand the value of streaming their games on the internet. Streaming rights have been the source of this conflict, ending their TV deal. If they're sacrificing tens of millions of revenue, they think they have identified avenues for fans to stream content in 2024 that have not existed for years. 

Whatever the new TV solution is, those fans who have cut the cord will get to watch their Twins in 2024 and beyond. It'll just be a more financially slimmed-down version of the team.

 

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[Vanimal46]

This is not surprising news, but still disappointing to hear. The successful playoff run should easily cover the losses from the previous TV contract and the new one. I get it though... The Pohlads have always ran the Twins as a year over year business, so the playoff money means nothing to them when planning for 2024. 

As far as your 6 points John, I mentally said good bye to Sonny Gray the second the season ended. It felt like a 1% chance he was coming back before the payroll reduction was announced. I still think they need to keep one of Polanco and Farmer. Farmer has more versatility in the IF at this point in their careers... I think we may need to prepare to say goodbye to Polanco, not Farmer. 

Your final paragraph in point #6 can't be emphasized enough. 

Quote

Minnesotans are too familiar with that song after hearing it for 60+ years and multiple ownership groups. This storyline has plagued the Twins throughout their career and is the single most damaging narrative to marketing the team. And now the team is reinforcing it.  

 

[Cory Engelhardt]

Regarding #1; they like to trade for starting pitching instead of buying it in free agency. I'm happy that Sonny will probably get a 4 year deal elsewhere (he earned it) but I don't know that I can personally bank on him replicating his 2023 again.

Regarding #2, it'll be good to have insurance again for Buxton. IF he can play some, great. That said, I wouldn't be shocked to see them start to move him to a corner at some point, even given health. Bringing in a Kiermaier to platoon with Martin (or even Keirsey, and Castro) is fine for depth. But it still all really depends on if Buxton's knee is healthy for 2024. If it is, then having a lower payroll truly won't matter. That is a big if it seems.

Regarding #3, Brooks Lee. And if Kepler can bring back a good reliever for example, this isn't really truly a problem for production in 2024.

Regarding #4 Farmer is a good utility player. So is Willi Castro and presumably Austin Martin. If you can get a B prospect for Farmer's last year on his current contract/team control, that is a big win.

Regarding #5, my favorite current Twins prospects are Brooks Lee and Walker Jenkins. Those two aren't going anywhere.

Regarding #6, this is the first one I truly agree with, at least for bottom line. Winning will solve this though. 

 

[UK Twin]

The way I interpret what Falvey said is the Twins simply aren't going to match their payroll from this year. Which is understandable given the uncertainty of the TV revenue. Last season's payroll smashed the previous high anyway. Dan Hayes has reported that we will likely have a payroll of between 125-140mill for next year. Currently we have 90mill in guaranteed contracts. That still gives us at least 35mill to spend and we haven't got that many holes to fill. We need a new SP (assuming Gray rejects the QO), a CF, 1B, bullpen arms. Possibly a couple of other replacements depending on who we trade. It's mostly depth with position players so they won't cost too much. The SP will be the main cost if we go the free agency route. Having so many productive rookies this year makes us so much more flexible than it could have been. I'm not concerned about the reduced payroll. 

[JDubs]

The Pohlads had finally, finally started to shed the image of cheapskates who never spend and now the second there is the slightest adversity, they chuck it all and go back to being miserly bums. Way to destroy all of the goodwill and optimism, not to mention kneecapping a team that was on the rise and will now go back to mediocrity.

[UK Twin]

5 minutes ago, UK Twin said:

The way I interpret what Falvey said is the Twins simply aren't going to match their payroll from this year. Which is understandable given the uncertainty of the TV revenue. Last season's payroll smashed the previous high anyway. Dan Hayes has reported that we will likely have a payroll of between 125-140mill for next year. Currently we have 90mill in guaranteed contracts. That still gives us at least 35mill to spend and we haven't got that many holes to fill. We need a new SP (assuming Gray rejects the QO), a CF, 1B, bullpen arms. Possibly a couple of other replacements depending on who we trade. It's mostly depth with position players so they won't cost too much. The SP will be the main cost if we go the free agency route. Having so many productive rookies this year makes us so much more flexible than it could have been. I'm not concerned about the reduced payroll. 

Actually this is inaccurate, I forgot about arbitration numbers. Sorry!

[Dman]

Those are all good points by the OP.  I never had the Twins in the running for a difference making starter in Free Agency.  The higher payroll teams generally win those battles and the Twins seem averse to aging arms anyway unless they come cheap.

I never felt Farmer was safe and I think he could bring back equal or better value than what the Twins gave away given there is not much out there for shortstop this year.  Even if they trade Farmer I think if an overpay comes to fruition they move Polanco as well.  I know that might be a risky move but the Twins have options on the farm for the infield and Brooks Lee's batting line makes me think he could fill in sooner rather than later if truly needed.  Also short is covered by Correa, Lewis and Castro with Lee a likely option mid season.  I think it is a move they can afford to make if the trade value is worth making the move.

The Twins are going to get a lot of interest in Kepler this offseason.  Trading him could really hurt as he is a middle of the order bat and can play good defense.  I know Wallner can technically replace him to some degree and they can use Larnack and Kirilloff for left field but that seems like a dangerous way to go depth wise and there isn't much immediate help at AAA.  You could plug in Gordon and Castro at times but those bats are far less dangerous than Kepler.  Still I think they will get some very strong offers and if they can get an over pay Maybe it could be worth moving him?

I don't see the Twins being able to trade prospects for starting help this year as they don't need 5th starter types, they need front of the rotation and teams just don't trade guys like that away with years of control very easily.  More than likely they grab a vet at the end whose value has been lost and rely on the farm arms for the 5th, 6th and 7th starter roles.

At any rate if they want to strengthen other areas and reduce payroll they are going to need to make some trades.  Getting major league pitching for Polanco or Kepler seems unlikely but if it can be done that is ideal.  I would trade Polanco given the infield appears to be a strength now and into the future. Farmer is too expensive for what he brings to the team so I would trade him.  With the extra money try and fix center field or find a good free agent pitcher for the 5th spot.

[Vanimal46]

9 minutes ago, UK Twin said:

Currently we have 90mill in guaranteed contracts. That still gives us at least 35mill to spend and we haven't got that many holes to fill.

The guaranteed contract number you mentioned does not include arbitration contracts or pre-arbitration contracts. If we tender everyone in arbitration, plus the league minimum contracts, we are sitting at $119 million and change. If the payroll range is $125-140, that's $20 to work with to find a Sonny Gray replacement and find a CF who can play more often than not. 

[Whitey333]

I'm not surprised at all that the Twins are cutting payroll.  But I am disappointed.  After having a good year and even some playoff success, it is deflating.  Won't be the usual off-season of hoping we add a good player.  It will revert back to the  go as cheap as we can route and sign has-been players.  Kind of a slap in the face to loyal twins fans like me.  In a way it shows that they never did plan this payroll out.  Because now you have two guys, Correa and Buxton that will make well over 40% of the Twins payroll.  Not much left to build your team on.  We got a good shortstop out of it and a professional injured list performer.  And we are stuck with that for the next several years.  Great planning.

  

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

My guess is we end in the $135 to $140 range.  Ownership and Management get more visibility on the television and streaming income.  I actually could see in a year or two the combined amount is more than the recent television rights.  It is why Bally's wanted the streaming rights so badly.  I am curious how many people would purchase to stream.  I think in my family alone you would 3-4 if it was a reasonable price.   You will no longer get the fee from all cable subscribers but those that are interested will be willing to pay up.  You will still then have the Television contract still available.   I think even with ownership and management a 20% cut is too large.   

So what is the most likely outcome,  we will be trading some good players and/or prospects.  I could easily see the Yankees being interested in Kepler.  Polanco would entice many teams.  Farmer will get sent out for a prospect slightly better than the one we sent out.  Of the prospects and young players,  that means 1 or more of Julien, Brooks, Soto,  Raya, Rodriguez and either young players and prospects are likely to get traded.  Julien Brooks and Soto will likely have the highest value, so if we are going after a good player with control those are the likely candidates.  I think Jenkins and Lewis will be off limits.  Will have to wait and see.   

[Twins_Fan_in_NJ]

I think the headline reads far worse than the actual reality of the situation.

The Twins were never going to bring in a high-priced free agent pitcher to replace Gray. Would've been nice, but it was a pipe dream. I think the Twins are more likely to try and leverage top prospects for a starting pitcher making less than Gray and one that is under team control for 2+ seasons. I have no idea what pitchers fall into that category or what the market for those pitchers will be but the Twins have done it before and they'll likely do it again.

Loved Farmer's leadership but there isn't a better leader in baseball than Carlos Correa and if the Twins are looking to free up some $$$, Farmer's gone. That was probably the case regardless of the recent payroll news.

 

 

[Major League Ready]

The payroll is $104M without Polanco and $98M without Polanco and Farmer.  It will not be necessary to trade both players and Kepler is not going anywhere unless they get an offer they can't refuse.   If Polanco is the only one traded, they will still have $36M to spend if they get to the high end of the estimate $140M.  

They were not going after Bellinger even with $150M budget and there is very little in the form of big RH bats available in free agency that fit this roster.  They don't have to trade any of Kepler / Polanco and Farmer.  However, they could make payroll room for a significant SP signing by moving one of them.  Polanco is the most likely of the three because the platoon of Julien / Farmer is better than having Polanco at 2B and Lewis is a much better option at 3B.

[specialiststeve]

As have stated in other rooms around here. Is perfect timing to move on from Polanco and Kepler. I have them saving 20 million if moving both not 10. Along with Farmer moving on that should be about a 25 million dollar savings. If you can give Buxton away for anything that would be 40. ALL replaceable within the system and would allow for more pitching as that is where this team is going to flourish.. ala Tampa Bay. 

[TwinsDr2021]

24 minutes ago, specialiststeve said:

As have stated in other rooms around here. Is perfect timing to move on from Polanco and Kepler. I have them saving 20 million if moving both not 10. Along with Farmer moving on that should be about a 25 million dollar savings. If you can give Buxton away for anything that would be 40. ALL replaceable within the system and would allow for more pitching as that is where this team is going to flourish.. ala Tampa Bay. 

I get Polanco, because there is some depth to back him up. (Lewis,Lee, Julien, Martin?) not sure there is much after that if there is an injury, sophomore slumps or not being good rookies. As for Kepler I can't believe after winning the division and a playoffs series the Twins going into next year with question marks at all three outfield positions. It seems very short sited to start next year with Larnach, Wallner, a questionable Buxton and some Taylor type player. With no real back up ready in the minors.

[Beast]

I’m hearing an awful lot about lower revenues, operating losses, etc.

The numbers on the income statement mean nothing for an MLB baseball team in terms of available resources.  There is so much non-cash crap running through there (depreciation, amortization, deferred, and unrealized items).

The items I want to see on their financials that will tell me what they can really afford:  Balance sheet, Cash Flow Statement and Statement of Retained Earnings.

People make it sound like they have to decrease payroll or risk some sort of insolvency.  That’s absolutely absurd.  They could run a payroll much larger they are and still be making money hand over fist.  They use numbers accounted for on a different basis to fit the “affordability” narrative.  I see the defenders switch from cash basis, to accrual basis, to whatever meaningless pile of numbers they can to paint a picture.  It’s disingenuous financial analysis.

In reality, the average MLB team value went up 12% in 2022.  They bought the team for $44 million.  They’ve earned nearly $1.5 billion in unrealized gains sitting in retained earnings.  That number doesn’t get factored into what they can afford, and the argument is “noncash.”  In the same breath, people will say, “they’re not cheap they had an operating loss last year.”  That includes all sorts of noncash stuff.  You need to the full picture, which nobody has.  What’s the EBIDTA?  Bet it’s nowhere near a loss.  What’s the owners draw from the company every year?  Bet it’s pretty healthy.

People like to talk like they’re so sure of the financial situation of this team, but have no idea what these numbers mean and how businesses actually accumulate value.  Freaking Amazon operates at a loss every year while Jeff Bezos has created a net worth of $150 Billion.  Would you buy it if they told you they had to cut salaries next year because they might lost a little bit of revenue that’s relatively insignificant to the companies actual value?

It’s insulting for them to come out and say “we can’t afford this or that, but everyone come spend absurd percentages if you disposable income on $12 cans of beer and tickets to watch us lose every GD year.”  All while they increased the cost of buying anything in Hennepin County by .15% to pay for their stadium, which increased their personal net worth by hundreds of millions.

Just a little perspective from my career experience.  I don’t blame them for making money and being frugal, good for them.  That’s how you make money in business.  But, all of the “they’re not cheap - look at the operating loss” I’ve been hearing lately is based on a false premise.

[Major League Ready]

40 minutes ago, specialiststeve said:

As have stated in other rooms around here. Is perfect timing to move on from Polanco and Kepler. I have them saving 20 million if moving both not 10. Along with Farmer moving on that should be about a 25 million dollar savings. If you can give Buxton away for anything that would be 40. ALL replaceable within the system and would allow for more pitching as that is where this team is going to flourish.. ala Tampa Bay. 

They won't need the money if they acquire pitching the way Tampa has acquired pitching.  Glasnow had not yet produced a 1 WAR season when Tampa acquired him and Eflin cost 40M over 3 years.   

[2wins87]

The timing of the lost revenue and payroll cuts is indeed very crummy.

They look to be at the start of a prime window of winning.  If they would have even just had a minor cut in payroll they could have done some very interesting things with the roster to really push for a potential championship.

The silver lining is that even running out their current team they would probably project for something close to 88 wins and a likely playoff berth.  With a few mid to minor improvements they should still be overwhelming favorites in the central.

I'm interested if a payroll shift will also result in a strategy shift.  They are probably dropping from around 16th in payroll to around 20th, so they're still not as constrained as teams like the Rays and the Guardians, but will they be constrained enough that maybe they will need to act a little more like them.  They've done a decent job of threading the needle by both trading away prospects and trading for them to get where they are now. 

To point #5 though, I'm really not sure if the payroll cut makes them more or less likely to trade prospects.  To build the best possible team next year within constraints, trading away the farm would probably be the only way to do it.  Long term though, they'll have a much smaller margin for error, and trading the farm could easily lead them to a place where they don't have a good major league team or a good farm.  A repeat of a long stretch of terrible teams like the early to mid 2010s or mid to late 90s is the worst outcome that must be avoided IMO.  They probably don't need to be as aggressive as the Rays who trade everyone as soon as they become moderately expensive, but trading from depth for young controllable assets probably needs to become a larger focus.  They also probably need to trust their youth a little more rather than hoarding depth.  They can't repeat something like paying $11 MM to roster Joey Gallo all year when he wasn't even better the Trevor Larnach, who could have at least gotten more experience and potentially improved more as a player.

One other thought.  The bubble in cable fees for live sports and broadcast revenue to teams has burst.  Bally is the first big sign, but all across the league in the upcoming years, broadcast deals will be getting less lucrative and streaming will not be replacing the revenue at least in the short term.  The Twins are among the teams getting hit earliest, but they are not alone and won't be the last team to be effected in this way.  If they can manage to continue fielding strong teams with modest long term commitments over the next few years they could still emerge in very good shape relative to much of the rest of the league.  But Falvey and Levine have much less room for error now.

[Fire Dan Gladden]

I am not buying it.  Everyone is acting like the TV contract is gone and it will not be replaced.  That is a load of hooey.  It make take some time to replace, but there will be a new contract in place somewhere with probably more money than they made last year.  Considering how close they are to being a WS team, it makes zero sense not to be financially competitive knowing that the money will be coming in at some point.

[saviking]

1 hour ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

Regarding #1; they like to trade for starting pitching instead of buying it in free agency. I'm happy that Sonny will probably get a 4 year deal elsewhere (he earned it) but I don't know that I can personally bank on him replicating his 2023 again.

Regarding #2, it'll be good to have insurance again for Buxton. IF he can play some, great. That said, I wouldn't be shocked to see them start to move him to a corner at some point, even given health. Bringing in a Kiermaier to platoon with Martin (or even Keirsey, and Castro) is fine for depth. But it still all really depends on if Buxton's knee is healthy for 2024. If it is, then having a lower payroll truly won't matter. That is a big if it seems.

Regarding #3, Brooks Lee. And if Kepler can bring back a good reliever for example, this isn't really truly a problem for production in 2024.

Regarding #4 Farmer is a good utility player. So is Willi Castro and presumably Austin Martin. If you can get a B prospect for Farmer's last year on his current contract/team control, that is a big win.

Regarding #5, my favorite current Twins prospects are Brooks Lee and Walker Jenkins. Those two aren't going anywhere.

Regarding #6, this is the first one I truly agree with, at least for bottom line. Winning will solve this though. 

 

Number 8 .. trading Correa recoups that money and note, ads a couple top 50 minor league prospects to our farm system while giving a path for Lewus and Lee to take over the left side of our infield. 

 

Correa is not a necessity he'd a luxury we can't afford. 

[Mike Sixel]

I'm guessing closer to 125, maybe lower, than 140.  I'm guessing Polanco is dealt for a pitching prospect or two. I'd rather keep Farmer because he can play SS..... But he is traded soon, I'd guess. 

They'll deal prospects for a more veteran pitcher, since they have more prospects after dealing Polanco and Farmer. Max will remain on the roster. 

[Dman]

13 minutes ago, 2wins87 said:

 

To point #5 though, I'm really not sure if the payroll cut makes them more or less likely to trade prospects.  To build the best possible team next year within constraints, trading away the farm would probably be the only way to do it.  Long term though, they'll have a much smaller margin for error, and trading the farm could easily lead them to a place where they don't have a good major league team or a good farm.  A repeat of a long stretch of terrible teams like the early to mid 2010s or mid to late 90s is the worst outcome that must be avoided IMO.  They probably don't need to be as aggressive as the Rays who trade everyone as soon as they become moderately expensive, but trading from depth for young controllable assets probably needs to become a larger focus.  They also probably need to trust their youth a little more rather than hoarding depth.  They can't repeat something like paying $11 MM to roster Joey Gallo all year when he wasn't even better the Trevor Larnach, who could have at least gotten more experience and potentially improved more as a player.

 

I agree with you here.  I don't think now is the time to trade away Lee or Jenkins and I don't know if Rodriguez quite gets a deal done or not but if Kepler leaves next year they need a replacement and Rodriguez is likely the guy they plug in there if not center field. Anything less than that makes me dubious about getting anything more than a 5th starter type which I think the Twins can fill in just fine via the farm or Free Agency.  

Remember to get Pablo we had to give the reigning AL batting champion.  It takes a lot to pry away good pitching and selling the farm seems short sighted to me.  I just don't think that is as easy a path as some seem to think.

If the team is going to act more like Tampa and Cleveland then it seems like trading Polanco for a good return would make some sense.  It could even be just to strengthen the young pitching on the farm.  His value will never be higher and there are a couple of teams who could really use his bat.  Still if this team is serious about another run keeping him sure is nice as well.  A switch hitting veteran bat that is pretty clutch ain't easy to find. So I go back and forth but there are only so many spots and with his injury history I just don't know which way is best.

I think payroll ends up around 130M tops and they need something better in center and one more starting pitcher at minimum.  A veteran reliever likely needs to be in their as well. Hard to say how they work the numbers, but I think it ends up with trading away players to gain space for those acquisitions.

[Sean.h]

Correction: Jung Hoo Lee may have been born in Japan, but he is a South Korean from the KBO. 

[Woof Bronzer]

Leave it to the Twins to take a season in which fans finally enjoyed a playoff victory and the playoff atmosphere at TF was electric....and throw all that goodwill away by cutting payroll.  For an organization who puts so much emphasis on spin and PR I find it shocking (and probably telling) that they think this is going to go over well.  

They're going to broadcast the games.  They're going to get revenue from it.  Do your job, Dave St Peter, and negotiate a solid deal, and quit whining about it.  

There is zero excuse for cutting payroll.  Every year the team should have the highest payroll ever in team history; that's how economics works, Derek.  Surely the smartest guy in the room understands inflation, right?  The Twins have been consistently in the 18-22 range in terms of payroll relative to the rest of the league, last year included.  They should be talking about increasing payroll to take advantage of a window of opportunity with the terrible Central, a pretty open AL in general, and a few years of Correa and Lewis and Lopez.  The Twins, as much as any organization, should know that windows rarely stay open as long as you think they will.  See 2011 and 2021 for recent examples.  

The Twins can invest some of the massive profits they've made over the years back into the team.  They can capitalize on the astounding increase in franchise value that the Pohlads have achieved over the decades they've owned the team.  They can use some of the billions of dollars the family is worth.  

But they won't.  They'll revert to who they always were:  a cheap organization far more focused on making cash than winning.  

It really sucks being a fan of this organization.   

[roger]

Great article, John, enjoyed it.

No way do I want to speculate what payroll will be, how they will get there and who will, or won't, be moved.  Got a feeling the Twins also don't know what their payroll will be because until they have a firm number on revenue, they must remain flexible.  

As for replacing Gray, I am confident their #2 starter next year is going to be Paddack.  That's assuming Gray doesn't accept the QO.  Have always believe he could be special and that belief was enhanced last month.  What they won't have is the depth of pitchers, and other players, they had last year.  At least they won't have veteran depth.  Maybe some of the young kids coming up will do as well as last year's class.

What I do know is the next few months are going to be exciting and remain hopeful that come March I like the team that takes the field in Fort Myers.  Also remain hopeful there is some way I can watch them play next summer.

[LA Vikes Fan]

1 hour ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

I get Polanco, because there is some depth to back him up. (Lewis,Lee, Julien, Martin?) not sure there is much after that if there is an injury, sophomore slumps or not being good rookies. As for Kepler I can't believe after winning the division and a playoffs series the Twins going into next year with question marks at all three outfield positions. It seems very short sited to start next year with Larnach, Wallner, a questionable Buxton and some Taylor type player. With no real back up ready in the minors.

There's really three questions. First, I think this is right. Kepler stays, Polanco goes if there is a good trade option for pitching prospects. Not because Kepler is better than Polanco but because we have a replacement for Polanco in Julien, with Martin and Lee waiting behind him. Keeping Kepler keeps Kirilloff at 1B where he belongs probably in a platoon type situation with Miranda. The $10m we save goes either towards a starter, reliever, or CF. I'd rather keep Polanco because I think he's one of the most clutch hitters on the team but trading him just makes too much logical sense if we can get a good return.  

Second is Farmer. Would love to keep him. Good leader, solid to excellent fielder, can play SS, relatively cheap at $5-6m a year. I would be surprised if he's non-tendered. Wrong poker move. You tender him, try to sign him for $4-5m with a promise not to trade him, if he says no you go to arb where he probably gets $6m, and then you decide what to do. By then, the landscape will be in much better focus. Not smart to just give him away for free with a non-tender. Yes, he is replaceable with Castro and Gordon, who are not as good, and Lewis, Castro or Lee can play SS if Correa gets hurt. The good news is that if he is made available Farmer is the best SS option out there for a needy team, by far.  I think a package of Farmer plus a solid prospect (think Prato, Keirsey, or Martin, not Festa, Lee or Jenkins) might be the basis for a solid to strong MLB reliever or even a really good AA pitcher, plus a high upside A ball guy from another team. As with Polanco, I think it depends on whether there's a good trade out there for Farmer. 

Third, what do we do for starting pitching? I don't think we sign a FA starter to replace Gray who only stays if he takes the QO or something in that range over 2 years. I think that's unlikely. Let's not forget that the Twins may think they already have his replacement in Chris Paddack.  I could see us using some of the money from trading Polanco and/or Farmer to sign a #4 starter or reclamation type. Think Seth Lugo, James Paxton,  Frankie Montas - someone that will take 1 or 2 yrs at $10-14m a year. That may even be Kenta Maeda for a little less than that. 

If you trade Polanco and/or Farmer, that gives you $5-15m depending on the salaries of the guys you get back. You add that to the $10-15m in slack we have and you have enough for the back end or reclamation starter or a guy like Giolito on a 1 year prove it deal, a decent reliever, and for a Taylor or Kiermeir to play CF. IF you don't trade either, you roll with what you have by re-signing Taylor and maybe Maeda for the $10-15m you already have and Varland is the #5 or #6 starter. I like option 1 the best much I would like to keep Polanco and Farmer, but could live with option 2.   

[Mike Sixel]

I think this also guarantees varland stays a starter. They aren't spending huge money on a free agent, marking the guy they get is higher risk to be great, meaning they need the depth. That's my theory anyway.

Typical Twins to throw cold water on the fans immediately after success. Sigh. 

[Dave Lemke]

1 hour ago, specialiststeve said:

As have stated in other rooms around here. Is perfect timing to move on from Polanco and Kepler. I have them saving 20 million if moving both not 10. Along with Farmer moving on that should be about a 25 million dollar savings. If you can give Buxton away for anything that would be 40. ALL replaceable within the system and would allow for more pitching as that is where this team is going to flourish.. ala Tampa Bay. 

Once again, Buxton has a no trade contract. He's not going anywhere. 

[Cory Engelhardt]

6 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

I think this also guarantees varland stays a starter. They aren't spending huge money on a free agent, marking the guy they get is higher risk to be great, meaning they need the depth. That's my theory anyway.

Typical Twins to throw cold water on the fans immediately after success. Sigh. 

I'll take that bet. 

[Cory Engelhardt]

41 minutes ago, saviking said:

Number 8 .. trading Correa recoups that money and note, ads a couple top 50 minor league prospects to our farm system while giving a path for Lewus and Lee to take over the left side of our infield. 

 

Correa is not a necessity he'd a luxury we can't afford. 

This isn't a video game. He has a full no trade clause. 

[saviking]

1 minute ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

This isn't a video game. He has a full no trade clause. 

So he will hold us hostage ..