Carlos Correa is the Twins' Biggest Problem

[Cody Pirkl]

The offense continues to struggle up and down the lineup, as the Twins hover around .500 and fail to get on any run of success. While many hitters are underperforming, Carlos Correa is the biggest issue.

Image courtesy of Jesse Johnson-USA TODAY Sports

 

All was lost on multiple occasions this offseason as the Twins appeared to wait out the Carlos Correa sweepstakes to the point that the rest of the free agent market was bare. Two deals miraculously failed in order to deliver Correa back to Minnesota, with many worrying about a sketchy physical on his ankle that could become a problem. Health could still be a long-term concern, but the Twins have bigger issues present day.

Considering his career, Correa is the type of hitter that you pencil into the top four of a lineup daily. Correa's previous track record was a draw for the Twins, who needed another star player to pair with Byron Buxton and help soften the blow of his inevitable missed time. So far in 2023, Correa's reputation as a top-of-the-lineup hitter has cost the Twins dearly.

It's no secret that Correa has been a massive disappointment. He remains a below-league-average hitter as we near the halfway point, showing no consistency at the plate and often appearing to be completely guessing on the next pitch he'll see. 
It's hard even to call him streaky, as he's rarely even put together consecutive games of contributing to the offense in any fashion whatsoever. Multiple times he's taken one big swing to revive hope that he had awakened from his season-long slumber, only to return to his rally-killing ways. And therein lies a massive problem with the Twins' offense.

A struggling hitter is a struggling hitter, and it's primarily a bummer when said struggling hitter is the recent recipient of the largest contract in Twins' history. The problem is that Correa's struggles come in the biggest spots because of where he hits in the lineup. Too often, the Twins have lined up a rally for the 2nd, 3rd, or 4th spot in the order that Correa is occupying, only for him to come up empty. There are multiple pieces of evidence showing just how damaging he's been.

For starters, Correa leads the American League in double plays grounded into. That is a brutal stat for a player to have in the middle of the lineup. Not only is he struggling with runners on in general, but he also has a .606 OPS with runners in scoring position. As disappointing as he's been overall with a .695 OPS, Carlos Correa has dipped even lower when it matters most. This poor performance is all captured in his team-worst Win Probability Added.

The Twins don’t get many rallies going, but when they do and they fall on Carlos Correa, they’re often snuffed out in short order. It all may be a result of randomness, but Correa’s struggles come with bright red flags in 2023.

As Correa nears just 29 years of age, he appears to have declined in a way you’d expect from a hitter in their mid-30s. He’s hitting .183 against fastballs with his worst expected stats against heaters of his entire career. His whiff rate on fastballs is his worst since 2016. It’s likely a big reason he’s barely managing a .700 OPS when ahead in the count. Hopefully it’s a problem with approach rather than a decline in bat speed. Either way, it’s too easy for opposing pitchers to simply throw fastballs and get Correa out so far in 2023.

It's becoming more and more evident that organization-wide issues are at play when it comes to the Twins' offense. Throw a dart at the lineup card, and you'll likely hit a player underperforming. That said, Carlos Correa is the biggest potential game-changer in the offense, and he's often changed the game in the opposition's favor in 2023. Carlos Correa has to find some consistency, or the rest of the offensive issues don't matter.

 

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[Twins_Fan_For_Life]

I think his plantar faciitis is affecting his hitting.   I have had pf, and it SUCKS.

[Karbo]

He needs to be dropped down in the lineup. IMO hitting 7th or 8th.

[Riverbrian]

HIs defense at SS has been wonderful... I'll give him that. That has value. 

But on a team that is dying for lack of offense and based on the grand canyon difference between what he should be doing at the plate and what he is doing... Yeah... I'll agree... if you had to point at the biggest problem... Correa would be at the top of the list. 

I think Kepler and Gallo have been worse but neither of them are a total surprise to perform like they have. They've been doing this for years now. If Correa is doing what he is supposed to be doing, Gallo doesn't hurt as much... So Yeah... Correa is the biggest problem. 

[Whitey333]

If his plantar faciatis is so bad he shouldn't be playing.  But I will say it makes for a convenient excuse.  Correa and Buxton have been killing this team.  If they are as hurt as Baldelli claims they should be put on the IL indefinitely until they can play.  Plus it's hard a lot of times to take Baldelli seriously anyway.  He isn't very transparent.  Last season he kept telling us its the process not the results that we are interested in.  Really? If that were to happen in normal corporate America that person would be gone.  Also last year when both Correa and Buxton were somewhat decent Rocco had the both scheduled off on some home games.  Hus response?  I'm not sure what to do when they are scheduled off the same day.  OMG what incompetence!  Those thought processes continue this season.  Nothing changes.  Rocco is a big part of the problem with the Front Office an even bigger part.

[specialiststeve]

Actually David Popkins the hitting coach and Baldelli are our biggest problems. 

Their direction in the hitting department (all or nothing mentality and lacking a

quality plan at the plate) and Baldelli's lack of overall ability to adjust 

to the new game with the new rules is "our biggest" problem.

Am hoping for a change very soon. Too much talent on this team and system to be where we are at. 

[Dave Borton]

39 minutes ago, Twins_Fan_For_Life said:

I think his plantar faciitis is affecting his hitting.   I have had pf, and it SUCKS.

Ditto here.

I can not imagine trying to go laterally, hit a ball, or dig out of the box with it.

He's hurting. Put him on IL today, rest thru post A/S game, run Farmer and Lewis at short. Get him rested and out of the top of the lineup.

[mnfireman]

So now its Correa? It has been, in no particular order, Kepler, Rocco, Pagan, Buxton, Larnach, Popkins, Falvey, Levine, Lopez, Lopez, Solano, Castro, Miranda and the trade of Arraez according to the TD staff and users. At least we know where to start to fix the problem.

 

[Cap'n Piranha]

Left unmentioned so far are the reports that Correa supposedly took Miranda under his wing in the off-season—and Miranda promptly turned into a bad AAA player.

[TopGunn#22]

The Twins certainly expected a LOT more out of Correa.  But they certainly expected a LOT more out of Buxton.  I would posit that those two hitters are essential for the Twins offense to be even average.  But those two guys alone don't account for striking out 16 times in a game.  The game yesterday was a microcosm of the Twins season.  Good pitching has the Twins down 2-0 in the 7th inning.  They put the first two guys on base...and the next three hitters all strike out! 

At this point the Twins have a better "run differential" than the Yankees but are 8 or 9 games worse.  It seems whenever Rocco taps a relief pitcher in a key part of a game disaster follows.  It may not be "reality" but it sure seems that way.  We're clinging to first place in a terrible division but look out.  Jose Ramirez is starting to heat up and if he stays hot and Correa and Buxton continue to flail and fail the Guardians will blow right past us.  There is a lot that SHOULD change.  How much changes and who is part of the change is debatable, but one thing is clear to me.  Since Rocco took the helm in 2019 with Falvey and Levine in our F.O. we won the division and set a major league HR record.  In 2020 we won a Covid shortened division title, and then in 2021, 2022 and now this season we've under achieved.  Whether it was the crap SP's like Happ and Shoemaker, Archer and Bundy the F.O. tried to pass off as major league worthy, the lack of truly trying to build a competitive bullpen or even signing a LH power hitting outfielder who K's a lot instead of a RH hitting outfielder when your roster already consisted of Kepler, Kirilloff, Larnach and Wallner (with your best RH hitting OF option Kyle Garlick) not much has gone right for our intrepid front office.  There could be a lot of empty seats at Target Field the second half of this season.  Change is needed.  Tough decisions loom.  How patient will the Pohlad family be??  

[Cody Pirkl]

45 minutes ago, specialiststeve said:

Actually David Popkins the hitting coach and Baldelli are our biggest problems. 

Their direction in the hitting department (all or nothing mentality and lacking a

quality plan at the plate) and Baldelli's lack of overall ability to adjust 

to the new game with the new rules is "our biggest" problem.

Am hoping for a change very soon. Too much talent on this team and system to be where we are at. 

Something on the coaching staff could be the problem, but there's no tangible evidence we can measure on that. Correa's numbers have been terrible and they come in the biggest spots.

[Cody Pirkl]

39 minutes ago, mnfireman said:

So now its Correa? It has been, in no particular order, Kepler, Rocco, Pagan, Buxton, Larnach, Popkins, Falvey, Levine, Lopez, Lopez, Solano, Castro, Miranda and the trade of Arraez according to the TD staff and users. At least we know where to start to fix the problem.

 

People have different opinions!

[roger]

Yes, agreed Cody.

Doesn't make a difference what sport it is, but the team's veteran stars must be the team's on the field leaders.  My old Packers had Starr, Gregg, Kramer, Kramer, Taylor, Hornung, McGee, Nitschke, and Wood, plus others.  My Braves had Spahn, Burdette, Crandall, Mathews, Aaron, Logan and Adcock.  For the Twins, that's Buxton and Correa.  Add Kepler and Polanco who are veterans who have been around the longest and you have a group of four that should be providing the leadership.  With Correa in his second year with the biggest long-term contract, he needs to be out front. 

Additional leadership must come from the Manager and certain coaches.  I am not in the clubhouse or dugout, but all indications are that none of this group is providing that leadership.  And if they are, it sure as hell isn't making any difference.  I guess the good news is that with Correa around for another six years the Dior store should have a nice bottom line.

Eventually responsibility for success in all businesses comes back to the owner.  I don't know where the Twins will end the year, but an awful lot seems to be pointing to a replay of last year.  I guess the pitching is so good that a total collapse isn't likely, but a division crown certainly isn't looking good.

Should Cleveland win the division with a .500 +/- record with the Twins double digit games out, young Pohlad should be furious.  Having a computer running the team ain't working.  Hopefully, he will sit down with top management and demand change or resignations, whichever seems most appropriate.

[terrydactyls]

This article certainly was depressing.  I guess I'll go do some lawn maintenance to lift my spirits.

[Ole St Carleton]

Yes- his PF is hampering him- but his defense still warrants a place in the lineup, but should be batting 7 or 8.

The biggest problem that I see is Correa has appointed himself team captain and with his fairly good career and huge salary- it’s only natural. However, his leadership is horrible. I don’t see a lot of hustle or “leading by example”. His mood is completely dependent on his offensive performance at the time and, as we all know, that has been absolutely depressing. 

Rocco has now chewed out the team in public, but really this leadership problem falls into his lap. He needs to change Correa’s attitude- or bench him as an example. There is no accountability on this team

.….and Buxton needs to be shut down for the year.

[roger]

14 minutes ago, Ole St Carleton said:

Yes- his PF is hampering him- but his defense still warrants a place in the lineup, but should be batting 7 or 8.

The biggest problem that I see is Correa has appointed himself team captain and with his fairly good career and huge salary- it’s only natural. However, his leadership is horrible. I don’t see a lot of hustle or “leading by example”. His mood is completely dependent on his offensive performance at the time and, as we all know, that has been absolutely depressing. 

Rocco has now chewed out the team in public, but really this leadership problem falls into his lap. He needs to change Correa’s attitude- or bench him as an example. There is no accountability on this team

.….and Buxton needs to be shut down for the year.

No, Buxton needs to be shut down (placed on the IL) until he can play baseball.  That means batting and playing center field.

[strumdatjag]

Maybe Shortstop is no longer a position to invest in a longterm contract.  Take a look at this year’s mediocre to poor production from Francisco Lindor, Javier Baez, Xander Bogaerts and Trea Turner.   I liked the re-signing of Correa thinking about last September’s production (or was that just “garbage time” to use an NBA term?).    The division looked weak and the times didn’t seem to call for a slower and steadier rebuilding.  
But in retrospect, the Twins have an abundance of promising shortstop prospects - Royce Lewis looks like he’s halfway to being a future star and leader.   already.  Kyle Farmer, a starting SS last year with the Reds, was already on board.   AND maybe just maybe the Twins should have thought that they weren’t so much smarter than the Giants and the Mets (who are doing better with their overpriced, but merely mediocre shortstop Lindor).  
Now those Shortstop prospects are blocked long-term and the Twins May have to hope they can hoodwink another team into taking on a Josh Donaldson (or worse) type of player.    Best case scenario - it’s just foot pain and Correa returns to superstar form when it goes away.  He’s still a great defender. 

[IndianaTwin]

From the OP:

...For starters, Correa leads the American League in double plays grounded into. That is a brutal stat for a player to have in the middle of the lineup.... 

------------------------------------

Actually, it's not. The league leaders in GIDP almost always match Correa's profile. Guys with a lot of at bats, who aren't particularly fast, who hit the ball hard enough for the infield to turn two, who aren't the biggest strikeout offenders...

And the thing is, if you do all those things, a lot of the balls those guys hit go through the infield and over the infielders as line drives. Here's your list of career leaders in GIDP. I'll be glad if Correa ends up on this list:

 

[saviking]

2 hours ago, Karbo said:

He needs to be dropped down in the lineup. IMO hitting 7th or 8th.

It might wake him up. Seems like he's sleep walking at the plate right now but if c'orrea goes to the 8 slot Buxton should go to the 9

[joefish]

2 hours ago, Karbo said:

He needs to be dropped down in the lineup. IMO hitting 7th or 8th.

We don't have enough bottom of the order slots for all of our bottom of the order hitters.

[Cody Pirkl]

9 minutes ago, IndianaTwin said:

From the OP:

...For starters, Correa leads the American League in double plays grounded into. That is a brutal stat for a player to have in the middle of the lineup.... 

------------------------------------

Actually, it's not. The league leaders in GIDP almost always match Correa's profile. Guys with a lot of at bats, who aren't particularly fast, who hit the ball hard enough for the infield to turn two, who aren't the biggest strikeout offenders...

And the thing is, if you do all those things, a lot of the balls those guys hit go through the infield and over the infielders as line drives. Here's your list of career leaders in GIDP. I'll be glad if Correa ends up on this list:

 

I get the concept but he's 4 away from his career high in double plays halfway through the season... which he set last year. There's not really a point in painting this as a good thing when the overall numbers are so poor. If the context were that he's been producing overall and in the clutch but also happened to be leading the league in double plays it wouldn't be worth pointing out. That's the exact opposite of what's happening though.

[IndianaTwin]

1 minute ago, Cody Pirkl said:

I get the concept but he's 4 away from his career high in double plays halfway through the season... which he set last year. There's not really a point in painting this as a good thing when the overall numbers are so poor. If the context were that he's been producing overall and in the clutch but also happened to be leading the league in double plays it wouldn't be worth pointing out. That's the exact opposite of what's happening though.

Then how about saying, "For starters, Correa leads the AL in double plays grounded into, and he's already approaching his career high"?

That actually tells me that he's underperforming his expectations. Saying that he's leading the league while batting in the middle of the order doesn't tell me that -- the league leader is almost always in the middle of the order. 

[Longdistancetwins]

51 minutes ago, Ole St Carleton said:

Yes- his PF is hampering him- but his defense still warrants a place in the lineup, but should be batting 7 or 8.

The biggest problem that I see is Correa has appointed himself team captain and with his fairly good career and huge salary- it’s only natural. However, his leadership is horrible. I don’t see a lot of hustle or “leading by example”. His mood is completely dependent on his offensive performance at the time and, as we all know, that has been absolutely depressing. 

Rocco has now chewed out the team in public, but really this leadership problem falls into his lap. He needs to change Correa’s attitude- or bench him as an example. There is no accountability on this team

.….and Buxton needs to be shut down for the year.

Yes, I admit, I was one of those with a fan-crush on Correa for the way he conducted himself last year.  Unfortunately, it’s still possible to have leadership qualities and bad ideas—like supporting Popkins or deciding unilaterally that Buxton should DH.  Yes, he can still be a leader, but he needs to hustle consistently (like running out of the box, rather than admiring his rare home runs) and be a little humble about his analytical smarts

Thankfully, his D is still good.  I enjoy that.

[Woof Bronzer]

If I'm ranking biggest problems:

1.  Ownership.  It's no accident that the team's 30 year run of ineptitude has coincided with the Pohlad sons and now grandsons running the show.  Call it the franchise's Corporate Era.   

2.  Front office.  These guys are clearly in way, way over their head.  Is Derek Falvey really one of the 30 best performers at his job on the planet?  A smart but inexperienced leader would surround themselves with people who've done it before with success; Falvine surround themselves with young, inexperienced yes men like Baldelli and Popkins.  

3.  Correa.  He needs to eat a steady diet of humble pie, and he needs to focus less on being the legendary leader/honorary GM he has anointed himself to be, and more on being a better baseball player.

4.  Buxton.  His performance is actively hurting the team. 

5.  Coaching staff.  If they aren't part of the problem then coaches/managers truly are meaningless.  

[Peter Labuza]

Just to add, if you look at ZIPS Projections vs WAR doubled (aka what would their WAR total be if accounting for the whole season), Correa is down by 4.5 points. No other player is coming close.

[Greglw3]

2 hours ago, Whitey333 said:

If his plantar faciatis is so bad he shouldn't be playing.  But I will say it makes for a convenient excuse.  Correa and Buxton have been killing this team.  If they are as hurt as Baldelli claims they should be put on the IL indefinitely until they can play.  Plus it's hard a lot of times to take Baldelli seriously anyway.  He isn't very transparent.  Last season he kept telling us its the process not the results that we are interested in.  Really? If that were to happen in normal corporate America that person would be gone.  Also last year when both Correa and Buxton were somewhat decent Rocco had the both scheduled off on some home games.  Hus response?  I'm not sure what to do when they are scheduled off the same day.  OMG what incompetence!  Those thought processes continue this season.  Nothing changes.  Rocco is a big part of the problem with the Front Office an even bigger part.

Here here!

[Craig Arko]

I put Correa and Buxton as equals here. They were being counted on as the team leaders and just haven’t been. But I think the squad takes a lot of cues from them anyway.

[Sparky55]

3 hours ago, Karbo said:

He needs to be dropped down in the lineup. IMO hitting 7th or 8th.

I think we have a whole team of 7 8 and 9 spot hitters

[Schmoeman5]

Correa was a long term mistake. When the Twins signed him last year for 3/105 I thought it was a good deal for both. This past offseason the Mets and Giants both got cold feet on 12 and 13 year deals. So what do the Twins do. Offer him 6/200. No way in hell do I offer that deal. I go right back to the 3/105 with NO opt outs. He stays hungry which I honestly believe is part of the problem. Guys generally have career years before signing long term deals. Now they're stuck with him. Same as Buxton. No one is going to trade for broken players. Even if the Twins eat those contracts. 

[Cody Pirkl]

1 hour ago, IndianaTwin said:

Then how about saying, "For starters, Correa leads the AL in double plays grounded into, and he's already approaching his career high"?

That actually tells me that he's underperforming his expectations. Saying that he's leading the league while batting in the middle of the order doesn't tell me that -- the league leader is almost always in the middle of the order. 

Because not every middle of the order hitter is at the top of the leaderboards for grounding into double plays. There may be more middle of the order hitters on that leaderboard but that doesn't make it any less significant when a particular player is leading all of baseball in that category. That's just a small piece of info that alludes to how many rallies he's killed, and other examples of him not being clutch are referred to later.