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All was lost on multiple occasions this offseason as the Twins appeared to wait out the Carlos Correa sweepstakes to the point that the rest of the free agent market was bare. Two deals miraculously failed in order to deliver Correa back to Minnesota, with many worrying about a sketchy physical on his ankle that could become a problem. Health could still be a long-term concern, but the Twins have bigger issues present day.
Considering his career, Correa is the type of hitter that you pencil into the top four of a lineup daily. Correa's previous track record was a draw for the Twins, who needed another star player to pair with Byron Buxton and help soften the blow of his inevitable missed time. So far in 2023, Correa's reputation as a top-of-the-lineup hitter has cost the Twins dearly.
It's no secret that Correa has been a massive disappointment. He remains a below-league-average hitter as we near the halfway point, showing no consistency at the plate and often appearing to be completely guessing on the next pitch he'll see.
It's hard even to call him streaky, as he's rarely even put together consecutive games of contributing to the offense in any fashion whatsoever. Multiple times he's taken one big swing to revive hope that he had awakened from his season-long slumber, only to return to his rally-killing ways. And therein lies a massive problem with the Twins' offense.
A struggling hitter is a struggling hitter, and it's primarily a bummer when said struggling hitter is the recent recipient of the largest contract in Twins' history. The problem is that Correa's struggles come in the biggest spots because of where he hits in the lineup. Too often, the Twins have lined up a rally for the 2nd, 3rd, or 4th spot in the order that Correa is occupying, only for him to come up empty. There are multiple pieces of evidence showing just how damaging he's been.
For starters, Correa leads the American League in double plays grounded into. That is a brutal stat for a player to have in the middle of the lineup. Not only is he struggling with runners on in general, but he also has a .606 OPS with runners in scoring position. As disappointing as he's been overall with a .695 OPS, Carlos Correa has dipped even lower when it matters most. This poor performance is all captured in his team-worst Win Probability Added.
The Twins don’t get many rallies going, but when they do and they fall on Carlos Correa, they’re often snuffed out in short order. It all may be a result of randomness, but Correa’s struggles come with bright red flags in 2023.
As Correa nears just 29 years of age, he appears to have declined in a way you’d expect from a hitter in their mid-30s. He’s hitting .183 against fastballs with his worst expected stats against heaters of his entire career. His whiff rate on fastballs is his worst since 2016. It’s likely a big reason he’s barely managing a .700 OPS when ahead in the count. Hopefully it’s a problem with approach rather than a decline in bat speed. Either way, it’s too easy for opposing pitchers to simply throw fastballs and get Correa out so far in 2023.
It's becoming more and more evident that organization-wide issues are at play when it comes to the Twins' offense. Throw a dart at the lineup card, and you'll likely hit a player underperforming. That said, Carlos Correa is the biggest potential game-changer in the offense, and he's often changed the game in the opposition's favor in 2023. Carlos Correa has to find some consistency, or the rest of the offensive issues don't matter.







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