The Minnesota Twins Are Whiffing Away at a Momentous Opportunity

[darwin22]

Nick:  Very good analysis of the woes of this team.

After reading your story I was interested in researching how the "lack of significant HRs," especially over the last month plus has cratered this offense.

I couldn't find an easy way to research this so I reviewed the box scores of all 63 games played.  

Going into today the Twins were tied for 8th (with SF) at 78 HRs.  The (meaningless) solo shots today has team to 80 HRs.

My math might be a tad off, but I found a few interesting things:

1.  To nobody's surprise----zero, nada, zilch of the 80 HRs have come with the bases loaded.  I would guess that the Twins are one of a small number of teams that hasn't hit 1 grand salami all year.

2.  All 7 of Correa's HRs have been solo shots.  Zero with anyone on base.....ALL SEASON!.  Heck, even Kepler has two 2-run HRs. 

3.  Of our 80 HRs....47 have been with nobody on base, which is almost 60% of the time.  To be precise, 58.8% of HRs have been solo dingers.

4.  25% of HRs (20) have been 2-run HRs.  Only 1 of those this month courtesy of Lewis.

5.  The Twins have hit thirteen 3-run HRs on the season (16%), of which 9 came in April when the Twins stood at 17-12 at the end of the month.  Gallo and Buxton each hit three 3-run bombs in April. 

Since May 1st, Buxton has none and Gallo has one.  Larnach had two in May.  Team has a total of 4 since May 1st.

Not sure how our 60% solo HR rate compares to other teams, but I'd venture when you combine our HIGH whiff rate--#1 in MLB at 641 with our poor OPS (.708/ rank 22nd), its no surprise to this die hard fan (since the early 70s) that THIS TEAM AS PRESENTLY CONSTRUCTED is destined for ANOTHER sub .500 record.  

My interest/investment of this team is waning. I'm sure that includes many fans on this site.

[RickOShea]

Until ownership includes wins and losses as part of a success formula, nothing is going to change.  Fans measure success in terms  of the standings, while ownership/FO looks at the bottom line $. If we could work a compromise, I ultimately feel we can achieve both.  More wins equals more revenue.  More revenue should increase the payroll enough to bring in high quality players.  Our product is entertainment, not widget production.  

[ashbury]

2 hours ago, tarheeltwinsfan said:

I propose the Twins trade Kepler to Detroit for assistant hitting coach, James Rowson. 

The Tigers, who have scored the fewest runs in the majors at this writing?

[David Maro]

Got a invitation to Twins game against Boston when I will be in town visiting family. Told them I will be too busy to waste my time. I just saw the White Sox are now 1 game closer after beating the Yankees. They just got their closer back and are on a roll. This team is a mess and will be in 3rd place as of Sunday. Bad FO signings a long with poor coaching equal poor play. Hard to believe Taylor and Castro are the only ones that can run the bases. Don't tell me Buxton,because he only wants to hit homeruns. Every time he is on base he gets up like he just hurt himself. I see Lewis has fit right in with the team,strike out and hitting around 200 just like the rest of the strike out artists. Polhad's will have to step up and make changes in the off season or the stands will look like Oakland next year. 

 

[D.C Twins]

"One of those solutions could be adjusting how they approach their game plan. Under hitting coach David Popkins, the Twins are said to feature a technology-heavy approach, one championed by shortstop Carlos Correa. Last offseason, Correa described Popkins as the best hitting coach he’s ever had. But within the clubhouse, there’s some concern that not everyone is capable of handling the approach and the team may need to adjust how they prepare their hitters."

Well this encapsulates much that is wrong with the team.... overreliance on analytics, technology and Correa's input (see Buxton, Byron at DH... because, you know, he never gets injured at bat or on the basepath) 

Hopefully Popkins filling Lewis with nonsense advice isn't why he promptly went cold after joining the Twins 🙄

 

[Greglw3]

1 hour ago, Mike Sixel said:

anti intellectualism....classic.

Actually very intellectual and the opposite of the 

 

1 hour ago, Joey Self said:

If only this team had someone on it that could hit for average and get on base well above the MLB average.

Oh, never mind, they'd just trade him...

JcS

They've done it twice. Rod Carew and Luis Arraez!

[Greglw3]

5 minutes ago, Greglw3 said:

 

 

[Mike Sixel]

17 minutes ago, Greglw3 said:

Actually very intellectual and the opposite of the 

 

They've done it twice. Rod Carew and Luis Arraez!

Using the phrase nerds to describe the use of math is the opposite of anti intellectualism? Pravda!

[jkcarew]

Strike outs are A problem, not THEE problem. The best offenses in baseball K about 4 times less than the Twins for every 100 PA. That’s barely more than one K less per game. Today the Twins K’d only 7 times…yet, collective BA was under 200. The Cleveland Guardians K less than anyone (2nd lowest K rate)…and their offense has been beyond atrocious.

It’s the way the game is played now, like it or not. Some team is breaking the record…or almost breaking it…every year. Not that it wouldn’t help to K less. It would. But, that’s only one of the issues this lineup has. Below average BABiP team overall as well; XBH% barely league average, despite the small denominator; RISP struggles; lack of running game…

If the team was counting on building a batting order around Correa, Buxton, Kepler, Polanco, then the offense figured to be ‘not great’. Buxton is not a great hitter…in fact, has never even been a good hitter over a stretch of more than 100 games. Correa has been a great player, but only a ‘good’ hitter. Kepler was sinking fast headed into the season. And Polanco is ‘pretty good’ and often injured. That’s not a heart-of-the-batting order that’s striking much fear in opponents. With the so-called depth, I called this lineup high floor, low ceiling coming out of spring training. Certainly have tested the floor. Gotta hope Kirilloff and Lewis are real…maybe one of Wallner/Julien…and go from there.

[Eris]

I have looked up the K% of players who were on different teams last year. Taylor, Farmer, Castro, Vasquez all have K% about 10% higher than last year. Solano, is 3% higher and Gallo is about 2% lower. 
 

I don’t think these differences happened by coincidence. Add to this that several ex-Twins are doing really well. 

[tarheeltwinsfan]

2 hours ago, ashbury said:

The Tigers, who have scored the fewest runs in the majors at this writing?

Uh oh.  Thanks for the information.

[DocBauer]

You're absolutely right Nick, this team is wasting opportunity like I've  ever seen before. The problem and question is how to fix it?

1] No comparisons need to be made, this is a top rotation. They've done their job, even IF you want to open previous discussions...ridiculous...that they've occasionally left their starters in too long for some bad 7th innings.

2] I'm tired of the bullpen arguements. No doubt there have been some BAD days. Jax wax fine early, had some crazy bad happen, got "unglued" and has looked much better lately. Duran is still great, but not perfect. Thielbar is back. Moran has gotten on track. Stewart has been a find. Lopez looked great early, and stinks now. Can they get him right? It's important that they do so,  just Iike Jax. Is it a confidence issue? Or a change in his mix? Despite the pen not quite matching the performance of the rotation, they haven't really been that bad. And there is real hope and opportunity to see the pen get even deeper and better. But when the pen allows a run or two in a close game, their "failure" becomes magnified as the reason the Twins lost. But when you CAN'T SCORE RUNS, anything negative the pen does is magnified and amplified. 

3] How in hell is this offense so bad???

Correa is a STUD. He's known for slow starts. He did the same in 2022, before "waking up" and got going. Can he fight through his plantar fasciitis and still be his usual self?

Buxton is also a STUD. He's streaky as a hitter, and might always be so. But he's a difference maker when remotely healthy.  He had an OPS above .800 a couple of weeks ago before his recent cold streak and rib injury.

These 2 guys are difference makers and not going anywhere. And the Twins NEED them.

Polanco is one of the best players on the team. Solid defense and quality offense, power and clutch hitting. And NOT a K machine. Now he's injured again, but is pretty awesome when healthy. 

Gallo has been exactly as hoped for, good defense wherever you place him, poor BA, quality OB, great power and RBI producer. But he's better as a 6 or 7 spot in the lineup hitter. But now he's hurt.

The Twins have been getting surprising results from their bench, Taylor, Castro, and Solano. But that's not how you build a quality lineup on a daily  basis.

The best base stealers are bench players, though Buxton has helped where he can. And our best bunters are our catchers and bench players. And the Twins have been WAY more aggressive in bunts and SB the last month, and I credit Rocco for being more aggressive. 

But the simple fact is this team's offense has been inconsistent, if not lethargic! 

TWO or fewer runs scored in 25 games played!

As fans, we want changes. But what do we change? Correa and Buxton have underperformed, but we know their talent and they are not only capable of making a difference, but they aren't going anywhere. Miranda bottomed out with a sophomore jinx? Kiriloff is doing all he can do. Lewis raked when he came up, hit a couple games cold spell, but can still make a difference. 

Jeffers needs more playing time based on production and ironically, time with Popkins. 

The FO needs to just replace Kepler with opportunity for Wallner and Larnach and let it ride. They should have done this before the season started, even with lower defensive value.

I LOVE Polanco. But if he's really and truly starting to  break down, it's time to make a change. 

When your offense is bad at historical levels, you just have to try something different, especially when you have top prospects with projectible ability.

Coaches can only coach so much. And  any hitting coach can only do so much. And Popkins might, or might not be a good hitting coach. But at some point it's also on the talent of the players you have. And I think it's TIME to trust in the young talent on hand and let things play out.

What else do the Twins do, trade MORE prospect talent for a bat or two that might not  be as good as what's on hand?

Its time to trust the "kids" 

[ToddlerHarmon]

4 hours ago, mikelink45 said:

Yes strikeouts matter.  I have argued that for years, I also believe in BA, I believe singles count, that contact is essential to making things happen.  It might not be the on field leadership that needs to change.  It might be the nerds who are sending messages that don't work.  Let's change both. 

All this. The all-or-nothing results pointed out in the article aren't some fluke of luck. They are the predictable result of not enough baserunners, and not enough contact to keep them moving. On the rare days that 5 or 6 mighty uppercut whiffs connect for an extra-base-hit, you get 7 plus runs and look amazing. On the twice-as-likely days when only 2 or 3 swings connect, you look like, well, the Twins.

I'm here to preach that your love for BA is NOT clinging to a pre-analytics world. Here's the math that Billy Beane listened to that Falvine refuse to hear: it's the number of games where you score runs that matter, not the number of runs you score.

As far as specific hitting approach goes, the (broken) SLG approach loves maximum exit velocity and high launch angle, which makes an easy formula for strikeouts - just pitch high and low, and watch the popups and choppers and whiffs pile up. The (useful) OBP approach loves a level swing and letting pitches travel, defanging vertical movement and velocity changes. Yes, it means Luis Arraez will hit fewer homers, but on the other hand, Joey Gallo or Byron Buxton could leave a few MPH of exit velocity in the tank and still clear the wall.

[stringer bell]

I agree that the hitters need to do a better job of making contact. Having a two-strike approach isn't giving up on the at-bat. Not chasing with two strikes is an easy area of improvement. 

Teams look terrible when they aren't hitting. There's time for a recovery, but they have squandered a chance to open up a big lead and it's about 90% on the hitters.

[Greglw3]

3 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

Using the phrase nerds to describe the use of math is the opposite of anti intellectualism? Pravda!

Something got mixed up, I’ve long had trouble with lag times and freezes with this editor.

My argument, which I tried to erase, was probably not directed at anything you said.

You probably don’t agree but my only point was to agree with whoever said they believe in batting average, In my lifetime, I’ve seen .388 and .189 and I like the .388 guy quite a bit better. I wish they’d release the .189 guy.

I never saw the post about nerds.

[Mike Sixel]

17 minutes ago, Greglw3 said:

Something got mixed up, I’ve long had trouble with lag times and freezes with this editor.

My argument, which I tried to erase, was probably not directed at anything you said.

You probably don’t agree but my only point was to agree with whoever said they believe in batting average, In my lifetime, I’ve seen .388 and .189 and I like the .388 guy quite a bit better. I wish they’d release the .189 guy.

I never saw the post about nerds.

Fair. I agree that not making outs is the number one ability of a hitter. 

[Lasorda_This_Out]

If you're missing the ball you're not hitting the ball? To hit the ball you can't miss the ball?

But if you miss the ball you're not hitting the ball? To hit the ball you cannot be missing the ball?

So, to hit the ball you need to HIT the ball? Not MISS the ball?

So, if your job in the Minnesota Twins MLB organization is to see that players hit the ball and not miss the ball...

What are you doing?

Why do you even have a job?

[awmonahan]

It's tough. All you can do is ditch Kepler and give Jeffers more at bats. And I'm not sure that solves the Ks from those positions. Buxton can't play the field, and could use a break. As could Correa. But, it's the key players struggling and K'ing. You just have to hope they come out of it. 

[Dr Katz]

The Twins need a hitter for average, oh wait, they had the best one Arraez, and traded him away. What were they thinking, he's doing pretty well for another team too. They are now a team of 'Sanos', striking out at record pace and just brutal to watch. 

[Karbo]

I have heard Rocco keep saying he can live with all the K's due to hitting with power. Don't you have to make contact to hit with power? IMHO, Rocco and the hitting coach either must change the hitting approach or be replaced!

[MABB1959]

15 hours ago, HokieRif said:

If everyone is hitting poorly I find it incredibly hard to believe they are all regressing independently. Either Popkins’ approach goes, or Popkins needs to go. If either of those isn’t an option, then Rocco needs a pink slip. 

If the hitting coach goes then Rocco should as well.  I watched the Toronto vs Houston game and the managers knew how to manufacture runs and they called good games for the pitchers as well.  It was nice to watch.  I love Buxton but he is not a good or even average DH.  They desperately need a Nelson Cruz like player at DH and in front of the players with above average OBPs.   It sucks not having a player with a good chance of hitting a HR.  They need a good stable #5 hitter.  It seems lately the 1 - 3 hitters can’t get on base and more often than not they strike out.   I would say it is the most boring line-up ever constructed.  They are almost dead last in stolen bases another exciting part of baseball.  

[Riverbrian]

40 minutes ago, Karbo said:

I have heard Rocco keep saying he can live with all the K's due to hitting with power. Don't you have to make contact to hit with power? IMHO, Rocco and the hitting coach either must change the hitting approach or be replaced!

I've heard Rocco say that the strikeouts are an issue and there's no way around that.

26 games this year scoring less than two runs. 6 games in a row under two runs, 8 out of the last 9 games under two runs. 9 out of the last 11 games.

Michael A. Taylor is third on the team in Home Runs.

Currently 31 of our 80 home runs are either hurt or in the minors so that power thing can be taken away pretty quickly. 

If Rocco said he can live with all the K's due to hitting with power... I want to see it. 

[terrydactyls]

15 hours ago, PDX Twin said:

My favorite (English) football team began the season with a ton of talent. They won only 2 of their first 11 games of the just-completed season and looked exactly like the Twins look now: no energy, no intelligence, no desire to win. Just putting in the time and cashing the paychecks. They were in 17th place, just out of the relegation zone.

They fired the manager and hired someone who was tactically and motivationally brilliant. Despite having their share of injuries and only one new player added at the equivalent of the trade deadline, the team rose ten places over the remaining 27 games to finish 7th and qualify for a European competition for the first time in 12 years.

Leadership DOES make a difference, at least sometimes. 

But did this new leader believe in analytics?  If not, the Twins wouldn't hire him (or her).

[rv78]

Offensively this team misses their leader. No it wasn't/isn't/neverwillbe Correa. It was Arraez. Without someone who can take a bunch of pitches, get on base, and rile up his teammates, this lineup is offensive.

[TwinsDr2021]

15 hours ago, LastOnePicked said:

So, become great. Rebuild. Start now. Follow Baltimore or Tampa as an example. Let the youngsters play, Take your lumps with a new staff. Yup, it's 3-6 years of losing records. If we had started in 2021, we'd only be a few years from coming out the other end.

I want nothing to do with this FO and manager in a rebuild. NOTHING! If they clean house and hire new people I can accept that (won't like it but can accept it)

IMO if this FO want to save it jobs it fires Rocco, sooner than later.

[terrydactyls]

14 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

Wait or do what? I'm not sure the alternative for fans.....

"I'm not sure the alternative for fans....".  Is what?

[terrydactyls]

13 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

anti intellectualism....classic.

Please explain your comment.

[terrydactyls]

13 hours ago, Joey Self said:

If only this team had someone on it that could hit for average and get on base well above the MLB average.

Oh, never mind, they'd just trade him...

JcS

Even if the Twins had a .400 hitter, the next three guys would just strike out and leave him stranded.

[wabene]

10 hours ago, DocBauer said:

Jeffers needs more playing time based on production and ironically, time with Popkins. 

The FO needs to just replace Kepler with opportunity for Wallner and Larnach and let it ride. They should have done this before the season started, even with lower defensive value.

I LOVE Polanco. But if he's really and truly starting to  break down, it's time to make a change. 

When your offense is bad at historical levels, you just have to try something different, especially when you have top prospects with projectible ability.

Coaches can only coach so much. And  any hitting coach can only do so much. And Popkins might, or might not be a good hitting coach. But at some point it's also on the talent of the players you have. And I think it's TIME to trust in the young talent on hand and let things play out.

What else do the Twins do, trade MORE prospect talent for a bat or two that might not  be as good as what's on hand?

Its time to trust the "kids" 

This is where I'm at. ^^^

Here is Max per the Strib, "There are things we have to work on. There are things we have to be more patient with," said Max Kepler, whose 0-for-2 leaves him with a .189 average for the season. "I think we're going to hit it on the nose in the near future. At least, I really hope we do, because we work [hard] off the field. But it's baseball."

But it's baseball? No Max it's bad baseball. This team needs a jolt. As much as it pains me to say, DFA Max today.

Bring up Wallner. 

Jeffers is going well, keep playing him. 

Buxton and Polo always come off the IL hot because when they are feeling good their considerable skills shine through. If they aren't 100%, react quickly and IL them. 

Polo is dinged again. IL him and bring up the Frenchman. 

If Miranda gets hot, find a place for the hot bat.

I've watched this team through thick and thin. Even last September I would watch when Ryan or Ober pitched. Let's react more quickly, play the hot bats, get the young guys up. Maybe then I will keep watching. 

 

[DJL44]

41 minutes ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

IMO if this FO want to save it jobs it fires Rocco, sooner than later.

You want interim manager Jayce Tingler for the rest of the season? That's the most likely scenario.