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Rumor: Twins, Marlins 'kicking the tires' on a potential Lopez trade?


Squirrel
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Thus far uncorroborated, reports have begun swirling the Twins and Marlins may be in talks to make a trade with the core pieces being established MLB players: starting pitcher Pablo Lopez and Luis Arraez (certainly with more coming from the Twins than just the batting champion).

Lopez would be a step up from anyone currently in the Twins organization and is under team control for two more seasons. The 26-year-old right-hander had a solid season in 2022 but was an elite arm as recently as 2021.

What would you give up to acquire Lopez?


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The reports are that the Marlins wanted Gleyber Torres and Oswald Peraza for Lopez and Rojas at the deadline. Polanco and Lewis probably the most comparable package as an established, but not superstar, vet and an MLB ready, big time SS prospect.

I'd guess the price would come down a little now as he's closer to free agency. Would they do Polanco for Lopez? Would the Twins? Polanco is older, but has 1 more year of control than Lopez. It'd be an interesting trade.

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12 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

The reports are that the Marlins wanted Gleyber Torres and Oswald Peraza for Lopez and Rojas at the deadline. Polanco and Lewis probably the most comparable package as an established, but not superstar, vet and an MLB ready, big time SS prospect.

I'd guess the price would come down a little now as he's closer to free agency. Would they do Polanco for Lopez? Would the Twins? Polanco is older, but has 1 more year of control than Lopez. It'd be an interesting trade.

I'd trade Polanco for him, that would be a steal for the Twins (given their position players and minor league players). So I doubt Miami would. 

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3 minutes ago, Squirrel said:

This isn't news. This is a rumor. Hence the title ... 'RUMOR'. Discuss or not. 

Ted reported it as fact in the tweet this article is based on. That’s what I’m referring to. I’m not saying it wasn’t worthy of being posted here or that you’re calling it fact. 

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31 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

The reports are that the Marlins wanted Gleyber Torres and Oswald Peraza for Lopez and Rojas at the deadline. Polanco and Lewis probably the most comparable package as an established, but not superstar, vet and an MLB ready, big time SS prospect.

I'd guess the price would come down a little now as he's closer to free agency. Would they do Polanco for Lopez? Would the Twins? Polanco is older, but has 1 more year of control than Lopez. It'd be an interesting trade.

I could see doing that for Polanco and some C level prospects in the 20 range in the system if needed.  He is controlled for three more years and he had an 800 OPS in 2021 so both players had good 2021's and fell somewhat in 2022.  Not sure Miami wants to take on Polanco's Salary so Twins might need to kick in some money.  Still if they could build a package around Polanco I would be all for it.

I would hate to trade Arraez for two years of Lopez because Arraez is fairly cheap and young and I think he might sign a reasonable extension.  Still I can see why the Twins might do it as they have Lewis, Martin and Jullian pretty much ready to go next year with Lee not far behind.  They also have Gordon who can be plugged in there.  So they have a lot of second base depth and they need more and better pitching\pitchers.  Still that only buys them two years and if he continues to be good there is no way they will sign him in Free Agency.  If the Fish want Arraez the AL batting champ and controlled at a reasonable rate for three years. IMO they would need to kick in something on their end if they want the top bat in the AL.

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Call me a cynic, but ... do we really need starting pitching? I'd rather have Arreaz. First show me that the new trainer isn't going to magically  make pitchers break their arms within their first five games as a Twin.  For a lot of the season, when the pitchers were great, the offence wouldn't score. Twins have some decent starters already, but they need to give them run support. And innings. 

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46 minutes ago, raindog said:

Ted reported it as fact in the tweet this article is based on. That’s what I’m referring to. I’m not saying it wasn’t worthy of being posted here or that you’re calling it fact. 

We should all be skeptical of new sources and I was *very* skeptical of this report but I'm hearing rumblings that Ted might be on the right track here, if not exactly correct on the names and pieces.

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1 hour ago, Squirrel said:

Thus far uncorroborated, reports have begun swirling the Twins and Marlins may be in talks to make a trade with the core pieces being established MLB players: starting pitcher Pablo Lopez and Luis Arraez (certainly with more coming from the Twins than just the batting champion).

Lopez would be a step up from anyone currently in the Twins organization and is under team control for two more seasons. The 26-year-old right-hander had a solid season in 2022 but was an elite arm as recently as 2021.

What would you give up to acquire Lopez?

 

View full rumor

 

Elite? Trading a guy that can hit and doesn't K much for a good starting pitcher? Meh. 

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A batting champion & established hitter (granted, not a power hitter) for a guy who'll pitch every 5th day.

Our offense wasn't dynamic last year with Arraez.   How will we score enough runs without him to give Lopez a chance to win every 5th day?

A good starting pitcher gets 30 starts (or so), and will pitch well enough in 20 of those starts (or so) to give you a chance to win.    Of those 20, there will likely be a few games where the offense doesn't pull its weight & a well pitched game winds up a loss regardless.  

Let's say we win a few of the game where he doesn't pitch well, to offset the games we lose despite how well he pitched.  

We're still talking about less than 20% of the season.

Granted, the equation's different if we get to the post season.  There, having a true #1 leading the pack can be a big deal - but you have to get there first.

We need offense as much as starting pitching, IMO.

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I would be okay with trading Arraez. Of course, we would have to add something or 2 to make it worthwhile for the Marlins. But right now, Arraez is worth the most he has ever been. He is the odd man out on positions for our team. He isn't much for fielding, hits for average, lacks power, and is one IL stint from being a wasted roster spot. He has spent time every year he has been on the ML roster, or at the very least, been injured enough to where he shouldn't be out there playing. 

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25 minutes ago, BD57 said:

A batting champion & established hitter (granted, not a power hitter) for a guy who'll pitch every 5th day.

Pablo Lopez faced 736 batters in 2022.  On the batting side, Marcus Semien led the majors with 724 plate appearances.

(There are 28 pitchers who faced more batters than Lopez did. A teammate of his faced 886.)

Starting pitchers have the potential to have as much or more impact during any season than batters do. The good ones are incredibly valuable and you can't trade for them easily. This every fifth day argument doesn't hold water.

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1 hour ago, Muppet said:

Call me a cynic, but ... do we really need starting pitching? I'd rather have Arreaz. First show me that the new trainer isn't going to magically  make pitchers break their arms within their first five games as a Twin.  For a lot of the season, when the pitchers were great, the offence wouldn't score. Twins have some decent starters already, but they need to give them run support. And innings. 

Agreed.  I made the trip to Cleveland to see the Twins play 5 games in 4 days, and while I understand the fallacy of a small sample size, I got to see Varland, Ober, Winder and Ryan start the first four games.  (Sonny Gray had the fifth and left after two innings.)  With Mahle, Gray, Maeda and Ryan as the core, and those three other rookies plus Richardson, Sands and others, I think we have enough starters to resist trading one of the best hitters on the team.  

Now if it were Arraez for a catcher, I'd not be thrilled, but I'd understand it.  

JcS

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I wouldn't trade Arraez for Pablo. He's not a frontline starter, only had one fully healthy season, doesn't have dominant stuff and was bad from June until the end of the year. In fact, it was more like mid-May (4.60 ERA after his May 18th start).

If this rumor is true, come on Falvey. Be better.

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