Jump to content
Twins Daily
  • Create Account

Previewing 3 Club Options Facing the Twins


Twins Daily Contributor

Early in the offseason, the Twins will have three contract decisions to make with some of the team’s prominent players. So, which will be picked up, and who are likely to become free agents?

 

Club options are one of the first decisions teams have to make in the offseason, and each team invariably has some easy and tough choices. The Twins have three contract options to consider, and they aren’t all straightforward decisions. 

Miguel Sano, 1B/DH
Contract Option: $14 million, $3 million buyout

Sano has been a member of the Twins organization since he was a teenager, but his time with the Twins is likely coming to an end. During his eight big-league seasons, Sano posted an OPS+ of 105 or higher in six campaigns. According to FanGraphs, he has been worth more than $14 million in three different seasons, but the 2019 campaign was his last season at that level or above. Over the last three seasons, he has combined to be worth $4.5 million, so it is a no-brainer for the Twins to pay the $3 million buyout. Minnesota can use a variety of younger and cheaper options at first base, which makes Sano even more expendable.
Twins Likely Choice: Pay the Buyout

Sonny Gray, SP
Contract Option: $13.1 million, no buyout

While Sano’s option is easy to decline, the Twins will have an easy decision to exercise Gray’s $13.1 million option if he continues to be healthy. In his first season in Minnesota, Gray has a 115 OPS+ with a 79 to 26 strikeout to walk ratio in 83 2/3 innings. The Twins have plenty of options for the 2023 rotation, but Gray should be penciled into the top of the team’s rotation. Minnesota was willing to part with Chase Petty, the team’s 2021 first-round pick because Gray came with multiple years of team control. Besides Gray’s option decision, it will be interesting to see if the team decides to engage him in extension talks to keep him in Minnesota beyond 2023.  
Twins Likely Choice: Exercise Option

Dylan Bundy, SP
Contract Option: $11 million, $1 million buyout

Bundy’s contract option is the toughest of the three because of his improved performance in recent weeks. Minnesota was hoping Bundy would bounce back after a poor 2021 season, but that hasn’t been the case. His ERA+ is below average, and his fastball velocity is in the 7th percentile. Minnesota’s rotation is also reasonably complete, with Gray, Tyler Mahle, Joe Ryan, and Kenta Maeda scheduled to be the team’s top four starters. Other pitchers like Josh Winder, Bailey Ober, and Chris Paddack will return from injury, making Bundy less of a necessity. Bundy has improved in the season’s second half, but it seems unlikely for the team to pick up his option.
Twins Likely Choice: Pay the Buyout

What would your decision be on the team’s contract options? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. 

 


View full article

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Recommended Posts

Drop Sano seems obvious,  Keep Gray is also obvious, but Bundy is rightfully your big question mark.  For me the rest of the season determines Bundy.  Would you choose Bundy over Archer?  Are either of them BP arms?  Does Winder and Ober pitch well the rest of the season.  

It is an interesting post but for your big question it will be decided in the next two months.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Verified Member

I think the key is Maeda.  Until we know if he is sound again, Bundy would be an insurance policy.  And I seem to remember Paddock might not be ready for spring training, but later in the season.  Again, how will he come back?  And Archer appears suited better for long relief than starting, averaging almost exactly 4 innings a start.  For that matter, Winder and Ober have spent their share of time on the IL, and maybe this won't be the last time.  

If the decision were today, I would pick him up.  We may or may not be as deep as we think we are when it comes to health.  

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Verified Member

You can never have too much pitching.  Bundy is a close decision, much of it would depend on how to reallocate the money.  Probably would pay the buyout, but let's see how he pitches the rest of the year.  Youngsters may or may not be effective when they return, this would be an insurance policy.  Do not see any newbies banging down the door, so we would have to replace him, at what cost.  

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Verified Member

Agree with you and the above comments, Sano should be gone and Gray MUST be signed to an extension.  What you do with Bundy will depend on who is managing the club in 2023.  If the current staff returns, Bundy's option should be exercised and the team should go to a four man rotation with three or more long relievers pitching 2-3 innings after the starters are limited to 4-5 innings.  

If the Twins change on field management and use their starters like the rest of baseball, then bringing Bundy back is less desirable.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Verified Member
28 minutes ago, roger said:

the team should go to a four man rotation with three or more long relievers pitching 2-3 innings after the starters are limited to 4-5 innings.  

I am on board with this. If starters are only throwing 75-80 pitches there is no reason they need 4 full days rest between starts.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Good article, Cody.  With respect to Bundy, to be a devil's advocate, I am not convinced that the Twins will have an abundance of starters next year.  Given the number of injuries hitting all pitching staffs, teams need to have at least 8 or 9 starters. The Twins used at least 11 this year I believe. It looks like the rotation will be Mahle, Gray, Ryan and Maeda as you suggest, but after that it is not so certain.  Plus, we have yet to see Maeda pitch this year and Ryan has not looked sharp since coming back from Covid.  Since June 1 he has given up 12 home runs over roughly 52 innings. The league may be adjusting to him as they see him more.  Paddack is coming off TJ and will at best have an innings limitation. Ober has been injured as well.  Winder and Dobnak have significant injury histories.  Canterino is out all year. Smeltzer might qualify as a spot starter.  Balazovic does not appear ready.   Still, there is no way I would pay Bundy 11 million given his erratic history.  Having said that, I am still concerned about our pitching depth next year.  But, let's try to right the ship this year and worry about next year this offseason.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I would call it lazy tweeting by Nash to say the last 10 games without mentioning it is only 52 innings, but it is not it must have taken some work to figure it with just 10 starts, because if you do his last 11 his ERA is 4.18 (56 innings) or his last 9 (44 innings) it is 4.29.

But I say no to Sano and sad to see him go, as for Bundy is less than 5 innings a start and a ERA of 4.76 really cost 11 million? I say no on him as well.

Gray has been a pretty big disappoint for me as well, He is also averaging less than 5 innings a start and if you told me before the season he will have less Quality starts then Smeltzer, pitch in the 7th inning twice and only have 3 games with over 87 pitches and a max of 97 I would have called you a damn liar. Maybe we trade him this off season and re-coup on the Petty trade?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Chris Archer also has a mutual option for $10 million next season. I’m sure he’d love to get paid that much to “start” for 3-4 innings, but he’ll likely be out too. With minimal progression from the pitching prospects, we’ll be in the market for 2 or 3 starters again this winter. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

You have to keep Gray, but someone has to convince management to let him go deeper right from the start of the season. Sano is done here. Buy out Bundy and see if he will take a lot less $ otherwise let him go. I would try to give Sanchez a look up here before the end of the year. He has pitched well lately in St. Paul. Archer either has to pitch longer or moved to the pen. Otherwise, cut bait with him. Sign Leon though. He would be a good backup for Jeffers. IMHO if the Twins don't make the playoffs, its time for a change of managers!

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Sano has seen the last of his time as a twin.

Gray is still not a sure thing.

Bundy is a No.

This team will need to find at least one starter that is left handed. And that is not Smeltzer,it is a nice story but not major league starter. Also may need changes in FO and Management.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I know I am kind of old school but I really like how Bundy comes out and challenges hitters. I think given his results he could command 10M on the market.  That being said he is a 5th starter at best so if they went a different direction I would be OK with that too.  It will be interesting to see if SWR and Varland will look like legit MLB starting options for next year along with Winder and Ober and maybe Smeltzer and Paddack coming back it would seem they have sufficient depth without Bundy but like I said I could go either way given how volatile pitchers arms are.

Sano just never quite put things together with much consistency.  I still think his best days might be a head of him but his time in Minnesota is at an end.  Wouldn't want to pay 14M for the production he brings so he will get the buyout and certainly another chance with another team.

Gray is a keeper for next year hands down not much to argue there.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 hours ago, roger said:

Agree with you and the above comments, Sano should be gone and Gray MUST be signed to an extension.  What you do with Bundy will depend on who is managing the club in 2023.  If the current staff returns, Bundy's option should be exercised and the team should go to a four man rotation with three or more long relievers pitching 2-3 innings after the starters are limited to 4-5 innings.  

If the Twins change on field management and use their starters like the rest of baseball, then bringing Bundy back is less desirable.

The reason the starters are limited to 4-5 innings, is as much to do with limiting their workload for the year, as it is limiting their exposure to the opposing lineup. Going to a 4 man rotation increases workload on pitchers who haven’t pitched 150 innings before, or haven’t in several years. The market inefficiency on injured starters tends to reduce available capacity for innings pitched

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The option on Bundy should be declined. 

I'm not opposed to bringing him back, but I'd rather decline the option and sign him back for $5, which is what his caliber of pitcher gets.

Depending on the health of Maeda and Dobnak going into the offseason, we may need a fringe veteran 5th starter that we can cut if he fails. I just prefer more upside than Bundy. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 hours ago, Vanimal46 said:

Chris Archer also has a mutual option for $10 million next season. I’m sure he’d love to get paid that much to “start” for 3-4 innings, but he’ll likely be out too. With minimal progression from the pitching prospects, we’ll be in the market for 2 or 3 starters again this winter. 

Yes, I'd noticed he was missed.

Same net cost as Bundy, when you consider Bundy's buyout. Slightly better results for Archer, but in slightly fewer innings. Say what we will about the tendency toward short outings, but they each lead the team in starts, and each has more than Paddack, Ober and Winder combined.

I can't see them doing both, but I could see them doing one or the other if one finishes strong. Of course, if he finishes strong, Archer might take it out of their hands by declining his side of the option and trying his luck on the market.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, LewFordLives said:

I know this article is about team options, but the Twins will also have to make a tender decision on Gio Urshela. He could get $8-$9 million if they take him through the arbitration process. I noticed Miranda has been getting more playing time at third. 

If this is true, it is a more difficult decision as to whether to tender arbitration to Gio. I, for one, would want to keep Gio. I have read he is a good clubhouse influence and he is hitting well and can hit to the opposite field and can play an adequate 3B. Keep in mid, if C-4 does not stay, and if Lewis does not immediately hit the ground running (pun intended) or needs periodic rest periods, then Gio could play SS too.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 hours ago, IndianaTwin said:

Yes, I'd noticed he was missed.

Same net cost as Bundy, when you consider Bundy's buyout. Slightly better results for Archer, but in slightly fewer innings. Say what we will about the tendency toward short outings, but they each lead the team in starts, and each has more than Paddack, Ober and Winder combined.

I can't see them doing both, but I could see them doing one or the other if one finishes strong. Of course, if he finishes strong, Archer might take it out of their hands by declining his side of the option and trying his luck on the market.

Would you pay Archer $10 million to be a long reliever (2-3 innings)? I believe I would.  The Twins need a good long reliever. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...
 Share

The Twins Daily Caretaker Fund
The Twins Daily Caretaker Fund

You all care about this site. The next step is caring for it. We’re asking you to caretake this site so it can remain the premiere Twins community on the internet.

×
×
  • Create New...