Front Page: Hayes: Twins To Sign Rich Hill & Homer Bailey

[nicksaviking]

 

I missed that Hill had surgery after the season. I saw that he had come back and pitched in September, and thought he'd be good to go. That leaves Opening Day still a mess for the rotation, even adding Bailey as a stopgap. I see the point for Bailey, I really don't for Hill.

 

I had been asking for Hill early on in free agency before I got egg on my face after someone pointed out he was going to start the year off on the IL. But he's been fantastic when on the mound, so if he comes back healthy I think there are few pitchers who'd be available in a mid season trade that could provide the the boost that Hill is capable of.

 

Assuming health, (foolish mortal!) Hill is already my pick for Game 1 of the playoffs. He's old and not a sexy name, but he's got the track record and pitch-ability that matches up best against whomever the Yankees and Astros will be throwing out there. 

[Boom Boom]

Only 35 starting pitchers posted a higher WAR in 2019 than Bailey's 2.9. He was ahead of Jon Lester, Robbie Ray, Yu Darvish, Sandy Alcantara, and Wade Miley among others. Madison Bumgarner posted a 3.2 in comparison.

 

Whether you want to perceive it or not, Homer Bailey is an 'impact' pitching signing and a really great move by this front office.

 

 

I appreciate the positive take, but the market says otherwise.

 

There's a reason Bailey got a one-year deal with the Twins.

[USAFChief]

Only 35 starting pitchers posted a higher WAR in 2019 than Bailey's 2.9. He was ahead of Jon Lester, Robbie Ray, Yu Darvish, Sandy Alcantara, and Wade Miley among others. Madison Bumgarner posted a 3.2 in comparison.

 

Whether you want to perceive it or not, Homer Bailey is an 'impact' pitching signing and a really great move by this front office.

 

 

which WAR?

 

This is a pretty great example of the complete, utter ridiculousness of WAR...both versions BTW.

 

Homer Bailey had a 4.57 ERA last season, and an ERA over 6 in each of the previous three.

 

He is not one of the 36 best starters in MLB.

 

A "metric" that puts him there is worse than worthless.

[twins_89]

To date, the Twins off-season has replaced Castro, Dyson, Gibson, and Perez with Avila, Clippard, Bailey, and Hill while still having a corner infield hole. It seems that at best we're basically the same as last season with a decent chance of being worse. Coming off a 101 win season and with a huge amount of money to spend this seems like a clear failure for the front office.

[John Bonnes]

I guess something had to be done to fill these spots, and it's nice they left themselves some room for another big signing or a couple of spring-training-value buys, but unless we see the big signing, the is a failed offseason. It certainly doesn't help them significantly in postseason matchups. 

 

For like the third offseason in a row, I like almost all their moves, yet find myself frustrated by them not addressing their biggest needs. 

[nicksaviking]

 

Already reading how great this splitter is and how it is revitalized his career.

 

Just like Blake Parker for the Twins in 2019...

 

If you're talking about Bailey, his K% jumped 6% last year. That's got me interested. I never liked him when he couldn't miss bats, but now that he can he has my attention.

[lukeduke1980]

Getting Hill back close to the deadline 'will be like making a trade'.

[Vanimal46]

Only 35 starting pitchers posted a higher WAR in 2019 than Bailey's 2.9. He was ahead of Jon Lester, Robbie Ray, Yu Darvish, Sandy Alcantara, and Wade Miley among others. Madison Bumgarner posted a 3.2 in comparison.

 

Whether you want to perceive it or not, Homer Bailey is an 'impact' pitching signing and a really great move by this front office.

 

 

Prior to last year, the last season where he had above 1.0 fWAR, or registering a positive bWAR was 2014. You’re willing to bet a 33 year old is on the up and up now?

[Darius]

....and when they finally do something, it’s basically the only two guys I didn’t want.

 

Yuck.

[MMMordabito]

 

I guess something had to be done to fill these spots, and it's nice they left themselves some room for another big signing or a couple of spring-training-value buys, but unless we see the big signing, the is a failed offseason. It certainly doesn't help them significantly in postseason matchups. 

 

For like the third offseason in a row, I like almost all their moves, yet find myself frustrated by them not addressing their biggest needs. 

 

I would hope that these signing don't have any effect on the Donaldson pursuit.  Winning 10-7 is still winning.  It isn't sustainable, but it gives them until the deadline at least.

[GCTF]

I wonder if this Homer Nixon is any relation.

[tony&rodney]

The development of Graterol, Balazovic, and Duran will be watched closely as will the further experiences of Rooker, Larnach, Kirilloff, and Lewis. The Twins are heavily invested in these seven players and a few more and the Twins first three months will determine whether trades or promotions are needed for August onward.

Hopefully, Bailey can be solid from day one. Hopefully, two of Dobnak, Thorpe, and someone else provide competitive outings until Pineda and Hill are available.

Signing Josh Donaldson just became even more important than before because a strong Twins team offensively will provide a boost to the hopes previously mentioned.

[jorgenswest]

Already reading how great this splitter is and how it is revitalized his career.

 

Just like Blake Parker for the Twins in 2019...

Need help here...

 

I can find articles from fangraphs and Athletic referencing the effectiveness of Homer Bailey’s splitter. I can’t find the same for Parker in 2018. I will acknowledge it happens to be his best pitch as it is Bailey.

 

Bailey is coming off a 2.9 WAR season that ended strong. Parker 0.1 in 2018 with a significant drop from 2017.

 

I guess I may have hoped that the Twins could take Parker’s splutter and revitalized his career where Bailey took that step and needs to continue.

[Thrylos]

Still about a month and a half until pitchers and catchers report, but so far it seems that they kept the status quo and replaced Gibson with Bailey and Perez with Hill, which is an improvement, albeit a small one.  I guess they are betting on natural improvement by the young core, both pitching and position players, Pineda yet another year removed from TJ, Arraez over Schoop for a full season, Buxton healthy, etc...

 

Can argue that, the liveliness of the baseball being a wild card, this 2020 team should likely be better than the 2019 team, based on that, and should be the favorite to win the Central.

 

That said, the bar should be at being relevant in the postseason, something that has not happened since 1991.  They need an ace and at least a lights out bullpen arm to get there, and I hope that they go after them with trades.

[darin617]

They should have got Glen Taylor to negotiate the contract for Rich Hill. Slip him some cash under the table and sign him in Spring Training and then put him right on the 60 day IL so they could bring in another body for the 40 man roster.

[jud6312]

 

Getting Hill back close to the deadline 'will be like making a trade'.

 

I'm sure they've already got this speech in the can for the press conference.

[SpicyGarvSauce]

 

Need help here...

I can find articles from fangraphs and Athletic referencing the effectiveness of Homer Bailey’s splitter. I can’t find the same for Parker in 2018. I will acknowledge it happens to be his best pitch as it is Bailey.

Bailey is coming off a 2.9 WAR season that ended strong. Parker 0.1 in 2018 with a significant drop from 2017.

When the Twins signed Parker, all we heard (from the talking heads, on TV, etc.) was how effective and awesome Parker's splitter was...in fact, people went so far as to say his splitter would drastically improve once the weather got warmer and he was able to get a better feel for it.

 

Your typical hyperbole, talking jargon that doesn't amount to much of any substance.

[Boom Boom]

I seriously doubt there will be a trade coming. But if there is, it makes sense to do the signing first. They might not be so eager to sign if we just traded for Price/Gray/Archer etc. Especially Hill.

I sincerely hope that the Twins weren't waiting to swing a trade because it might have affected their chances of signing Rich Hill.

[darin617]

 

OK. Get your frustration and sarcasm out of the way today. Tomorrow: Why Bailey is actually better than MadBaum and Hill is better than Kuechel!

 

They are not signed to 4 year deals so the Twins did sign the better pair.

[jud6312]

 

Prior to last year, the last season where he had above 1.0 fWAR, or registering a positive bWAR was 2014. You’re willing to bet a 33 year old is on the up and up now?

 

Lots of people hit their physical peaks in their mid to late-30s. Just look at Barry Bonds.

[SF Twins Fan]

How disappointing.... There was so much promise going into the offseason coming off a season with 101 wins and roughly $70 million to spend on impact players. Instead we get a bunch of aging rejects that wouldn't sniff the post season on any team that is legit about contending for the World Series. Please don't @ me with Bailey could still be solid or Hill has been very good. He's 39 and coming off a significant injury and won't potentially start until mid way through the season. I don't believe for a second Avila is better than Castro either. I'll give them Clippard as a solid add to the bullpen but the rest....yuck.

[nicksaviking]

 

Prior to last year, the last season where he had above 1.0 fWAR, or registering a positive bWAR was 2014. You’re willing to bet a 33 year old is on the up and up now?

 

It's a pretty cheap bet. After last season I think we saw the Twins prefer the splitter to the two seamer, which Bailey himself shifted more heavily towards last year. I wouldn't be surprised if the club saw a like-minded approach in Bailey and thought last year's results may be more indicative of his numbers going forward than whatever stagnant non-sense was occurring back in Cincinnati.

[USAFChief]

They are not signed to 4 year deals so the Twins did sign the better pair.

I thought the idea was to have the better players. The goal is spend less?

[USAFChief]

It's a pretty cheap bet. After last season I think we saw the Twins prefer the splitter to the two seamer, which Bailey himself shifted more heavily towards last year. I wouldn't be surprised if the club saw a like-minded approach in Bailey and thought last year's results may be more indicative of his numbers going forward than whatever stagnant non-sense was occurring back in Cincinnati.

let's hope it wasnt a short sample size mirage. Let's hope Wes Johnson's miracle work is permanent, like we all saw with Martin Perez and his cutter.

[Vanimal46]

It's a pretty cheap bet. After last season I think we saw the Twins prefer the splitter to the two seamer, which Bailey himself shifted more heavily towards last year. I wouldn't be surprised if the club saw a like-minded approach in Bailey and thought last year's results may be more indicative of his numbers going forward than whatever stagnant non-sense was occurring back in Cincinnati.

Who else on the Twins staff threw a splitter besides Blake Parker, who was also DFA’d? Any other success stories with pitchers who prefer that pitch?

 

P.S. Bailey is projected for a 5.15 ERA on B-Ref and 4.7 ERA on Steamer. Cheap or not, I don’t like this bet.

[adorduan]

My definition of an "impact pitcher" and the FO''s definition differ. A LOT.......

[Harrison Greeley III]

 

I appreciate the positive take, but the market says otherwise.

There's a reason Bailey got a one-year deal with the Twins.

There have been books written on how good front offices need to find value where the market isn't seeing it. One was about Billy Beane, the guy who traded for Bailey last summer. 

 

which WAR?

This is a pretty great example of the complete, utter ridiculousness of WAR...both versions BTW.

Homer Bailey had a 4.57 ERA last season, and an ERA over 6 in each of the previous three.

He is not one of the 36 best starters in MLB.

A "metric" that puts him there is worse than worthless.

 

 

Fangraphs.

I'm not going to make any prediction that he will once again be the 36th best starting pitcher or better. I can't speculate on the future. I'm just saying smarter people and systems than me said he was #36 last year. And between his pitch values, and numbers re: K/BB/HR allowed it's not hard to follow why. At $7m for a one year deal, that's really great.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Only 35 starting pitchers posted a higher WAR in 2019 than Bailey's 2.9. He was ahead of Jon Lester, Robbie Ray, Yu Darvish, Sandy Alcantara, and Wade Miley among others. Madison Bumgarner posted a 3.2 in comparison.

Whether you want to perceive it or not, Homer Bailey is an 'impact' pitching signing and a really great move by this front office.

2.9 fWAR, based on his FIP. Bailey's actual runs allowed only resulted in a 1.8 bWAR for 2019 -- 75 starting pitchers posted higher bWAR marks in 2019.

 

Sometimes FIP looks like a good bet, but Bailey's career seems to be a story of FIP outperforming his ERA. Fangraphs gives him 16.4 fWAR for his career, but only 10.0 RA9-WAR, and as mentioned, bWAR likes him even less (5.9). Reminds me of Ricky Nolasco, who had 20.7 career fWAR when we signed him, but only 11.2 bWAR. And of course Nolasco was 2.5 years younger and without the arm injuries...

 

Bailey's not necessarily a bad pitcher, but given his age and track record, he seems firmly in the average / back of the rotation camp. Is that what the Twins FO had in mind when they brought up the term "impact pitching" this offseason?

[MMMordabito]

 

let's hope it wasnt a short sample size mirage. Let's hope Wes Johnson's miracle work is permanent, like we all saw with Martin Perez and his cutter.

 

If the Twins are so lucky as to land Donaldson, the real miracle will be the empath Baldelli ego-whispering JD and Dick Mountain.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Somehow I’m more irritated that the Twins got both Bailey and Hill than if they had signed only one of them.