The Twins Boldly Bolstered Their Bullpen. Can the Rotation and Lineup Do Their Parts?

[Nick Nelson]

Image courtesy of Jesse Johnson-Imagn Images

Generally speaking, it's an exaggeration to say their bullpen has been the Twins' biggest strength. The unit has been quite bad overall, which was predictable after they gutted the relief corps at last year's deadline and did little to address it in the offseason. 

Except, of late, the bullpen actually has been this team's biggest strength. Since the start of July, Twins relievers rank 10th among MLB teams in fWAR, fifth in ERA, and ninth in Win Probability Added. Their starters, meanwhile, are 21st in WAR, 23rd in ERA, 21st in WPA. Their offense: 21st in WAR, 19th in wOBA, 6th in WPA. (That knack for timely hitting keeps on propping them up.)

Prior to the additions of Jeff Hoffman and A.J. Minter, I certainly wouldn't say I felt confident in the Twins bullpen to keep performing at the level it did in July ... but, I might have felt more confident in that unit's outlook than the rotation or the lineup. 

Let's start with the starters. Here you've got:

• Joe Ryan openly battling arm fatigue as he lapses into familiar second-half struggles.
• Bailey Ober averaging 87 MPH with his fastball.
• Connor Prielipp already venturing into unprecedented workload territory as he nears 100 innings.
• Dean Kremer bringing in a 6.50 ERA and hoping to gravitate back toward his career norm of mediocrity.
• Zebby Matthews optioned to the minors (for now) with a 5.22 ERA this year and 5.64 for this career.
• Pablo López, Mick Abel and David Festa all out for the season.

In the rotation mix, only Taj Bradley is inspiring a ton of confidence from both a durability and performance standpoint. And even then, there is a turbulent track record to contend with. The admirable depth boasted by Minnesota's starting corps entering this season has been whittled away, to the point where Kremer comes aboard as a credible upgrade. I wonder if we'll look back in two months lamenting the lack of one more front-end starter.

Offensively, the Twins offer a little more reason for optimism. They continue to pace all American League teams in runs scored, although as mentioned earlier, it's a bit of a deceiving indicator. Twins hitters lead all of baseball in OPS with runners in scoring position. All their scoring up to this point is banked, but a big gap between overall performance and RISP is a glaring regression flag. Sure enough, we've already been seeing this play out in recent weeks, with the lineup drifting into long stretches of silence. The Twins rank 21st in runs scored since the break, identical to their hitting WAR rank for the season.

Although the front office didn't make any additions to the position player group, they also didn't make any subtractions, which could be viewed in some ways as an investment in the offense. Trevor Larnach and Ryan Jeffers have been the club's two best hitters (sans the injured Byron Buxton), and both were circumstantial trade candidates. Minnesota held onto both — perhaps to the detriment of their long-term benefit — in order to at least hold steady in terms of bats. 

Ultimately, the Twins are asking their rotation and lineup to solve their own problems. There will be no external cavalry riding in to stabilize a thinning starting staff or reignite an offense that's cooled after carrying the club for much of the season. While that may feel unsatisfying in the moment, it's a defensible approach. 

Front offices can't afford to chase the last three weeks. The bullpen that looks like a strength today looked like one of baseball's biggest liabilities a month ago, and few areas of the sport are more volatile than relief pitching. Jeremy Zoll and company weren't buying July's results so much as insulating themselves against what history says is likely to come next. 

If those additions prove necessary, they'll look prescient. The bigger question is whether the starters and hitters can rediscover their form without the same kind of reinforcement.

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[Coach Wheels]

The front office spent some money and addressed the obvious weakness. I'm not going to spend time patting anyome on the back or re-hashing what happened 12 months ago, this team is in the mix and Ryan, Bradley, and Ober will need to be adults in the rotation. Jeffers, Larnach, and Lewis will need to be great offensively for this team to make the playoffs. This is still an uphill walk, but we're moving forward.

[DJL44]

It is a lot easier to buy a reliever than to find a meaningful upgrade on offense. Arraez might have been their only option.

[nclahammer]

The offense for the Minnesota Twins has been exceeding expectations for the first four months of the season and I don't think it's a trend that can continue for the entire season.  I fear the trading deadline hype/moves by the Twins will be for naught and we'll get little to nothing for the likes of Ryan Jeffers when he hits free agency.  

[rv78]

Doesn't really matter. There's only 1 team in MLB now and that's the Dodgers. If it isn't addressed and corrected at the CBA next year, we can all hold on to the dream of being the World Series Loser.

[JD-TWINS]

After Kremer, everyone needed to temper the expectations for the deadline. No May - Mize - Ray ……. needed a jolt in the Rotation. To me, Ryan is the biggest question mark. Ober will be Ober and will have in terrible outing every 4-5 starts…….. Bradley will be generally, very good ……… Prielipp will get protected with Rojas & ultimately Matthews coming back……. Kremer is a wildcard of potential/disaster. Joe might need to be on IL by August 15th???

Your point about deadline actions “being defendable” is how I felt over the moves.

“They are spending…….” is what fanbase is supposed to take away. W/o any rotation help nor offensive help (one or the other) I think they acquired enough to be a couple games above .500. Basically, a maintenance set of moves …….. PEN should be fine to good (relative to any PEN) but the offense, particularly with a non-existent Buxton, is not nearly consistent enough to do much for their record improvement.

Buxton had 1 HR June 24th and none since - 3 RBI since June 26th. That’s a red flag to the FO & Ownership, I would think!

[chinmusic]

For all I know, Dean Kremer will be a complete washout. But he 's a starting pitcher, and I believe that the move was better than no move at all. Time will tell.

[NYCTK]

The 2026 Twins show why no one should freak out about the state of the bullpen in March, and why the massive sell-off last trade deadline was the right decision, even if we'd like a mulligan on the Varland trade specifically.

Without expending much capital, Hill and change, the Twins have completely overhauled their bullpen. 4 of their top 6 arms added mid-season. 

Is it great? Nah, but they advanced from crap to adequate. Props to the front office for that. 

 

[TCanWins]

"Dean Kremer bringing in a 6.50 ERA and hoping to gravitate back toward his career norm of mediocrity" - ouch!

I tend to agree though. I'd love to see the bats back at their best, perhaps bring up some like Wallner who are having a crack at AAA and see if it translates.

[TCanWins]

7 minutes ago, rv78 said:

Doesn't really matter. There's only 1 team in MLB now and that's the Dodgers. If it isn't addressed and corrected at the CBA next year, we can all hold on to the dream of being the World Series Loser.

I disagree in part. The Dodgers just got swept by the Red Sox. They're not invincible. 

But I do agree there needs to be something done to address the salary disparity.

[NYCTK]

6 minutes ago, rv78 said:

Doesn't really matter. There's only 1 team in MLB now and that's the Dodgers. If it isn't addressed and corrected at the CBA next year, we can all hold on to the dream of being the World Series Loser.

Are you willing to support the owners lockout and forfeit a full year of MLB so that the owners can get their salary cap? 

[TNtwins85]

If the last few weeks are any indicator this bullpen is gonna be relied upon to simply keep them in the game long enough for their patented 7th-9th inning comebacks. Somebody in that hitting group is gonna have to get hot these last 2 months to win. Maybe that guy is Buxton. Maybe it’s someone unexpected. Time to step up.

[bean5302]

In a nutshell? No sure thing as the Twins are under .500 to start with, and the Twins made valuable, but few actual additions. Other teams improved as well like the Guardians who generally grade out as an A vs. the Twins' C.

The rotation ranked worse than our bullpen, technically, but I think the rotation is adequate for the regular season if everything else was good, but Minnesota needs Connor Prielipp to take a step forward now because he has to whip himself into a playoff caliber starter in the next 2 months. Sorry, zero faith in Ober being able to stick in the rotation. 
Joe Ryan II (the second half)
Taj Bradley
Connor Prielipp
Dean Kremer
Bailey Ober

C - Jeffers
1B - Lewis
2B - Clemens
SS - Kreidler
3B - Lee
LF - Larnach
CF - Keaschall
RF - Wallner
DH - Bell
BC - Caratini
UO - Roden
UI - Gray
Util - Jackson

There were clear areas the Twins could have improved and solidified not only the regular season, but the post season, and the Twins didn't do that. 

[Kenny Powers]

I just don't know.  On one hand, I applaud the moves as rewarding a scrappy team that had every reason to quit - but didn't.

But on the other hand, I don't think these moves moved the needle enough to make any sort of impactful difference.  I was hoping for a bigger splash and moving out some of the dead weight on the 40 man to make room for top prospects and/or vet upgrades. 

I do feel they are better now than before (for this season).  But how much better?  I'm having a tough time getting excited about consistently seeing Josh Bell in the middle of the line up.

[tony&rodney]

There should be little disagreement that the Twins entered the season with a shaky bullpen. However, the results of the past month seems more in tune with the arms currently rostered and one big change. The Twins entered 2026 with a pretty weak set of gloves. Over time a number of moves have been made and the current alignment is more capable of turning batted balls expected to be outs into outs. The fly balls, the line drives, the ground balls that were hits early in the year are more often outs now. One must also acknowledge that the current gloves remain merely average if not slightly below average. This improvement has made a drastic difference to the pitchers. There are still glaring holes. The outfield without Buxton is weak. Keaschall has used his speed to get to some fly balls that would not be caught by Roden or Martin but he is slow to react and on a steep learning curve. It would be better if Luke were in a corner or at DH. The guy who has hurt the Twins lately in the outfield is Trevor Larnach. He hustles and hits the cutoff, which is a plus as compared to others. However, the ball has been punishing him lately as seen from his inability to catch a ball that scored two runs against Bradley's ERA the other day. Larnach is a good bat and is doing his best to be a good ballplayer. Talent with a glove can be improved but improvement sometimes merely reaches a below average fielding level. Larnach should probably be a DH too. Martin seemed like he was improving in left field but is not as comfortable in right field. Roden is not a good outfielder but he does not embarrass himself either. Ryan Kreidler is the best outfielder on the team but is desperately needed at shortstop. This season has shown how important defense is for pitchers.

The success of the remainder of the 2026 campaign will rest primarily with how effectively the starters pitch combined with whether the bats can put up a better showing in the final two months. Lewis looks more stable in his legs right now. Can he improve? Ultimately it seems like the Twins will need two players, not currently rostered, to make successful debuts. Kaelen Culpepper and Walker Jenkins are not ready right now but I'm expecting that they will be up in two weeks. Hopefully those two strengthen the glove side of the coin and make positive improvements to the offense as well. There are a ton of questions surrounding the Twins. These next 49 games should be interesting and will, hopefully, be good viewing.

[laloesch]

29 minutes ago, rv78 said:

Doesn't really matter. There's only 1 team in MLB now and that's the Dodgers. If it isn't addressed and corrected at the CBA next year, we can all hold on to the dream of being the World Series Loser.

Yep. It really doesn’t matter now.  Until MLB corrects this massive imbalance via a cap and floor it’s futile

[laloesch]

They really needed another good starter. Dean Kremer does not do it for me. He fills a short term gap I guess, but not much more than that. 

[Eris]

Defensively the team ranks near the bottom (28th using FanGraphs). There is really not much can be done in this regard with the current roster. Only the catchers and Kreidler are above average defensively. 

[Andy MacPhail]

A #3 SP, IMO, was a priority, to slot behind Ryan & Bradley, in a postseason play. Still, This deadline has been the best in a long time (of course time will tell at how good), which isn't saying much. I'm not a fan of a 6-man rotation. But looking at the condition of the rotation & pitching, normally runs out of gas going into the postseason, I'm in favor of it in this case.

The BP has been bottom feeders all season. Now they are in the top half of the league, maybe in the top 10. Still, CLE & CWS improved too. It'll be an interesting finish. It'll be a good experience for younger players in a playoff race & hopely in the playoff.

[thelanges5]

Zoll and Tom told us they were going to be buyers, go after pitching (specifically bullpen). They did what they said they were going to do. 💯 agree with the OP - rotation and lineup need to get back on track for the Twins to make any noise in the Central and/or playoffs. Better season than I was expecting. 

[Fatbat]

39 minutes ago, rv78 said:

Doesn't really matter. There's only 1 team in MLB now and that's the Dodgers. If it isn't addressed and corrected at the CBA next year, we can all hold on to the dream of being the World Series Loser.

The Dodgers are some talented dudes that wont get to this years WS. There are several good teams in the NL. 
Dodgers lose in the NLCS to the Brewers.  Twins lose to the Rays in the ALCS.

October baseball is going to be epic. 

[NYCTK]

3 minutes ago, Fatbat said:

The Dodgers are some talented dudes that wont get to this years WS. There are several good teams in the NL. 
Dodgers lose in the NLCS to the Brewers.  Twins lose to the Rays in the ALCS.

October baseball is going to be epic. 

The cheap owners are all going to be supporting the Dodgers. They want the narrative so they can put in a big push for a cap to help their bottom lines. 

So much so, I kind of buy into the conspiracy that the Tigers took less to help the Dodgers for this reason. 

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

I am firmly in the camp that the Dean Kremer trade will be viewed positively.   36 innings and 6.5 ERA is a small sample size and a guy coming back from injury,  but his stuff under the hood still looks good.  I think he will be a good steady #3 at best or #4 pitcher similar in the Ober mold (with better stuff).  

Hoffman and Kremer were both players that had recent hiccups and some lack of confidence from ownership/fans.  Hoffman took a lot of backlash for the World Series.  Kremer's return from injury so far has been a bit ugly but has been the victim of a 3.0 HR/9.    They were effectively buy low candidates with upside.  The issue is we still paid quite a bit for Hoffman - I just wish we had done something like this is the offseason.  Actually spent some money and traded a few decent pieces when prices were cheaper.   We paid a premium on all 3 trades,  I just think the margin of improvement is likely greater than what we paid for Kremer,  Hoffman on the other hand - even though I like him I don't understand it.  He can be a top 10 closer for the next 210+ games.  However to acquire that closer was pretty costly and is a luxury that a mediocre team doesn't need.  

We have a 27% chance at the playoffs even after the trade.  Between the starting pitching wearing out, or the hitters not producing the same amount of runs they did pre deadline I am just not sure we have enough to even make it to the playoffs, let alone do something in the playoffs.  If you think the Twins can be WS champions,  there are currently +8000 odds for you LOL.   Tom will get his wish of a few more fans in the stands for the next few weeks and then we will see if they are still competing for a spot or not.  This really only pays off for Tom if they can be in the race all the way up til the end of the season. I am still unsure how many tickets he can sell for next season if we get into the playoffs.