The Twins Boldly Bolstered Their Bullpen. Can the Rotation and Lineup Do Their Parts?

Generally speaking, it's an exaggeration to say their bullpen has been the Twins' biggest strength. The unit has been quite bad overall, which was predictable after they gutted the relief corps at last year's deadline and did little to address it in the offseason. 

Except, of late, the bullpen actually has been this team's biggest strength. Since the start of July, Twins relievers rank 10th among MLB teams in fWAR, fifth in ERA, and ninth in Win Probability Added. Their starters, meanwhile, are 21st in WAR, 23rd in ERA, 21st in WPA. Their offense: 21st in WAR, 19th in wOBA, 6th in WPA. (That knack for timely hitting keeps on propping them up.)

Prior to the additions of Jeff Hoffman and A.J. Minter, I certainly wouldn't say I felt confident in the Twins bullpen to keep performing at the level it did in July ... but, I might have felt more confident in that unit's outlook than the rotation or the lineup. 

Let's start with the starters. Here you've got:

• Joe Ryan openly battling arm fatigue as he lapses into familiar second-half struggles.
• Bailey Ober averaging 87 MPH with his fastball.
• Connor Prielipp already venturing into unprecedented workload territory as he nears 100 innings.
• Dean Kremer bringing in a 6.50 ERA and hoping to gravitate back toward his career norm of mediocrity.
• Zebby Matthews optioned to the minors (for now) with a 5.22 ERA this year and 5.64 for this career.
• Pablo López, Mick Abel and David Festa all out for the season.

In the rotation mix, only Taj Bradley is inspiring a ton of confidence from both a durability and performance standpoint. And even then, there is a turbulent track record to contend with. The admirable depth boasted by Minnesota's starting corps entering this season has been whittled away, to the point where Kremer comes aboard as a credible upgrade. I wonder if we'll look back in two months lamenting the lack of one more front-end starter.

Offensively, the Twins offer a little more reason for optimism. They continue to pace all American League teams in runs scored, although as mentioned earlier, it's a bit of a deceiving indicator. Twins hitters lead all of baseball in OPS with runners in scoring position. All their scoring up to this point is banked, but a big gap between overall performance and RISP is a glaring regression flag. Sure enough, we've already been seeing this play out in recent weeks, with the lineup drifting into long stretches of silence. The Twins rank 21st in runs scored since the break, identical to their hitting WAR rank for the season.

Although the front office didn't make any additions to the position player group, they also didn't make any subtractions, which could be viewed in some ways as an investment in the offense. Trevor Larnach and Ryan Jeffers have been the club's two best hitters (sans the injured Byron Buxton), and both were circumstantial trade candidates. Minnesota held onto both — perhaps to the detriment of their long-term benefit — in order to at least hold steady in terms of bats. 

Ultimately, the Twins are asking their rotation and lineup to solve their own problems. There will be no external cavalry riding in to stabilize a thinning starting staff or reignite an offense that's cooled after carrying the club for much of the season. While that may feel unsatisfying in the moment, it's a defensible approach. 

Front offices can't afford to chase the last three weeks. The bullpen that looks like a strength today looked like one of baseball's biggest liabilities a month ago, and few areas of the sport are more volatile than relief pitching. Jeremy Zoll and company weren't buying July's results so much as insulating themselves against what history says is likely to come next. 

If those additions prove necessary, they'll look prescient. The bigger question is whether the starters and hitters can rediscover their form without the same kind of reinforcement.

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