Could Minnesota Twins Jump Trade Market By Selling High on Chris Paddack?

[Cody Christie]

Image courtesy of © Nathan Ray Seebeck-Imagn Images

Chris Paddack has been a revelation for the Minnesota Twins in 2025, delivering consistent performances that have bolstered the team's rotation. With nine of his last 10 starts yielding two or fewer earned runs, Paddack's resurgence is noteworthy. However, as the trade deadline approaches, the Twins face a pivotal decision: capitalize on Paddack's current form to address pressing offensive needs, or retain him for a potential postseason push.

Paddack was acquired by the Twins in 2022 and made just five starts before his elbow gave out. After undergoing his second Tommy John surgery in May 2022, Paddack's future was uncertain. Recognizing his potential, the Twins signed him to a creative three-year, $12.5-million extension in January 2023, securing his services through the 2025 season. This deal provided cost certainty and an opportunity for Paddack to reestablish himself after his recovery.

In 2025, Paddack has not only returned to form, but become a linchpin in the rotation. His ability to limit runs and provide quality starts has been instrumental in the Twins' competitiveness. His 32.3% chase rate ranks in the 86th percentile among starters, and his fastball has been one of baseball’s most valuable pitches, worth 8 runs above average. Batters posted a .400 SLG against his four-seamer last season, and he’s dropped that total below .300 in 2025. However, with his contract set to expire at the end of the season, the organization must weigh the benefits of his current contributions against potential long-term gains from a trade.

While Paddack's surface-level stats are impressive, a deeper dive raises questions about the sustainability of his success. His strikeout rate has declined to 18.7%, which is over four points lower than the MLB average this season. Other advanced metrics suggest he's benefitting from favorable batted-ball outcomes, with a .246 BABIP that's nearly 50 points below the league average. Such indicators suggest potential regression, making it imperative for the Twins to determine whether his current performance is a true reflection of his abilities or a temporary peak. It’s also important to note that other teams trading for Paddack will be aware of these numbers, too. 

Organizational Depth and Future Planning
The Twins are fortunate to possess promising pitching talent in Triple A. David Festa, for instance, made three starts (13 innings) for the Twins earlier this year and posted a 1.38 ERA with 15 strikeouts and five walks. Festa dealt with a minor injury and missed a couple of turns in the rotation, but has come back strong. Over his last two appearances (8 2/3 innings), he has allowed one earned run on five hits, with 12 strikeouts and two walks. If not for his injury, he likely would have already been in the rotation over Zebby Matthews. 

Despite recent struggles leading to a demotion, Simeon Woods Richardson remains a key prospect with significant upside. He has made two Triple-A starts and allowed three earned runs in 12 innings with a 13-to-2 strikeout-to-walk ratio. He’s held batters to a .472 OPS during that stretch. Woods Richardson, Festa, and Matthews provide the Twins with flexibility. Should they choose to trade Paddack, these young arms could step into the rotation, gaining valuable experience and (hopefully) contributing to the team's success.

Trade Considerations
Trading Paddack isn't merely about offloading salary, because that salary would be useless for the front office (unless they were able to reallocate it to the roster at the deadline). Paddack’s name swirled in trade rumors this winter and indicated the Twins' interest in securing meaningful returns, rather than engaging in a mere salary dump. Given the current market, contending teams in need of pitching depth might offer an offensive asset in exchange. This is a tricky needle to thread, as it is tough to match up on trades exchanging big-league players for one another, especially during the season. However, MLB's expanded playoff picture means more teams are on the fringes of the playoff picture and looking for a boost. 

The decision to trade Paddack is multifaceted. While his recent performances have been stellar, underlying metrics suggest caution is warranted. Coupled with organizational pitching depth and the potential to bolster the offense, the Twins have compelling reasons to consider a trade. Ultimately, the move should align with the team's long-term vision, ensuring sustained competitiveness in the seasons to come.

---

Should the Twins try to sell high on Paddack? Can they get anything for him? Leave a comment and start the discussion.

View full article

[mickster]

Face value this makes sense.   I just don't feel he will bring an impact bat back and we need him in the 4th spot in the rotation as I am not comfortable with Zebby/Festa/SWR filling 2/5 of the rotation at this time.

[FlyingFinn]

We had an article that the clubhouse is really down because the Twins send guys to the minors one day early (I don't believe it's affecting the clubhouse). I think trading Paddack would actually affect the clubhouse as they see him as one of the keys to our season. 

[mikelink45]

It really depends on what we would get back.  The early we traded the higher the value, but are we sure we can afford to take him out of the rotation?  Are Festa and SWR as good as he is?

If we trade the Yankees are in desperate need and desperation raises the value of the return.  Arizona needs someone now that Burnes is down.  If we trade - maximize the opportunity.

[JDubs]

These kinds of trade proposals are always funny to me, because it's predicated on the fact that his recent success is probably smoke and mirrors as the underlying numbers don't back it up, so we should hurry up and trade him before he turns back into a pumpkin. But this entire argument assumes other teams can't also see those underlying numbers and draw the exact same conclusion. Why would a team give up a meaningfully good position player (which is the only thing the Twins should be interested in with a Paddack trade) for a pitcher who is very likely to regress?

[JD-TWINS]

The other guys can get the job done, IMO, in the 4/5 slots!

However, a guy with mixed metrics suggesting regression isn’t going to net any great return as a pending FA.

He’s pitched well & gotten better results. Since his first start, with run support, he may have best record on the Staff. Can’t upset the Clubhouse with any trades unless there is some decline. ………….I still think he runs out of gas pitching every 5th turn. An IL break in August and him returning to PEN in September………filling what is now Alcala’s spot, brings real value!!

[MinnInPa]

you would get no high quality bat to help for Paddock...he might bring just another average platoon hitter just like the many we already have. 

[arby58]

The real question is where do the Twins need offensive help, and who would be available that is a significant upgrade? Obviously, Royce Lewis is the 'missing bat' in the lineup at the moment, but one would assume the Twins aren't interested in replacing him long-term. Correa has had his struggles, but he is good defensively and is starting to pick it up. With Buxton and Wallner back, the offense looks a lot more dangerous. I would let it ride.

[Patzky]

26 minutes ago, mikelink45 said:

It really depends on what we would get back.  The early we traded the higher the value, but are we sure we can afford to take him out of the rotation?  Are Festa and SWR as good as he is?

If we trade the Yankees are in desperate need and desperation raises the value of the return.  Arizona needs someone now that Burnes is down.  If we trade - maximize the opportunity.

Do you really want to look out of your dugout and see Paddack throwing a shutout for the Yankees in the ALDS deciding game? No you don't. Right now he's the most consistent guy we have going out there. Anyone can get hurt anytime. He's removed from a major surgery and living up to his earlier expectations (and more).  

 

I think it's past the What can we get for him time and now we're at the We're lucky we have him time. I mean, we are contenders aren't we?

[TheLeviathan]

[Patzky]

32 minutes ago, mikelink45 said:

It really depends on what we would get back.  The early we traded the higher the value, but are we sure we can afford to take him out of the rotation?  Are Festa and SWR as good as he is?

If we trade the Yankees are in desperate need and desperation raises the value of the return.  Arizona needs someone now that Burnes is down.  If we trade - maximize the opportunity.

If we trade him you don't want to see him again in October. Sheriffs hold grudges. 

[Doctor Wu]

Now that the Twins are playing better and back in a playoff hunt, why would they want to trade one of their more reliable starting pitchers? Yes, we have some depth at AAA but I'm not sure it's strong enough to overcome the potential absence of Paddack. And deal him for what? If it looks like we are tanking a month from now, go ahead and field whatever offers there are and then try and trade him. But at this point I think the Twins are better off holding on to him. 

[Cory Engelhardt]

Not today no. Even if his era goes back closer to 4, the innings he provides have been so valuable. 

IF Festa and SWR are truly ready again come the deadline, and Zebby has stuck around (and there aren't other injuries) then I can see them selling AND buying at the deadline.

[Major League Ready]

44 minutes ago, JDubs said:

These kinds of trade proposals are always funny to me, because it's predicated on the fact that his recent success is probably smoke and mirrors as the underlying numbers don't back it up, so we should hurry up and trade him before he turns back into a pumpkin. But this entire argument assumes other teams can't also see those underlying numbers and draw the exact same conclusion. Why would a team give up a meaningfully good position player (which is the only thing the Twins should be interested in with a Paddack trade) for a pitcher who is very likely to regress?

The whole thing depends on another team interpreting the underlying numbers & results and believing he can contribute.  Sometimes teams believe.  Sometimes they are right and sometimes they are wrong but it does happen.  Where I see as the bigger problem is a contender looking for help giving up a good major league player for Paddack.  Any team investing in a current team will be looking to trade prospects.  The question becomes if we have a suitable replacement such we would not be losing much and is the future value meaningful.  Cleveland, Oakland, and Tampa have used these types of trades to sustain success but it's not a popular move with fans.

No rule says they can't trade Paddack for prospects and buy a bat with prospects.

[Blyleven2011]

50 minutes ago, mikelink45 said:

It really depends on what we would get back.  The early we traded the higher the value, but are we sure we can afford to take him out of the rotation?  Are Festa and SWR as good as he is?

If we trade the Yankees are in desperate need and desperation raises the value of the return.  Arizona needs someone now that Burnes is down.  If we trade - maximize the opportunity.

I wouldn't trade with Yankees,  they really haven't much talented prospects  because they are always trading away that talent for major league ready players  ...

As well as paddack is pitching  , I can see teams that are looking for pitching and are contenders right now and want to push and make a statement  ...

Dodgers , Atlanta  , San Francisco  are teams that have injuries and need pitching  , give them a call  , I'm okay with trading paddack if we can fill a need in our lineup and a position  ...

Don't need any DH  types...

[IndianaTwin]

Out of curiosity, when's the last time a contending team traded a starting pitcher on pace for a 2.5 WAR season?

 

 

[nicksaviking]

The Twins need a middle of the order bat. A couple of them actually. Paddack won't bring that back in return and anything less than that sounds like trading him just to trade him.

[Trov]

57 minutes ago, JDubs said:

These kinds of trade proposals are always funny to me, because it's predicated on the fact that his recent success is probably smoke and mirrors as the underlying numbers don't back it up, so we should hurry up and trade him before he turns back into a pumpkin. But this entire argument assumes other teams can't also see those underlying numbers and draw the exact same conclusion. Why would a team give up a meaningfully good position player (which is the only thing the Twins should be interested in with a Paddack trade) for a pitcher who is very likely to regress?

It is not completely based on the fact their is likely to be regression.  Of course the other teams will see the same numbers.  The question for the team taking him on will be when will the regression be?  Will it be this season, will it be later on?  Also, will they be able to sustain his numbers longer.  No one is saying Paddack is going to win a Cy Young.  However, there are teams that are struggling to fill out their rotation at this point due to injuries.  No, Paddack will not bring back some huge piece, but teams like Tampa, and Cleveland have for years dealt established guys in their rotations middle of the year to supplement and reload system knowing they can get something, instead of nothing when they walk. 

I started the forum yesterday on this subject, love when that sparks a more in depth article that I do not have time to write. However, for myself it is not just about flipping him for something we really need right now, but knowing teams will take him on right now hoping his regression will not be soon, you can get something in return for your 4th starter.  If we did not have Festa or SWR that could fill in I would not suggest this.  However, being either one if not both could fill in and not be that much of a regression from what we expect from Paddack.  Coming into the year he was fighting for the 5th spot. 

[Cory Engelhardt]

20 minutes ago, IndianaTwin said:

Out of curiosity, when's the last time a contending team traded a starting pitcher on pace for a 2.5 WAR season?

 

 

Last year Detroit did that with Jack Flaherty. They also made the postseason. 

[Blyleven2011]

38 minutes ago, Patzky said:

Do you really want to look out of your dugout and see Paddack throwing a shutout for the Yankees in the ALDS deciding game? No you don't. Right now he's the most consistent guy we have going out there. Anyone can get hurt anytime. He's removed from a major surgery and living up to his earlier expectations (and more).  

 

I think it's past the What can we get for him time and now we're at the We're lucky we have him time. I mean, we are contenders aren't we?

I'll give you my answer at the end of June if we are contenders ...

The twins started April bad , May they showed better results in playing competitive baseball  ...

2 months of baseball  , 1 bad , 1 good , show me better consistency on the offense , pitching remains the same and maybe at the end of June we can talk about the team being contenders ...

Most of all , June is the month to show us fans what kind of identity they might have , right now it's undecided except for the strength of our pitching ...

[DJL44]

1 hour ago, JDubs said:

Why would a team give up a meaningfully good position player (which is the only thing the Twins should be interested in with a Paddack trade) for a pitcher who is very likely to regress?

Why did the Twins give up Wilson Ramos for Matt Capps?

[T.O.]

What position player would they replace? Unless they can find a 2nd catcher that can hit I don't see a position they would give up on. They won't do that because they would still have to pay Vasquez salary. The big non producing position is 3rd base and they're not going to give up on the experiment that is Lewis any time soon. They've been lucky this year with players other teams didn't want but that luck can't go on forever.

The team that got us here has talent. They just need to be consistent. Not sure a new hitter will bring that kind of magic.

[Western SD Fan]

For context, I have been riding the trade Paddack wagon since the offseason.  I finally got off a few stops ago when he started going through this current stretch of excellent pitching.  I don't fully trust in the combination of Festa, SWR, and Matthews.  Matthews gave us a Herculean start on Friday keeping us in the game in order for us to come back for the win.  Festa is building back up from arm fatigue.  SWR is improving in St. Paul, but I'm not sure he's at the point he can replace Paddack at the moment in the rotation.  None of these 3 have been able to consistently get past the 5th inning.  We have been nervous all season about bullpen usage, especially now since it seems we can't trust two of our pitchers in the bullpen.  Trading someone who has been saving bullpen arms seems illogical.  

Let's go all out with rampant speculation and suggest that we can get somewhere close to a similar package for Paddack that the Blue Jays got for Kikuchi.  Even if we can get that type of a package, that is three young players/prospects that will be blocked in St. Paul since we already have a robust list of AAA/AAAA players that people are asking for to be brought up to the ML roster with more waiting in the wings.  I agree with a previous poster that I don't see a team giving up a middle of the order bat for Paddack and also believe that any trade partner will want us to take on the salary, which we are unsure at this point what ownership will allow for spending.  

[luckylager]

Rotation depth is important. Paddack is finally able to do what the Twins signed him to do,  Ride that train until the wheels fall off.

[mickster]

41 minutes ago, Trov said:

It is not completely based on the fact their is likely to be regression.  Of course the other teams will see the same numbers.  The question for the team taking him on will be when will the regression be?  Will it be this season, will it be later on?  Also, will they be able to sustain his numbers longer.  No one is saying Paddack is going to win a Cy Young.  However, there are teams that are struggling to fill out their rotation at this point due to injuries.  No, Paddack will not bring back some huge piece, but teams like Tampa, and Cleveland have for years dealt established guys in their rotations middle of the year to supplement and reload system knowing they can get something, instead of nothing when they walk. 

I started the forum yesterday on this subject, love when that sparks a more in depth article that I do not have time to write. However, for myself it is not just about flipping him for something we really need right now, but knowing teams will take him on right now hoping his regression will not be soon, you can get something in return for your 4th starter.  If we did not have Festa or SWR that could fill in I would not suggest this.  However, being either one if not both could fill in and not be that much of a regression from what we expect from Paddack.  Coming into the year he was fighting for the 5th spot. 

Disagree - Both Festa and SWR would be a regression from Paddack

[amjgt]

I'd much rather keep him and wish on a 2025 performance strong enough to warrant a Qualifying Offer. I can't imagine anything we would get back would be comparable in value to a comp pick and then we don't shatter team chemistry by coldly trading away a key member of the pitching staff because he's "at peak value"

Bader is probably at peak value too. Should we trade him?

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

Ok,  so this discusses trading a pitcher who has performed well in a small sample size but the underlying numbers are not as good as the surface ones,  and then thinks we can get something valuable for Paddack.  Just seems very odd.  You have Paddack for $7.5 million.  Unless someone is going to blow you out of the water with a bat or a top 100 prospect why on earth do you trade him.  You won't get the value of his current performance,  like 1/2 to 2/3rds because of the peripherals.   So you ride him.  If he does really well you have options at the end of the season, and possible draft compensation.   Its a long ways off, and no different than Kepler.  Its a situation that likely won't come to fruition, but if everything fell right,  you get a full year of good Paddack and a draft pick.   That sounds like the best outcome.  

[amjgt]

Before anyone scoffs at the idea of a QO. Check out these three guys and their seasons leading up to free agency last offseason. They all turned down QOs and got an average of about 3/60 in the free agent market (Paddack will be younger than any of them were, by the way)

Severino - https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/severlu01.shtml

Pivetta - https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/p/pivetni01.shtml

Manaea - https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/manaese01.shtml

 

[Parfigliano]

4 minutes ago, mickster said:

Disagree - Both Festa and SWR would be a regression from Paddack

Right now yes.

[jorgenswest]

It is early for a trade. I think they need him to continue this stretch through the all star break before teams are desperate enough to overpay.

They should be listening though. I think injury is as likely as regression. Is there a catcher with some control that is ready to help in the major leagues this year? I suggested the Cubs Miguel Amaya in @Trov’s thread but he has an injured oblique now. I am not sure Dalton Rushing is as ready but he would be an overpay that I am looking for if the Dodgers are desperate.

Are the Red Sox buyers? Are they ready to make room for Roman Anthony? Jaren Duran is having a bit of an off year and has a reasonable team option for next year. He is rumored in trade talks and would fit the Twins line up. I think they need another true lefty and their is space for all three left handed hitting outfielders and Buxton if they are all healthy,

I am sure the response is going to be no way they get that return but that is the point. Starting pitching is always a premium. No teams have enough. For a contender to move on from a starting pitcher they really need to be blown away. The Twins should be listening.