Could Minnesota Twins Jump Trade Market By Selling High on Chris Paddack?

Face value this makes sense.   I just don't feel he will bring an impact bat back and we need him in the 4th spot in the rotation as I am not comfortable with Zebby/Festa/SWR filling 2/5 of the rotation at this time.

We had an article that the clubhouse is really down because the Twins send guys to the minors one day early (I don't believe it's affecting the clubhouse). I think trading Paddack would actually affect the clubhouse as they see him as one of the keys to our season. 

These kinds of trade proposals are always funny to me, because it's predicated on the fact that his recent success is probably smoke and mirrors as the underlying numbers don't back it up, so we should hurry up and trade him before he turns back into a pumpkin. But this entire argument assumes other teams can't also see those underlying numbers and draw the exact same conclusion. Why would a team give up a meaningfully good position player (which is the only thing the Twins should be interested in with a Paddack trade) for a pitcher who is very likely to regress?

you would get no high quality bat to help for Paddock...he might bring just another average platoon hitter just like the many we already have. 

Now that the Twins are playing better and back in a playoff hunt, why would they want to trade one of their more reliable starting pitchers? Yes, we have some depth at AAA but I'm not sure it's strong enough to overcome the potential absence of Paddack. And deal him for what? If it looks like we are tanking a month from now, go ahead and field whatever offers there are and then try and trade him. But at this point I think the Twins are better off holding on to him. 

44 minutes ago, JDubs said:

These kinds of trade proposals are always funny to me, because it's predicated on the fact that his recent success is probably smoke and mirrors as the underlying numbers don't back it up, so we should hurry up and trade him before he turns back into a pumpkin. But this entire argument assumes other teams can't also see those underlying numbers and draw the exact same conclusion. Why would a team give up a meaningfully good position player (which is the only thing the Twins should be interested in with a Paddack trade) for a pitcher who is very likely to regress?

The whole thing depends on another team interpreting the underlying numbers & results and believing he can contribute.  Sometimes teams believe.  Sometimes they are right and sometimes they are wrong but it does happen.  Where I see as the bigger problem is a contender looking for help giving up a good major league player for Paddack.  Any team investing in a current team will be looking to trade prospects.  The question becomes if we have a suitable replacement such we would not be losing much and is the future value meaningful.  Cleveland, Oakland, and Tampa have used these types of trades to sustain success but it's not a popular move with fans.

No rule says they can't trade Paddack for prospects and buy a bat with prospects.

50 minutes ago, mikelink45 said:

It really depends on what we would get back.  The early we traded the higher the value, but are we sure we can afford to take him out of the rotation?  Are Festa and SWR as good as he is?

If we trade the Yankees are in desperate need and desperation raises the value of the return.  Arizona needs someone now that Burnes is down.  If we trade - maximize the opportunity.

I wouldn't trade with Yankees,  they really haven't much talented prospects  because they are always trading away that talent for major league ready players  ...

As well as paddack is pitching  , I can see teams that are looking for pitching and are contenders right now and want to push and make a statement  ...

Dodgers , Atlanta  , San Francisco  are teams that have injuries and need pitching  , give them a call  , I'm okay with trading paddack if we can fill a need in our lineup and a position  ...

Don't need any DH  types...

57 minutes ago, JDubs said:

These kinds of trade proposals are always funny to me, because it's predicated on the fact that his recent success is probably smoke and mirrors as the underlying numbers don't back it up, so we should hurry up and trade him before he turns back into a pumpkin. But this entire argument assumes other teams can't also see those underlying numbers and draw the exact same conclusion. Why would a team give up a meaningfully good position player (which is the only thing the Twins should be interested in with a Paddack trade) for a pitcher who is very likely to regress?

It is not completely based on the fact their is likely to be regression.  Of course the other teams will see the same numbers.  The question for the team taking him on will be when will the regression be?  Will it be this season, will it be later on?  Also, will they be able to sustain his numbers longer.  No one is saying Paddack is going to win a Cy Young.  However, there are teams that are struggling to fill out their rotation at this point due to injuries.  No, Paddack will not bring back some huge piece, but teams like Tampa, and Cleveland have for years dealt established guys in their rotations middle of the year to supplement and reload system knowing they can get something, instead of nothing when they walk. 

I started the forum yesterday on this subject, love when that sparks a more in depth article that I do not have time to write. However, for myself it is not just about flipping him for something we really need right now, but knowing teams will take him on right now hoping his regression will not be soon, you can get something in return for your 4th starter.  If we did not have Festa or SWR that could fill in I would not suggest this.  However, being either one if not both could fill in and not be that much of a regression from what we expect from Paddack.  Coming into the year he was fighting for the 5th spot. 

38 minutes ago, Patzky said:

Do you really want to look out of your dugout and see Paddack throwing a shutout for the Yankees in the ALDS deciding game? No you don't. Right now he's the most consistent guy we have going out there. Anyone can get hurt anytime. He's removed from a major surgery and living up to his earlier expectations (and more).  

 

I think it's past the What can we get for him time and now we're at the We're lucky we have him time. I mean, we are contenders aren't we?

I'll give you my answer at the end of June if we are contenders ...

The twins started April bad , May they showed better results in playing competitive baseball  ...

2 months of baseball  , 1 bad , 1 good , show me better consistency on the offense , pitching remains the same and maybe at the end of June we can talk about the team being contenders ...

Most of all , June is the month to show us fans what kind of identity they might have , right now it's undecided except for the strength of our pitching ...

1 hour ago, JDubs said:

Why would a team give up a meaningfully good position player (which is the only thing the Twins should be interested in with a Paddack trade) for a pitcher who is very likely to regress?

Why did the Twins give up Wilson Ramos for Matt Capps?

For context, I have been riding the trade Paddack wagon since the offseason.  I finally got off a few stops ago when he started going through this current stretch of excellent pitching.  I don't fully trust in the combination of Festa, SWR, and Matthews.  Matthews gave us a Herculean start on Friday keeping us in the game in order for us to come back for the win.  Festa is building back up from arm fatigue.  SWR is improving in St. Paul, but I'm not sure he's at the point he can replace Paddack at the moment in the rotation.  None of these 3 have been able to consistently get past the 5th inning.  We have been nervous all season about bullpen usage, especially now since it seems we can't trust two of our pitchers in the bullpen.  Trading someone who has been saving bullpen arms seems illogical.  

Let's go all out with rampant speculation and suggest that we can get somewhere close to a similar package for Paddack that the Blue Jays got for Kikuchi.  Even if we can get that type of a package, that is three young players/prospects that will be blocked in St. Paul since we already have a robust list of AAA/AAAA players that people are asking for to be brought up to the ML roster with more waiting in the wings.  I agree with a previous poster that I don't see a team giving up a middle of the order bat for Paddack and also believe that any trade partner will want us to take on the salary, which we are unsure at this point what ownership will allow for spending.  

Rotation depth is important. Paddack is finally able to do what the Twins signed him to do,  Ride that train until the wheels fall off.

41 minutes ago, Trov said:

It is not completely based on the fact their is likely to be regression.  Of course the other teams will see the same numbers.  The question for the team taking him on will be when will the regression be?  Will it be this season, will it be later on?  Also, will they be able to sustain his numbers longer.  No one is saying Paddack is going to win a Cy Young.  However, there are teams that are struggling to fill out their rotation at this point due to injuries.  No, Paddack will not bring back some huge piece, but teams like Tampa, and Cleveland have for years dealt established guys in their rotations middle of the year to supplement and reload system knowing they can get something, instead of nothing when they walk. 

I started the forum yesterday on this subject, love when that sparks a more in depth article that I do not have time to write. However, for myself it is not just about flipping him for something we really need right now, but knowing teams will take him on right now hoping his regression will not be soon, you can get something in return for your 4th starter.  If we did not have Festa or SWR that could fill in I would not suggest this.  However, being either one if not both could fill in and not be that much of a regression from what we expect from Paddack.  Coming into the year he was fighting for the 5th spot. 

Disagree - Both Festa and SWR would be a regression from Paddack

Ok,  so this discusses trading a pitcher who has performed well in a small sample size but the underlying numbers are not as good as the surface ones,  and then thinks we can get something valuable for Paddack.  Just seems very odd.  You have Paddack for $7.5 million.  Unless someone is going to blow you out of the water with a bat or a top 100 prospect why on earth do you trade him.  You won't get the value of his current performance,  like 1/2 to 2/3rds because of the peripherals.   So you ride him.  If he does really well you have options at the end of the season, and possible draft compensation.   Its a long ways off, and no different than Kepler.  Its a situation that likely won't come to fruition, but if everything fell right,  you get a full year of good Paddack and a draft pick.   That sounds like the best outcome.  

It is early for a trade. I think they need him to continue this stretch through the all star break before teams are desperate enough to overpay.

They should be listening though. I think injury is as likely as regression. Is there a catcher with some control that is ready to help in the major leagues this year? I suggested the Cubs Miguel Amaya in @Trov’s thread but he has an injured oblique now. I am not sure Dalton Rushing is as ready but he would be an overpay that I am looking for if the Dodgers are desperate.

Are the Red Sox buyers? Are they ready to make room for Roman Anthony? Jaren Duran is having a bit of an off year and has a reasonable team option for next year. He is rumored in trade talks and would fit the Twins line up. I think they need another true lefty and their is space for all three left handed hitting outfielders and Buxton if they are all healthy,

I am sure the response is going to be no way they get that return but that is the point. Starting pitching is always a premium. No teams have enough. For a contender to move on from a starting pitcher they really need to be blown away. The Twins should be listening.

2 hours ago, mikelink45 said:

It really depends on what we would get back.  The early we traded the higher the value, but are we sure we can afford to take him out of the rotation?  Are Festa and SWR as good as he is?

If we trade the Yankees are in desperate need and desperation raises the value of the return.  Arizona needs someone now that Burnes is down.  If we trade - maximize the opportunity.

I was eyeing AZ also. If AZ were open for a Del Castillo trade. We desperately need a promising young MLB-ready 3rd catcher to help relieve Jeffers when he falters in the 2nd half & replace Vazquez next year. Of course, we'll have to throw in much more into that trade.

Paddack can't keep up the pace that he is doing w/o his arm falling off. In his last year, if AZ is motivated, yeah, trade him. Our young SPs can step up to the occasion, including long relief.