Chris Paddack Has Dibs on a Rotation Spot, and a Chance to Emerge as a Vital Cog for 2025 Twins

[Cody Pirkl]

The Sheriff is sticking on the Twins roster for the 2025 season, it seems, despite a winter of wondering whether he could get dealt elsewhere. Is this the season he puts it all together?

Image courtesy of Tommy Gilligan-USA TODAY Sports

Chris Paddack’s future with the Twins seemed in question at the end of last season. His year was cut short by a forearm injury, and his reasonable price tag was an appealing possible way for the Twins front office to shed some salary. Paddack has made it through the offseason, though, and is set to make the Twins roster when the team heads north. His time with the Twins has been uneventful and underwhelming so far, but there’s reason to believe Paddack can make an impact with the Twins in 2025.

For a team that’s usually so cautious regarding injuries, the Twins’ usage of Paddack in 2024 was surprising. He had no restrictions coming into the season, despite missing most of 2023 while recovering from his second Tommy John surgery. He showed plenty of upside at times, but looked to run out of gas on other occasions as his fastball velocity dipped. The average velocity of 93.3 mph on his fastball was the lowest of his career, and his year was cut short by a strained forearm from which he never made it back. 

Paddack being another year removed from Tommy John is the biggest reason to hope for a rebound. It often takes this long for pitchers to build back up entirely, and in Paddack’s case, it was his second go-round. While his 2024 season was inconsistent, he showed that he didn’t lose the raw talent in his arm.

The Twins have a wealth of youthful depth pieces for the rotation, and there’s an argument to be made that someone like David Festa deserves a rotation spot from Day 1 over Paddack. However, Paddack is being paid $7.5 million and will be given every opportunity to hold a rotation spot. It’s a (potentially) mutually beneficial situation, as the Twins can get their money’s worth out of Paddack filling innings as even an average back-end starter, and Paddack can rebuild some value before hitting the free agent market for the first time in his career next winter.

There’s a scenario where Paddack returns significant excess value on the Twins’ investment in him. Even last season, when his velocity was down and his typically dominant changeup underperformed, Paddack’s peripherals pointed to a deserved ERA in the mid-4s, even though it was closer to 5.00. Even without him building off last season, those would be respectable numbers for a back-end starting pitcher if he can throw even 130 innings. We’ve seen multiple occasions this offseason where back-end starters with similar numbers are getting $10-15 million.

There’s also a scenario where Paddack becomes an option out of the Twins bullpen. The Twins' relief corps is likely full to begin this season, but the bullpen has no shortage of arms who may miss time with a legitimate injury or simply need a breather at points in the season. If Paddack struggles in the rotation, the Twins would certainly be incentivized to try him in the bullpen due to his salary, and 2023 gave them a glimpse of what he can be in short bursts.

The number-one hope for Paddack in 2025 is, of course, health. We’ve seen the flashes of the talent he showed early in his career, and if he's able to take the mound regularly, Paddack is sure to contribute to the Twins’ pitching staff in some fashion.

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Do you believe in a Chris Paddack bounceback? Should Paddack be given a rotation spot to open the season, or should it be an open competition—or outright given to one of the younger options who shined down the stretch in 2024? Let us know below!

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[Doctor Gast]

My concern for Paddack is the lofty goal that Paddack & Twins put on him in '24 & now for '25. He was overextended too soon in '24. The '25 goal of 200 innings is too high if they gauge him for that he'll miserably fail again. Dial him back, especially in the beginning, he'll be fine. 

[Patzky]

He's kind of the forgotten piece of the pitching staff. I wouldn't be surprised to be surprised..

[David HK]

3 minutes ago, Patzky said:

He's kind of the forgotten piece of the pitching staff. I wouldn't be surprised to be surprised..

I'm hoping to be surprised.  

Seems like we can say that about a whole bunch of Twinkie hopefuls.

*cough* Ty France  *cough* Bader *cough* etc....

[nicksaviking]

"Paddack is being paid $7.5 million and will be given every opportunity to hold a rotation spot."

I'm not saying Paddack ISN'T the best option, but it's beyond frustrating that this organization still equates paycheck with playing time. 

If he does NOT look to be one of the best five, he shouldn't be in the rotation. Games in April count just as much as they do in September.

[Fatbat]

He just turned 29 yo. He is young and if his stuff plays up without injury, he might have a career year!!! There are a ton of question marks with him and really the whole team but it could be one heck of a pitching staff with all the young talent and guys poised to knock the mlb door down!

[Craig Arko]

12 minutes ago, nicksaviking said:

"Paddack is being paid $7.5 million and will be given every opportunity to hold a rotation spot."

I'm not saying Paddack ISN'T the best option, but it's beyond frustrating that this organization still equates paycheck with playing time. 

If he does NOT look to be one of the best five, he shouldn't be in the rotation. Games in April count just as much as they do in September.

Is that what the organization said or the author of this post?

[big dog]

Paddack has a track record of some success, and real upside potential. It's only right to give him a shot at starting. If it isn't working by May 1 though it's time to consider making a change.

[DocBauer]

The reason teams had interest in acquiring Paddack is the same reason he might be of quality service to the Twins, he's not expensive, he's not yet 30yo, and he's further removed from surgery. That MIGHT mean his velocity becomes more consistent, and his vaunted changeup that he seemed to lose a feel for in 2024 might be back in 2025. 

To me that might be the biggest opportunity for him having a good season, does his change come back all the way?

Honestly, I'd rather he was moved with another piece or two for a bat that might make a difference, or as part of a move to shed salary and take on salary for said bat. No question the rotation is deeper to begin the season WITH Paddack. And I've never said I don't like the guy or I expect him to stink. I just rather would have been more aggressive in "trusting" my young arms and begun the season with SWR and Festa holding down the final 2 spots.

But I wouldn't be surprised if Paddack had himself a solid season in 2025.

[tony&rodney]

We all need to wish Chris Paddack and Ty France well this year. They both have talent, each has had some success in the major leagues before, and they were identified by the front office as key pieces to this coming year. Paddack has specifically stated he is ready for 35 starts and more than 200 innings. France is playing coy, no such statements thus far. 

Another day, another Paddack anointment. I hope these guys have terrific years. 

[TheLeviathan]

[Parfigliano]

26 minutes ago, tony&rodney said:

We all need to wish Chris Paddack and Ty France well this year. They both have talent, each has had some success in the major leagues before, and they were identified by the front office as key pieces to this coming year. Paddack has specifically stated he is ready for 35 starts and more than 200 innings. France is playing coy, no such statements thus far. 

Another day, another Paddack anointment. I hope these guys have terrific years. 

200 innings seems out of reach.   He has pitched 115 total innings in his 3 TC years.  I'd be happy if he could throw over 115 innings this year at his San Diego 4.21 ERA

[Vanimal46]

2 hours ago, Doctor Gast said:

The '25 goal of 200 innings is too high if they gauge him for that he'll miserably fail again.

There is literally no one expecting 200 innings out of a bottom of the rotation starting pitcher. An ace pitcher barely pitches 200 innings anymore 

[DocBauer]

Wanted to add that I love Paddack's enthusiasm for this season, but he's also being a bit impractical in his hopes. And that's OK. I'm glad he feels good and is ready to contribute and have a good season.

What's going to be interesting is seeing how his offseason plan turns out. He took about a week or so off, and then spent time almost daily either throwing a baseball, or football I believe,  in an attempt to keep his arm loose and strong. The thought being maybe keeping his arm more active...without overdoing it we hope...will make it stronger and more durable. I can see the method to the madness there. I guess we'll see.

[tony&rodney]

47 minutes ago, Parfigliano said:

200 innings seems out of reach.   He has pitched 115 total innings in his 3 TC years.  I'd be happy if he could throw over 115 innings this year at his San Diego 4.21 ERA

Paddack's numbers via quotes from him. 100 innings of 4.50 ERA would be amazing IMO.

[Vanimal46]

7 minutes ago, tony&rodney said:

Paddack's numbers via quotes from him.

You can quote me on this. If Anne Hathaway wants to go on a date with me I’m all in. 

[thelanges5]

In 23 and 24 we only had 2 SPs pitch the whole season. López/Gray and Lopez/Ober. We’ll need the depth and it looks better to start 25 (Desclafani and Varland were the 5th and 6th LY)

Let the Sheriff wrangle up some innings 🤠⚾️

[ashbury]

9 minutes ago, thelanges5 said:

In 23 and 24 we only had 2 SPs pitch the whole season.

LA Dodgers: "Only?  Cry us a river, please. The most by anyone in our rotation either year was 25 Games Started."   😀

[bean5302]

Why are we still living in 2019 for Chris Paddack? He is not a prospect. He is not a pitcher who has room for growth. There are reasons no teams in MLB really wanted him this past offseason.

He has never, in his entire career:
A) Pitched more than 140.2 innings.
B) Had an ERA & FIP below 3.95 in the same season.

Since his rookie season in 2019, he has never:
A) Pitched more than 108.1 innings.
B) Had an ERA below 4.73 as a starter
C) Had a K/9 higher than 8.85 as a starter

He's a #4-5, at best, if healthy. He doesn't strike many guys out, and he's no longer a ground ball guy so he gives up a ton of home runs. The Twins should trade him for a Snickers bar and salary relief if they can.

[nicksaviking]

4 hours ago, Craig Arko said:

Is that what the organization said or the author of this post?

The author is certainly pointing out the thing the Twins do every single season.

[IndianaTwin]

10 hours ago, bean5302 said:

Why are we still living in 2019 for Chris Paddack? He is not a prospect. He is not a pitcher who has room for growth. There are reasons no teams in MLB really wanted him this past offseason.

He has never, in his entire career:
A) Pitched more than 140.2 innings.
B) Had an ERA & FIP below 3.95 in the same season.

Since his rookie season in 2019, he has never:
A) Pitched more than 108.1 innings.
B) Had an ERA below 4.73 as a starter
C) Had a K/9 higher than 8.85 as a starter

He's a #4-5, at best, if healthy. He doesn't strike many guys out, and he's no longer a ground ball guy so he gives up a ton of home runs. The Twins should trade him for a Snickers bar and salary relief if they can.

Because...

A) He has a career WHIP of 1.190
B) He has a SO/BB of 4.69.
C) And...

I get it. He had another seven starts, a couple of which were so-so/weak and several of which were atrocious. In total, nearly a third of his earned runs came in two of his 17 starts and more than half came in four. 

As the OP notes, the issue is consistency, but when a guy throws that many solid to very good games (including some of the team's best starts of the year), it's worth going back to him to see if the percentage of good starts can increase in the second year back from TJS.

Will Paddack make the full 32 starts? Very doubtful, based on history. Frankly, I'm guessing the Twins don't think he will either.

But realistically, if Festa's career high in innings is 124 and he's only spent a bit more than a half season at AAA, he's not going to make 32 starts either. However, with injuries, Festa is probably going to get 20 or more starts in the majors no matter what. The question is whether those 20 come in April-August or if they start a few weeks into the season.

Paddack is one more arrow in the quiver. His 20 or starts aren't going to come at the expense of the No. 6 guy, Festa. They are going to come at the expense of the Nos. 9 or 10 guys, who they hopefully won't need to go to as quickly.

[Wizard11]

He still could be traded in the next few weeks.  Some teams will lose starters in ST and I suspect the Twins would deal if they get some value back.

[Doctor Gast]

8 hours ago, Vanimal46 said:

There is literally no one expecting 200 innings out of a bottom of the rotation starting pitcher. An ace pitcher barely pitches 200 innings anymore 

"On Friday, Paddock went so far as to say he wants to make at least 35 starts and reach the 200-inning plateau."

As I said it's ridiculous. It was ridiculous when the Twins stated last season that Paddack was the Gray replacement & would pitch 140+ innings. If Paddack had been dialed back last season, as I advocated from that 140+-inning goal, he'd have pitched much more than the 88.1 innings he had pitched. That is the point that I made & you're distracting from. Now, I doubt that the Twins have set the 200-inning goal that Paddack has set, But looking at past Paddack's history I assume it's too lofty & should be dialed back. That is the point I'm making that many disagree with but nevertheless makes the most sense.

Now Fangraph has projected SWR pitching more innings (130) than Paddack (85). This is based on past history, IF the Twins continue their overextending of Paddack around 85 is what we can look forward to. But if the Twins dial him back, I hope for closer to SWR's numbers.

[Mark G]

6 hours ago, bean5302 said:

Why are we still living in 2019 for Chris Paddack? He is not a prospect. He is not a pitcher who has room for growth. There are reasons no teams in MLB really wanted him this past offseason.

He has never, in his entire career:
A) Pitched more than 140.2 innings.
B) Had an ERA & FIP below 3.95 in the same season.

Since his rookie season in 2019, he has never:
A) Pitched more than 108.1 innings.
B) Had an ERA below 4.73 as a starter
C) Had a K/9 higher than 8.85 as a starter

He's a #4-5, at best, if healthy. He doesn't strike many guys out, and he's no longer a ground ball guy so he gives up a ton of home runs. The Twins should trade him for a Snickers bar and salary relief if they can.

I tend to agree, although I would hold out for a Baby Ruth bar.  😉

[Bodie]

14 minutes ago, Mark G said:

I tend to agree, although I would hold out for a Baby Ruth bar.  😉

But you'd settle for an open bag of M&Ms... mmm, Mauer and Morneau!

[Fezig]

I never thought I'd think this but why not... How about a 6 man staff keeping Festa and Paddack, with one caveat. No more five inning games. Let them stretch it out a little bit since they'll have an extra day off.

[Fatbat]

8 hours ago, bean5302 said:

Why are we still living in 2019 for Chris Paddack? He is not a prospect. He is not a pitcher who has room for growth. There are reasons no teams in MLB really wanted him this past offseason.

He has never, in his entire career:
A) Pitched more than 140.2 innings.
B) Had an ERA & FIP below 3.95 in the same season.

Since his rookie season in 2019, he has never:
A) Pitched more than 108.1 innings.
B) Had an ERA below 4.73 as a starter
C) Had a K/9 higher than 8.85 as a starter

He's a #4-5, at best, if healthy. He doesn't strike many guys out, and he's no longer a ground ball guy so he gives up a ton of home runs. The Twins should trade him for a Snickers bar and salary relief if they can.

Still protecting the pocket book of a billionaire. Plenty of guys have turned their career around after 29. He is depth that could shine. He is even relatively cheap. 

[thelanges5]

Based on 2024 averages we’ll need 842 innings of SP to get through 162 games. Looking at the Fangraphs projections the Twins will need Lopez, Ober, Ryan, SWR, Paddack, Festa, and Matthews to get there. 

[old nurse]

11 hours ago, Craig Arko said:

Is that what the organization said or the author of this post?

Well, if the bloggers at TD continually repeat the same thing, doesn’t that make the statement a true one?

[Fatbat]

3 hours ago, Doctor Gast said:

"On Friday, Paddock went so far as to say he wants to make at least 35 starts and reach the 200-inning plateau."

As I said it's ridiculous. It was ridiculous when the Twins stated last season that Paddack was the Gray replacement & would pitch 140+ innings. If Paddack had been dialed back last season, as I advocated from that 140+-inning goal, he'd have pitched much more than the 88.1 innings he had pitched. That is the point that I made & you're distracting from. Now, I doubt that the Twins have set the 200-inning goal that Paddack has set, But looking at past Paddack's history I assume it's too lofty & should be dialed back. That is the point I'm making that many disagree with but nevertheless makes the most sense.

Now Fangraph has projected SWR pitching more innings (130) than Paddack (85). This is based on past history, IF the Twins continue their overextending of Paddack around 85 is what we can look forward to. But if the Twins dial him back, I hope for closer to SWR's numbers.

Yeah, historically, he gets hurt, wears down, throws garbage. The Twins have 10 possible starters and most of them won’t throw 200 innings. 
Its the quality of the pitching and not so much about quantity. 100/150/200, why care about how much each guy throws. Stay healthy and throw great stuff .