Chris Paddack Has Dibs on a Rotation Spot, and a Chance to Emerge as a Vital Cog for 2025 Twins

My concern for Paddack is the lofty goal that Paddack & Twins put on him in '24 & now for '25. He was overextended too soon in '24. The '25 goal of 200 innings is too high if they gauge him for that he'll miserably fail again. Dial him back, especially in the beginning, he'll be fine. 

3 minutes ago, Patzky said:

He's kind of the forgotten piece of the pitching staff. I wouldn't be surprised to be surprised..

I'm hoping to be surprised.  

Seems like we can say that about a whole bunch of Twinkie hopefuls.

*cough* Ty France  *cough* Bader *cough* etc....

He just turned 29 yo. He is young and if his stuff plays up without injury, he might have a career year!!! There are a ton of question marks with him and really the whole team but it could be one heck of a pitching staff with all the young talent and guys poised to knock the mlb door down!

Paddack has a track record of some success, and real upside potential. It's only right to give him a shot at starting. If it isn't working by May 1 though it's time to consider making a change.

We all need to wish Chris Paddack and Ty France well this year. They both have talent, each has had some success in the major leagues before, and they were identified by the front office as key pieces to this coming year. Paddack has specifically stated he is ready for 35 starts and more than 200 innings. France is playing coy, no such statements thus far. 

Another day, another Paddack anointment. I hope these guys have terrific years. 

47 minutes ago, Parfigliano said:

200 innings seems out of reach.   He has pitched 115 total innings in his 3 TC years.  I'd be happy if he could throw over 115 innings this year at his San Diego 4.21 ERA

Paddack's numbers via quotes from him. 100 innings of 4.50 ERA would be amazing IMO.

In 23 and 24 we only had 2 SPs pitch the whole season. López/Gray and Lopez/Ober. We’ll need the depth and it looks better to start 25 (Desclafani and Varland were the 5th and 6th LY)

Let the Sheriff wrangle up some innings 🤠⚾️

He still could be traded in the next few weeks.  Some teams will lose starters in ST and I suspect the Twins would deal if they get some value back.

8 hours ago, Vanimal46 said:

There is literally no one expecting 200 innings out of a bottom of the rotation starting pitcher. An ace pitcher barely pitches 200 innings anymore 

"On Friday, Paddock went so far as to say he wants to make at least 35 starts and reach the 200-inning plateau."

As I said it's ridiculous. It was ridiculous when the Twins stated last season that Paddack was the Gray replacement & would pitch 140+ innings. If Paddack had been dialed back last season, as I advocated from that 140+-inning goal, he'd have pitched much more than the 88.1 innings he had pitched. That is the point that I made & you're distracting from. Now, I doubt that the Twins have set the 200-inning goal that Paddack has set, But looking at past Paddack's history I assume it's too lofty & should be dialed back. That is the point I'm making that many disagree with but nevertheless makes the most sense.

Now Fangraph has projected SWR pitching more innings (130) than Paddack (85). This is based on past history, IF the Twins continue their overextending of Paddack around 85 is what we can look forward to. But if the Twins dial him back, I hope for closer to SWR's numbers.

6 hours ago, bean5302 said:

Why are we still living in 2019 for Chris Paddack? He is not a prospect. He is not a pitcher who has room for growth. There are reasons no teams in MLB really wanted him this past offseason.

He has never, in his entire career:
A) Pitched more than 140.2 innings.
B) Had an ERA & FIP below 3.95 in the same season.

Since his rookie season in 2019, he has never:
A) Pitched more than 108.1 innings.
B) Had an ERA below 4.73 as a starter
C) Had a K/9 higher than 8.85 as a starter

He's a #4-5, at best, if healthy. He doesn't strike many guys out, and he's no longer a ground ball guy so he gives up a ton of home runs. The Twins should trade him for a Snickers bar and salary relief if they can.

I tend to agree, although I would hold out for a Baby Ruth bar.  😉

14 minutes ago, Mark G said:

I tend to agree, although I would hold out for a Baby Ruth bar.  😉

But you'd settle for an open bag of M&Ms... mmm, Mauer and Morneau!

I never thought I'd think this but why not... How about a 6 man staff keeping Festa and Paddack, with one caveat. No more five inning games. Let them stretch it out a little bit since they'll have an extra day off.

8 hours ago, bean5302 said:

Why are we still living in 2019 for Chris Paddack? He is not a prospect. He is not a pitcher who has room for growth. There are reasons no teams in MLB really wanted him this past offseason.

He has never, in his entire career:
A) Pitched more than 140.2 innings.
B) Had an ERA & FIP below 3.95 in the same season.

Since his rookie season in 2019, he has never:
A) Pitched more than 108.1 innings.
B) Had an ERA below 4.73 as a starter
C) Had a K/9 higher than 8.85 as a starter

He's a #4-5, at best, if healthy. He doesn't strike many guys out, and he's no longer a ground ball guy so he gives up a ton of home runs. The Twins should trade him for a Snickers bar and salary relief if they can.

Still protecting the pocket book of a billionaire. Plenty of guys have turned their career around after 29. He is depth that could shine. He is even relatively cheap. 

Based on 2024 averages we’ll need 842 innings of SP to get through 162 games. Looking at the Fangraphs projections the Twins will need Lopez, Ober, Ryan, SWR, Paddack, Festa, and Matthews to get there. 

11 hours ago, Craig Arko said:

Is that what the organization said or the author of this post?

Well, if the bloggers at TD continually repeat the same thing, doesn’t that make the statement a true one?

3 hours ago, Doctor Gast said:

"On Friday, Paddock went so far as to say he wants to make at least 35 starts and reach the 200-inning plateau."

As I said it's ridiculous. It was ridiculous when the Twins stated last season that Paddack was the Gray replacement & would pitch 140+ innings. If Paddack had been dialed back last season, as I advocated from that 140+-inning goal, he'd have pitched much more than the 88.1 innings he had pitched. That is the point that I made & you're distracting from. Now, I doubt that the Twins have set the 200-inning goal that Paddack has set, But looking at past Paddack's history I assume it's too lofty & should be dialed back. That is the point I'm making that many disagree with but nevertheless makes the most sense.

Now Fangraph has projected SWR pitching more innings (130) than Paddack (85). This is based on past history, IF the Twins continue their overextending of Paddack around 85 is what we can look forward to. But if the Twins dial him back, I hope for closer to SWR's numbers.

Yeah, historically, he gets hurt, wears down, throws garbage. The Twins have 10 possible starters and most of them won’t throw 200 innings. 
Its the quality of the pitching and not so much about quantity. 100/150/200, why care about how much each guy throws. Stay healthy and throw great stuff . 

1 hour ago, Fezig said:

I never thought I'd think this but why not... How about a 6 man staff keeping Festa and Paddack, with one caveat. No more five inning games. Let them stretch it out a little bit since they'll have an extra day off.

Because of Lopez, Ryan and Ober, why takes starts from them to give to lesser pitchers? Now if you said you wanted to keep those 6 pitchers and piggy back SWR with Festa for a while, that makes sense.