Does Simeon Woods Richardson Deserve the Twins' Final Starting Rotation Spot?

[Cody Christie]

Rocco Baldelli isn’t locked into one player for the final spot in the rotation. Instead, there seems to be a competition for one spot among a few impressive young arms. Should last year's emergent rookie get a leg up?

Image courtesy of © Orlando Ramirez-Imagn Images

Simeon Woods Richardson entered last spring with something to prove to the Twins. His 2023 season had been an unmitigated disaster. He spent most of the season pitching in Triple A, where he recorded a 4.91 ERA, a 1.50 WHIP, and a 19.3% strikeout rate. His mechanics were inconsistent and stiff, causing his fastball velocity to dip below 90 mph. As a result, Woods Richardson’s prospect status took a significant hit. Without improvement, his chances of becoming a viable major-league pitcher appeared slim.

Improbably, though, Woods Richardson saved the Twins rotation last season. He was thrust into the rotation on Apr. 13 after injuries and poor performances from other starters, and he never looked back. Across 133 2/3 innings, Woods Richardson struck out 20.6% of batters and held an ERA of 4.17. His ERA was significantly lower before the season’s final month, when he pitched past his career high in innings. At Twins Daily, SWR was the runaway choice for the team’s Rookie of the Year. Based on that performance, does he deserve the fifth starter job coming out of spring training?

“We have another spot that we have guys that they’ve shown us a lot already,” Baldelli told reporters. “We have some young guys that have really stepped their game up in the last 12 months, and we’re going to look to those guys to go out there and show us what they can do.”

We knew that, though. Which pitchers have an edge, in the skipper's eyes?

“Festa looked great. Simeon Woods Richardson had a great year for us as well. But we're not going to set the rotation or put them in any order any time soon," Baldelli said. "We'll start with Pablo on day one, Joe and Bailey sometime early and we'll discuss what the rest of the orders and shapes and things like that look like.”

Baldelli didn't name Chris Paddack during that off-the-cuff remark, but it sounds like Paddack will get the inside track on the fourth starting gig. That just leaves one. Woods Richardson will have to separate himself from Festa, Zebby Matthews, and more.

The other options for the team’s fifth rotation spot have plenty of upside, even if they have less big-league experience than Woods Richardson. Festa leads the pack, armed with a mid- to upper-90s fastball and a slider that has shown huge promise. He made 14 appearances with the Twins last season and flashed the ability to generate swings and misses, though refining his command will be key. Matthews emerged as one of the system’s biggest risers, displaying elite strike-throwing ability (7 walks in 97 IP) while carving up hitters at multiple levels. His mix of polish and control could give him a legitimate shot if the Twins value a steady presence at the back of the rotation.

Beyond those two, Marco Raya and Travis Adams remain intriguing but slightly less plausible options. Raya possesses some of the best pure stuff in the system, but workload concerns have followed him throughout his professional career. The Twins have been careful with his innings, and it’s unclear if they’d entrust him with a full starter’s workload right away. Adams doesn’t have the same level of prospect hype, but the Twins thought highly enough of him to add him to the 40-man roster in November to shield him from December's Rule 5 Draft. His ability to generate weak contact and limit damage makes him a dark-horse candidate. The competition among these young pitchers will be one of the most compelling storylines of camp.

Woods Richardson earned some trust last year. He should get the first shot in the team’s rotation, but it sure looks like he'll have to seize his opportunity, rather than having it offered to him. He’s out to prove himself again, and that might help to drive the entire pitching staff to improve. 

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Does Woods Richardson deserve the final rotation spot based on his 2024 performance? Leave a comment and start the discussion.

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[Cory Engelhardt]

I’d be really surprised if Paddack is just given a spot ahead of SWR, or Festa, to be honest. Hope he can do well obviously, but the young arms showed more than he did last year. Plus with Rocco not mentioning him, that answers the question for me.

 

[Rosterman]

Unless Paddack is absolutely horrible, he wins a spot.

SWR gets to show that he has grown since last season. The rotation is his job to lose. He was overworked in the end last season, should've been cut down bigtime the last few starts. But should be able to throw a full season in 2025.

Festa and Matthews are on the cusp, so the Twins look reaaaaaal good in the rotation department, with 2-3 others available for spot starts.

At worst, SWR still has options. But, Twins, please stick to using Varland in relief... long relief.

 

 

 

[Linus]

Paddack will be in there as he is under contract.  Sim should be the choice even though Festa has more upside Sim gives us a better chance to win the first part of the season.  As we know injuries will solve this problem soon enough.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

45 minutes ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

I’d be really surprised if Paddack is just given a spot ahead of SWR, or Festa, to be honest. Hope he can do well obviously, but the young arms showed more than he did last year. Plus with Rocco not mentioning him, that answers the question for me.

 

This! It had better be a meritocracy

[twinstalker]

I would think he'd have an inside track on the 4th spot (but calling it the 5th spot because).  Does he deserve the inside track?  Of course.  Does he deserve the actual spot?  Well, not yet, of course, we've got six weeks of spring training.

[Parfigliano]

1 hour ago, Rosterman said:

Unless Paddack is absolutely horrible, he wins a spot.

SWR gets to show that he has grown since last season. The rotation is his job to lose. He was overworked in the end last season, should've been cut down bigtime the last few starts. But should be able to throw a full season in 2025.

Festa and Matthews are on the cusp, so the Twins look reaaaaaal good in the rotation department, with 2-3 others available for spot starts.

At worst, SWR still has options. But, Twins, please stick to using Varland in relief... long relief.

 

 

 

Totally agree with Varland in the BP.

[AceWrigley]

I would think SWR has the inside track at least. In his 28 starts last year, he gave up more than 3 runs only 4 times. I though he did a real good job of competing and giving the Twins a chance to win almost every time out as the team went 17-11 in games he started.

[DocBauer]

Rocco listed Paddack as one of the 4 starters in one conversation but held off on naming the #5 spot. SWR ran out of gas late. But before he did, he was actually improving and showing confidence and enthusiasm on the mound, as if he really understood that he belonged. 

He's got to be the favorite based on what he did last season. But I don't know that he should be handed a spot. What if Festa...who has more upside...has the better spring? I think it comes down to those 2, with the "loser" being next in line when someone is needed. And at some point, they're going to need additional arms. It's not an "if", it's always a "when" for every club.

[TheLeviathan]

Absolutely not.

He's the team's 4th starter.  Others are battling for 5.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

18 minutes ago, TheLeviathan said:

Absolutely not.

He's the team's 4th starter.  Others are battling for 5.

You could make a case for Festa to be ahead of Paddack too. More WAR with 33% fewer innings pitched.

[Old Twins Hat]

1 hour ago, Richie the Rally Goat said:

This! It had better be a meritocracy

Yeah, it is a meritocracy. 

However we can put Paddock in a positive light. let's get that done so he can bring back something in trade.

[HerbieFan]

I think by the end of the year, SWR and Festa both make a lot more starts than Paddock.  It's a long season...Paddock will be in the rotation to start the year.  Festa will be in St.Paul IMO.  That's fine...he'll get plenty of opportunities once injuries start to set in.

[tony&rodney]

Certainly Simeon Woods Richardson has earned the right to claim one of the 5 starting pitcher slots based on last year. We should also agree to say that Pablo Lopez, Bailey Ober, and Joe Ryan have earned a slot as well. The answer for the final rotation spot depends on a couple of factors. First would be general health and how each of the pitchers aiming to be starters this year look come the end of March. There is the statement we always hear - "these things have a way of sorting themselves out". If all look fine we go to a second idea - do the Twins play to win from Opening Day. If the players take the field based on their contract status, as in who is going to earn more money in 2025, we are certain right now of the decision. 

A few have mentioned merit. Do we have any evidence that this is important to the team's roster decisions? Are options so important that they must be used unless or until an injury requires a promotion? Consider that since the current front office came aboard there have been two Twins to receive a vote for Rookie of the Year. We might suggest that this means it is difficult to break into a lineup or gain a roster position when the team is so competitive and clearly has so many superior players. Except, what about Cleveland? Other teams?

Based purely on performance from last season we know that Woods Richardson started 28 games and allowed fewer hits than innings pitched in all but 10 games with 4 of the last games of the year accounting for his double digit number. Paddack started 17 games and had 9 games where the hits exceeded the innings pitched. David Festa started 13 games and allowed more hits than innings on 4 occasions. Looking over the numbers, whether using ERA, WHIP, BA, OPS, etc., the data lines up pretty much the same way. From a visual standpoint Festa has the best stuff, Woods Richardson is confounding to hit, and Paddack is good at times but inconsistent. Woods Richardson entered his final start of the year with an ERA of 4.00 and he was below a 4.00 ERA all season until mid September. Festa bombed his first two starts, but was below a 4.00 ERA collectively in his next 12 outings.  Paddack had a number of excellent starts spaced throughout the season and in his final start on July 14 he managed to bring his ERA below 5.00 for the year (4.99).

The final decision rests with the front office and we can be pretty sure that something comes up in the next 5 weeks that directs the final rotation choices and eliminates all conversation on what to do.

However, based strictly on a choice to win games, the merit system is still the best idea and as of right now Paddack comes in third in nearly any type of analysis of performance directed to helping a team win games. Of course ..... options ..... for later in the season .... young guys should wait .... blah, blah, blah. 

[bean5302]

I think injuries could easily dictate the rotation. Also, have to look at flexibility in terms of rostering. Both Simeon Woods Richardson and David Festa have options. Chris Paddack and Eiberson Castellano do not have options the Twins can use. The bullpen appears to be bursting at the seams as well. There are 21 pitchers on the 40 man, LOL.

SP - Pablo Lopez (no options)
SP - Joe Ryan (3 options)
SP - Bailey Ober (1 option)
SP - Chris Paddack (no options)
SP - Eiberson Castalleno - (no options, potential bullpen candidate)
-------------------------------------------
SP - Simeon Woods Richardson (1 option)
SP - David Festa (3 options)
SP - Zebby Matthews (3 options)
SP - Marco Raya (3 options)
SP - Travis Adams (3 options)

RP - Jhoan Duran (1 option)
RP - Griffin Jax (2 options)
RP - Danny Coulombe (no options)
RP - Brock Stewart (no options)
RP - Michael Tonkin (no options)
RP - Cole Sands (1 option)
RP - Jorge Alcala (2 options)
RP - Matt Canterino (1 option)
------------------------------------------
RP - Justin Topa (2 options)
RP - Louie Varland (1 option)
RP - Kody Funderburk (2 options)

There will be injuries. Brock Stewart is questionable to be ready opening day based on comments already. It's tough to say how things work out.

[bean5302]

2 hours ago, Old Twins Hat said:

... Paddock...

 

1 hour ago, HerbieFan said:

...Paddock...

Paddack

[Dman]

I think that 5th starter spot is SWR's to lose at this point. He pitched well last year until later in the season.  It feels like he has the inside track and with only 1 option left to Festa's 3 I think they send Festa down to start the year.

Festa has a small MLB sample size but you can make the argument that he is the better pitcher of the two as his K rate is better and his stuff appears better, but it still feels like he could use some refinement and I think it makes some sense to make sure he gets off to a good start at AAA where there isn't as much pressure.  It feels like he could have a slightly better three pitch mix or add another pitch to keep hitters off balance. 

Also if you are playing the long game it wouldn't hurt to slow play him a little bit to try an keep an extra year of control.  If Festa continues to pitch well and improve its just a matter of time before he cracks the top 5 IMO.  Still baring a dominant spring he looks like the odd man out to start the season to me.

[terrydactyls]

yes

[nicksaviking]

13 hours ago, Richie the Rally Goat said:

You could make a case for Festa to be ahead of Paddack too. More WAR with 33% fewer innings pitched.

You are missing the two stats most important to this organization though. Paddack is the leader in number of birthdays and the most money owed.

[bean5302]

4 minutes ago, nicksaviking said:

...Paddock...

Paddack

[bean5302]

Simeon Woods Richardson's stuff didn't look great last year, and the scouting reports appeared to be catching up to him. He also apparently wore down despite not throwing that many innings.

Starting on 8/27, his velocity dropped off quite a bit. That was after 13.1 innings (AAA) + 112.1 (MLB) innings. A 23 year old guy who has been a professional for 7 years and had thrown over 100 innings the previous two years wouldn't normally be expected to run into fatigue like that. Still, SWR added about 4mph to his fastball last year so his body might just have needed some time to adapt so mulligan on the conditioning, I guess.

SWR first 9 starts, avg. velo = 93.0 mph, ERA 3.05, xFIP, 4.47 <-- meh
SWR next 13 starts, avg. velo = 93.5 mph, ERA 4.10, xFIP, 4.24 <-- okay, #4/5ish?
SWR last 6 starts, avg. velo = 92.1 mph, ERA 6.75, xFIP, 5.72 <-- offfffda

While the common perception around these parts seems to be starters don't go 6.0+ innings very much anymore, that's not been true when I've looked at most teams/starters. SWR doesn't pitch deep because he struggles to throw strikes. He went 6.0+ only 7 times in his first 20 starts with the Twins.

First 22 games (doesn't include hypothesized fatigue starts) - 85.8 pitches per start, 5.11 innings per start
6.0+ Innings 35%
5.0+ Innings 55%
<5.0 Innings 45%

Looking at MLB averages for starter with 140+ innings last year
Carlos Rodon - 96.9 pitches per start, 5.46 innings per start (bottom 25%)
6.0+ Innings 47%
5.0+ Innings 75%
<5.0 Innings 25%

Bailey Ober - 87.0 pitches per start (bottom 12%), 5.76 innings per start
6.0+ Innings 65%
5.0+ Innings 84%
<5.0 Innings 16%

SWR just wasn't efficient throwing strikes, but he had plus location as he put his pitches where they needed to be. He just didn't have any plus "stuff." Here are his Stuff+ grades
Fastball 77 (35 grade)
Slider 95 (45 grade)
Curve 90 (45 grade)
Change 107 (55 grade)
Location 106 (60 grade, less spread for location)

Basically, what I'm saying is SWR didn't earn his results early in the season. He was lucky and the scouting reports weren't out yet. He's not going to be an efficient pitcher because he has to be careful where he places his pitches or they'll get walloped because they don't move particularly well so he's not the kind of guy who can be expected to pitch deeper into games. It's great SWR was able to "save the season" as people will put it, but he didn't save it by being great, he saved it with a little luck and just not being horrible until he tired out. I don't think he's done enough to deserve a spot in the opening day rotation. He does deserve a shot at competing for it, though.

[Mike Sixel]

Is this even a question? He was quite good last year. I have no idea how this is debatable. 

[h2oface]

It is yet to be seen for this Management group to acutally pick the players that perform the best in ST universally. Sure, the money players and a couple that are going to be money players are in no matter what. If you have an option, it matters not that you earn the nod out of camp. If you are in a supposed competition, the real decision has already been made. Hell, there was no way Wallner should have made the 26 out of camp last year by ST performance, but there he was, and he continued his oh-fers with K after K into the season, not even close to hitting a ball, and a month in AAA. There is not doubt in my mind that, other than injury changing it, this will not be a meritocracy by ST performance, and it is already decided, whatever it is, including the pitching staff, regardless of what the management says to the press. 

[Doctor Wu]

5 hours ago, bean5302 said:

There will be injuries.

That's what my crystal ball is telling me too. Unfortunately, it won't name names. 

[CRF]

He's #4.

[Fatbat]

6 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

Is this even a question? He was quite good last year. I have no idea how this is debatable. 

Its debatable for a few reasons that don't diminish his talent. The team has other rising stars that might just steal the spot from him.  There is also just so many spots and IF the bullpen is full of healthy horses, Eberson Castellano may be in the 5 hole to see what he has for a couple starts. If EC flames out, next man up and EC goes back to bean town. 
with so many good young arms, there will be plenty of roster flexibility and its a long season. Starts in July/Aug/Sept mean more than April/May

[dxpavelka]

Obviously he deserves first shot and obviously he needs to seize the opportunity.  Sometimes these things pretty much write themselves. 

[TwinsDr2021]

Paddack will be given multiple opportunities to stick in the rotation, the Twins have proven this is their MO, I think SWR will be given a spot as well unless his mechanics fall apart this spring and using his last option also isn't how the Twins work, I think the Twins would use the IR before his option, because if they use his option this year and next year he still isn't good, they would end up just cutting him. (That also isn't how the Twins operate)

[mikelink45]

Just to get my vote in - I do not know what the team will decide but I still trade Paddack and I have SWR and Festa as regular rotation starters.

[DJL44]

11 hours ago, Old Twins Hat said:

Yeah, it is a meritocracy.

However we can put Paddock in a positive light. let's get that done so he can bring back something in trade.

It is a meritocracy, however it isn't?

Bad teams who don't want to contend will play veterans hoping for a bounceback season so they can trade them. If they are playing Paddack just to pump-and-dump his trade value, then they're not trying to contend.