The Minnesota Twins Should Explore Trading Jhoan Durán This Offseason

[Matthew Taylor]

As the offseason approaches, the Minnesota Twins face critical decisions about their roster and payroll. One intriguing question looms: should they consider trading one of their most dynamic arms, in closer Jhoan Durán? While his talent is undeniable, the right move could set up the team for long-term success.

Image courtesy of © Brad Rempel-Imagn Images

Jhoan Durán has been a force in the Minnesota Twins' bullpen ever since his 2022 debut. His 2.59 ERA and 31.9% strikeout rate over three seasons showcase his dominance, and his triple-digit velocity has made him one of the most exciting pitchers in baseball. Durán, who regularly touches 103-104 MPH, quickly cemented himself as one of the most electric arms in baseball.

However, with all his success, it's worth considering if this offseason might be the right time for the Twins to explore trading him.

One of the biggest reasons for this line of thinking is that Durán's performance, while still excellent, has shown some signs of decline. His ERA has crept up in each of his three seasons, from 1.86 as a rookie to 2.45 in 2023 and a less sparkling 3.64 in 2024. His strikeout rate has stepped down from 33.5% to 32.9% to 29.0%. At the same time, his fastball velocity, though still among the best in the league, dipped from an average of 101.8 MPH in 2023 to 100.5 MPH in 2024. These are still impressive numbers, but the drop in both effectiveness and velocity is something that has to raise concerns about how long Durán can continue to dominate the league.

Beyond his performance, the Twins are in an interesting position with their bullpen depth. Griffin Jax has emerged as the most dominant arm in the Minnesota relief corps, and other dynamic hurlers are knocking on the door. Cole Sands took a significant leap in 2024, turning into a reliable option in the late innings. Louie Varland could be transitioning to a full-time bullpen role, where he has already flashed his potential as a back-end piece. Add in the potential returns of Jorge Alcalá, Justin Topa, and Brock Stewart, and the Twins have a wealth of options.

That depth makes Durán a valuable and viable trade chip. Even with his slight dip in performance, Durán remains an elite arm, ranking near the top of the league in fastball velocity, whiff percentage, and strikeout-to-walk ratio. While fans might be concerned about his rising ERA or declining velocity, his stock remains relatively high. Trading him now could allow the Twins to get ahead of a potential downturn, a risk that always looms with relievers, who are known for their volatility.

Look no further than the 2023 trade deadline for proof of what a top-tier reliever can bring back in a deal. The Padres dealt Tanner Scott, a 30-year-old on an expiring contract, for a slew of high-upside prospects. Now, imagine what the Twins could fetch for a 26-year-old Durán, who is set to make around $3 million next year and is only entering his arbitration years.

And that's another factor in the trade discussion: salary. While $3 million is not a huge number in isolation, the Twins' bullpen is full of arms set to make similar amounts, and that adds up quickly. With a payroll that likely won't be increasing, the Twins will need to find ways to cut costs to make upgrades elsewhere. Trading Duran, who will be the most expensive bullpen arm, might be the most logical way to achieve that.

So, while it might seem shocking to even consider trading the triple-digit terror, it's a move the Twins should seriously explore this offseason. With a deep bullpen, rising salary concerns, and the potential for a significant return, now might be the perfect time for the Twins to cash in on one of their most valuable assets.

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How would you feel about the Twins trading Jhoan Durán? Would it be a savvy move to bolster the future of the team, or too big a gamble? Let us know in the comments!

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[old nurse]

Scott was traded for a slew of prospect is true. Years ago Craig Kimbrel was traded twice for prospects. I really can’t say there were gems there. The FO did well with trading for Alcala and Duran., they might do well with Henriquez some day.. Just don’t expect  a whole lot out of a trade

[Karbo]

If they would trade him, which I don't believe they will, he should bring in a haul. Problem with that is they will then probably need to pay more than 3 mil. I don't see too many teams giving up top, ready for the majors type players that would still be on rookie price contracts.

[dxpavelka]

Should trade him from the bullpen to the starting rotation.

[Guest]

These let's-trade articles....  A guy's metrics slip a hair and we should explore a trade?  We're supposed to sell-high, not low, when a team could get more in return.  Explore a trade?  For whom?  [cue the comments on how many angels on the head of a pin] And then watch Duran become the next Clase for somebody else who figures out how to tweak him back to 2023 form?  How 'bout, "let's coach him up"?  

[Russ]

If the price is right.  You also need a good evaluation on what you want in return.  Don't want players you are injured or injury prone.  The Twins seem to trade starting players for reserves.  Castoffs seem to play better when they leave the Twins.

[rv78]

Word going around is that Jax, who you think is the next heir-apparent to Duran and the closer role, wants to go back to being a starter, If that would happen then you can't, don't, shouldn't, trade Duran. Even though it is highly unlikely they convert Jax back to a starter, something the Twins just never do, I keep Duran. If we see his performance is slipping, everyone else does too, so the big haul you think he'll bring won't be anything close to what you hope for. On top of that I don't trust Falvey to get the players, or player needed to help this team in return. 

[Patzky]

40 minutes ago, Minderbinder said:

These let's-trade articles....  A guy's metrics slip a hair and we should explore a trade?  We're supposed to sell-high, not low, when a team could get more in return.  Explore a trade?  For whom?  [cue the comments on how many angels on the head of a pin] And then watch Duran become the next Clase for somebody else who figures out how to tweak him back to 2023 form?  How 'bout, "let's coach him up"?  

It's shock journalism. Trade Duran, Correa, Pablo and Ober! Save money and get prospects!

 

Thank goodness we can depend on beating the White Sox..

[Jkeady12]

42 minutes ago, Minderbinder said:

These let's-trade articles....  A guy's metrics slip a hair and we should explore a trade?  We're supposed to sell-high, not low, when a team could get more in return.  Explore a trade?  For whom?  [cue the comments on how many angels on the head of a pin] And then watch Duran become the next Clase for somebody else who figures out how to tweak him back to 2023 form?  How 'bout, "let's coach him up"?  

Agreed! So far we should trade our entire team per these articles...

[Trov]

Every player should be explored for the right deal.  I mean if a team is willing to toss a ton of good prospects for him sure it would be worth trading him.  However, there is little need to do it right now he is still under control for a couple seasons.  He is on a bit of a down year, and hopefully he bounces back next year.  You can never have too much good pitching.  

I also would never count Brock Stewert in as a reliable guy.  He had a good short stretch with us, but between injuries he has not bee good at times too. He does not have some long term history of being good either. Too often people see a hot stretch of a pen arm as something to count on for years. 

[twinfan]

Ok. First it's trade Ober and/or Ryan. Now it's trade Duran. Who is writing this nonsense? Are we the Marlins of 2024? Do we need a complete rebuild with prospects/suspects who may never pan out? Why would we ever trade any of the players who have gotten us as far as we went in '24? Oh, I know. You're going to say how I proposed (and still do) trading Buxton this season. I believe we can get the most for him compared to the others and he still won't play more than 80-100 games for whoever gets him. 

Anyway, I will go on record as being dead set against trading either Ober, Ryan or Duran. I would tell Duran to quit throwing so many sliders which have gotten him in trouble and would not have him pitch more than an inning in relief but I wouldn't trade him. Just 1 man's opinion.

[Whitey333]

Considering the Twins aren't that good all options should be open.  The Twins have missed the playoffs 3 of the past 4 years and twice by total collapses.  Duran is slipping but is still good overall.  But 9 losses for a closer isn't good.  I think they should dump Correa and Buxton.  And do so this offseason.

[Stew]

 No!!!!!!

[Linus]

The “depth” you cite behind Jax consists of one guy - Cole Sands. Counting on the rest of that injured inconsistent bunch is how you end up with crappy bullpens. 

[Twodogs]

25 minutes ago, twinfan said:

Ok. First it's trade Ober and/or Ryan. Now it's trade Duran. Who is writing this nonsense? Are we the Marlins of 2024? Do we need a complete rebuild with prospects/suspects who may never pan out? Why would we ever trade any of the players who have gotten us as far as we went in '24? Oh, I know. You're going to say how I proposed (and still do) trading Buxton this season. I believe we can get the most for him compared to the others and he still won't play more than 80-100 games for whoever gets him. 

Anyway, I will go on record as being dead set against trading either Ober, Ryan or Duran. I would tell Duran to quit throwing so many sliders which have gotten him in trouble and would not have him pitch more than an inning in relief but I wouldn't trade him. Just 1 man's opinion.

I thought at one point in time that Duran called out the coaching staff on pitch selection.  Not sure if Duran wanted to throw more fastballs or more off speed, but I remember after a meltdown he went public that did not agree with the pitch selections he was given.  So Duran may actually agree with you on that.

[Fire Dan Gladden]

Of all the potential trade candidates the Twins might discuss, trading Duran is the one I could get behind.

I am not a huge believer in the super consistency of relievers.  There are maybe 10 RPs in the league that are elite, the next level being "good to very good" depending on the year.  His stuff may be electric, but Duran has shown to be very hittable at times.  Putting the leadoff guy on base what... 35% of the time?  Not exactly the MO of a lights out reliever.

I am sure there is a team out there needing a closer that would overpay for Duran.  Moving Duran for the right pieces would be the right decision.

[Otaknam]

If the always injured Topa and Stewart are the “wealth of options” to fill a BP void after trading Duran, the team is in deep trouble. The real issue is Twins have Correa, Buxton, and Lopez on big contracts, which means they must try to compete rather than rebuild. If they continue on a fools errand to dump salary, it will come from the fringes unless someone is willing to take on the contract of Correa, Buxton, or Lopez. Lopez is the most trade worthy piece, given his age, success as a mid rotation guy, and contract. But that would destabilize the rotation even more, which at least has Ober and Ryan. Finding a way to trade Vasquez and his unearned $10 million contract would be a start. 

[tony&rodney]

Twins Daily exists to put out stories concerning the Twins. Thus it makes perfect sense that a series of articles explores specific players and the possibility of trading them. A series of articles also looks at prospects from time to time along with other ideas. These articles are not demands, just food for thought.

If one does not believe that any changes should occur with the roster, that is a preference. There is nothing wrong with that position, but just ignore these articles if that is your position. I cannot understand why anyone would disparage an article that is just forwarding a thought.

Does Duran have value to another team? I would argue yes. He also has value to the Twins. A trade would work if the right name(s) returns. Arizona comes to mind as does Boston.

One thing seems clear to me - if the Twins roll out the same roster next season we can all expect a similar end result.

[thelanges5]

Pitching depth? I have seen this reasoning in the articles for trading RP and SP. Did I watch a different team collapse in 2024? Pitching was a major problem in 2024.

 

[bean5302]

Duran is not bringing in a haul. He'll bring in a #5ish org prospect, maybe, but more likely a combo of like #8 and a #10 or something like that as teams are loathe to part with their best prospects for anything other than a truly elite reliever during a playoff push.

His salary this year is going to jump to around $4MM this year which starts to eat a lot into his surplus value. If this was 2 years ago, Duran would bring a haul because there was still some ceiling built into him, plus he had a couple years of league minimum salary ahead. Duran is maybe a 1.2-1.3 WAR type of pitcher. Definitely valuable in the 'pen, but a far cry from a guy like Mason Miller.

Considering the Twins' total lack of quality depth in the bullpen, it seems like that's a poor choice to trade away.

[JD-TWINS]

1 hour ago, Otaknam said:

If the always injured Topa and Stewart are the “wealth of options” to fill a BP void after trading Duran, the team is in deep trouble. The real issue is Twins have Correa, Buxton, and Lopez on big contracts, which means they must try to compete rather than rebuild. If they continue on a fools errand to dump salary, it will come from the fringes unless someone is willing to take on the contract of Correa, Buxton, or Lopez. Lopez is the most trade worthy piece, given his age, success as a mid rotation guy, and contract. But that would destabilize the rotation even more, which at least has Ober and Ryan. Finding a way to trade Vasquez and his unearned $10 million contract would be a start. 

To start, there is no way to trade the Vazquez contract. Him being moved would necessitate the Twins covering at least half of the $$ - no upside there. Unfortunate.

I think you are right on the concern of relying on Stewart & Topa. One of them may work out……maybe portions of each over the year? 

Topa - Stewart - Funderburk - Moran - Winder - Headrick - Henriquez - Blewett ………these guys need to cover 2-3 spots in Pen.

Jax - Sands - Varland - Paddack - Duran  - Alcala are a very solid core!

[AKTwinsFan]

And what closer can they get besides using Jax in the bullpen again and sacrificing starting pitching. That and only 3 mil for a solid "closer" is a bargain. Just move Jax to starting rotation and have Stewart as a setup guy. Move on from theilbar.

[Finfineman]

Wait for the new owners.  There could be a whole different situation with the right owners.  And Duran is a generational talent.  You wouldnt trade him unless it was a very good starter, not a bunch of prospects.

[tony&rodney]

10 minutes ago, Bigfork Twins Guy said:

Why would we want to trade a very good closer who is under control for multiple seasons and at a reasonable cost?

The only reason to trade any player is if it improves the overall roster and increases the chances of a better record next season. Thus, any player can be traded, depending on the return. The goal is not to win the trade but to create a stronger roster in order to compete.

Last season, the Twins had similar win-loss records versus teams above even (.500) as these teams: Boston, Texas, Toronto, LA Angels, Pittsburgh, Miami, and Colorado. The Twins also were above even in one run games. They crushed the AL West. 

There is work to do and I suggest some change. 

[LA Vikes Fan]

I agree that the Twins should be open to trading almost anyone on the roster for the right return. The issue is what constitutes the "right return". The premise of the article appears to be that we would trade Duran for high-end prospects and thus save money as well as potentially improving future years. I didn't see anything in the article that Duran could or should be traded either individually or as part of a package for a middle of the order bat or quality starter.

I think this one is simple. If you can trade Duran alone or with a package that might even include someone as good as Keaschall and get a true middle of the order bat or middle of the rotation starter with multiple years of control at relatively low cost then you should absolutely trade him. Otherwise, no. He is more valuable to the Twins as a closer during the upcoming years where the expensive veterans are still hopefully nearer their prime than their decline than he is as trade bait to get even 2 or 3 of another team's top 20 prospects. So in short, trade him for something that makes the 2025 Twins demonstrably better like a middle of the order bat or quality starter? Sign me up. Trade him for prospects? Really bad idea IMHO.

[Vanimal46]

2 hours ago, Fire Dan Gladden said:

Of all the potential trade candidates the Twins might discuss, trading Duran is the one I could get behind.

I am not a huge believer in the super consistency of relievers.  There are maybe 10 RPs in the league that are elite, the next level being "good to very good" depending on the year.  His stuff may be electric, but Duran has shown to be very hittable at times.  Putting the leadoff guy on base what... 35% of the time?  Not exactly the MO of a lights out reliever.

I am sure there is a team out there needing a closer that would overpay for Duran.  Moving Duran for the right pieces would be the right decision.

Agreed. Relievers are the kings of SSS. He’s had arm injuries before and they can pop up again. If Duran, or a package of players including Duran, can fetch a young controllable SP or a middle of the order bat, we have to consider it. 

[Bodie]

3 hours ago, Linus said:

The “depth” you cite behind Jax consists of one guy - Cole Sands. Counting on the rest of that injured inconsistent bunch is how you end up with crappy bullpens. 

Seem to remember just a year ago (actually less) that we were looking at an elite bullpen, no questions booked, for this just completed season....

[tony&rodney]

20 minutes ago, LA VIkes Fan said:

Trade him for prospects? Really bad idea IMHO.

I mostly agree with you but there are prospects and there are prospects. I'm looking at what Jackson Merrill did for San Diego this year. No, San Diego is not trading Merrill but what is out there? I don't have the answer, just thoughts like others. I do want to see the Twins make some changes to what is a slow and poor defensive team. In a deal that makes the team potentially better, anyone can go.

[Beast]

Now we should trade away a $3M bullpen arm for financial reasons?

Good grief.  Just shut this thing down.  It’s radioactive from ownership all the way down to the media/fan base.

Maybe you trade him to get ahead of his arm expiration date (which may already be here).  But, finances entering the conversation is asinine.

 

[KBJ1]

Prospects aren't going to help us win in 25 or 26. We already have prospects.

What we don't have is SP and a 5 tool LF - middle of the order bat.

Jax as a starter might make sense .

Proven Bullpen performers (not injured ones) are way cheaper than SP.

The Twins tried to go the bullpen route over SP last year and it might have worked had it not been for injuries. 

They don't have $$ for SP next year either, so trading cheap bullpen options for prospects makes no sense. For a SP like Maeda in 2020, maybe.

But if Jax can become a $20M value SP, spend $10M on the bullpen. If, for once, they all stay healthy, it would be a lights out bullpen.

And I would still rather have had Ryan Pressley over Alcala & Celestino.