Will the Minnesota Twins Trade Joe Ryan or Bailey Ober This Offseason?

[Nick Nelson]

As the front office strives to create future payroll flexibility while also finding ways to improve the roster this offseason, these two quality starters who are about to get more expensive could be on the block.

Image courtesy of Matt Krohn and Jeffrey Becker–Imagn Images

The Twins front office, restructured following the departure of Thad Levine, faces a key challenge this offseason: get better with almost literally zero spending flexibility. To find any room for additions, Derek Falvey and Co. will likely need to get creative, and that might mean moving some of their existing commitments to clear up space moving forward. 

Pablo López, who will see his salary jump from $8 million to $21 million next season, is a name that's been thrown around as a potential trade candidate. There have also been suggestions the Twins could try to unload the remaining contracts of Carlos Correa or Byron Buxton, if one or both would be willing to waive their no-trade clauses.

In my mind, the Twins shouldn't be looking to deal any of those three. In part it's because I believe López, Correa and Buxton make up a viable veteran nucleus for a championship team. The front office should be building around these prime-aged stars, not dismantling them. All three players had their issues this past season, but at least they ended in a good place. Let's run it back behind them. Much was invested to get these pieces in place.

There's also the question of trade value and expected return. Even if you can talk Correa or Buxton into waiving their NTCs, and you can actually find a taker for their risk-laden contracts, are you really get anything of substance in return? Unlikely. López certainly would command a respectable package, but he hardly seems like a sell-high candidate: He just posted an ERA over 4.00 for the first time in five years, and he's owed about $65 million over the next three seasons, having put his low-cost days behind him.

If the front office wants to thread the needle of finding financial relief through trades that actually have a chance to make the team better, I believe they'd be far better off shopping Bailey Ober or Joe Ryan. 

Would they actually be willing to lose a cornerstone from the 2024 rotation? It might come down to how much these controllable arms could net, and how much Falvey believes in his pitching pipeline.

The Case for Trading Ober or Ryan
Proven, cost-controlled starting pitching is perhaps the most valued commodity in baseball. I suspect we might see an even greater appetite for it than usual this offseason, as teams across the league look to scale back spending and balk at a free-agent market full of pricey question marks.  

Trading Ober or Ryan wouldn't be so much about short-term cost savings. They are both first-time arbitration eligible this offseason, estimated by MLB Trade Rumors to be in line for $4.3 million and $3.8 million in 2025, respectively. Those price tags make them appealing to prospective trade partners relative to López, who will earn about five times as much. 

Given what they're up against from a payroll perspective, even an extra $4 million or so would be quite useful for the Twins front office this offseason. But the financial implications of trading Ober or Ryan are more about future years beyond 2025. With good seasons, their salaries would escalate into the $10 million range in year two of arbitration, and then up from there in year three. The Twins will still be on the hook with López, Correa and Buxton for about $70 million in 2026 and 2027, making those increases difficult to absorb.

By trading Ober or Ryan now, the Twins would be getting out in front of this coming payroll crunch while theoretically maximizing their value as trade pieces. Presently both are under team control for three more years, inexpensive in the short term, and – most importantly – coming off very good seasons.

Ober set career bests in innings (179), fWAR (2.9) and strikeout rate (26.9%), performing like a frontline starter outside of a few hiccups among his 31 starts. His 3.24 xERA ranked fifth-best among all major-league starters. For a good stretch of the summer, he was one of the most effective pitchers in all of baseball. 

 

Ryan missed the final two months after suffering a season-ending shoulder injury. Obviously, that's a consideration in assessing his trade value. But the right-hander generally has a track record of very good health, and there seems to be no reason to think the teres major strain he sustained in August will be a long-term concern. It didn't require surgery and, in fact, based on the initial recovery timeline of roughly two months, he might be fully healed by now. Any team trading for Ryan should be able to gain a solid level of confidence in his physical state.

They also should feel confident in what he can do when healthy and on the mound. Ryan set a career high in fWAR this year (3.1) despite making only 23 starts. Still only 28, he has been excellent since joining the MLB ranks, holding opponents to a .223/.275/.409 slash line while averaging 10 strikeouts and two walks per nine innings. He's been worthy of All-Star consideration in each of the past two seasons.

 

Naturally, all these factors that make Ober and Ryan attractive to other teams also signify why losing them would hurt the Minnesota Twins. When at their best this year, the consistency of the team's rotation was arguably their biggest strength, and these hurlers were crucial ingredients in that. The idea of succeeding without one of them hinges on the legitimacy of the organization's pitching pipeline.

Between Simeon Woods Richardson, David Festa, Zebby Matthews, Marco Raya, Andrew Morris, Cory Lewis and Connor Prielipp, the system is ripe with intriguing and impressive young pitchers who are nearing major-league readiness if not already there. 

Giving up the proven impact of an Ober or Ryan, and turning the reins over to these largely unproven youngsters, entails a significant amount of risk. But it's not just about clearing payroll – you're going to get back legitimate talent in exchange for one of these starters. What kind of talent? Well, as one point of comparison, when the Miami Marlins traded Pablo López at a similar stage a couple years ago, they got back an All-Star, Silver Slugger, and fringe MVP candidate. 

Trading Bailey Ober or Joe Ryan would not be a comfortable move, and maybe not a popular one. But as we think of the challenges and constraints that lie before the front office, these are the kinds of moves we're going to need to view within the realm of realistic possibilities. I'd almost say the odds are better than not that one gets dealt.

What are your thoughts on the matter? Would you be open to trading Ober or Ryan in the right deal? Or should the Twins be looking elsewhere in their efforts to shave payroll and find ways to improve? Let us know in the comments.

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[Cory Engelhardt]

They haven’t really historically traded players away who are coming off down or injured years. If you look at a player as an asset, it wouldn’t make sense to trade them when their value is lower than they think it should be.

I can’t see a scenario where Joe Ryan is traded away, unless they get value as if he were healthy the entire season.

I hope they don’t trade Ober either. But this clearly was his career year, at least so far. So for that reason only, I’d be less surprised if he were traded for a haul.

I don’t think either are traded though. They don’t have to cut payroll. 

[umterp23]

Not this year as the alienation of the fan base and this message board would explode.  The next narrative will be we are the A's of the midwest and $$ dumpster fire.  Zebby/Festa aren't ready for starting 5 to start the season and if the front office can't find $8MM to keep these two then you writing is on the wall

'26 the payroll ship might blow up and everyone is gone

[dxpavelka]

You named 7 potential replacements for the two cornerstone pitchers.  History says that three of the seven will flame out, two will be average, one above average and one MIGHT become a star.  Keep what you got.  Find a way.

[Doctor Wu]

I understand this sort of Tampa Bay model where you trade players before they enter free agency and try to capitalize on their value ... but I would be horrified if the Twins traded either Ryan or Ober this off-season. As Cory noted, Ryan's trade value is somewhat suppressed after his late season injury, so that alone would make it a bad move for the Twins. And yeah, Ober has ace potential and is still a bargain, so I can't see that happening either. I realize many people are shook up about the payroll limitations this coming season, but I don't think it's time to be off-loading our best players. Health permitting, we can still be a playoff team next season. 

[Major League Ready]

No way are they going to trade away cheap pitching.  Lopez, Ryan, and Ober are all free agents in 2028.  Trying to transition 3 SPs in one year is difficult to pull off.  I could see them trading one of them next year if Matthews and Festa get established.  This becomes even more likely if the other SP prospects in the upper levels continue to improve.  The Twins trading starting pitching from a position of strength would be a very welcome position indeed.

[Rod Carews Birthday]

I hate the idea of trading either of these two guys, but it would likely be the best way to get a pretty serious return in trade.  Whether that makes the team better depends on how well those young starters can take over the rotation spots. The fact that Lopez, Ober, and Ryan all become free agents at the same time is probably reason enough to do something about it, but I feel like we've tried for so long to have a decent rotation that trading one away would be very disappointing. 

[Reptevia]

Ober’s value will likely never be higher. This is what small market teams MUST do to remain competitive for division championships. Unfortunately, it’s the Twin’s turn. We can’t run the risk of Ober regressing or getting hurt. He needs to be traded this offseason, so the Twin’s can get a legitimate player to step into one of the many holes in the lineup. 

[tarheeltwinsfan]

Please no !

[Patzky]

1 hour ago, Doctor Wu said:

I understand this sort of Tampa Bay model where you trade players before they enter free agency and try to capitalize on their value ... but I would be horrified if the Twins traded either Ryan or Ober this off-season. As Cory noted, Ryan's trade value is somewhat suppressed after his late season injury, so that alone would make it a bad move for the Twins. And yeah, Ober has ace potential and is still a bargain, so I can't see that happening either. I realize many people are shook up about the payroll limitations this coming season, but I don't think it's time to be off-loading our best players. Health permitting, we can still be a playoff team next season. 

You're spot on. 

 

If you wanted to go full rebuild, sure, dump Pablo, Ryan, Ober, and Correa. The team isn't in a position where that's advisable or even necessary.  Is Simeon Woods Richardson really ready or able to be your *ace*?

Truthfully you could save money on a manger salary down the road and have Pablo be a player/manager. Really there's no better student of the game around Twins territory except perhaps Carlo Correa.

[HoskenPowell]

Needed 2 more starters LAST year , why get rid of the starting pitchers we DID have?

Trade Correa and trade Buck.

[Patzky]

12 minutes ago, Reptevia said:

Ober’s value will likely never be higher. This is what small market teams MUST do to remain competitive for division championships. Unfortunately, it’s the Twin’s turn. We can’t run the risk of Ober regressing or getting hurt. He needs to be traded this offseason, so the Twin’s can get a legitimate player to step into one of the many holes in the lineup. 

If that player comes at a salary twice Ober's it'll never happen. That's a valid concern right now. I can't envision a better 'cheap' investment right now for the Twins.

[Jeff K]

No!  Trade neither.  No!  Did I mention no?

[mluebker]

1 hour ago, umterp23 said:

…if the front office can't find $8MM to gkeep these two then you writing is on the wall

'26 the payroll ship might blow up and everyone is gone

Maybe it’s time to do that: keep Buxton and Correa because of their no-trade clauses, then clear out the rest and move the Saints to Target Field.

[thelanges5]

Please don’t trade young controllable arms. No such thing as too much pitching as we proved in 2024. 

[DJL44]

Trading either would signal that they don't intend to compete for the next 3 seasons. If they trade either, then there are 15 other players on the roster who should be dealt.

[jmlease1]

Trading Ryan or Ober would be the highest risk of all high risk propositions for this franchise. They would almost certainly bring the highest return of anyone not named Walker Jenkins, but would also blow a hole in the rotation that we might not be able to cover. You'd have to absolutely hit on the trade AND be sure that someone like Festa or Matthews is ready to replace their production from the jump next season, otherwise, this team isn't contending for anything.

(Which the Pohlads may not care that much about, but tossing the team into a rebuild spiral with plummeting attendance WILL drive down the price of the franchise by limiting the suitors. For every gazillionaire excited about being able to build their own thing there's 2 who would be saying "wait, we're going to suck for 3  years unless I take big losses out the gate? Hard pass.")

I don't think the salary saving this season makes it worth it and there's too much risk in selling on these starters without more confidence in the next wave. I like Festa, Matthews, Lewis, Morris, Raya, etc but I'll know a lot more where they're at after 2025. I'd say we're one season too early to consider moving them. especially because of the surrender optics.

[Otaknam]

A ridiculous idea to trade Ober, Ryan, or Lopez to save money. You can’t win without solid starting pitching, and these three are the foundation. For alienated Twins fans, which is now all of us, trading any of the three would be the final blow and lead us to stop supporting the team. As for the starting pitchers in the minors, I don’t see any number one or two starters in that group, based on their records so far. They all look like mid rotation starters at best. So please calm down about starters ready to make the jump to the ML rotation to replace proven starters. 

[roger]

Add me to those above who think this would be a terrible idea.  Maybe next year or the year after one gets moved.  But this winter? No.

[Doctor Gast]

Many people's solution to Twins' supposing problems is just to get rid of some salary to sign an expensive FA (ex. Goldsmidt) IMO that's nonsense. Keep our reasonable players especially those who are performing at prime positions & have chemistry with the club. Quit spending on frivolous salaries that don't help the club. Proven veteran SPs is always a need, why create another hole while not filling the old ones (like last season)? Keep them. There are other ways to cut if need be. 

[Blyleven2011]

2 hours ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

 

I don’t think either are traded though. They don’t have to cut payroll. 

I agree it is highly unlikely if either of Ober and Ryan are traded ....

My take they will listen to trade talks about Pablo Lopez  ...

They will also explore the possibility to trade Correa to further right size the ship , Correa in my opinion  is considering the notion to lift his no trade clause due to the unstableness of the organization  ...

I guess we'll see how the off season plays out ...

[David Maro]

The problem this team has is a FO who put all their eggs in 3 baskets.You now have over 50% of the payroll tied up in a pitcher who pitches every 5th day.And a SS and CF that can't stay on the field.They have not given the team what is needed to be successful.The whole team has had a issue with health and are now a year older.People want Santana and Castro gone when they were the only 2 available to play every day.The whole medical and conditioning staff needs to be replaced.The program that is being employed isn't working.

[Cory Engelhardt]

12 minutes ago, Blyleven2011 said:

I agree it is highly unlikely if either of Ober and Ryan are traded ....

My take they will listen to trade talks about Pablo Lopez  ...

They will also explore the possibility to trade Correa to further right size the ship , Correa in my opinion  is considering the notion to lift his no trade clause due to the unstableness of the organization  ...

I guess we'll see how the off season plays out ...

I'd be very surprised if any of Lopez/Ryan/Ober are traded. 

It came out around the deadline that they had listened on Duran. He is the guy that I would think could be on the block if they do get a good offer. 

[Jocko87]

Oh no, they are going to make more than 700k!

They are more expensive, but not actually expensive. 

This premise is insane. So much of the angst with the Pohlads come from creating fanatical scenarios like this and acting like it's something they would do rather than our imagination.

If it were to happen, we would be blown away by the return. That return would have salary too.

[tony&rodney]

The  rough estimate for 2025 using the current roster is $135 million. The larger issue in my opinion is a need for the Twins to improve their defense. Falvey was quite happy with the team he put together for 2024 and the Twins were good until they weren't. A big part of their demise (many other elements) was shoddy glove work. The question is whether Falvey believes the team needs change.

Ryan is unlikely to draw as much interest as Ober. Our big dude has improved steadily and looks like he is capable of getting even better. Ober is underrated in my book. The articles on Twins Daily explore ways to massage the roster for one reason or another. The idea of trading Ober (or Ryan) works if the return is a plug for the Twins current roster. I would suggest that further moves could be made as well. Looking at the Twins roster, it seems like some change is needed.

Just spitballing, would the Red Sox be interested in trading Jarren Duran for Bailey Ober and a couple of other players. This ignores a premise of the article, which is to reduce salary now and in the future, but strengthens a big weakness in the outfield and buys time until a few Twins prospects are ready for playing time.

[bean5302]

Every single time a trade conversation surrounding a popular Twins player is broached, there are people who make the argument somehow it would make fans revolt and not show up. I've never seen any proof of that. Year after Puckett, attendance increased. The year after Mauer left, attendance increased. Fans don't care. They just don't.

I'd actually be somewhat surprised if the Twins didn't trade one of Lopez, Ryan or Ober, and it's probably Lopez. I'd also be surprised if one of Ober or Ryan wasn't traded after this season. That's how the Rays work. If the Pohlad family (who is currently directing the franchise) wants to emulate the Rays, casting off Lopez is a real quick way to start. In regard to trade value, both Ryan and Ober are more valuable than Lopez right now, IMHO. 

If the Twins ship Ober or Ryan (and another piece) and come back with a legit cost controlled front end starter, it'd be a huge win for the team. Not sure who that cost controlled upper rotation guy would be, but it's just an example.

Given the depth the Twins have at starter in MiLB, and the ability to pick up a cheap reclamation project arm, along with the holes they have elsewhere, just sound strategy to me.

 

[chpettit19]

Every player should always be a trade candidate. Refusing to trade someone would be foolish. It's all about setting a realistic price for that player and then deciding if that trade would help the short and/or long-term health and success of your team. Should the Twins be shopping Ryan and Ober? Absolutely not. If they're in such dire straights that they need to worry about the salaries for those 2, things are far worse than any of us are imagining. But is there a reasonable trade that could be made for them that would help the team? Sure. Do I expect either of them to be traded? I have no idea.

I have no idea where this offseason is going to go. I don't think any of us should be confident in what Falvey is going to do. He shouldn't have been feeling super comfortable in his job stability with the Pohlads in charge, but knowing he may have a new boss on the way should make him even more nervous, and nervous can lead to desperate, and desperate can lead to moves that none of us see coming. 

My guess would be that neither of these guys are moved because there isn't a trade that would help the 2025 Twins by trading them. There are probably a lot of trades that could help the 2026 and beyond Twins, but Falvey is likely more focused on the current iteration of the team than he ever has been. Because of that, I don't see it as very likely that he's moving his cheap top-end starting pitching. Unless the Pohlads think it's a smart move for their attempt to sell the team, I don't see Falvey making a lot of future-focused moves. But I don't feel confident in predicting anything he'll do over the next 6ish months.

[tony&rodney]

13 minutes ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

It came out around the deadline that they had listened on Duran. He is the guy that I would think could be on the block if they do get a good offer. 

Duran would draw plenty of interest from any number of teams. Arizona led MLB in runs scored. Maybe the Twins could use a few minor leaguers plus Duran to pry away Jordan Lawler from the Dbacks. The Twins need to think of paths towards improving the roster. That is something we should agree on, although the ways and means may differ.

[DJL44]

5 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

If the Twins ship Ober or Ryan (and another piece) and come back with a legit cost controlled front end starter, it'd be a huge win for the team. Not sure who that cost controlled upper rotation guy would be, but it's just an example.

Does that happen? Do teams trade young, cheap pitching for other young, cheap pitching? Do you trust that the Twins would get the better end of the trade? 

The A's and Rays trade expensive for cheap. The Yankees and Dodgers trade for talent and don't worry about the cost. Challenge trades of my cheap starting pitcher for your cheap starting pitcher are really rare. Those are the trades that get one of the two general managers making the deal fired.

[beckmt]

I believe Raya and Morris are more highly rated than Zebby to start.  I might package Zebby and other of our younger players to get more pitching.  Twins do not have a lot of needs, just some players to grow into roles.  I only would use the farm to bring in a front line starter, rest could be fine with more experience.