Will the Minnesota Twins Trade Joe Ryan or Bailey Ober This Offseason?

[KBJ1]

Trade hitters for.pitchers. Don't trade pitching as we don't have any to begin with.

[tony&rodney]

24 minutes ago, JD-TWINS said:

Would you trade Jarren Duran, at all, period? Seems like a pretty low % move for the Boston FO.

I have no idea what either the Twins or Red Sox would do.

The Red Sox have two young guys ready for playing time right now (Anthony and Campbell) and also have Rafaela and Abreu already up and playing well plus Masataka (not going anywhere). The Red Sox need pitching. Certainly the Red Sox would ask for more than Ober ... maybe add Raya and someone like Rosario (rh bat). I might do that. perhaps add another pitcher. 

The basic idea is that while I do not expect any trades or moves from Falvey, the Twins need to make some changes. I wonder what ideas you might have to improve the roster. Or do you believe the roster is pretty much set?

[sweetmusicviola16]

Paddock, that is the only likely SP to get moved this season. Then one of the prospects mentioned could slide in at the 5th spot. Paddock won't bring much, if anything, but that will allow them to meet any budget restraints. Now isn't the time to trade cost controlled good quality young pitching. 

[D.C Twins]

No...no they will not...nor in any other metaverse... 

[PatPfund]

No, to trading Ryan or Ober. Sure, SWR and Festa may be MLB ready, but unless you think Paddack will suddenly be healthy, or Ryan (if he stays) won't be on an innings limit coming off of a serious shoulder injury, you are already counting on Simeon and David as rotation mainstays even if Ober and Ryan stay. Zebby still looks a pitch and some AAA seasoning short, Varland is probably an RP unless he finds something new, and the others are prospects still. If the Twins blow chunk next year, you can probably get more for Ryan and Ober at the deadline than in the offseason, and they are not (currently) part of the salary problem.

Buxton and Correa are not tradable, and we need them. It's not exciting, but the Twins should probably stay off the free agent market unless there are late values for adding a starting pitcher. They need to get their young bats healthy and hitting (Julien, Lewis, Lee, Miranda, Martin) not more roster blocking FA veterans. This team had a fair number of issues this season, but maybe the biggest was the implosion of the rotation. Trading SPs is a teardown move, not one to make the team competitive.

[Stew]

Usually if you take a thousand words to explain why something should or could happen, you're trying to hard to convince people. That said , the  simple answer is no!

[bean5302]

16 hours ago, JD-TWINS said:

Would you trade Jarren Duran, at all, period? Seems like a pretty low % move for the Boston FO...

LOL, no. I wanted Duran this past offseason, and I would have been willing to part with a couple pieces to get him because the Twins desperately need an inexpensive, potential every day CFer under control for at least 2-3 years, especially this past offseason. Jarren Duran put together an MVP worthy campaign last year. He's played at a level equal to Royce Lewis' likely ceiling.

MLBTR projects Duran at $4.9MM is kinda... well, stupid. MLBTR projects nearly the same for Bailey Ober? Duran put up as much WAR last year as pretty much Ober's entire career. I don't understand MLBTR's projection models in a couple instances (Jarren Duran, Griffin Jax)

In any case, Boston is not going to part with Mookie Betts #2 for a #3/4 starter in arbitration like Bailey Ober unless you're talking like a package like Brooks Lee + Royce Lewis + Bailey Ober. That's literally what Duran would cost right now.
BaseballTradeValues
Ober +22
Lewis +26
Lee +33
Duran +71

[Cap'n Piranha]

21 hours ago, USAFChief said:

First off, the idea of trading from two effective starters who will make around $8M combined, in an effort to save money, is pretty odd. 

Trading either should only be part of a complete tear down and rebuild. 

Second, how do Correa, Buxton and Lopez go from the core of a championship team in paragraph 2 to not being worth anything in trade in paragraph 3??

 

Not your best work, Nick.

You understand the Twins aren't the only team that operates with financial restraints, right?  No matter how well Correa plays, there are 20+ teams who would never trade for him, due to the contract.  You can absolutely win a WS with the healthy version of Carlos Correa as your best player.  You cannot trade him to any team in the league, even if he is fully healthy and producing.

Lopez and Buxton are in the same boat, but potentially shallower waters (maybe only 15 teams wouldn't take their contracts?)

Also, I don't think Nick's point was that the Twins should trade Ober and Ryan for 2025 payroll space.  His point was that if the payroll is going to stay static for the next 2-3 years (a high likelihood), perhaps it's better to trade them now in order to maximize return IF you think there are sufficient internal options to replace them, since payroll might dictate trading them after 2025 anyways.

If Falvey wants to bet on better health/performance in 2025, and deal with 2026 when it comes, I doubt he trades them.  If Falvey thinks 2025 is an uphill battle to compete (what are the odds Correa and Buxton are healthier?  What if the young guys don't rebound?), then taking a step back in 2025 to take 2 or 3 forward in 2026 is not a terrible strategy.

[laloesch]

On 10/15/2024 at 10:20 AM, Blyleven2011 said:

I agree it is highly unlikely if either of Ober and Ryan are traded ....

My take they will listen to trade talks about Pablo Lopez  ...

They will also explore the possibility to trade Correa to further right size the ship , Correa in my opinion  is considering the notion to lift his no trade clause due to the unstableness of the organization  ...

I guess we'll see how the off season plays out ...

if the front office approaches Correa about lifting his no trade clause to certain teams so that he can go to a perennial contender (assuming there are any interested takers) I think he would listen.  The writing is on the wall.  I honestly think the team will cut payroll down sub 100 million as soon as they can with these tv contract issues knowing the Pohlads.  They likely lost another 20 million in TV revenues with what has transpired since season end.   Not good.  Kepler is as good as gone.  Pablo will likely be traded because of his salary bump.  It's gonna get ugly.

They never should have signed Correa in the first place or Buxton for that matter.  Both players are constantly getting hurt and can't stay healthy.  After the Giants walked away from Correa in the first negotiations the Twins should have run for the hills learning about his injury history.  I think it was a case of "hey we have a second chance to get him, yipeee" and they truly didn't think through the long term  implications of such a gargantuan contract if he couldn't stay healthy.  Buxton is practically unmovable with his contract and injury history.  Moving either player would require the Twins to pay sizeable chunks of what remains of their contracts.

[Fatbat]

We never have enough pitching. We won’t trade away guys in their prime when we are set to become a perennial playoff team. 

[Jim wyllie]

One factor not considered here is that the pohlads are looking to sell the twins so they need a good competitive team to keep the teams value and appeal up for potential buyers they could theoretically raise payroll a little avoiding trading these 2 pitchers to improve the on field product and increase the teams appeal to buyers

[Irishman]

Hell no!   Keep Ryan and Ober!

[darin617]

This would be like a Tampa Bay type of trade. The one thing is Tampa always seemed to know the best time to trade the young arms for hauls. 

[Rosterman]

Unless either totally tank and are replaced by Randy Dobnak, they are good for 2-3 more years according to cost effectiveness if they pitch like they have.

At worst, you trade them before free agency, especially if team takes a mid-season dive. At best, you start moving them after next season if the 7+ guys in the pipeline start to produce.

[beckmt]

On 10/15/2024 at 11:07 AM, Muppet said:

I don't think it is a difference of opinion, I think it is a desperation. This team has no chance to replace a majority of their underwhelming underperforming players.  All of their prospects are up, and there's nothing left for the next few years.  For me, I don't think the talent level is there. They will ONLY win if most of the current roster steps it up several notches. 

They might get some good almost-ready prospects by trading away Ober and Ryan, but I don't think those prospects would lead to winning seasons in a few years unless they have big name players to replace Correa and Buxton when their contracts are up. 

It's a tight spot. Even with new owners they probably can't afford to buy a winning team. 

I don't call Roderiquez or Jenkins exactly chopped liver.  That is why we could spare a Wallner with others in a trade, only problem I see is payroll expense.  But a good drawing club would certainly help the bottom line, as would getting playoff home games.  We are likely to get some revenue sharing due to the TV issue.  Go for it.

[TopGunn#22]

If a player like Jarren Duran was the price for Bailey Ober I think I'd pull the trigger on that.  Duran is a legit full-time CF who could allow the Twins to either keep or move on from Byron Buxton.  There is no doubt, the Red Sox need pitching.  But Duran just put up an 8.7 WAR season at age 28.  He played 160 of the 162 games.  He's the anti-Buxton.  Ober is a good pitcher, but I'd trade him in a heartbeat for Duran.  

However, I'd first approach Boston about a possible SWR trade for either Ceddane Rafaela, who is a good CF. SS and 2B as well as a RH hitter (24 years old) with some pop and speed...OR, possibly Wilyer Abreu (25 years old) who is a Gold Glove Candidate for RF and is also a good speed/power kind of hitter. 

Rafaela would give the Twins tremendous flexibility in the IF and OF along with Castro.  We might actually have two guys capable of stealing 25-35 bases.  Abreu had an OPS of .781.  Rafaela was only .664.  Each are free swingers who need to take more walks, especially Rafaela.  But they are excellent defensive players, with speed and emerging power.  

Duran is the more expensive piece but would be worth the price of Ober as an everyday player.  But if you were reluctant to give up Ober, trading SWR for either of these guys would not be a bad move.  Maybe you expand the deal to include one of Boston's catchers (Wong or Jansen) and include someone like Vasquez for a reunion with the Red Sox.  Vasquez had a nice run with the Red Sox and his $10 million dollar salary wouldn't be as big a deal for Boston.  

[Parfigliano]

On 10/15/2024 at 6:17 PM, sweetmusicviola16 said:

Paddock, that is the only likely SP to get moved this season. Then one of the prospects mentioned could slide in at the 5th spot. Paddock won't bring much, if anything, but that will allow them to meet any budget restraints. Now isn't the time to trade cost controlled good quality young pitching. 

The last several years say Paddock is an on paper only starting pitcher.  Dude can't stay healthy.

[JD-TWINS]

On 10/15/2024 at 7:52 PM, tony&rodney said:

I have no idea what either the Twins or Red Sox would do.

The Red Sox have two young guys ready for playing time right now (Anthony and Campbell) and also have Rafaela and Abreu already up and playing well plus Masataka (not going anywhere). The Red Sox need pitching. Certainly the Red Sox would ask for more than Ober ... maybe add Raya and someone like Rosario (rh bat). I might do that. perhaps add another pitcher. 

The basic idea is that while I do not expect any trades or moves from Falvey, the Twins need to make some changes. I wonder what ideas you might have to improve the roster. Or do you believe the roster is pretty much set?

I do think that Pitching is the potential strength they shouldn’t move off of in ‘25.

Lewis - Morris - Matthews - Raya are all “potential” guys that will be getting more experience and polish in St Paul. ……Lopez - Festa - SWR - Ryan - Ober are a nice rotation to start the season, IMO.

Paddack - Varland - Topa - Alcala - Stewart - Jax - Sands - Duran are a potential strength for the Club in the Pen. …….there are another 5-6 guys with some MLB talent behind them…..Henriquez - Winder - Funderburk - Moran - Headrick - Blewett

They have 7 for sure core guys (CC - Buck - Vazquez - Lewis - Castro - Larnach - Wallner), IMO & will fill out the 13 man every day roster with minimum $$ guys  (Jeffers - Miranda - Martin - Lee & maybe Keirsey) NEED 1 free agent bat……..not a mid-level “RH corner OF” but somebody that can hit ……$15M plus type guy. Don’t see this type of offense available via trade.

Santana lead team in RBI & HRs and posted at 1B whenever asked……,,there’s a void there that a Miranda type - Kirilloff type will have a hard time filling! I don’t have an individual or list but I’m sure the options will be front and center here soon.

[Josh Rahman]

I get the value propisition of trading Ryan/Ober and wouldn't be opposed if it could improve 2025 a decent bit but honestly I struggle to find a way to make up the value of a top level starting pitcher in MLB level talent

[tony&rodney]

1 hour ago, JD-TWINS said:

I do think that Pitching is the potential strength they shouldn’t move off of in ‘25.

Lewis - Morris - Matthews - Raya are all “potential” guys that will be getting more experience and polish in St Paul. ……Lopez - Festa - SWR - Ryan - Ober are a nice rotation to start the season, IMO.

Paddack - Varland - Topa - Alcala - Stewart - Jax - Sands - Duran are a potential strength for the Club in the Pen. …….there are another 5-6 guys with some MLB talent behind them…..Henriquez - Winder - Funderburk - Moran - Headrick - Blewett

They have 7 for sure core guys (CC - Buck - Vazquez - Lewis - Castro - Larnach - Wallner), IMO & will fill out the 13 man every day roster with minimum $$ guys  (Jeffers - Miranda - Martin - Lee & maybe Keirsey) NEED 1 free agent bat……..not a mid-level “RH corner OF” but somebody that can hit ……$15M plus type guy. Don’t see this type of offense available via trade.

Santana lead team in RBI & HRs and posted at 1B whenever asked……,,there’s a void there that a Miranda type - Kirilloff type will have a hard time filling! I don’t have an individual or list but I’m sure the options will be front and center here soon.

I'm pretty positive towards the pitching as well, I believe in both Matthews and Morris as potential starting pitchers who can give the team competitive innings. Hopefully the top five are healthy and productive leaving the minor league guys to gain more experience in AAA.

Bullpens are always tricky and very unpredictable. The performance of Weaver for the Yankees is an example. Relief pitchers can be found in any number of ways: trades, inexpensive FA, waiver wire, and young starters getting their feet wet in the bullpen.

Core guys? We may disagree on this area. Correa and Buxton are clear positives, provided they are actually on the field. Vazquez can still provide some value with his glove, despite how sporadically his bat works. The remainder of the roster has potential at the plate but is very weak defensively. The difference between Twins defenders and the players trotted out by the opposition is more apparent in person than on TV. Speed, reads, jumps, and decisions are all below average at this point. My bias is as a former pitcher. Expecting our pitchers to get an additional out or two every other inning creates problems. The Twins pitchers were #2 in strikeouts this past season. This will be difficult to repeat meaning the defense must improve or the team needs a top three offense, particularly in late and close games. Improved defense is a must.

My frustration with Falvey grew when he bungled his opportunities last offseason. It doesn't makes sense to look back, so I try to believe that a few changes this offseason can provide some hope for a better roster. Returning the same roster and players to the same positions and hoping for a vast improvement doesn't seem like a plan to me. It is unclear what value other teams see in any player on the Twins current roster, but Falvey needs to comb through ideas and potential moves and take a chance or two.

In November, Twins Daily will put up their offseason roster blueprint and  by then people will be able to make their guesses. I'm hoping that Falvey does way better than any of us.

[tony&rodney]

1 hour ago, Josh Rahman said:

I get the value propisition of trading Ryan/Ober and wouldn't be opposed if it could improve 2025 a decent bit but honestly I struggle to find a way to make up the value of a top level starting pitcher in MLB level talent

Welcome to Twins Daily. 

One example of the difficulty of this type of trade was when the Twins traded Luis Arraez to Miami for Pablo Lopez and two minor leaguers. 

A team has to feel/think that their strength in a position (1B/2B/DH in the Arraez example) and need in another (SP in MIA-MN trade) makes a trade worthwhile. For sure, it is a move that teams make with an abundance of caution. These trades are a gamble by their very nature, but also necessary to move off of a point of mediocrity. The Twins are sort of in that position right now. 

Add on .... people will no doubt note the irony of the Twins feeling that there was depth galore at first and second base. 

[Parfigliano]

1 hour ago, tony&rodney said:

Welcome to Twins Daily. 

One example of the difficulty of this type of trade was when the Twins traded Luis Arraez to Miami for Pablo Lopez and two minor leaguers. 

A team has to feel/think that their strength in a position (1B/2B/DH in the Arraez example) and need in another (SP in MIA-MN trade) makes a trade worthwhile. For sure, it is a move that teams make with an abundance of caution. These trades are a gamble by their very nature, but also necessary to move off of a point of mediocrity. The Twins are sort of in that position right now. 

Add on .... people will no doubt note the irony of the Twins feeling that there was depth galore at first and second base. 

Arraez skill set doesn't seem to be valued in today's MLB.  Keeps winning batting titles and getting traded.

[h2oface]

On 10/17/2024 at 11:06 AM, Parfigliano said:

Arraez skill set doesn't seem to be valued in today's MLB.  Keeps winning batting titles and getting traded.

Or he is very highly valued, as teams always want to trade for him! What it really shows, is there are a lot of incompetent executives hired by MLB teams who think they are smarter than most, but the results rarely lead to successful teams. And a lot of writers that will write stories about ridiculous moves, that also feel they are smarter than most.

[h2oface]

"Trading Bailey Ober or Joe Ryan would not be a comfortable move, and maybe not a popular one. But as we think of the challenges and constraints that lie before the front office, these are the kinds of moves we're going to need to view within the realm of realistic possibilities. I'd almost say the odds are better than not that one gets dealt."

Just sell and move the damn team. Seems that writers and FO employees don't care about people anyway. All are just a piece of chattel to them, apparently. Teams don't ever get better by getting rid of the best players. 5 years down the road? Maybe? Hardly counts in my book.