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The Twins front office, restructured following the departure of Thad Levine, faces a key challenge this offseason: get better with almost literally zero spending flexibility. To find any room for additions, Derek Falvey and Co. will likely need to get creative, and that might mean moving some of their existing commitments to clear up space moving forward.
Pablo López, who will see his salary jump from $8 million to $21 million next season, is a name that's been thrown around as a potential trade candidate. There have also been suggestions the Twins could try to unload the remaining contracts of Carlos Correa or Byron Buxton, if one or both would be willing to waive their no-trade clauses.
In my mind, the Twins shouldn't be looking to deal any of those three. In part it's because I believe López, Correa and Buxton make up a viable veteran nucleus for a championship team. The front office should be building around these prime-aged stars, not dismantling them. All three players had their issues this past season, but at least they ended in a good place. Let's run it back behind them. Much was invested to get these pieces in place.
There's also the question of trade value and expected return. Even if you can talk Correa or Buxton into waiving their NTCs, and you can actually find a taker for their risk-laden contracts, are you really get anything of substance in return? Unlikely. López certainly would command a respectable package, but he hardly seems like a sell-high candidate: He just posted an ERA over 4.00 for the first time in five years, and he's owed about $65 million over the next three seasons, having put his low-cost days behind him.
If the front office wants to thread the needle of finding financial relief through trades that actually have a chance to make the team better, I believe they'd be far better off shopping Bailey Ober or Joe Ryan.
Would they actually be willing to lose a cornerstone from the 2024 rotation? It might come down to how much these controllable arms could net, and how much Falvey believes in his pitching pipeline.
The Case for Trading Ober or Ryan
Proven, cost-controlled starting pitching is perhaps the most valued commodity in baseball. I suspect we might see an even greater appetite for it than usual this offseason, as teams across the league look to scale back spending and balk at a free-agent market full of pricey question marks.
Trading Ober or Ryan wouldn't be so much about short-term cost savings. They are both first-time arbitration eligible this offseason, estimated by MLB Trade Rumors to be in line for $4.3 million and $3.8 million in 2025, respectively. Those price tags make them appealing to prospective trade partners relative to López, who will earn about five times as much.
Given what they're up against from a payroll perspective, even an extra $4 million or so would be quite useful for the Twins front office this offseason. But the financial implications of trading Ober or Ryan are more about future years beyond 2025. With good seasons, their salaries would escalate into the $10 million range in year two of arbitration, and then up from there in year three. The Twins will still be on the hook with López, Correa and Buxton for about $70 million in 2026 and 2027, making those increases difficult to absorb.
By trading Ober or Ryan now, the Twins would be getting out in front of this coming payroll crunch while theoretically maximizing their value as trade pieces. Presently both are under team control for three more years, inexpensive in the short term, and – most importantly – coming off very good seasons.
Ober set career bests in innings (179), fWAR (2.9) and strikeout rate (26.9%), performing like a frontline starter outside of a few hiccups among his 31 starts. His 3.24 xERA ranked fifth-best among all major-league starters. For a good stretch of the summer, he was one of the most effective pitchers in all of baseball.
Ryan missed the final two months after suffering a season-ending shoulder injury. Obviously, that's a consideration in assessing his trade value. But the right-hander generally has a track record of very good health, and there seems to be no reason to think the teres major strain he sustained in August will be a long-term concern. It didn't require surgery and, in fact, based on the initial recovery timeline of roughly two months, he might be fully healed by now. Any team trading for Ryan should be able to gain a solid level of confidence in his physical state.
They also should feel confident in what he can do when healthy and on the mound. Ryan set a career high in fWAR this year (3.1) despite making only 23 starts. Still only 28, he has been excellent since joining the MLB ranks, holding opponents to a .223/.275/.409 slash line while averaging 10 strikeouts and two walks per nine innings. He's been worthy of All-Star consideration in each of the past two seasons.
Naturally, all these factors that make Ober and Ryan attractive to other teams also signify why losing them would hurt the Minnesota Twins. When at their best this year, the consistency of the team's rotation was arguably their biggest strength, and these hurlers were crucial ingredients in that. The idea of succeeding without one of them hinges on the legitimacy of the organization's pitching pipeline.
Between Simeon Woods Richardson, David Festa, Zebby Matthews, Marco Raya, Andrew Morris, Cory Lewis and Connor Prielipp, the system is ripe with intriguing and impressive young pitchers who are nearing major-league readiness if not already there.
Giving up the proven impact of an Ober or Ryan, and turning the reins over to these largely unproven youngsters, entails a significant amount of risk. But it's not just about clearing payroll – you're going to get back legitimate talent in exchange for one of these starters. What kind of talent? Well, as one point of comparison, when the Miami Marlins traded Pablo López at a similar stage a couple years ago, they got back an All-Star, Silver Slugger, and fringe MVP candidate.
Trading Bailey Ober or Joe Ryan would not be a comfortable move, and maybe not a popular one. But as we think of the challenges and constraints that lie before the front office, these are the kinds of moves we're going to need to view within the realm of realistic possibilities. I'd almost say the odds are better than not that one gets dealt.
What are your thoughts on the matter? Would you be open to trading Ober or Ryan in the right deal? Or should the Twins be looking elsewhere in their efforts to shave payroll and find ways to improve? Let us know in the comments.
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