Four Takeaways From the Minnesota Twins' First Half

[Ted Schwerzler]

The first half has been a roller coaster for the Minnesota Twins during the 2024 season. While they were brutal early on, they have found smoother sailing since. Let's see what we've learned from the season to date.

Image courtesy of © Matt Marton-USA TODAY Sports

As Rocco Baldelli watched his team collect a win on Opening Day in Kansas City, he was immediately reminded how good Royce Lewis is. Byron Buxton was in center field, and Carlos Correa was healthy. Pablo López was on the bump, and the Twins were favorites to defend their American League Central title.

Unfortunately the Cleveland Guardians have been among the hottest teams in baseball, and the Twins' slow start dug them a hole. As they try to claw closer heading into the All-Star break, what revelations from the first half will define the second? Here are a few of the keys:

A Healthy Carlos Correa is Amazing
Carlos Correa is an All-Star. It's the third time he has been given that honor, and coincidentally, he has played in the World Series during the previous two seasons. Last year, Correa was a shell of himself for the Twins, putting up a sub-100 OPS+ as he dealt with plantar fasciitis.

Now healthy, Correa is experiencing the second-best season of his career. He will certainly get MVP votes if this keeps up, and he’ll have a chance to surpass his previous career best in WAR. Correa has delivered precisely the way you need a high-dollar superstar to, and it’s what players like Lee, Lewis, and José Miranda need to see.

Pitching Depth is the Problem it Was Expected to Be
When the Twins decided to let Sonny Gray walk, it was a calculated decision. He was arguably the difference-maker they needed for a postseason run, but the contract St. Louis gave him was never going to make sense for the more constrained Twins. The thought was he could be replaced through free agency or the trade market, but that move hasn’t come--yet.

Louie Varland was quickly jettisoned to the minor leagues, and Chris Paddack has been espectedly up-and-down as he returns from Tommy John surgery. The emergence of Simeon Woods Richardson has been encouraging, but David Festa didn’t look ready in his cameo. With López struggling, a harsher spotlight swings to Joe Ryan and Bailey Ober, which makes October baseball dicey. Expecting a deadline addition for the rotation seems almost too optimistic, but Minnesota needs one.

This Isn’t the Best Bullpen in Baseball
Starting the season, there was some thought that the Twins could have the best bullpen in baseball. On paper, it seemed to be a fair assessment. Then Jhoan Durán, Josh Staumont, and Justin Topa started the year on the injured list. Jay Jackson has already been designated for assignment twice, and Steven Okert has been serviceable, rather than dominant.

Griffin Jax and Brock Stewart have been amazing. Unfortunately, the latter has been on the shelf for weeks, and it’s always a concern as to how his arm will hold up. Staumont has been great since being promoted to the big leagues, but Durán hasn’t found his top velocity all year. The group is solid, but an addition or two should be the focal point at the trade deadline. Minnesota won’t grab someone to overtake Duran or Jax, but a Stewart-type addition seems like a must.

Prospect Promotions Have Been Fun
Lewis was the best Twins prospect since Buxton, and Walker Jenkins has since taken over that title, but others have been called upon already this season. Brooks Lee missed an early opportunity as he dealt with a back issue, and it was Austin Martin who capitalized on the circumstances. He has proven to be an invaluable piece for Minnesota, and seeing him work at the same time as Woods Richardson from the José Berríos trade has been fun.

When Paddack needed a brief reset, we got to see the top pitching prospect, Festa. It didn’t go as planned, but his work at Triple-A suggests there is a talented arm in waiting for the Twins. We probably won’t see Luke Keaschall or Emmanuel Rodriguez the rest of the way, but watching both have substantial success on the farm indicates that the future should be in good hands.

What are some of your big takeaways from the Twins start to the year?

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[William K Johnson]

The "Core Four" (Lewis, Buxton, Correa and Lee) seem ready for an extended run if not beset by the injury bug.   Kepler is in one of his pop-up runs, Larnach's strike out issue seems to be re-emerging, Miranda may never take a walk again and Castro is in a little bit of a slump.   However, if these guys and Wallner can contribute something daily, the offense will be fine.   Time to move on from Margot, Santana and Farmer.   Martin looks like a solid utility player.    Also need to figure out if Kiriloff is the answer at first or what other options are available there.

No one expected Cleveland to be this good.   David Fry (All-Star), Freeman, Martinez, and even Bo Naylor have been surprising.    You have to tip your hat to their staff, replacing Shane Bieber without a hiccup is a testimony to their front office.   Bullpen is a good as there is, and their Core four (Kwan, Naylor, Ramirez, Gimenez) are consistently good.

On the pitching front, Joe Ryan may be the greatest trade in Twins history.   If he continues progressing the way he is, he could possibly be an ace of this rotation, if not already.   Ober continues to amaze with his consistency, Lopez surely will figure out the problem with his breaking balls, but after that, everything is up in the air.  SMR has been pleasant surprise, but I have a feeling he will eventually hit a wall.    Paddack is still very questionable.

Bullpen seems to be getting better but still could use an additional arm or two.   Stewart and Topia's return should help but more is needed.   A left hander in particular would help, as neither Okert or Funderburk appear to be the answer and how much is left in Thielbar?

All in all, it appears that we should have an interesting second half.

 

[Whitey333]

It's really been a roller coaster year.  Many ups and downs.  They are doing a great job of beating up on the poor teams and poorly against teams with winning records.  SWR has been a nice surprise so far.  Lopez has been a huge disappointment up to this point.  Twins need him to return to "ace" performance for them going forward.  It's been fun watching some of the prospects perform so well.  Gk Twins!!

[arby58]

8 minutes ago, Whitey333 said:

It's really been a roller coaster year.  Many ups and downs.  They are doing a great job of beating up on the poor teams and poorly against teams with winning records.  SWR has been a nice surprise so far.  Lopez has been a huge disappointment up to this point.  Twins need him to return to "ace" performance for them going forward.  It's been fun watching some of the prospects perform so well.  Gk Twins!!

They have been really bad against the Yankees, Guardians, and Orioles, to be sure, but they have winning records against the Red Sox (2-1), Royals (5-2), Mariners (5-2), and Astros (4-2), so it's not like they can't win against teams with winning records.  Many ups and downs, to be sure, but that's most teams over 162 games. Last year, they were under .500 at the All Star break, so it's hard to be too hard on this team.

[arby58]

I'm not as high on Martin (at least so far) as some. Sure, he gives them positional flexibility, but he has looked a little lost at those positions at times. Also, his -0.2 WAR is nothing to write home about. 

[FlyingFinn]

I don't think starting pitching depth has been a problem, only because our starters have been so healthy. Credit the training staff (and maybe some luck). If we had to go 15 deep for starters like the Brewers, we would be in a heap of trouble.

[Finlander]

Other takes I see: Miranda is proving that last year was simply an injury-related outlier. I like him as a dangerous bat, and he has even flashed on a few corner infield plays. At the very least, he has become a nice trade chip. Castro continues his breakout as his playing time has increased. Wish he'd steal more bags like he did last year though. He's like a Cesar Tovar with a better bat and maybe should be considered for a contract extension. Julien, who most people counted on for a full and productive season this year, really fell off the cliff. Here's hoping he finds his way back. Larnach has shown nice improvement in recognizing pitches (and hitting them) this year. Overall, it's been nice to see the hitters cutting down on strikeouts a bit too.

And the pitching...well...we knew. While I was volunteering at the soup kitchen, I ladled another cup of beef barley for a disheveled looking Mr Pohlad as he grumbled about TV deals and how expensive Michael Wacha would be. I gave him some extra crackers.

[srlarson]

Time to dump the high priced vets and let the "kids" play......Get what you can...but unload the salaries even if only for a 6 pack......  Farmer, Margot........Santana  I am either way on....and would love to see Vazquez gone...but no one is taking that contract.....guys hitting under .200 just don't belong in the majors.....

Would love to see Lewis, Correa, Lee, and Miranda in the infield in the 2nd half

[Five minute major]

What a crazy ride so far this season.  They have looked absolutely lost at stretches and world beaters at others.    We are getting a glimpse of what could be a really fun offense if they can jettison Farmer and Margot.

Wallner's power is Nelson Cruzesque!   If he can stay dialed in, he could put up huge numbers.    At the beginning of last year, looked like Austin Martin was going to be a flop.  What a fantastic turnaround and a fun player to watch.   Jose Miranda regaining his swing from two years ago is the most pleasant surprise of the season!    Correia is finally earning his mega contract and know we can see why he got it in the first place.   Legit All star.    And Royce Lewis and Brooks Lee look like cornerstones for the next decade (if they can stay healthy).    Jake Cave must've given the blackmail photo's he has on the Twin's FO to Kyle Farmer.   Please move on from him.

 

[Road trip]

My takeaway is that while there were some brutal stretches of play, overall it was a pretty decent 1st half for the Twins.  13 games over .500 just before the All Star break?  Yeah, I would have taken that back on April 1.

Can't help the crazy hot 1st half for Cleveland, although part of the blame falls on the Twins who played poorly vs the Guardians.  Cleveland might last, might not, but at least the Twins project to make the playoffs.

Enough of the young players are hitting and improving, mostly, even if there are some disappointments like Kirilloff.  That's good and needed because the vets we have are already at their performance ceiling, and for some the ceiling isn't very high.  Injuries have hurt, but that's a league-wide problem and at least they haven't yet affected starting pitching where the Twins have very limited depth.  But the starting pitching.... yeah, we need Pablo to find his 2023 form.  Without that it is hard to envision significant playoff success unless the offense just catches fire in October.

[DJL44]

I love that unexpectedly good health from Byron Buxton is overshadowed by many other good developments.

[LambchoP]

Good first half,but if we're going to catch Cleveland or even TRY to win a playoff series, then we need a solid starter and at least one reliever. Preferably a real good lefty and a good righty. Time to move on from Farmer Margot and Santana. Trade them for whatever we can get, even if it's just a salary dump. We're getting much better production from our prospects and young players and it will be great for their development to play meaningful September games. Should be a fun second half of we can stay healthy, especially the pitching staff.

[Jocko87]

1 hour ago, FlyingFinn said:

I don't think starting pitching depth has been a problem, only because our starters have been so healthy. Credit the training staff (and maybe some luck). If we had to go 15 deep for starters like the Brewers, we would be in a heap of trouble.

Was going to say this. Everyone that has to go 15 deep is in trouble. If the Brewers have to stay 15 deep, they will be in trouble too.

Bullpen is obviously working to be the best in baseball by September.  Best bullpen in July doesn't mean much.

[Riverbrian]

As much as I have been complaining about things on this site lately.

The truth is... I have no complaints. It's been a nice first half. The offense has been better than expected... I still think it has the potential to be better and I still think it needs to be better because: 

The pitching has been what I have expected. I was pretty sure that the collective pitching staff was going to down tick in comparison to last year.

So... I felt that improved offense was the best way to over come the pitching down tick.  

If the Twins are going to win the world series this year... they will need to do it like the Rangers did it last year. By beating everybody with their bats. 

[Twodogs]

Maybe hook up a trade with Toronto to bring Berrios back?  

[LA Vikes Fan]

I think we sometimes fail to celebrate the good as we strive for the great. The Twins are 53-40 with 3 games left to the ASB. That equates to 92 plus wins. And that's after playing what appears to be the tougher half of the schedule.  The Twins have been a very good team so far this year. That's something we should celebrate.

Not only that, we've done a great job of incorporating a solid to very good youthful core going forward. The pitching staff has Lopez, Ryan, and Ober in the rotation followed by a couple of possibilities in SWR and Paddack. We have Duran, Jax,  and Sands in the BP,  Both areas need depth but the top pieces are there. The lineup is even better. We could drop all of the veteran depth and roll with a core of Lewis, Lee, Miranda, Correa, Buxton, Castro, and Jeffers next year.  Larnach, Wallner, and Martin are more iffy but may pan out, and that's without even thinking about Julien, Keirsey, or Camargo, and there's more farther down. This team is light years ahead of where it was 3-5 years ago. 

This all seems less exciting because Cleveland is playing at a 101 win pace. We would be more excited about the Twins if Cleveland was going to win 85 games. Still, if someone had said I can give you a deal where the Twins will win 90-95 games this year, all I would have said where do I sign? 

Fun first half and a real shot at an even more fun second half. Yeah, injuries could kill the team and yeah, those of you in the viewing area are getting totally hosed by the TV situation (I'm in California so I can watch all the games on MLB.com except when they paly the Dodgers or Angels). All in all, good times. I hope they last. 

[twinfan]

If the team stays healthy and can get past the Yankees (who are falling big time), they have a legitimate path to the LCS. In the playoffs, you only need 3 starters and a good bullpen and we have that. It would be nice to get a horse like Scherzer but I don't see us forking over the money. I can see us maybe getting Berrios or Bassitt or maybe Tallion (whom I like) or a lefty starter from somewhere (but NOT Kukuchi). The key, though, is to be healthy at playoff time. And let's take 5 of 6 from the Indians though Classe won't allow that.

[bean5302]

29 minutes ago, Twodogs said:

Maybe hook up a trade with Toronto to bring Berrios back?  

I don't see that as a deal making sense for either side. Toronto wants to compete, and Berrios is a long term asset for them. For the Twins, he's a mid rotation guy, he doesn't slot in at the front and he'll be expensive (both prospect and payroll).

[bean5302]

7 minutes ago, twinfan said:

...In the playoffs, you only need 3 starters ... and we have that...

Who are these 3 playoff caliber starters you're referencing?
Joe Ryan (who has collapsed every 2nd half in his career),
Simeon Woods Richardson (117 IP last year on pace for 160 IP this year)... and?
Lopez = 5.11 ERA
Ober = 4.14 ERA
Paddack = 5.18 ERA

I think the Twins are looking pretty dicey at those playoff caliber starters right now.
 

[USAFChief]

17 minutes ago, twinfan said:

If the team stays healthy and can get past the Yankees (who are falling big time), they have a legitimate path to the LCS. In the playoffs, you only need 3 starters and a good bullpen and we have that. It would be nice to get a horse like Scherzer but I don't see us forking over the money. I can see us maybe getting Berrios or Bassitt or maybe Tallion (whom I like) or a lefty starter from somewhere (but NOT Kukuchi). The key, though, is to be healthy at playoff time. And let's take 5 of 6 from the Indians though Classe won't allow that.

If you get past the wild card round you'll use 4 starters, minimum.

[Riverbrian]

55 minutes ago, twinfan said:

If the team stays healthy and can get past the Yankees (who are falling big time), they have a legitimate path to the LCS. In the playoffs, you only need 3 starters and a good bullpen and we have that. It would be nice to get a horse like Scherzer but I don't see us forking over the money. I can see us maybe getting Berrios or Bassitt or maybe Tallion (whom I like) or a lefty starter from somewhere (but NOT Kukuchi). The key, though, is to be healthy at playoff time. And let's take 5 of 6 from the Indians though Classe won't allow that.

I like your optimism and I agree with you... I also do not see us forking over the money or the trade pieces necessary to land a pitcher like Scherzer. 

However... I think it will be expensive to land the other starters you list as possible. Who knows... I've been wrong before. 

On the bullpen side of things. There are a few arms I like in our current pen but it's not 8 deep like it needs to be. The current left handed arm contingent doesn't make me sleep easy. I'd like to see the Twins try to get a decent left handed reliever to shore up the port side. A decent left handed reliever... not just a left hander who breathes at best. 

Offense: Make the Phone Calls - Take the phone calls. Look for ways to lengthen the lineup. Make it stronger because I agree with you... we won't get the big name starter at the trade deadline and the offense may have to cover for that. 

No matter what the front office does: It's July... This team needs to consider itself a playoff team right now and going forward.    

 

 

[whosafraidofluigirussolo]

"Expecting a deadline addition for the rotation seems almost too optimistic, but Minnesota needs one."
"The [bullpen] is solid, but an addition or two should be the focal point at the trade deadline."

Agreed with these summaries of the pitching situation. Given the cautious tendencies of this front office, especially in the last year, we should be prepared for less in the rotation—a lower-impact addition or no addition at all. But a late-inning reliever seems like the minimum to expect at the deadline, and adding a second arm would not be unreasonable—an additional reliever, a starter, or maybe a swingman who could slot into either role as roster needs evolve?

Parallel with this, my other takeaway is that the position-player group is likely set for the postseason. Sure, there is some risk of the young guys or guys with less track record (Castro) falling off, and I'm sure the FO will listen on possible moves around the margins—maybe they cycle Margot or Farmer off the roster and improve those spots, for instance. But it certainly seems right now like there's enough depth and upside there to carry the team on the offensive side, leaving more of whatever trade capital they have for moves on the pitching side.

[dex8425]

2 hours ago, srlarson said:

Time to dump the high priced vets and let the "kids" play......Get what you can...but unload the salaries even if only for a 6 pack......  Farmer, Margot........Santana  I am either way on....and would love to see Vazquez gone...but no one is taking that contract.....guys hitting under .200 just don't belong in the majors.....

Would love to see Lewis, Correa, Lee, and Miranda in the infield in the 2nd half

League-wide batting avg is the lowest it's been since 1968, "the year of the pitcher" and the year before they lowered the pitching mound. There are lots of guys hitting under .200. Look at the mariners hitting stats!

[dex8425]

Lineup and bullpen are good. The rotation needs at least another guy to give them depth who is better than Festa/Varland down the stretch, otherwise Dobnak and Caleb Boushley are going to be making starts in September. Obviously someone better than Ober/Ryan would also be helpful, but expensive in dollars or prospect capital and I don't see that type of trade happening. 

[ashbury]

The team has shown they can beat the bad teams while running up good offensive numbers.  They haven't convinced me they can keep up with the elite teams yet.  That's my takeaway. 

There's still nearly half a season for them to change my mind about that.

[Twodogs]

1 hour ago, bean5302 said:

I don't see that as a deal making sense for either side. Toronto wants to compete, and Berrios is a long term asset for them. For the Twins, he's a mid rotation guy, he doesn't slot in at the front and he'll be expensive (both prospect and payroll).

That post was supposed to be just kinda funny.  Since the Twins need starting pitcher depth and Toronto stinks.  

[RpR]

2 hours ago, srlarson said:

Time to dump the high priced vets and let the "kids" play......Get what you can...but unload the salaries even if only for a 6 pack......  Farmer, Margot........Santana  I am either way on....and would love to see Vazquez gone...but no one is taking that contract.....guys hitting under .200 just don't belong in the majors.....

Would love to see Lewis, Correa, Lee, and Miranda in the infield in the 2nd half

Lewis

Miranda seems, at least recently, seems to have let tying a record go to his head.

Lee will probably hit the - we figured you out - slump eventually but he does look like he might be as good as some here were fatuated about at least to a degree.

Wallner, he looks like Lurch's son, is doing a just out of AAA surge. It would be nice he keeps it up.  He is usually smiling and looks like a dude that talking to would be a nice conversation.

The Twin must do very well againt the Phillies, Braves and Cleveland or they could be mired in mediocrity.

 

[Althebum82]

My opinion of Santana has changed since the end of May.  Maybe Kiriloff's disappearance has contributed to that, but Santana has shown that while he is not at the career peak form which was no doubt a factor in his price tag, he is still overall a positive factor on this team.   Honestly, Margot is only slightly underperforming his career numbers......he's not going away because he is essentially giving the FO what they expected when they pursued him.  As fans, we expect more but as long as he is healthy we are stuck with him.  

That leaves Farmer as the only obvious position player that we should expect to see go away.  Lee is proving this every day as is, to a lesser degree, Martin.  

This team has been fun to follow, and in ways that a lot of us actually did not expect coming out of spring training.  If only we could actually see them on tv once an awhile, it would be even more fun.

[LA Vikes Fan]

I would like to see a rotation add but it's only likely possible with someone on a lesser contract like Tyler Anderson or Erik Fedde, and the prospect cost is going to be high on both, Not holding my breath. No Kikuchi for me. A bullpen add would really help and it doesn't have to be a high end piece liek Estevez or Tanner Scott They would both be great but again, the prospect cost will be high. I'd be happy with Kirby Yates, Aroldis Chapman, or Lucas Erceg if we don't have to overspend too badly. Heck, even Chafin or Beeks might help. No need to augment the lineup at trade deadline pricing. 

[Trov]

Had we not started so bad we would be talked about one of best teams in baseball, as we have had a top record since our terrible start.  The Yankees are on the other side of the coin, they started off so hot.  They were 50 and 22 after June 14th game.  As of today, they are 56 and 38.  Meaning they have gone 6 and 16 over last 22 games.  That is terrible. That is only 3 games better than how White Sox started their first 22 games.  

Of course each game counts, but the Yankees world is coming down but still is leading the wild card by 4.5 games, because they had huge cushion. Cleveland has yet to have a bad run overall. 

I feel fans here feel like the team is doing much worse than we really are, and since the 7-13 start we are doing pretty well. Since that time we are 19 games above .500.  We are testing our starting pitching depth, and do not have anyone that is considered a cy young person, but we have 5 solid starters overall, no one when they start do I say, well we better score a ton today.

Our offense has become one of best in baseball, and this has been sustained for awhile.  We are 4th in runs scored, 4th in HR, 3rd in OPS.  We really need to work on the pen for the most part and hope health of the rotation holds.