Four Takeaways From the Minnesota Twins' First Half

[dex8425]

3 hours ago, JD-TWINS said:

So the first 93 have gone about as well as could be expected. 

11-5 in SWR’s starts

11-6 in Paddack’s starts

11-8 in Lopez’ starts

9-9 in Ober’s starts

10-8 in Ryan’s starts

Top 3 guys are starting against tougher competition & Team is 30-25 in their games…not bad!

The Maeda/Gray replacements have a Team record of 22–11 in their starts…..better than excellent!

Festa/Varland have 7 combined starts and Team has won only 2 of those 7 games ….., ouch!

Stewart - Topa seem to both be coming over next 2-4 weeks. Thielbar has had 6 straight decent outings.

All I see are the comments about how the Team should assemble a perfect roster ….”need a lefty” …..”need a starter or else” …………..”need a starter and 2 relievers”…. I get this is a discussion forum but it’s not Fantasy Baseball.

Only need 4 starters in Playoffs…..with health, SWR is at least an Opener as the 4th starter.

Dodgers - Orioles - Red Sox - Guardians - Mets - Milwaukee - etc. etc. “need starting pitching & a little bullpen help for the stretch”……..good luck acquiring the Twin’s needs v. these other organizations.

Playoff Pen:

Thielbar or Okert - Alcala - Paddack - Varland - Staumont - Stewart - Jax - Duran ……how much better can a Pen get??? Are these guys flawless ….. nobody is, but I sure like this group! As a group, they have to have the best collective “stuff” in the game come October 1st.

I like the lineup and pen too. The team is winning because the offense has scored the 4th most runs in MLB, not because the starting pitching is winning games. Ober was pretty dang good last year and got rocked in his only playoff start. They didn't trust Ryan in the playoffs last year either. SMW has been terrific, but so was Dobnak in 2019. There are only two starters on the Twins with even an above average ERA-Ryan and SMW. 

Arizona did well in the playoffs with two studs in their rotation and Brandon Pfaadt. Texas had Montgomery, Eovaldi and Scherzer. Twins can definitely make the playoffs as constructed but can Ober and Ryan be the second and third guy you trust to get 20 outs in a postseason game? Idk. 

[wabene]

3 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

I mean, I'd rather get Liriano and Nathan (let alone also a number 5 starter) rather than Ryan alone any day of the year. 

It's not just a number 5 starter, it's the Boof man.

[Craig Arko]

4.5 GB the Guardians now. Better chance of overtaking them than I would have thought.

[LA Vikes Fan]

Catching Cleveland is the playoff key IMHO. The Twins can go somewhere in the playoffs if we can win the AL Central and get the number two seed. Then, we need to hope that the number three seed AL West division Champion, Seattle or Houston, beats their wildcard opponent. That would put us against either Seattle or Houston with home-field advantage in the at ALDS. Win there, and all of our sudden were in the ALCS against one of Baltimore, Cleveland, or the Yankees.  We would have a chance to win one series against those three teams, but not more than one.

The baseball playoffs are frankly kind of getting like the NFL playoffs. Seeding is key because it really determines who you play and who you play is critical on whether you have a chance to advance. Love the way the Twins are playing this year, but I just don't see them getting to the World Series as a wildcard having to beat the Yankees in the wildcard, then Cleveland or Baltimore in the ALDS, and then Cleveland or Baltimore in the ALCS. Catch Cleveland, win the division with a better record than the AL West winner, and all of a sudden there is a path to the World Series were you only have to beat Houston or Seattle, and then one of Baltimore, Cleveland, or the Yankees in one series. That we can do.

Hey, a guy can dream, right?

[DocBauer]

I liked this team when they broke camp...for the most part. It wasn't perfect, but I liked it. I liked it even better, projection wise, about a month in when a couple injured RP would be back. My expectations were a team that was going to win about 90-92 games. I thought they had a shot at a couple more wins if a couple of things broke just right. 

Imagine my surprise and disappointment when they started off 7-13 and lost Royce the first game of the year. 

You have to count all games, and the whole season. But going in to the double header on Wednesday the 11th, the Twins had the best record in baseball since April 22, which was basically the end of their big losing streak. I believe they were also first in runs league wide since that time. Woulda, coulda, shoulda, but if the team hadn't started so ridiculously bad and inconsistent, they'd probably be in 1st  in the ALC right now. They say you can't win a pennant in April, but you can lose one. I suppose that's true. But we still have half a season left, and while the Twins are looking at a solid WC lock at the moment, I'm going to hold out for a Cleveland slump and the Twins taking over 1st.

Other than that ridiculous and frustrating start, what's  SURPRISED me is HOW the Twins have GOTTEN to where they are. I saw Ryan and Ober doing well, but I didn't see Lopez struggling this much, or Varland just imploding. I didn't see Julien and Wallner getting off to such poor starts, but I also wasn't sure about  Buxton being so healthy,  or Miranda coming back so strong and even improving over his rookie season. And honestly, despite some tough games here and there, the pen has been every bit as good as could be expected,  if not more so, when you look at the number of injuries. My goodness, I believe there were 7 guys on the IL at one point that were marked for potential pen duty?

Going forward? (other than decent health)

1) Lopez's biggest problem doesn't appear to be stuff. It's a lack of consistency. It's as if all the hits in a game keep coming bunched in a single inning. Is he due a couple adjustments and some better "luck" for greater consistency? I'm going to disagree with a lot of opinions on here, I like the Twins top 3 SP just fine, if they just keep doing what they are doing, or are capable of doing. If we make the second round, it's a toss up of SWR or Paddack as the #4,  but that's months away right now. I really don't know who you're going to trade for, mid season, during an "auction", when all but a handful of teams are still in the hunt right now. I'm never opposed to making the team better, but I just don't see anything happening without paying a king's ransom at this point.

2) If Stewart can come back and finish out the season, with the improved and now trusted Alcala, as well as Duran and Jax, that's a really good 4 to work with. Can Varland give the pen a big boost come  September and through the playoffs? I don't see why not,  and that might be his future. Now we're at 5 big arms before we get to anyone else. Sands has largely been solid all year as a 6th inning, and sometimes 7th inning, arm. Can Topa come all the way back? What about Staumont adding velocity and his new slider and starting to look like a possible option? And one of SWR or Paddack would also be available for the pen, yes? From the LH side, I like Okert as a #2 guy. He's not great, but he's generally solid. Funderburk has the best stuff from the left side of anyone right now, but he's a rookie still working on command. And while Thielbar's last several appearances have looked much better, I don't know that I'm even close to saying he's "fixed" at this point. So I'm one of those that would be interested  in a LH arm for the pen if the right deal can be found.

3) Martin...when back healthy...and Margot are a bit redundant on the roster. But Margot has the advantage of experience. And after a horrible start, Margot got himself hot about a month or so ago and has done nice work. Can he keep it up? Maybe...maybe not. He can always be cut in favor of keeping the younger Martin,  or, replaced with a trade if they can find a deal that they really like at the deadline. But it had better be a smart option otherwise why not just stick with Martin instead? But a healthy Lewis, Lee up now, Wallner HOPEFULLY ready to stick for good, all we need from the offense, IMO,  is to stay healthy and just keep doing what they've been doing.

This is a really nice ballclub. They're on pace for more than 90 wins, even though they're playing at about a 100 win pace currently. I don't expect a major addition,  but I can see room for a couple rentals if the price is right. I don't think anyone wants to see the system wiped out by big cost for a couple short term options. But if the right move is there, and the cost is right, I say make an add or two and let's see what happens.

But I think this team is pretty good as is. I'm just surprised they're about as good as I expected, but just in different ways and with different contributors than I expected when the season began. 

[Linus]

I’m really enjoying this version of the Twins. The lineup is more consistent scoring runs on a game by game basis and they are more fun to watch with less of the three true outcome approach. Bullpen has been a little iffy but can’t fault the FO as they brought in plenty of guys they just lost several to injury.  I think the pen will set up nicely for the playoffs however. 
I am still really concerned about starting pitching depth. If one of the top three go down we are in trouble. My other concern is just cleaning up some of the basics where they seem to make too many mistakes. Bright spot in this regard was Brooks Lees comment on why he left a slow roller to Correa: “ there was a chance the runner on second would take third if I cut across and took the ball so I left it for Carlos”. That kind of thinking is music to my ears. 

[arby58]

4 hours ago, bean5302 said:

Nathan was a HoF caliber closer. No reason he shouldn't be in there. He was arguably the most dominant closer in all of baseball (including Mariano Rivera) for several years, and even with anybody over a 7 year peak. Liriano was a upper/mid rotation arm in his prime (better than Joe Ryan), and Bonser was serviceable as a back end starter. Like many fans... if only. If only Radke wasn't trying to pitch with a broken shoulder. If only Liriano hadn't torn his UCL. The Twins would be World Series Champions in 2006.

Comparing Nathan to Rivera as a 'dominant closer' is not going to come out well for Nathan. The 'glamor stats' are lopsided in Rivera's favor: he finished 2nd, 3rd (three times), 5th and 8th in Cy Young balloting. Nathan was 4th once and 5th once. Rivera got significant MVP votes in 9 seasons, including 9th twice 11th once, and 12th once. Nathan got those votes twice - 12th and 18th. Rivera was an All Star 13 times, Nathan 6. Of course, he was also the only player ever unanimously selected on the first ballot to the HOF - Nathan is not there.

So go to an advanced stat, WAR. Nathan's 16 seasons produced 26.7 WAR. Rivera's 19 seasons produced 56.3. In the 8 comparable seasons when Nathan was closing for the Twins, his WAR was 18.3, and Rivera's was 27.3. Yes, in two of those seasons, Nathan had a higher WAR, but that is certainly not 'several years.' Nathan was very good, but Rivera was other-worldly.

[Riverbrian]

3 hours ago, JD-TWINS said:

2 things:

1) depth comes from the 40-man roster (that’s what I was eluding to with the expansion to 45)

2) Margot’s role entering the season was RH bat to help in a predominantly LH spot in LF or RF, as needed. He has .899 OPS from June 1 to July 3.

I get your criticism of FO in general but you offer no solutions - are there (were there) a bunch of multi faceted hitters out there to bring in on a budget in the offseason?? Who might they be, these players with no faults?

When you say I offer no solutions. I've written about 1,000 pages on the subject. 

Are you asking because we had to have Manual Margot... If Not Manual... By God who else is out there? 

Are you asking me to name names? I haven't done that. Are you requiring me to pull a Lars Nootbaar or something out of the air? 

I'm sorry if that's the case... It's not going to happen. I don't offer faux trades and assume they execute because I say so.  

It's good that Manual Margot has .899 OPS from June 1 to July 3. You mention that a lot... That's awesome... Let's get him in the lineup every day. 

[Beast]

Things really couldn’t have gone much better for the Twins.  If you would’ve told anybody to give a projected stat line for guys getting regular playing time, nearly everyone has exceed expectations.  Wallner and Julien’s struggles and Royce’s injuries are about the only things that went wrong, and they were pretty easily replaced with Lee, Castro, etc.  

Pitching wasn’t great, but if you look at the bullpen’s numbers, there’s not really a surprise there.  Take out one awful start from Ober, and he’s been as good as we could’ve hoped for (and is staying healthy).  Ryan has exceeded expectations.  SWR has far exceeded expectations.

On top of that, they’ve had a fairly easy schedule.

I expected them to be worse.  It’ll be more difficult to maintain this pace in the second half, but if the offense continues scoring like this, they’ll be fine.  There’s still a real chance of missing the playoffs altogether.  Boston, the Rays, Houston, etc are all hanging around.  One or two tough weeks could make the outlook much different.

 

[JD-TWINS]

1 hour ago, Riverbrian said:

When you say I offer no solutions. I've written about 1,000 pages on the subject. 

Are you asking because we had to have Manual Margot... If Not Manual... By God who else is out there? 

Are you asking me to name names? I haven't done that. Are you requiring me to pull a Lars Nootbaar or something out of the air? 

I'm sorry if that's the case... It's not going to happen. I don't offer faux trades and assume they execute because I say so.  

It's good that Manual Margot has .899 OPS from June 1 to July 3. You mention that a lot... That's awesome... Let's get him in the lineup every day. 

Somebody’s gotta play. There are no perfect teams. I mention it a lot (his improved OPS) because it’s real (not some opinion) and not just some complaint about how the FO should do better. I could care less if they cut Margot at midnight but if they do there better be somebody that’s better ready to go. The bad news is they don’t have a crystal ball for who that might be.

[Road trip]

1 hour ago, JD-TWINS said:

Somebody’s gotta play. There are no perfect teams. I mention it a lot (his improved OPS) because it’s real (not some opinion) and not just some complaint about how the FO should do better. I could care less if they cut Margot at midnight but if they do there better be somebody that’s better ready to go. The bad news is they don’t have a crystal ball for who that might be.

What's real is his total OPS for the year, not an arbitrary June 1 to July 3, which you conveniently cut off before his 1 for 13 streak since July 3.  Oh, and he was a below average fielder and hitter last year too.

Last year we watched the FO hang on to Joey Gallo for far too long.  It's a pattern at this point, holding on to veterans who are past their prime.  Gallo at least contributed a very low .5 WAR for the year.  It will take a minor miracle for Margot to get to 0 WAR because his defense is far worse than Gallo's was.  

Unfortunately better players will be sent to the minors soon enough so that Margot can stay.... likely the moment Austin Martin comes off the IL.  While Martin also has his flaws, he's young enough to have upside and he's been better than Margot this year.  

 

 

[wabene]

8 hours ago, Riverbrian said:

When you say I offer no solutions. I've written about 1,000 pages on the subject. 

Are you asking because we had to have Manual Margot... If Not Manual... By God who else is out there? 

Are you asking me to name names? I haven't done that. Are you requiring me to pull a Lars Nootbaar or something out of the air? 

I'm sorry if that's the case... It's not going to happen. I don't offer faux trades and assume they execute because I say so.  

It's good that Manual Margot has .899 OPS from June 1 to July 3. You mention that a lot... That's awesome... Let's get him in the lineup every day. 

I would've preferred they got the Automatic Margot, 😀

[Riverbrian]

12 hours ago, JD-TWINS said:

Somebody’s gotta play. There are no perfect teams. I mention it a lot (his improved OPS) because it’s real (not some opinion) and not just some complaint about how the FO should do better. I could care less if they cut Margot at midnight but if they do there better be somebody that’s better ready to go. The bad news is they don’t have a crystal ball for who that might be.

He has hit left handers very well during the time frame you have chosen. 

He's probably going to remain on the roster because he has done that. My argument is that he shouldn't. 

I don't want to tear apart Margot to make my point. His numbers are a low bar and somebody's got to play doesn't work for me. 

I'll just rephrase and go back to the beginning.

There are not enough left handers in major league baseball for the front office to over focus on them. Margot (and Farmer) are on the roster to face left handers. 

There are not enough left handed pitchers in the league to commit two roster spots for the purpose of keeping our left handed hitters away from them. That's two of your 3 extra spots. 

The lack of left handed pitching and all of those injuries and poor performance that you pointed out earlier means that Margot and Farmer will face more right handed pitchers because they are taking up two of the 3 extra spots... Like you said... Somebody's gotta play and that's who is left to play. So whatever you gain facing left handers... you give right back when they face more right handers. 

Those two roster spots should go to someone who can at least hit right handed pitching better and on that front Margot and Farmer are a very low bar.

If you bring in some players who can do better against right handers... you can push Larnach, Santana and Kepler for playing time and if successful that deepens the lineup against 75% of the pitching.

Larnach, Santana and Kepler are doing OK... if you want to settle for what has been average production at best.     

If you don't try to upgrade those two spots. If you leave Farmer and Margot in their roles of attacking the left handers. Larnach, Santana and Kepler are cemented in average with no competition. You can't improve the offense... you just settle for what you got.

I fully admit the offense in total has been great thus far so it's not a bad place to settle. However... your list of injuries and poor performance are still going to happen in July, August and September and October.   

In a nutshell... Constantly search for better. Cull from the bottom until the bottom is raised. Focus on the 75%.  

[twinfan]

On 7/11/2024 at 11:14 AM, bean5302 said:

Who are these 3 playoff caliber starters you're referencing?
Joe Ryan (who has collapsed every 2nd half in his career),
Simeon Woods Richardson (117 IP last year on pace for 160 IP this year)... and?
Lopez = 5.11 ERA
Ober = 4.14 ERA
Paddack = 5.18 ERA

I think the Twins are looking pretty dicey at those playoff caliber starters right now.
 

I still think Lopez, Ryan and Ober can get the job done. I'm not sold on W-R. Ok, so let's get another starter.