Swapping Kirilloff for Martin Magnifies Minnesota's Matchup Problems

[Nick Nelson]

It's no secret that Rocco Baldelli likes to embrace the platoon advantage, a tendency that is well supported by data. Unfortunately, recent roster moves are making it increasingly hard for him to build optimized lineups against the very pitchers that have stymied the Twins offense.

Image courtesy of Jesse Johnson-USA TODAY Sports

It's hard to argue with the decision to demote Alex Kirilloff to the minors, in a vacuum. His latest performance -- 0-for-4 with three strikeouts in a one-run loss to the Rockies on Tuesday -- punctuated a lengthy slump that saw him slash .143/.221/.325 with six extra-base hits since the start of May. 

It's also hard to argue with the decision to promote Austin Martin as a corresponding move, in a vacuum. Martin has been an on-base machine since returning to Triple-A, posting a .449 OBP with 18 walks in 78 plate appearances. That's the kind of discipline and consistency Minnesota's lineup could use.

The problem with swapping out Kirilloff for Martin, nine days after demoting Edouard Julien to make room for Royce Lewis, is that it further skews the problematic balance of lefty/righty bats on this roster, which has already been forced to make do without Matt Wallner, who was expected to be a key threat versus right-handed pitchers.

Manager Rocco Baldelli will now be hard-pressed to fill out an optimized lineup against righties, who have been a critical pain point for the Twins offense. Minnesota has actually performed quite well against lefties, slashing .266/.312/.429 in 631 plate appearances against them, with Wednesday's ambush of Colorado southpaw Austin Gomber serving as the latest success story. 

Against righties, the Twins have been significantly worse, slashing .227/.307/.394 for an OPS that is 40 points lower. That is an issue, of course, because right-handed pitchers are far more prevalent: 75% of Minnesota's total PAs have come against RHP, which is pretty standard.

Replacing Kirilloff and Julien with righty bats leaves the Twins with just two pure left-handed hitters on the roster: Max Kepler and Trevor Larnach. Kepler has of course been mired in a massive slump (.389 OPS in his past 18 games) and Larnach always seems at risk of falling into one. Beyond them, you have a switch-hitter in Carlos Santana, who has been better against lefties than righties this year and in his career, and another in Willi Castro, for whom the same applies. 

From there, it's all righties. For now, that might not feel like such a bad thing -- Twins RH batters have a respectable .715 OPS against RH pitchers, which is 9% better than the league average -- but you have to wonder how that's going to hold up if Baldelli is forced to write in the names of Martin, Jose Miranda, Manuel Margot and Kyle Farmer against righty starters too frequently. 

Here's what the three demoted lefty hitters did against right-handed pitching last year, and what the Twins are missing:

• Julien: .274/.401/.497 (360 PA)
• Kirilloff: .300/.373/.485 (263 PA)
• Wallner: .281/.409/.561 (208 PA)

Losing all that outstanding production is a pretty clear-cut prime culprit in the team's overall offensive woes. I'm not saying that keeping them around was necessarily going to be the solution, but stacking the entire roster with right-handed bats also doesn't seem to be it. In order to truly get their lagging lineup on track, it's imperative for the Twins to get at least one of these lefty bats back on the roster in functional form, and preferably two or all three. There is plenty more right-handed pitching ahead.

 

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[Jocko87]

It returned the balance of L and R hitters that seemed off after Lewis came back. The positions will be a little different but plenty of pieces to move around.

My first thought was that Wallner was coming back and I was thinking it would be even tougher to make lineups in that case with only outfield/DH available. Maybe part of Martin being the choice is that he fits the balance better.

[arby58]

I'm a big fan of veterans, but I would not be surprised if Farmer gets DFA'd at some point in the next month or so and Wallner gets promoted. Or Julien. Or Lee. Whenever one comes up, Farmer going down is the only logical move.

[Brandon]

10 minutes ago, arby58 said:

I'm a big fan of veterans, but I would not be surprised if Farmer gets DFA'd at some point in the next month or so and Wallner gets promoted. Or Julien. Or Lee. Whenever one comes up, Farmer going down is the only logical move.

I doubt it.  Farmer has gone from a .044 average to a .192 average.  he is back on track and needs more time to get his average back up.  If he is released now its because of what happened in April.  Being that its June that would be silly.

[chpettit19]

The problem only arises if too many of your righties can't hit righties. The Twins platoon to avoid lefties hitting lefties, not righties hitting righties. The problem is that the righties they match with the lefties in platoons can't hit righties. If you're going to go to the extremes the Twins want to go to to avoid lefties hitting lefties you can't have so many righties that can't hit righties. 

The problem isn't in the number of righties they have, it's the quality of righties.

[Riverbrian]

Thanks for this article @Nick Nelson

This is the price that you pay when you spend 15 million dollars in the off-season to roster 3 players who hit left handers and struggle against right handers. 6 million on Farmer, 5 million on Santana and 4 million on Margot and we didn't have the 15 million to spend.  

We added 3 players to the roster with stronger stats against left handers and weaker stats against right handers... just to protect the three young left handers.  AND... AND purposely placing development roadblocks to make the OVERALL WELL ROUNDED development more challenging for these young left handed hitters. AND... AND... Let's not forget that Lee (Better against lefties) and Erod are on deck. 

The Twins front office clearly over corrected in an attempt to protect our three young left handed hitters. They are now all gone and we got a pile of something not intended at the moment. We are set up great to face left handers and set up poorly to face right handers. 

I'll add another point to the great points you make in this great article. 

With the addition of Martin and the demotion of Kirilloff. We are currently overstocked with batters who stand in the right handed batters box against left handed pitching. We have 11 on the current roster but let's call it 10 with two of the players being catchers. The lineup card only allows for 9. Someone is going to sit against left handers consistently or you are rotating players to sit against left handers that pop up 25% of the time. 

Here's another point that I'll add to the great points that you make in this great article. 

Kepler and Larnach are the two remaining lefties. There is no way that they are going to start against lefties now. Two of the right handed hitters will platoon the right side for a total of 4 players committed to the platoon.

Once you consider that two roster spots go to catchers... this means that 7 players will have to face both right handers and left handers... 6 at least of the 7 in every lineup. Lewis, Correa, Buxton, Castro, Miranda, Santana and ???... I have no idea who the 7th player will be but It won't be Kepler or Larnach or the catchers. That leaves Margot, Farmer and Martin to play every day or a rotation is set up amongst the three or two of them. 

How's it going to work? 

DH - Miranda

C - Jeffers/Vazquez

1B - Santana

2B - Castro/Farmer

3B - Lewis

SS - Correa

LF - Larnach/Castro

CF - Buxton

RF - Kepler/Margot 

Martin pinch running and playing CF when Buxton gets a maintenance day? Maybe in addition to a rotation with Margot and Farmer against the dreaded lefty? 

(Late Addition to this post - 1st lineup out against a RH... Martin in and Miranda out). 

The roster was set up all pretty for platoon in 3 spots coming out of spring training providing nobody got hurt or nobody struggled. It stopped being pretty when the first injury happened and injuries were always going to happen. 

It has gotten really ugly when all 3 young left handed hitters were sent to the minors and players struggling is an every year occurrence. 

Anyway... We are set against the left handers that we will face 25% of the time. We better be... We spent 15 million that we don't have attacking it. 

I've come to the conclusion that we would have been better off attacking the 75% and fight through the 25% with the hope that the young left handed batters develop into better hitters against left handed pitchers through more exposure.    

[MMMordabito]

Once Keirsey gets healthy, give Farmer's 40-man spot to him.

Then, Wallner, Keirsey, Kirilloff and Julien can battle for the 26-man spot.  

If two of them figure it out, then DFA Margot and give his 40-man spot to Helman and he can battle Martin.

The Twins should have the positional flexibility to do this, and it would be fun to watch.

What they'll probably do is just keep making us watch the boring, declining, sub-replacement level vets that are Margot and Farmer.

[Riverbrian]

And of course: 

Castro, Santana, Farmer and Margot are 4 players who were rostered not to be starters and all 4 have clearly better career stats against left handed pitching. 

Have thus far combined for 476 PA's against right handed pitching in 2024 with Castro #1 and Santana #2 on the list.

Divide that by 4 and you have an average of 119 PA's against right handed pitching. 

Ryan Jeffers currently leads the team in plate appearances against left handed pitching with... (Dramatic Pause)... Ladies and Gentlemen... 69 PA's.  

We are providing an average of 119 sub-par PA's to avoid what would be a maximum of 69 sub-par PA's but in reality average out to 57 PA's. Based on Kepler, Julien, Larnach and Wallner having a combined 47 PA's against lefties this year. For an average of 12 each.  

Individually:

Castro - 184 vs RH - 59 vs LH --- .710 OPS vs RH - .955 OPS vs LH

Santana - 169 vs RH - 58 vs LH --- .679 OPS vs RF - .834 OPS vs LH

Margot - 63 vs RH - 65 vs LH --- .502 vs OPS vs RH -  .785 OPS vs LH

Farmer - 60 vs RH - 53 vs LH --- .525 OPS vs RH - .607 vs LH

We are giving up more than we are getting. Every batter is at least close to 50% against right handed pitching when 25% of pitching is left handed... We are giving up more than we are getting!!!

They played the platoon split incorrectly and have accidently created a disadvantage trying to gain an advantage. 

With all of the analytics produced by the front office. They missed this rather large thing.  

 

[BH67]

I awoke today to find TD telling me why Alex Kiriloff had to be sent down. I prepare for my afternoon to find TD telling me about new matchup problems as a result of his replacement.

I read both articles and the tone for each was measured and not panicky. I get the impression that the current dilemma will last only a short time. That's good.

Seeing the clickbait headlines made me think otherwise. It may draw more attention to the articles, but still, that's not good. Online news aggregation sites engage in this tactic to an extreme degree, and thankfully that's not a problem here.

I'm a Twins optimist but not a Pollyanna. I perceive that matters relating to team tactics at TD are conveyed usually through a glass half empty. The information and statistical data here are excellent, so I keep reading, but I have to brace for the initial reaction.

[arby58]

22 minutes ago, Brandon said:

I doubt it.  Farmer has gone from a .044 average to a .192 average.  he is back on track and needs more time to get his average back up.  If he is released now its because of what happened in April.  Being that its June that would be silly.

The issue isn't his 'improving average' it is that he brings little else offensively. He's still below .600 OPS, which is really bad, and has a negative WAR. I like veterans, but there is little that is dynamic about his bat - suspect they will want more later in the season.

[bean5302]

We're not playing last year over again, though. We're looking at what players are doing this year.

Lewis RHB vs. RHP = .318/.375/.909 OPS 1.284
Miranda RHB vs RHP = .285/.323/.491 OPS .814
Larnach LHB vs. RHP = .256/.321/.436 OPS .757
Kirilloff LHB vs RHP = .203/.271/.392 OPS .663
Julien LHB vs RHP = .207/.309/.367 OPS .676
Kepler LHB vs. RHP = .235/.300/.390 OPS .690
Margot RHB vs. RHP = .182/.260/.242 OPS .503

Seems like Lewis and Miranda are just fine not being platooned... because they're better than the lefty bats who the Twins would actually use as platoon hitters against RHP.

[Brandon]

8 minutes ago, arby58 said:

The issue isn't his 'improving average' it is that he brings little else offensively. He's still below .600 OPS, which is really bad, and has a negative WAR. I like veterans, but there is little that is dynamic about his bat - suspect they will want more later in the season.

on April 26 Farmer was 3 hits in 47 AB with 1 2B and 6 BB and 2HBP for a line of .064 / .200 / .085  for a .285 OPS

since he is 17 for 57 with 7 2bs and 4 BB and 3 HBP for a line of .298 /  .375 / .421 for an OPS of .796  

Seems to me like he is hitting pretty good overall since he ended his slump on April 26th to me.

 

[Doctor Gast]

I agree with Brian that too often this FO likes to major in minor details & miss the big picture. 

Yet it's very unfortunate that our LH hitters Wallner & Julien are having swing problems, Kiriloff (?) and Keirsey is on the IL, not available, But what can we do? Martin isn't too bad against RHPs & he's a spark plug. We are at a soft spot in our schedule. Hopefully, soon any combination of Lee, Keirsey, Kiriloff, Julien & Wallner will become available to where they are forced to make a decision on RH-sided Farmer, Margot & Santana, even though they're hitting better.

They convince sports writers that MN big need for the deadline is a corner RH bat.(?)

[MABB1959]

It would be nice to go back to pre-analytics days and just have the same line-up most days.  Hate sitting guys just in case they may get hurt or need days off for rest.

I hate all the stats and analysis.  Taking away from baseball.

[ashbury]

Our lefties weren't clobberizin' right handed pitchers.  What else is the manager, and eventually the FO, supposed to do? 

Correa, Jeffers and Miranda all have higher OPS hitting from the right side against RHP than any Twins left hander.  Lefties who can't hit righties with authority are of no damn use; one by one, they're going to be told to step aside and let someone else have a turn.

I don't know if Rocco so much prefers platooning, as he merely plays the roster he's got (and certainly he does have input on that, given the talent pool to choose from).  He'll do what any analytically minded manager will do, and pick out the hitters with the best chances against that game's starting pitcher.  It's a rare team that doesn't have a bat or two that belongs at the bottom of the order, against certain pitchers, and Rocco will cope.  Filling out an optimized lineup is chasing ghosts, when the hitters themselves don't perform.

[DJL44]

24 minutes ago, MABB1959 said:

It would be nice to go back to pre-analytics days and just have the same line-up most days.  Hate sitting guys just in case they may get hurt or need days off for rest.

I hate all the stats and analysis.  Taking away from baseball.

Quote

As manager of the Boston Braves, George Stallings employed platoons during the 1914 season, which helped the "Miracle" Braves win the 1914 World Series.[10] No Braves outfielder reached 400 at-bats during the 1914 season.

 

[Riverbrian]

16 minutes ago, ashbury said:

Our lefties weren't clobberizin' right handed pitchers.  What else is the manager, and eventually the FO, supposed to do? 

The front office shouldn't have set up the roster in the preseason this way. 

Now that it is set up this way. 

I agree with you when you ask... What is Rocco supposed to do?  Indeed... what is he supposed to do?. Same question you ask a person who is painted into a corner. Gonna have to leave some footprints getting out of it. Probably ruin your shoes. 

 

[Linus]

34 minutes ago, ashbury said:

Our lefties weren't clobberizin' right handed pitchers.  What else is the manager, and eventually the FO, supposed to do? 

Correa, Jeffers and Miranda all have higher OPS hitting from the right side against RHP than any Twins left hander.  Lefties who can't hit righties with authority are of no damn use; one by one, they're going to be told to step aside and let someone else have a turn.

I don't know if Rocco so much prefers platooning, as he merely plays the roster he's got (and certainly he does have input on that, given the talent pool to choose from).  He'll do what any analytically minded manager will do, and pick out the hitters with the best chances against that game's starting pitcher.  It's a rare team that doesn't have a bat or two that belongs at the bottom of the order, against certain pitchers, and Rocco will cope.  Filling out an optimized lineup is chasing ghosts, when the hitters themselves don't perform.

This. There has been a lot of discussion about the whole left / right platoon debate. The real problem is that too many of our hitters have been bad no matter which box they stand in. Farmer has damn near been hung in effigy while the person who was getting 75% of the at bats was nearly as bad. The Twins just need more good hitters - period. 

[LA Vikes Fan]

Actually, Miranda is better against RH pitching - .814 OPS v .669 against L:H pitching. So is Correa, .855 v. .698, and Jeffers, .822 v .772. The year to date stats may be a little misleading since they include LH at bats against RH pitching by Wallner,  .531 against RH pitching, Julien at .673, and Santana at .679. Wallner and Julien are in the minors now. Swap out Santana for Miranda at 1B against some RH pitching and the problem lessens quite a bit. Plus RH hitters tend to hit same sided pitching better than LH hitters. I'm not too worried about this.  

We still have the Miranda/Margot platoon in LF, and now Castro is available to play RF against LH pitching where he has a .955 OPS, instead  of Kepler if we let Martin take over 2B.  

[Craig Arko]

The L-R alternation in a batting order is fine when it works. Sometimes you need to adopt Plan B,

[bean5302]

28 minutes ago, Linus said:

This. There has been a lot of discussion about the whole left / right platoon debate. The real problem is that too many of our hitters have been bad no matter which box they stand in. Farmer has damn near been hung in effigy while the person who was getting 75% of the at bats was nearly as bad. The Twins just need more good hitters - period. 

I don't exactly agree.

The problem was this front office's (and Baldelli's) ironclad belief in a huge platoon advantage to the point it was acceptable to assume pretty much all left handed batters were nothing more than platoon specialists, and the failure to understand an average left handed batter is not better against RHP than a good right handed batter.

This front office (which Baldelli is tied to)
A) Constructed a roster designed around platoons, wasting limited resources
B) Never gave their LHB the opportunity to prove they could hit LHP.
C) Deployed platoons poorly, in ways that would always limit the success of their strategy
D) Annoyed me, personally, on at least 3 occasions. <--- this is the real dealbreaker.

[stringer bell]

Castro was much better against right handed pitching than left handed pitching last year. His career splits aren't very wide. I'm fairly comfortable with Willi from either side of the plate.

Frankly, since May 1, Santana has been better against any pitching than Kirilloff. 

Shielding left handed pitchers against left handed pitchers is fairly easily done. It's really hard to do the reverse (shield righties from righties). Personally, I would like to see more consistency from all of the hitters.

[purplesoldier4u]

3 hours ago, Riverbrian said:

Thanks for this article @Nick Nelson

... and we didn't have the 15 million to spend.

Most would argue that the loss of less than $9 million in television revenue idicates they still had plenty to spend.

[jkcarew]

My favorite (not) feature of the patented Rocco batting order is his insistence on alternating righties and lefties….only to replace the the lefties as soon as a left-handed pitcher enters.

What’s the point when you know you’re just going to yank the left-handed hitter anyway? How about just optimizing the order for the starter??

[jkcarew]

3 hours ago, ashbury said:

Our lefties weren't clobberizin' right handed pitchers.  

Clobberization = Exit Velocity x Launch Angle

 

I had to look it up.

[ashbury]

1 hour ago, jkcarew said:

Clobberization = Exit Velocity x Launch Angle

 

I had to look it up.

It's in all the undergraduate engineering textbooks and quite a few sabrmetric papers too.  😀

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

4 hours ago, DJL44 said:

 

Is this satire disguised as argument or vice versa? Is this even factual? 

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

5 hours ago, MABB1959 said:

It would be nice to go back to pre-analytics days and just have the same line-up most days.  Hate sitting guys just in case they may get hurt or need days off for rest.

I hate all the stats and analysis.  Taking away from baseball.

I actually agree with this to a large degree. I have not been following as closely as in past years, but I think there is room for some team to succeed by just having more every day players who know how to play defense at a primary position and just put more balls in play. 

[old nurse]

5 hours ago, MABB1959 said:

It would be nice to go back to pre-analytics days and just have the same line-up most days.  Hate sitting guys just in case they may get hurt or need days off for rest.

I hate all the stats and analysis.  Taking away from baseball.

The problem is too many people are placing an emphasis on winning. They wouldn’t have to worry the least bit about stats and injuries if they din’t care about winning. Medical bills are also outrageously expensive, but why should the average fan care about a player’s health? 

[stringer bell]

5 minutes ago, Hosken Bombo Disco said:

I actually agree with this to a large degree. I have not been following as closely as in past years, but I think there is room for some team to succeed by just having more every day players who know how to play defense at a primary position and just put more balls in play. 

Good players will play and be regulars as Carlos Correa, a healthy Buxton and Royce Lewis demonstrate. Maximizing the talents of of lesser players is what teams and their managers aspire to do. Casey Stengel platooned at several positions and won world championships for the New York Yankees. Tom Kelly also used players in platoons. The Twins and probably 20 other teams are trying to build winning teams with some great players and some less than great players who fill roles. 

The one thing that Baldelli does that old style managers really didn't do is pinch hit early in games. I guess the analytics say that you take the chance and make the move early. 

I hope the team develops more everyday players. Maybe Emmanuel Rodriguez and Walker Jenkins could be two candidates and they both hit left handed.