Why the Twins Were Right to Demote Alex Kirilloff to Minors

[Matthew Taylor]

The Minnesota Twins have made a difficult but necessary decision by demoting Alex Kirilloff.  According to the team website's transaction page, the Minnesota Twins have optioned the left-handed hitter to Triple-A.

Image courtesy of © Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports

The demotion of Alex Kirilloff might come as a surprise to some who remember him as a stud, top-20 global prospect, but it shouldn't be shocking to anyone who has been following the Twins closely this year. On the season, Kirilloff has posted a disappointing .669 OPS, and the trend line had been pointed steeply downward. After an encouraging start with a .754 OPS in April, he slumped to a .613 OPS in May and hit rock bottom in June, going 2-for-23 with a .360 OPS. He hasn’t recorded a multi-hit game since May 25 and has only managed two such games all season.

While some might have pointed to his underlying statistics as a sign of potential improvement, even those numbers painted a grim picture. Kirilloff's expected batting average (xBA) sat at .220, only marginally better than his actual .206. His expected slugging percentage (xSLG) was .442, compared to his actual .394, and his expected weighted on-base average (xWOBA) was .312, slightly above his actual .292. These expected metrics suggested a minor regression to the mean, but even in the best-case scenario, Kirilloff would still have been an underwhelming hitter.

Injuries may have played a role in his struggles, whether they were current, unreported issues, or lingering effects from his previous wrist or shoulder surgeries. Regardless of the cause, Kirilloff simply wasn’t the same batter the Twins hoped he would be when he was first called up as a top prospect. Instead of driving the ball with authority, he had been hitting grounders at an alarming rate, with a ground ball percentage (GB%) nearing 50%.

What made Kirilloff’s offensive struggles even more pronounced for the Twins were his limitations on the defensive side of the ball. As a strict corner bat, offensive production is even more pivotal from him, as it is the easiest offensive production to replace. To make matters worse, he wasn’t even fielding those positions well, with a -4 Outs Above Average output in the field this season.

Given his prolonged struggles and the team's pressing need for offensive production (save for Wednesday's performance against the Rockies), the Twins could not afford to keep Kirilloff in the lineup. Over the past 17 games, the Twins had scored three runs or fewer in eight of them. Changes were necessary, and Kirilloff, who still had minor-league options, was the logical choice to be sent down.

The name that will be promoted in Kirilloff's place is still yet to be announced. The Twins have viable alternatives waiting in the wings. Matt Wallner, boasting a scorching 1.113 OPS with four home runs for the Saints in June in eight games, and Austin Martin, who has posted an .818 OPS while getting on base 46% of the time since mid-May, both offer more promise at the plate at the moment. Either would also be a defensive upgrade, with Wallner's arm in the outfield and Martin’s positional flexibility all over the field. According to reports Wednesday night, Martin is getting the nod.

With 880 najor-league plate appearances and nearly 1,500 as a professional, it’s not a slam dunk that sending Kirilloff down to Triple-A will fix him as a player, or that he has any more to learn. The truth is, however, that the Twins could not sit around and wait any longer for him to figure it out at the MLB level. Demoting Alex Kirilloff is a tough but necessary decision that could help reignite their offense and give the team a much-needed spark. Hopefully, it's not the last we'll hear of Kirilloff, but given his age and track record, that's become a legitimate question.

Do you think the Twins made the right choice in demoting Alex Kirilloff? How should they redistribute playing time in his absence? Leave a comment below and start the conversation!

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[mikelink45]

I asked this question in the minor league report - what are the hitting coaches doing in MPLS?  Wallner, Kiriloff, Julien have all been sent down for hitting issues.  That is a lot of potential being lost. 

I think they had no choice but to send Alex down - but it is time to assess the massive coaching team for their abilities too. 

[Doctor Wu]

23 minutes ago, mikelink45 said:

I asked this question in the minor league report - what are the hitting coaches doing in MPLS?  Wallner, Kiriloff, Julien have all been sent down for hitting issues.  That is a lot of potential being lost. 

I think they had no choice but to send Alex down - but it is time to assess the massive coaching team for their abilities too. 

Agreed, They really HAD to make that move. If you had told me back in April, that Kiriloff, Julien AND Wallner would all be sent down to AAA I would not have believed you. Kiriloff and Julien especially seemed like solid hitters that wouldn't need such a demotion. Is it the fault of the hitting coaches, eyesight problems, or something else? I certainly don't know the answer, I can only hope ALL of these players can make the necessary adjustments and return to help the Twins ASAP. 

[dxpavelka]

The fact that Willi Castro leads the team in Games Played and Plate Appearances shows how flawed this team either IS or IS playing.  Not sure which.  Failure of high picks like Kirilloff and Larnach to produce is a symptom and a cause.

 

[CRF]

He had to go. He wasn't doing much of anything. Don't know if his injuries are the reason for his struggles, or something else. For what it's worth, and it's only my opinion, I always thought Larnach had more potential than Kirilloff. Might be time to deal AK and clear out some of the log jam. 

[MABB1959]

44 minutes ago, mikelink45 said:

I think they had no choice but to send Alex down - but it is time to assess the massive coaching team for their abilities too. 

All coaches including the majors.  Players seem to do good in AAA and come up and fizzle.  Not pretty when 2-3 in the line-up could/should go back to the minors.

[MABB1959]

8 minutes ago, dxpavelka said:

The fact that Willi Castro leads the team in Games Played and Plate Appearances shows how flawed this team either IS or IS playing.  Not sure which.  Failure of high picks like Kirilloff and Larnach to produce is a symptom and a cause.

 

So frustrating!  He got a fair chance a lot of playing time. They should give others that keep going back and forth a longer look/chance.  Otherwise let's take a good hard look at some of the youngsters.

[jimbo92107]

Wouldn't surprise me a bit if Kirilloff was hiding a recurrence of his wrist issue. Such a bummer that he can't swing the bat with the sudden explosion that made him a top hitting prospect, but what can the team do if he's just not performing?

[MABB1959]

13 minutes ago, Doctor Wu said:

Is it the fault of the hitting coaches, eyesight problems, or something else?

I think it is confidence.  They need to know they have a long term or at least 30 days to prove themselves instead of living with the fear of being sent down.  There ae 4-5 players we need to figure out what they have in the future instead of wasting time on Margot, Vazquez and Farmer.

[Twins_Fan_in_NJ]

It is becoming a recurring theme. Minor league talent reaches the majors, gets off to a great start, struggles, and then is either benched or demoted. 

It doesn't take MLB pitchers too long to make adjustments. Good hitters make the counter adjustments. Royce Lewis is the outlier. The rest of the Twins' young players do not seem capable of making those counter adjustments.

I wonder why that is...

[Riverbrian]

49 minutes ago, mikelink45 said:

Wallner, Kiriloff, Julien have all been sent down for hitting issues.  That is a lot of potential being lost. 

That's all of them. 

[Riverbrian]

Some reports on the web that it's Austin Martin heading North... umm... West. 

 

[David HK]

36 minutes ago, Doctor Wu said:

Agreed, They really HAD to make that move. If you had told me back in April, that Kiriloff, Julien AND Wallner would all be sent down to AAA I would not have believed you. Kiriloff and Julien especially seemed like solid hitters that wouldn't need such a demotion. Is it the fault of the hitting coaches, eyesight problems, or something else? I certainly don't know the answer, I can only hope ALL of these players can make the necessary adjustments and return to help the Twins ASAP. 

Maybe a new pair of specs would help.  It's worked before...

 

[arby58]

1 hour ago, mikelink45 said:

I asked this question in the minor league report - what are the hitting coaches doing in MPLS?  Wallner, Kiriloff, Julien have all been sent down for hitting issues.  That is a lot of potential being lost. 

This isn't just an issue for the Twins - young players often take time to figure things out. The most hyped rookie in all of MLB this year was Jackson Holiday - can't miss, number 1 prospect. Started the year with the Orioles and put up a -0.5 WAR and was sent to AAA. I think we as Twins fans sometimes get tunnel vision related to the team.

Meanwhile, we often complain about veterans with slow starts - did it last year with Kepler, this year with Santana - yet they figured it out and both are solid contributors. They're veterans.

[bighat]

This is a lesson to remember: prospects are never guaranteed. 

A few years ago, this board was full of people discussing the Twins lineup of the future, with Larnach and Kirilloff set in stone as the 3-4 hitters for the next decade. Due to this, most Twins fans agreed we didn't need LaMonte Wade, and were happy to unload him for any spare parts we could get in return. 

Today both Larnach and Kirilloff are nothing more than organizational depth, guys entering their late 20s with no real signature moments, unable to hit consistently at the major league level. One could easily argue that they've hurt the Twins far more than they've helped, as the organization has stuck by both of them for long stretches, waiting for them to come out of "slumps" that today look less like slumps...and more like these guys just being who they are. 

It's clear that by now the Twins front office has started looking elsewhere for the players that will make up the future core of this team. Kirilloff's window stayed open for a long time, he was handed starting jobs out of spring training multiple times and simply could never do anything with it. He's hurt, tired, and scuffling along in what appears to be the death throes of his major league career. 

So the next time you hear about the Twins next big "prospect", please approach the subject with a healthy dose of skepticism. Producing consistently at the major league level is incredibly difficult, even for the bluest of blue chip athletes. 

[Doctor Wu]

6 minutes ago, David HK said:

Maybe a new pair of specs would help.  It's worked before...

 

Honestly, that COULD be a problem for some of these guys. As you noted, it's helped other players in the past. Never hurts to check. Eyesight is, ugh, sort of important for these players. 

[MABB1959]

30 minutes ago, jimbo92107 said:

Wouldn't surprise me a bit if Kirilloff was hiding a recurrence of his wrist issue. Such a bummer that he can't swing the bat with the sudden explosion that made him a top hitting prospect, but what can the team do if he's just not performing?

He needs to go down but if he is injured they need to figure out how to help prevent injuries.  Seems many of the prospects are injury prone once they get here.

[MinnInPa]

no no no to Wallner..the guy cant hit anything...I dont see him ever working it out. Probably Martin or Hellman

[VivaBomboRivera!]

4 minutes ago, bighat said:

So the next time you hear about the Twins next big "prospect", please approach the subject with a healthy dose of skepticism. Producing consistently at the major league level is incredibly difficult, even for the bluest of blue chip athletes.

This.  And while we're at it, let's remember that these players are young, and they are human. The gods may grant them glory, or they may just allow a mug shot on the Baseball Reference page.

[Old Crow]

5 minutes ago, MinnInPa said:

no no no to Wallner..the guy cant hit anything...I dont see him ever working it out. Probably Martin or Hellman

Wallner still has that big loopy swing.

[Twins_Fan_in_NJ]

1 hour ago, mikelink45 said:

I asked this question in the minor league report - what are the hitting coaches doing in MPLS?  Wallner, Kiriloff, Julien have all been sent down for hitting issues.  That is a lot of potential being lost. 

I think they had no choice but to send Alex down - but it is time to assess the massive coaching team for their abilities too. 

I know I sound like a broken record - but if the Twins fired Popkins today, is there another MLB team that would hire him? His resume and track record are non-existent. 

[bighat]

5 minutes ago, VivaBomboRivera! said:

This.  And while we're at it, let's remember that these players are young, and they are human. The gods may grant them glory, or they may just allow a mug shot on the Baseball Reference page.

Agreed. To be out of work at age 28 with no backup plan would be incredibly strange - something most of us can't imagine. Glad the players' union protects their own! 

Of course there are other leagues that exist for AAAA type guys, if they want to play. There are often opportunities for guys like Alex to go play a few years down in Mexico, or head over to Korea or Japan. Great food and amazing cultures, and you get to experience all of it while batting .330 in front of a passionate fanbase! 

[wabene]

16 minutes ago, bighat said:

Today both Larnach and Kirilloff are nothing more than organizational depth, guys entering their late 20s with no real signature moments, unable to hit consistently at the major league level.

Larnach has a 115 OPS+ right now. So this year he has been consistently 15% better than the league average hitter. Not an all-star performance but a solid MLB regular. He could also get better. Larnach has adjusted. Miranda is at 118 OPS+, even better. He scuffled worse than Kirilloff during his sophomore season last year and has bounced back. Kirilloff and Wallner should not be written off yet. Sometimes patience is in short supply, lol.

It was the right time to send Alex down.

[Whitey333]

How can the young players, prospects, be expected to perform well at the major league level when many times they are relegated to part time status with the Twins.  They need to play regularly to develop.  To have them play a bench role or a role in Roccos strict platoon system seems ridiculous.  Perhaps Kirilloffs days as a Twin are numbered.  Perhaps also that the team handles their playing g time very poorly.  Perhaps also that many of these prospects are just not that good.  Perhaps our scouting and development personnel needs to be looked into.

[HrbieFan]

Alex needs to go back to spraying the ball and quit worrying about launch angle and pulling the ball.  He is a pure hitter, not a power hitter 

[Old Twins Hat]

26 minutes ago, MinnInPa said:

no no no to Wallner..the guy cant hit anything...I dont see him ever working it out. Probably Martin or Hellman

Ever since Michael Wacha proclaimed on National TV during the Houston playoff series that Wallner had a hole in his swing -- up and inside fastballs -- big enough to drive a truck through, Wallner has not been the same guy.

But, baseball is a game of adjustments and teams know his weakness as much as he does. 

[wabene]

11 minutes ago, Whitey333 said:

How can the young players, prospects, be expected to perform well at the major league level when many times they are relegated to part time status with the Twins.  They need to play regularly to develop.  To have them play a bench role or a role in Roccos strict platoon system seems ridiculous.  Perhaps Kirilloffs days as a Twin are numbered.  Perhaps also that the team handles their playing g time very poorly.  Perhaps also that many of these prospects are just not that good.  Perhaps our scouting and development personnel needs to be looked into.

Kirilloff has the 8th most plate appearances on the team. He has been given a more than fair chance this year. If you wanna play in the bigs, you gotta perform when called upon.

[Original_JB]

I don't want this to take this off the rails, but it made me wonder: do the Saints play the same "style" of baseball (meaning the Rocco heavy platoon and propensity to pull/pinch hit non-stop) as the Twins? I don't think I've ever heard anyone bring that up at all. If the young(ish) guys are playing all game, every day in a consistent batting order location at AAA, and are brought up to play the "Twins" way, it could be tough to find your rhythm with not only the upgrade in talent faced, but just even figuring out your "role" when being used in what might seem like an utterly random way compared to what you've been doing. So, to keep it short, do the Saints play the same style? If not, should they? Does anyone know if this has even been discussed (organizational SOP?).

[Andrew Bryz-Gornia]

1 hour ago, dxpavelka said:

The fact that Willi Castro leads the team in Games Played and Plate Appearances shows how flawed this team either IS or IS playing.  Not sure which.  Failure of high picks like Kirilloff and Larnach to produce is a symptom and a cause.

 

Castro is hitting well and has positional flexibility. It's an indictment on some of the other players hitting poorly, sure, but Castro deserves credit for earning his playing time, too.

[FlyingFinn]

22 minutes ago, Original_JB said:

do the Saints play the same "style" of baseball (meaning the Rocco heavy platoon and propensity to pull/pinch hit non-stop) as the Twins?

No, but all the minor league teams/coaches have a different mission than the Twins (whose mission is to win). They are to develop players, specifically ones that could make it to MLB. Those players play 5 or 6 games per week, bat in the top 4 in the batting order and don't get platooned in the minors.