How Much More Time Does Carlos Santana Have?

[Greggory Masterson]

It’s still early in the season, but it is also getting late for Carlos Santana amid an early-season funk.

Image courtesy of © Brian Bradshaw Sevald-USA TODAY Sports

One of the holes the Minnesota Twins were expected to fill over the offseason was the role of a right-handed hitter to pair with corner players like Alex Kirilloff, Max Kepler, Matt Wallner, and Trevor Larnach. The Twins opted to sign Carlos Santana to a smooth $5.25-million contract for his age-38 season. They also turned the starting first baseman's mitt over to the former All-Star and Silver Slugger.

Being the everyday first baseman was a larger role than many fans had anticipated for the aging player. Over the first 10 years of his career (2010-2019), he was a hitter 21 percent above average by OPS+. From 2020 to 2023, he was 6 percent below average (94 OPS+), hitting just .218. Even then, though, he drew walks and hit with a little pop.

Last year was a bit of a renaissance, as he had his first season since 2019 with an OPS+ above average (104), though that’s still not what a team hopes for out of a bat-first position. His elite defense offset this deficiency, as he led MLB first basemen in 2023 with 11 Defensive Runs Saved.

It’s not an ideal everyday first baseman, especially as Santana has not hit right-handed pitching well in several years, but if he’s on the roster, he will play. Unfortunately, the Twins' confidence in him being an everyday contributor has not been rewarded.

Through Sunday, April 21, Santana had played 17 of the Twins’ first 20 games, slashing an abysmal .133/.224/.150 as a first baseman and designated hitter, the two most bat-forward positions on the field. He’s also not getting any younger. He’s also striking out at a career-worst 21 percent clip.

No matter how good a player was in his 20s, Father Time comes for everyone, and Santana just turned 38 two weeks ago, far past the expiration date for most MLB players. So, what’s the outlook for a player like this? What are the odds that a player at this age can turn his season around? It’s still early, right? He has plenty of time to find his groove.

The turnaround I’m describing here has rarely happened in recent baseball history.

I dug up the 50 worst 17-game starts (10% of a season) to a season for players 37 and older by OPS since 1995. I threw some out if they didn’t regularly play (e.g., backup catchers, like 1999 Charlie O'Brien, 2014 José Molina, 2012 Henry Blanco, 2019 Erik Kratz, and 2004 Pat Borders; or those affected by injuries--like 2014 Jason Giambi, who played 17 games between April and September), leaving me with 36 players.

Among those players, Santana is off to the fifth-worst start in the last 30 years (even including the non-everyday players, he’s seventh-worst). The list has many aging corner outfielders, first basemen, and designated hitters, a few catchers—not known for their batting—and a sprinkling of center fielders and infielders.

Of the 36, 16 were beginning their last season in the majors. Eighteen played another year (though Gary Gaetti and So Taguchi only played 5 and 6 games, respectively, in their following seasons before retiring). Two—Santana and José Abreu (whose 2024 is the worst start on the list) are currently playing.

Of course, many players do retire after their age-37 season, even if it was moderately successful, so those numbers aren’t surprising. However, it’s worth checking to see how many players managed to turn their seasons around after their disastrous starts. What hope do Twins fans or Santana have for a turnaround?

Only five of the 34 players we have final results for ended the season with a league-average OPS or better (2015 Marlon Byrd, 100; 2015 Carlos Beltrán, 119; 2007 Gary Sheffield, 119; 2022 Justin Turner, 120; 2013 Raúl Ibañez, 123). A few also reached an OPS+ in the 90s: 2009 Gregg Zaun, 2006 Bernie Williams, 2021 Miguel Cabrera, 2002 Julio Franco, and 2017 Chase Utley.

Santana getting to a 90 OPS+ would be a victory. Perhaps I buried the lede a bit here: as of Sunday, he had a 13 OPS+ at .374. It’s hard to dig out of an early pit. Some of the above players—Byrd, Utley, and Cabrera—started in that range, so it could be possible.

However, most players were unable to dig themselves out. Half (17) ended their seasons with an OPS+ below 80, which is a complete impediment at first base. Eleven of those 17 retired (plus Gaetti and Taguchi, who were essentially done, which makes it 13). Among those players are Harold Baines, Hideki Matsui, Otis Nixon, Brady Anderson, Johnny Damon, and Wally Joyner.

Some of those players were coming off good years, too; aging is inevitable. Brian Giles went from an OPS+ of 138 to 52 from 2008 to 2009, then retired. Gaetti went from 121 in 1998 to 52 in 1999. Magglio Ordóñez fell from 129 in 2010 to 73 in 2011. Santana doesn’t have so lofty a starting point to lean on—it’s hard for fans to hope he regains his form when his form last season was four percent above average.

And so, how much time does he have? It partially depends on the context. Kirilloff is off to a good start this season, and José Miranda is showing a bit of life. But beyond that, the Twins’ other internal options at first base are players like Yunior Severino, Chris Williams, or Alex Isola--aging minor leaguers with no MLB experience.

Upon a player like Carlos Correa or Royce Lewis returning from injury, a roster crunch could threaten Santana’s job. There’s little precedent for a player rebounding from a start like this at his age, but the Twins have also been slow in recent years to move on from veteran depth. How much space to bounce back will he get? Only time will tell, but it’s not looking pretty for the player on the wrong side of 35.

View full article

[CRF]

I vote for a couple weeks ago. Is that ok?

[big dog]

I'd be happy to replace him but I'm pretty worried about what we'd get instead. I guess when Correa comes back it would let us keep either Larnach or Miranda. I'm in favor, once it's time to make a roster move.

[D.C Twins]

Given the FO previous record.... too much... waaaaay too much

[Mike Sixel]

I'm hoping zero games. Just zero. Move on to the younger players, at least they offer hope for the future (even if they don't turn out). For a team on a budget, with Miranda and Larnach and Severino and Williams and almost anyone cant play first (almost) and Kiriloff.....this signing made zero sense. Zero sense.

[RpR]

23 hours ago, big dog said:

I'd be happy to replace him but I'm pretty worried about what we'd get instead. I guess when Correa comes back it would let us keep either Larnach or Miranda. I'm in favor, once it's time to make a roster move.

Keep Larnach.

[4twinsJA]

No way FO/ownership releases anyone when still owing 90% of 5.25M contract. My prediction is playing time will decrease but will still be on team until August.

[RpR]

2 minutes ago, 4twinsJA said:

No way FO/ownership releases anyone when still owing 90% of 5.25M contract. My prediction is playing time will decrease but will still be on team until August.

All year.

[Oldgoat_MN]

I appreciate the research you put into this. Thank you. 

It should come as no surprise that the outlook is grim. To me signing Santana was a terrible idea. The odds that he was going to have even an above average year at the plate seemed far fetched. 

I think it's a real tribute to him that everyone says he is a wonderful person to have in the clubhouse.  Always fun to hear that a guy as talented as him is a positive force beyond what he brings to the field. 

However, as Gary Kasparov says, no one defeats Father Time.

[mikelink45]

I am afraid the FO is too invested in him and want to prove they made a good decision.  I do hope he rebounds, but right now I would put Miranda there. 

[CRF]

2 minutes ago, 4twinsJA said:

No way FO/ownership releases anyone when still owing 90% of 5.25M contract. My prediction is playing time will decrease but will still be on team until August.

Unfortunately, this is the way it's probably gonna play out. In fact, with reduced playing time, he might last the whole season. This FO are experts at that. 

[Parfigliano]

16 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

I'm hoping zero games. Just zero. Move on to the younger players, at least they offer hope for the future (even if they don't turn out). For a team on a budget, with Miranda and Larnach and Severino and Williams and almost anyone cant play first (almost) and Kiriloff.....this signing made zero sense. Zero sense.

It was a move made in order to be seen making a move and not just standing still.  It was a dumb waste of money by a team cutting payroll making it doubly dumb.

That said and with this teams past history they wont move off him until mid June.

[Karbo]

I didn't like the move in the first place. But I figured he would platoon with AK. Then they were saying full time and I wondered what they were smoking for that to make sense. Now it looks like they will be stuck with him. Ok, so just play him against lefties? But this management team is probably too stubborn to admit it was a terrible mistake.

[USAFChief]

Pro tip: before posting in this thread, check the following article to make sure you weren't "for it before you were against it."

 

[Doctor Gast]

I'm a defense guy and wish the Twins were more defensive-minded where it counts. But even for me 1B isn't a position where you worry about defense, you are concerned about production. Twins said they signed Santana mainly for his defense & plan for him to play every day. I'm a firm believer in Kiriloff, Miranda & Julien at 1B so I was completely against signing & locking (or any other capacity) Santana at 1B. Santana IMO was a very unnecessary risk & waste of money from the beginning. I'd DFA Santana a long time ago but I'm afraid we are stuck w/ him knowing this FO.

[USAFChief]

Summary: Mike Sixel, feel free to rip away.

The rest of you...careful

 

[Mike Sixel]

Just now, USAFChief said:

Summary: Mike Sixel, feel free to rip away.

The rest of you...careful

 

Phew. One right! Alas. 

[Doctor Gast]

4 minutes ago, USAFChief said:

Pro tip: before posting in this thread, check the following article to make sure you weren't "for it before you were against it."

 

I'm amazed on how so many who buy into the hype then later get amnesia. I can say I wasn't one of them & if I was, I hope I'd admit it.

[thelanges5]

50 minutes ago, CRF said:

Unfortunately, this is the way it's probably gonna play out. In fact, with reduced playing time, he might last the whole season. This FO are experts at that. 

Just like Gallo last year 👎🏻

[jkcarew]

25 minutes ago, USAFChief said:

Summary: Mike Sixel, feel free to rip away.

The rest of you...careful

 

Yeah…I thought he was just intended to be insurance against Kirilloff’s health, which seemed reasonable given Kirilloff’s track record. I even speculated that it might be an indicator that Kirilloff was behind in his recovery. I didn’t see him being an every day player with Kirilloff functional…and I didn’t see him being THIS anemic with the bat in his hands.

[stringer bell]

The $$$$ figure in here. Comparing Gallo to Santana, Gallo was 8-9 years younger, but his contract was more than double. So many players have started slowly--Farmer, Castro, Vázquez, Buxton, Margot, Kepler, and Wallner--that Santana's non-production doesn't stand out, but he's been brutal.

[stringer bell]

1 minute ago, jkcarew said:

Yeah…I thought he was just intended to be insurance against Kirilloff’s health, which seemed reasonable given Kirilloff’s track record. I didn’t see him being an every day player…and I didn’t see him being THIS anemic with the bat in his hands.

Santana has not been a part-time player. He's been a major league regular since 2011, exceeding 500 plate appearances every year except the COVID year (when he played every game).

[mickster]

When Correa comes back, I would expect Margo to be DFA's and then when Royce returns Sanata will go.   Keeping Martin, Larnach and Miranda.    Another injury scuttles this though..   Additionally I think that if Kepler gets hot he will be unloaded for a back end of the rotation arm.

[RpR]

14 minutes ago, thelanges5 said:

Just like Gallo last year 👎🏻

Without the home runs, but still better defense.

[Vanimal46]

This is a classic Twins FA signing we’ve seen so many times over the years. Late 30s/early 40s with their last good season being 2+ years before joining Minnesota. They almost never work out, and they end up spending way too much time on the MLB roster. 

[TwinsDr2021]

I thinks @nicksaviking has every right as well. I mean this comment has stood the test of time.

"Good lord no! Their moves are like drunk uncle at the wedding dance. Stop with the moves, my eyes can’t take it! "

I looked at the article and I didn't have a comment, but there are many comments of mine shortly after that says this was not a good move.

[BsuNemo]

13 minutes ago, mickster said:

When Correa comes back, I would expect Margo to be DFA's and then when Royce returns Sanata will go.   Keeping Martin, Larnach and Miranda. 

Zero chance of this happening with our management - wayyyy too much pride to dump even one of them let alone two!  Neither should have happened and both will go on wayyyy longer than they should.

[Twins_Fan_in_NJ]

I thought Santana was going to be good for a 20 HRs, a discerning eye at the plate and solid defense at 1B. He didn't just fall off a cliff. He feel into the Grand Canyon. In hindsight, re-signing Solano at half the price and using the leftovers for someone like Lorenzen would've been the move. But, alas. 

[DJL44]

37 minutes ago, USAFChief said:

Summary: Mike Sixel, feel free to rip away.

The rest of you...careful

I checked, my take holds up - signing Santana prevented them from signing someone better. Brandon Belt - who outhit every Twin except Royce Lewis in 2023 - is sitting at home waiting for someone to give him a job. Jose Miranda is showing that he's a better option as a RH platoon bat at 1B. Even if we assume a bounce back for Santana from terrible to mediocre. this is a simple move to make. Bench him until they can work out a contract with Belt and then release him.

Could be worse, see the Astros and Jose Abreu.

[nicksaviking]

9 minutes ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

I thinks @nicksaviking has every right as well. I mean this comment has stood the test of time.

"Good lord no! Their moves are like drunk uncle at the wedding dance. Stop with the moves, my eyes can’t take it! "

I looked at the article and I didn't have a comment, but there are many comments of mine shortly after that says this was not a good move.

Ah yes, once again trying to hide my tears with a terrible joke.