The Front Office's Investments in Veteran Depth Are Not Paying Off

[Nick Nelson]

Under pressure to spend wisely while facing a 20% payroll reduction, the Twins' front office opted to invest its limited funds in building or maintaining veteran depth across the roster. Almost to a man, the players that Minnesota counted on to establish their floor this year have proven woefully unsuited for the task. As such, the bottom is falling out for the Twins in April.

Image courtesy of Benny Sieu-USA TODAY Sports

It was striking to everyone – including him – that the Twins decided to tender a contract to Kyle Farmer this year, making him a $6.3 million 33-year-old backup on a team that was about to slash payroll by $30 million. The logic seemed to make sense – Farmer was coming off a pretty good year, including a really good second half, and provided stable depth at two positions with crucial players carrying health question marks. Plus, there was the valued clubhouse presence. 

It's tough to imagine this decision playing out worse thus far. The exact type of scenario that theoretically merited Farmer's expensive retention – both Carlos Correa and Royce Lewis going down with significant early injuries – has materialized, and in an elevated role, Farmer has been one of the worst players on the team. None of the qualities that the front office prioritized in retaining him have been on display. 

Farmer apparently is a less preferred option at shortstop than Willi Castro, which is a very bad sign because Castro is a bad shortstop. Farmer has instead mainly been playing third, where he's been unexceptional at best; last weekend in Detroit he committed one of the most costly defensive misplays of the season. 

 

Offensively, Farmer has been brutal, posting an incomprehensible .079 batting average through 16 games. Included within that is an 0-for-12 mark against left-handed pitchers, against whom Farmer is supposed to specialize – another aspect of the specific value Minnesota's front office saw in him. To whatever extent Farmer's presence in the clubhouse is beneficial, there's been little evidence as the Twins have fallen into a demoralized state with a blatant leadership void in Correa's absence. 

On its own, the $6 million they Twins are spending on Farmer may not be all that consequential. But when you combine it with all of the other "luxury" expenses on this roster that are failing to pan out, it becomes quite apparent how easily the front office could have allocated its payroll in more impactful ways.

Consider that:

• The Twins signed Carlos Santana for $5.25 million, despite already having a starting option at first base in Alex Kirilloff. The idea of adding another switch-hitting bat and reducing their reliance on the injury-prone Kirilloff made sense, but Santana looks totally out of gas at age 38. His negative-0.5 fWAR ranks as the fifth-worst in baseball.
• Manuel Margot was a late add via trade with the Dodgers, costing $4 million but bringing a needed righty-swinging outfield bat into the mix for Minnesota, as well as a viable backup in center for Byron Buxton. But much like with Farmer as an infielder, Margot loses much of his appeal as an outfielder if the Twins don't like him in center. That seems to be the case; he's not started a game there. Margot has also looked pretty underwhelming in the corners and he's slashing. .171/.277/.244 at the plate. 
• Minnesota brought back Anthony DeSclafani as a part of Seattle's return in the Jorge Polanco trade, seemingly giving them a veteran layer of depth at $4 million to keep Louie Varland in Triple-A as rotation depth. DeSclafani, who missed the second half of 2023 with an elbow injury, experienced a recurrence in spring training and underwent season-ending surgery before throwing a pitch for the Twins. This thrust Varland into the season-opening rotation, where he's struggled immensely.
• The decision to bring him back via arbitration was not as controversial as Farmer, but Castro could also be considered a bit of a luxury off the bench at a $3.5 million price tag. Castro's batting .158 with one of the highest strikeout rates in the league. He's been hugely overexposed defensively at short.
• Finally, although it wasn't a move made in this past offseason, the Twins are still on the hook for $10 million to backup catcher Christian Vázquez this year and next. Pressed into more regular duty than expected by injuries elsewhere in the lineup, Vázquez is batting .139 with a .380 OPS and one walk in 40 plate appearances.

Between those six players – Farmer, Santana, Margot, DeSclafani, Castro, Vázquez – the Twins are paying more than $33 million, or about a quarter of their $125 million payroll. Each of these veterans has been replacement-level or worse, collectively producing about negative-1.0 fWAR thus far. 

Being without your $36 million franchise centerpiece in Carlos Correa is one thing. But the front office placed a clear emphasis this past offseason on embedding veteran depth and leadership around him, spreading what little money they had toward this end rather than opting for a big splash or two. This strategy, while sensible, is failing them direly, and that's been the story of the season as much as the key injuries. 

The contingency planning has turned to catastrophe in practice.

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[Patzky]

It's hard for anyone to have predicted the extent of the struggles of Farmer and Castro, even if we didn't agree with the strategy. Actually as the author notes, the strategy of having backups on place is sound and was necessary.. the parts chosen have just turned out to be unexpectedly weak. 

I don't see any trades on the horizon.. 

[strumdatjag]

Michael A Taylor is batting .296 (but has zero HRs and zero RBIs).   Christian Vasquez continues to be a disappointment. .

[bean5302]

24 minutes ago, Patzky said:

It's hard for anyone to have predicted the extent of the struggles of Farmer and Castro, even if we didn't agree with the strategy. Actually as the author notes, the strategy of having backups on place is sound and was necessary.. the parts chosen have just turned out to be unexpectedly weak. 

I don't see any trades on the horizon.. 

It's pretty easy to predict their contributions, though. With a healthy Correa and Lewis on the roster, Farmer and Castro wouldn't have gotten much playing time to contribute in the first place. The Twins rid excess utility players just to bring more back in.

[bean5302]

Nick Gordon cost $900k this year. His line is .213/.255/.447 OPS .702, thanks in part to a rough .219 BABIP. His xwOBA suggests he's just about where he should be so probably not a lot of luck involved one way or the other. For $900k, a wRC+ of 89 is perfectly fine. Twins utility players are making $3.5-6.3MM this year. That's luxury spending. Utility guys are the LAST guys you spend money on.

I despised the Carlos Santana signing, like truly deeply despised it because I felt Kirilloff/Miranda was a better option. Actually, I felt like Miranda as a full time starter vs. both left/right was a better answer and it would have saved another $4.5MM the Twins needed to put towards a starter or a legit DH.

I have nothing against Santana at all, and it'd be great to see him start really hitting because the Twins certainly need the help. Hopefully something clicks with a few guys soon!
 

[Fire Dan Gladden]

30 minutes ago, Patzky said:

It's hard for anyone to have predicted the extent of the struggles of Farmer and Castro, even if we didn't agree with the strategy. Actually as the author notes, the strategy of having backups on place is sound and was necessary.. the parts chosen have just turned out to be unexpectedly weak. 

I don't see any trades on the horizon.. 

100% this.  You can add the complete meltdown of Santana to this unexpected mix as well. (IMO Santana was brought in with the intention to have Kiriloff play more outfield)

All of the Twins fandom that has been screaming to give <insert Twins prospect here> an opportunity on the big team, be careful what you wish for.  Watching them play for a sub .450 team is just about here.

[blindeke]

Yikes. Some terrible decision making. Enough old timers gripe at you for being too stat heavy for years, you tend to over-correct and double down on supposed veteran clubhouse leadership, with predictable consequences.  

[Azviking101]

Why did they trade for Margot if they don’t like him in CF? Wasn’t the reason to acquire him so that there was buxton insurance? It’s even worse since Michael Taylor signed for the same amount that the twins are paying Margot

[Patzky]

3 minutes ago, blindeke said:

Yikes. Some terrible decision making. Enough old timers gripe at you for being too stat heavy for years, you tend to over-correct and double down on supposed veteran clubhouse leadership, with predictable consequences.  

The excess players helped a lot last year. Think Solano, Taylor, Castro, Brock Stewart.

 

The 2024 models deserve a recall..

[Azviking101]

I also find it hard to believe that it’s a coincidence that almost every hitter on this team is off to their worst start to a season. 
The plan of attack is awful and almost every twins hitter has subscribed to this same plan. 
Popkins and his hitting staff has to go. Immediately 

[Gamblerssoftball]

This article really sums up the situation very well. It was sound strategy until they all went dry together. The rash of injuries was too much, I guess. There's no quick fix on the horizon that I can see.

[JD-TWINS]

24 minutes ago, strumdatjag said:

Michael A Taylor is batting .296 (but has zero HRs and zero RBIs).   Christian Vasquez continues to be a disappointment. .

Vazquez is playing good defense at a primarily  defensive spot - offense is disappointing but he’s not a real surprise after last year. 

[TwinsDr2021]

First I really, really hope this team turns it around and makes the playoffs. But if that doesn't happen, does last year make up for 21, 22, and 24?

[Riverbrian]

2 hours ago, Nick Nelson said:

Consider that:

• The Twins signed Carlos Santana for $5.25 million, despite already having a starting option at first base in Alex Kirilloff. The idea of adding another switch-hitting bat and reducing their reliance on the injury-prone Kirilloff made sense, but Santana looks totally out of gas at age 38. His negative-0.5 fWAR ranks as the fifth-worst in baseball.
• Manuel Margot was a late add via trade with the Dodgers, costing $4 million but bringing a needed righty-swinging outfield bat into the mix for Minnesota, as well as a viable backup in center for Byron Buxton. But much like with Farmer as an infielder, Margot loses much of his appeal as an outfielder if the Twins don't like him in center. That seems to be the case; he's not started a game there. Margot has also looked pretty underwhelming in the corners and he's slashing. .171/.277/.244 at the plate. 
• Minnesota brought back Anthony DeSclafani as a part of Seattle's return in the Jorge Polanco trade, seemingly giving them a veteran layer of depth at $4 million to keep Louie Varland in Triple-A as rotation depth. DeSclafani, who missed the second half of 2023 with an elbow injury, experienced a recurrence in spring training and underwent season-ending surgery before throwing a pitch for the Twins. This thrust Varland into the season-opening rotation, where he's struggled immensely.
• The decision to bring him back via arbitration was not as controversial as Farmer, but Castro could also be considered a bit of a luxury off the bench at a $3.5 million price tag. Castro's batting .158 with one of the highest strikeout rates in the league. He's been hugely overexposed defensively at short.
• Finally, although it wasn't a move made in this past offseason, the Twins are still on the hook for $10 million to backup catcher Christian Vázquez this year and next. Pressed into more regular duty than expected by injuries elsewhere in the lineup, Vázquez is batting .139 with a .380 OPS and one walk in 40 plate appearances.

Between those six players – Farmer, Santana, Margot, DeSclafani, Castro, Vázquez – the Twins are paying more than $33 million, or about a quarter of their $125 million payroll. Each of these veterans has been replacement-level or worse, collectively producing about negative-1.0 fWAR thus far. 

Being without your $36 million franchise centerpiece in Carlos Correa is one thing. But the front office placed a clear emphasis this past offseason on embedding veteran depth and leadership around him, spreading what little money they had toward this end rather than opting for a big splash or two. This strategy, while sensible, is failing them direly, and that's been the story of the season as much as the key injuries. 

The contingency planning has turned to catastrophe in practice.

Great article Nick... You have hit the nail on the head. 

Although... The strategy that you refer to as sensible is not.  

33 Million spent on vets sounds like something you can put on a brochure with smiling faces on the cover to sell your organization but the reality is that they spent 33 million on an innings eater (if healthy) and part time players who become full time players when the injuries hit.

33 million on part time players! While cutting 31 million off the payroll. This strategy is never sensible. 

Farmer and Margot are here to hit left handers. We didn't pay them to hit right handers because if we did that would be hard to justify.

Farmer has 1206 Career AB's vs RH with an OPS of .653 

Margot has 1939 Career AB's vs RH with an OPS of .659

They hit left handers!!! These are not the players you roster to hit right handers. You roster them to face left handers and you need to roster players to hit left handers if you are committed to making sure Kirilloff, Julien and Wallner don't have to face left handers which occurs 25% of the time.  

This is a sensible strategy only if players don't get hurt. Once players start getting hurt and become unavailable or even if players stay healthy but are not good like Wallner has been... they have to face right handers and they have shown over 3000 AB's that they shouldn't be doing that.

They were so focused on protecting our young left handed hitters against left handed pitchers 25% of the time that they compromised our ability to hit right handers who throw 75% of the time and we paid money we don't have to do it. 

Injury is not an excuse. Injuries were always going to happen. Injuries are going to happen to every single team. Once we get our injured 3 back... there will be others to replace them on the disabled list. 

We took a major league switch hitter in Polanco and shed him so we could spend that money on multiple lesser players.

Those lesser players are killing us and they will not be released so they will kill us all year.  

Santana hasn't been what he was a long time ago for quite some time, DeSclafini was just another innings eater. 

Santana, Margot, Farmer and Vazquez will not be waived. They will be around to kill us all year. If we are to turn this thing around. Those 4 will have to turn it around and I'm doubtful that they will. 

Bad strategy... Bad Bad Strategy.  

[Mike Sixel]

8 minutes ago, Riverbrian said:

Great article Nick... You have hit the nail on the head. 

Although... The strategy that you refer to as sensible is not.  

33 Million spent on vets sounds like something you can put on a brochure with smiling faces on the cover to sell your organization but the reality is that they spent 33 million on an innings eater (if healthy) and part time players who become full time players when the injuries hit.

33 million on part time players! While cutting 31 million off the payroll. This strategy is never sensible. 

Farmer and Margot are here to hit left handers. We didn't pay them to hit right handers because if we did that would be hard to justify.

Farmer has 1206 Career AB's vs RH with an OPS of .653 

Margot has 1939 Career AB's vs RH with an OPS of .659

They hit left handers!!! These are not the players you roster to hit right handers. You roster them to face left handers and you need to roster players players to hit left handers if you are committed to making sure Kirilloff, Julien and Wallner don't have to face left handers which occurs 25% of the time.  

This is a sensible strategy only if players don't get hurt. Once players start getting hurt and become unavailable or even if players stay healthy but are not good like Wallner has been... they have to face right handers and they have shown over 3000 AB's that they shouldn't be doing that.

They were so focused on protecting our young left handed hitters against left handed pitchers 25% of the time that they compromised our ability to hit right handers who throw 75% of the time and we paid money we don't have to do it. 

Injury is not an excuse. Injuries were always going to happen. Injuries are going to happen to every single team. Once we get our injured 3 back... there will be others to replace them on the disabled list. 

We took a major league switch hitter in Polanco and shed him so we could spend that money on multiple lesser players.

Those lesser players are killing us and they will not be released so they will kill us all year.  

Santana hasn't been what he was a long time ago for quite some time, DeSclafini was just another innings eater. 

Santana, Margot, Farmer and Vazquez will not be waived. They will be around to kill us all year. If we are to turn this thing around. Those 4 will have to turn it around and I'm doubtful that they will. 

Bad strategy... Bad Bad Strategy.  

Agreed. I didn't like this strategy then, and I hate it now. I hated it last year, but it worked. 

Why they refuse to trust the youth to be backups is beyond me. If they really don't trust their minor league system, they should resign. The system is their only hope for long term success. And, as predicted, they won't cut bait for months. At least Rocco has benched Santana.

But spending this percent of a limited payroll on guys you want to be backups is awful resource allocation. 

[Whitey333]

Great article as usual.  Yes missing Correa, Lewis, and Kepler hurts.  But the other vets on the team and some of the young players have not produced.  Not a good combination.  This FO continues to make baffling personnel decisions.

[bean5302]

49 minutes ago, Fire Dan Gladden said:

...(IMO Santana was brought in with the intention to have Kiriloff play more outfield)...

This despite the fact Falvey was vocal that Kirilloff wasn't viewed as a potential outfielder at all?

[DJL44]

38 minutes ago, Patzky said:

The excess players helped a lot last year. Think Solano, Taylor, Castro, Brock Stewart.

The 2024 models deserve a recall.

They seem to do well on this every other year and bomb out entirely the next season (Logan Morrison). Can't they roll sevens instead of snake eyes and box cars? You would expect one or two of these veterans to go bust but not ALL of them.

[Mike Sixel]

Just now, DJL44 said:

They seem to do well on this every other year and bomb out entirely the next season (Logan Morrison). Can't they roll sevens instead of snake eyes and box cars? You would expect one or two of these veterans to go bust but not ALL of them.

It does seem every other year works....

[Major League Ready]

5 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

Agreed. I didn't like this strategy then, and I hate it now. I hated it last year, but it worked. 

Why they refuse to trust the youth to be backups is beyond me. If they really don't trust their minor league system, they should resign. The system is their only hope for long term success. And, as predicted, they won't cut bait for months. At least Rocco has benched Santana.

But spending this percent of a limited payroll on guys you want to be backups is awful resource allocation. 

I was just fine with entrusting Martin / Larnach / Miranda and others to supply depth.  However, when you lose Lewis / Correa  / Kepler and Buxton / Wallner / Castro and Vazquez are all hitting very poorly, depth pieces are not going to make up for that that enormous loss in production.   It would be nice if those depth pieces were league average but we would still be getting beat on a regular basis.  Hopefully, we don't see much of Santana once Kepler is back and Margot only plays against LHP.  I am rooting extra hard for Miranda hoping he crushes it and they are forced to cut Santana.

[D.C Twins]

The FO has made some nice trades and draft picks during their run, but this offseason was a complete disaster. 

Pay for another SP or a bunch of washed bench players?

Wait until the first IL trip from Lopez, Ryan, or Ober and we will REALLY see the fallout of the terrible decisions made this offseason. 

[Mike Sixel]

3 minutes ago, Major League Ready said:

I was just fine with entrusting Martin / Larnach / Miranda and others to supply depth.  However, when you lose Lewis / Correa  / Kepler and Buxton / Wallner / Castro and Vazquez are all hitting very poorly, depth pieces are not going to make up for that that enormous loss in production.   It would be nice if those depth pieces were league average but we would still be getting beat on a regular basis.  Hopefully, we don't see much of Santana once Kepler is back and Margot only plays against LHP.  I am rooting extra hard for Miranda hoping he crushes it and they are forced to cut Santana.

No one said it would, but those guys not producing doesn't change the reality that spending money on backups and not starters is bad strategy, for a team cutting payroll. 

[USAFChief]

A couple points: Carlos Santana was not signed as "depth." He was signed to be the full-time first baseman. 

Desclafani was not acquired for "depth." He was acquired to be 20 percent of the rotation. 

Let's view this accurately. And it looks even worse that way.

 

[Fire Dan Gladden]

7 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

This despite the fact Falvey was vocal that Kirilloff wasn't viewed as a potential outfielder at all?

Yep.  Games played this year:
9 - OF
6 - DH
4 - 1B

Kiriloff is a decent OF.  1B is fairly easy to replace.  Unless they pull the plug on Santana (very possible), I would expect those game's played ratios to stay about the same

[Mike Sixel]

8 minutes ago, USAFChief said:

A couple points: Carlos Santana was not signed as "depth." He was signed to be the full-time first baseman. 

Desclafani was not acquired for "depth." He was acquired to be 20 percent of the rotation. 

Let's view this accurately. And it looks even worse that way.

 

Truth

[DJL44]

12 minutes ago, USAFChief said:

Desclafani was not acquired for "depth." He was acquired to be 20 percent of the rotation. 

If anyone in the Twins front office actually believed DeSclafani would take 20% of the starts this season they should be fired. I think they acquired him to be 10% of the rotation.

[USAFChief]

1 minute ago, DJL44 said:

If anyone in the Twins front office actually believed DeSclafani would take 20% of the starts this season they should be fired. I think they acquired him to be 10% of the rotation.

That makes zero sense. They were planning on 15 starts? Explain to me how that works. Keep in mind he can't be optioned.

[Major League Ready]

18 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

No one said it would, but those guys not producing doesn't change the reality that spending money on backups and not starters is bad strategy, for a team cutting payroll. 

Which starting position player would you have had them replace with a free agent.  You were very adamant about Wallner getting a chance based on what he did last year.  Not that they were going to replace Buxton be we could have replaced Buxton with Bellinger.  Would Bellinger's wRC+ of 97 had made a difference?  We were not replacing Jeffers, Julien, Correa Lewis or Kepler and Kirilloff has been a bright spot.  So, which starting position player should they have replaced?

[Mike Sixel]

1 minute ago, USAFChief said:

That makes zero sense. They were planning on 15 starts? Explain to me how that works. Keep in mind he can't be optioned.

I think they hoped he started ten or so games before someone in AAA was ready. Then they'd cut bait out he'd be hurt or moved to relief. I have no inside information, clearly...

[Mike Sixel]

4 minutes ago, Major League Ready said:

Which starting position player would you have had them replace with a free agent.  You were very adamant about Wallner getting a chance based on what he did last year.  Not that they were going to replace Buxton be we could have replaced Buxton with Bellinger.  Would Bellinger's wRC+ of 97 had made a difference?  We were not replacing Jeffers, Julien, Correa Lewis or Kepler and Kirilloff has been a bright spot.  So, which starting position player should they have replaced?

Hoskins was about it, iirc, of what was really available. But that was when I thought they'd spend on a pitcher.... If they weren't doing that? I don't know. As you say, they weren't planning to bench any starter from last year.... And yes, Wallner deserved the chance, as did Julien and Lewis. For me, it was much more about just trusting the youth to be the backups..... I'd rather roll the dice on young upside, than have low ceiling veterans. 

It's hard to see any position other than first or DH being acquired. But I certainly didn't want Santana. 

As for your post, I don't get your point. I'm saying that the guys they brought in stink. You're not arguing that, so I'm not sure your point.