The Front Office's Investments in Veteran Depth Are Not Paying Off

[Riverbrian]

28 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

This despite the fact Falvey was vocal that Kirilloff wasn't viewed as a potential outfielder at all?

When I hear definitive statements like that.

A chill goes down my spine. 

The front office should know better than all of us that plans are going to need adjustment. 

 

 

[TerwilligerBuntsOne]

Total System Failure.

[Doctor Gast]

I was very much against acquiring Santana, Desclavani & Margot. They took away playing time from players (Kiriloff, Miranda & Martin) that I deemed better than them & they proved to be expensive.

Farmer's flexibility is very valuable & he's not suppose to play against RHPs but he is. that's the problem. Farmer could have been a trade piece but wasn't, Catching is a premium position, Vazquez's defense is valuable (where we lack,) any offense is icing on the cake.

[weneedneshek]

22 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

I think they hoped he started ten or so games before someone in AAA was ready. Then they'd cut bait out he'd be hurt or moved to relief. I have no inside information, clearly...

Cut bait? This FO does not waive veterans they are paying millions of dollars (e.g. Joey Gallo, Santana/Margot to be added shortly). The only way he was getting bumped from the rotation was injury. If their 'plan' was for him to hopefully get hurt once a AAA starter proved himself or to become the highest paid member of our bullpen, then that is a horrible plan.

[Mike Sixel]

3 minutes ago, weneedneshek said:

Cut bait? This FO does not waive veterans they are paying millions of dollars (e.g. Joey Gallo, Santana/Margot to be added shortly). The only way he was getting bumped from the rotation was injury. If their 'plan' was for him to hopefully get hurt once a AAA starter proved himself or to become the highest paid member of our bullpen, then that is a horrible plan.

I never said it was a good plan. Also, see the next reply 

[DJL44]

23 minutes ago, USAFChief said:

That makes zero sense. They were planning on 15 starts? Explain to me how that works. Keep in mind he can't be optioned.

He's been dealing with injuries for two seasons and averaged 12.5 starts and 60 innings pitched over those two seasons. Why would they expect him to go from providing 12 starts a season to 35 starts? They had to expect him to spend time on the injured list this season. They were just hoping it wasn't the entire season.

Likewise, if they're expecting 35 starts from Paddack this season they're fools.

[LA Vikes Fan]

Some of us were vocal this spring that this was the year to play the young guys, not retreads. This division is down now but Cleveland, Detroit and KC are on the way up so it will be tougher in 2025. What does that mean in practice? Miranda is up and playing every day either at 3B, !B, or DH. .Kirilloff is the primary 1B AND hits some against left-handed pitching. Julian is the primary 2B and hits against left-handed pitching (they are doing this one). Jeffers is the catcher 60% of the time and DH is 20% of the time. Austin Martin is the fourth outfielder, now the third outfielder since Wallner crapped out. SWR gets a shot in the rotation. When he's back physically, Brooks Lee comes up and plays regularly.

Yes, I know this means riding with the ups and downs, giving away defense for offenseat some positions, and living with the fact that some of these guys just aren't good enough or are quite ready like Wallner and Varland, at least as a starter. I could live with that, spending the first two months of the season with the guys that are going to be here longer term to see how they react. Then you can try to trade for a few veterans to supplement areas where you really need help. Instead, we assumed the team was good enough to contend for a World Series so we needed veteran backups. That's the huge mistake.

[weneedneshek]

3 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

He's been dealing with injuries for two seasons and averaged 12.5 starts and 60 innings pitched over those two seasons. Why would they expect him to go from providing 12 starts a season to 35 starts? They had to expect him to spend time on the injured list this season. They were just hoping it wasn't the entire season.

Likewise, if they're expecting 35 starts from Paddack this season they're fools.

So Plan A from the FO this offseason (assuming they aren't fools and expecting a high number of Paddack and Disco starts) was to have a combo of Paddack/Disco provide 30-35 starts and Varland/SWR cover the 30+ they miss? On a hopeful contender? Meanwhile wasting starter dollars on the other vets mentioned in this article? Fire them yesterday

[Riverbrian]

47 minutes ago, USAFChief said:

That makes zero sense. They were planning on 15 starts? Explain to me how that works. Keep in mind he can't be optioned.

 

16 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

He's been dealing with injuries for two seasons and averaged 12.5 starts and 60 innings pitched over those two seasons. Why would they expect him to go from providing 12 starts a season to 35 starts? They had to expect him to spend time on the injured list this season. They were just hoping it wasn't the entire season.

Likewise, if they're expecting 35 starts from Paddack this season they're fools.

I think both of you are right at the same time. 

DJL44... I think you are right. I think DeSclafini was planned on to bring length to the stable of starters and I think his recent history suggests that he wouldn't last the entire year but he can eat innings as long as he can. 

Chief: I think you are right. If he would remain healthy this year. I think they had no plans to remove him from the rotation. Because Varland, SWR, Festa would be plugging holes for other members of the rotation who were not as fortunate. 

 

[Patzky]

1 hour ago, Azviking101 said:

I also find it hard to believe that it’s a coincidence that almost every hitter on this team is off to their worst start to a season. 
The plan of attack is awful and almost every twins hitter has subscribed to this same plan. 
Popkins and his hitting staff has to go. Immediately 

How long would it take to Unring the Popkins bell? Especially when we learn it's the Falvey bell?

[gman]

Unfortunatley cutting any veteran does not bring back dollars to add to payroll. We are just left without a player on the roster and no money in the bank.

[USAFChief]

17 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

He's been dealing with injuries for two seasons and averaged 12.5 starts and 60 innings pitched over those two seasons. Why would they expect him to go from providing 12 starts a season to 35 starts? They had to expect him to spend time on the injured list this season. They were just hoping it wasn't the entire season.

Likewise, if they're expecting 35 starts from Paddack this season they're fools.

Again....nonsense. 

Nobody plans on an injury at a specific point to a specific player.

They weren't expecting Descalfani to be healthy until a certain date, then not. They planned on him being healthy.

He wasn't a part time starter the past two seasons. He was a full time starter, taking his turn every 5 days. The Twins planned on the same. A start every 5th day. 

BTW, nitpic, but it's more like 32 starts these days, not 35.

People need to stop with this fantasy they concocted about the Polanco trade. That trade was first and foremost about acquiring a starter for the rotation. Not depth. Not an A ball outfielder. And not a guy they planned on replacing after 15 starts. 

 

[DJL44]

16 minutes ago, weneedneshek said:

So Plan A from the FO this offseason (assuming they aren't fools and expecting a high number of Paddack and Disco starts) was to have a combo of Paddack/Disco provide 30-35 starts and Varland/SWR cover the 30+ they miss? On a hopeful contender? Meanwhile wasting starter dollars on the other vets mentioned in this article?

That, and adjust at the deadline if needed. It's not a plan with a high likelihood of success.

I also don't think the dollars they spent on the veterans at other positions were enough to actually bring in a good starting pitcher. Those guys cost closer to $100M in long-term commitment and they don't have the stomach for it. Given the fact that they didn't even give the young, cheap players team friendly contract extensions I don't see this team spending any future money until their TV broadcasting revenue is solved for the long term.

12 minutes ago, USAFChief said:

Nobody plans on an injury at a specific point to a specific player.

They weren't expecting Descalfani to be healthy until a certain date, then not. They planned on him being healthy.

Then they're morons who don't understand anything about hedging a bet and shouldn't be entrusted to run a baseball organization. Fire them before they make trades at the deadline and hire someone who knows how to manage risk. It would be gross incompetence to expect DeSclafani to put together a completely healthy season at this point in his career.

[DJL44]

24 minutes ago, gman said:

Unfortunately cutting any veteran does not bring back dollars to add to payroll. We are just left without a player on the roster and no money in the bank.

Only if you can get someone else to pick up the contract on waivers.

[bean5302]

1 hour ago, Fire Dan Gladden said:

Yep.  Games played this year:
9 - OF
6 - DH
4 - 1B

Kiriloff is a decent OF.  1B is fairly easy to replace.  Unless they pull the plug on Santana (very possible), I would expect those game's played ratios to stay about the same

Where Kirilloff was actually deployed is not relevant to your statement or my challenge of its accuracy.

What Falvey and Baldelli were on record saying (prior to the season and the acquisition of Santana) is that Kirilloff was no longer viewed as a viable outfielder. He was viewed exclusively as a 1B/DH. I like Kirilloff getting outfield opportunities because I think that's where he'll provide the most value.

That said, you thinking the Santana move was to get Kirilloff into the outfield more means you thought both Falvey and Baldelli were lying on record about their planned utilization and view of Kirilloff as a potential outfield option. Quite frankly, if Falvey and Baldelli were lying, that makes Santana's signing even worse, because it means the Twins could have easily and happily parted ways with Kepler by moving Kirilloff to left field.

[bean5302]

32 minutes ago, USAFChief said:

Again....nonsense. 

Nobody plans on an injury at a specific point to a specific player.

They weren't expecting Descalfani to be healthy until a certain date, then not. They planned on him being healthy.

He wasn't a part time starter the past two seasons. He was a full time starter, taking his turn every 5 days. The Twins planned on the same. A start every 5th day. 

BTW, nitpic, but it's more like 32 starts these days, not 35.

People need to stop with this fantasy they concocted about the Polanco trade. That trade was first and foremost about acquiring a starter for the rotation. Not depth. Not an A ball outfielder. And not a guy they planned on replacing after 15 starts. 

 

Personally, I think the Polanco trade was for:
1) cutting payroll
2) acquiring something in return

I think what the Twins actually got stemmed from:
1) Falvey sitting on his hands far, far too long before making moves rather than being aggressive resulting in the number of potential partners evaporating.
2) Falvey being unable to sell Polanco's value or simply overestimating his value (as he did badly with Buxton in '21)
3) Falvey finally having to settle on a package which was valuable... but not the value the Twins actually needed.

[weneedneshek]

7 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

I also don't think the dollars they spent on the veterans at other positions were enough to actually bring in a good starting pitcher. Those guys cost closer to $100M in long-term commitment and they don't have the stomach for it.

I've stated this on a couple other threads (and advocated signing him months ago so not just hindsight). Seth Lugo

[DJL44]

1 minute ago, weneedneshek said:

I've stated this on a couple other threads (and advocated signing him months ago so not just hindsight). Seth Lugo

We will see how good 36-year-old Seth Lugo is at the end of his contract but he has been a good signing for Kansas City so far.

For me, the answer was to bring back Sonny Gray. It is telling how he specifically mentioned the Cardinals organization as a draw to sign there as a free agent.

Quote

when you talk around the league and talk to different guys who have been all over the place, everybody raves about St. Louis and the Cardinals.

 

[Fire Dan Gladden]

11 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

Where Kirilloff was actually deployed is not relevant to your statement or my challenge of its accuracy.

What Falvey and Baldelli were on record saying (prior to the season and the acquisition of Santana) is that Kirilloff was no longer viewed as a viable outfielder. He was viewed exclusively as a 1B/DH. I like Kirilloff getting outfield opportunities because I think that's where he'll provide the most value.

That said, you thinking the Santana move was to get Kirilloff into the outfield more means you thought both Falvey and Baldelli were lying on record about their planned utilization and view of Kirilloff as a potential outfield option. Quite frankly, if Falvey and Baldelli were lying, that makes Santana's signing even worse, because it means the Twins could have easily and happily parted ways with Kepler by moving Kirilloff to left field.

I think they were hedging their bets, especially in the public eye.  If Santana performs well, they can move Kiriloff to the outfield with little fanfare and move on from Kepler at any point..  If Santana is bad, they can play him at first "as was always their intention".

What the FO says to the public always needs to be taken with a grain of salt.  Dishonesty and misdirection are part of the game.  Who knows what the actual intention was behind the scenes.

[DJL44]

It appears that 2024 has seen another drop in offense around the league. Batting average is down. The rates of 2B and HR are also down. K rates are steady. Pitching velocity usually affects the oldest players the most. Judging just by age I think Willi Castro is the best bet to bounce back from his early hitting woes.

[TwinsDr2021]

12 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

Personally, I think the Polanco trade was for:
1) cutting payroll
2) acquiring something in return

I think what the Twins actually got stemmed from:
1) Falvey sitting on his hands far, far too long before making moves rather than being aggressive resulting in the number of potential partners evaporating.
2) Falvey being unable to sell Polanco's value or simply overestimating his value (as he did badly with Buxton in '21)
3) Falvey finally having to settle on a package which was valuable... but not the value the Twins actually needed.

I adamantly disagree the Polanco trade was the reduce payroll, because they didn't, it actually increased a bit if you include the two prospect minor salaries. The swapped out 10.5 million for 10.5 (a SP, RP, two prospects, and Santana)

Now if they wouldn't have Santana I would have agreed they reduced salary and replace his 26 man spot with a rookie or close to that salary.

This FO as usual thought they were the smartest ones in the room and thought they could pick up his option (which they didn't need to) and swap his salary for multiple players and ended up with a RP, SP replace his spot with Santana and pick up prospects to boot. And now it turns out they basically picked up his option for two minor league players at 10.5 million dollar cost, but that could go down if Topa is worth is 1.25.

[weneedneshek]

12 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

We will see how good 36-year-old Seth Lugo is at the end of his contract but he has been a good signing for Kansas City so far.

For me, the answer was to bring back Sonny Gray. It is telling how he specifically mentioned the Cardinals organization as a draw to sign there as a free agent.

 

Even if he's only good at 34 and 35 the contract will still be fantastic. He also has less than 700 career innings on his arm

Of course Sonny would have been a better answer but you were making a money argument, and even giving the FO that excuse Lugo would've fit.

[Major League Ready]

3 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

Hoskins was about it, iirc, of what was really available. But that was when I thought they'd spend on a pitcher.... If they weren't doing that? I don't know. As you say, they weren't planning to bench any starter from last year.... And yes, Wallner deserved the chance, as did Julien and Lewis. For me, it was much more about just trusting the youth to be the backups..... I'd rather roll the dice on young upside, than have low ceiling veterans. 

It's hard to see any position other than first or DH being acquired. But I certainly didn't want Santana. 

As for your post, I don't get your point. I'm saying that the guys they brought in stink. You're not arguing that, so I'm not sure your point. 

I was on the Hoskins train too but he has not been a difference maker either, at least not yet.  My point is that you said in an earlier post "the reality that spending money on backups and not starters is bad strategy."  This makes no sense if there were no starting positions to fill.  Santana and Margot are a very minute portion of the problem.  The injuries to Correa and Lewis are the biggest problems.  Kepler being out and Buxton / Wallner / Varland stinking are the next tier in terms of impact.  Santana and Margot are a 3rd tier in terms of impact along with Castro / Farmer and Vazquez stinking.

[Mike Sixel]

Just now, Major League Ready said:

I was on the Hoskins train too but he has not been a difference maker either, at least not yet.  My point is that you said in an earlier "the reality that spending money on backups and not starters is bad strategy."  This makes no sense if there were no starting positions to fill.  Santana and Margot are a very minute portion of the problem.  The injuries to Correa and Lewis are the biggest problems.  Kepler being out and Buxton / Wallner stinking are the next tier in terms of impact.  Santana and Margot are a 3rd tier in terms of impact along with Castro / Farmer and Vazquez stinking.

Don't spend money on backups. Start the youth. That's been my request for two years. Is rather they pocket money than sign zero upside veterans.

[Mike Sixel]

10 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

It appears that 2024 has seen another drop in offense around the league. Batting average is down. The rates of 2B and HR are also down. K rates are steady. Pitching velocity usually affects the oldest players the most. Judging just by age I think Willi Castro is the best bet to bounce back from his early hitting woes.

There is some belief it is a dead ball this year

[FlyingFinn]

You don't keep Farmer if he isn't your backup SS. I believe if Brooks Lee was healthy, Farmer would be #4 on the Twins depth chart at SS. 

You don't trade for Margot if he's not your backup CF. Margot is now #4 on the depth chart in CF, behind Buxton, Castro and Martin. 

And oh, if Brooks Lee was healthy, he would have had a chance to play starting in game #2 at 3B and SS after that.

[Parfigliano]

3 hours ago, Fire Dan Gladden said:

100% this.  You can add the complete meltdown of Santana to this unexpected mix as well. (IMO Santana was brought in with the intention to have Kiriloff play more outfield)

All of the Twins fandom that has been screaming to give <insert Twins prospect here> an opportunity on the big team, be careful what you wish for.  Watching them play for a sub .450 team is just about here.

Bring on the youth movement

[The Mad King]

Great writing Nick

[chpettit19]

1 hour ago, DJL44 said:

We will see how good 36-year-old Seth Lugo is at the end of his contract but he has been a good signing for Kansas City so far.

For me, the answer was to bring back Sonny Gray. It is telling how he specifically mentioned the Cardinals organization as a draw to sign there as a free agent.

 

Shota Imanaga was the choice. That deal is so insanely affordable. Polanco and Imanaga instead of DeSclafani, Farmer, Santana, and Margot makes this a better team, in my opinion. No idea if Imanaga was on their radar or if he had any desire to come here, but Chicago isn't a significantly better market from what I can see.

[DJL44]

21 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

Shota Imanaga was the choice. That deal is so insanely affordable. Polanco and Imanaga instead of DeSclafani, Farmer, Santana, and Margot makes this a better team, in my opinion. No idea if Imanaga was on their radar or if he had any desire to come here, but Chicago isn't a significantly better market from what I can see.

Maybe they can bring Polanco back next season after Seattle declines his option.