The Front Office's Investments in Veteran Depth Are Not Paying Off

[FlyingFinn]

6 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

Maybe they can bring Polanco back next season after Seattle declines his option.

No, though he would fit in right now. .173 batting average, .612 OPS. Seattle fans aren't exactly thrilled with the trade either.

[RpR]

Farmer's fielding history has him as a quite good 2nd baseman, good 3rd baseman and at best average Short Stop.

He was here last year so Julien could be pulled when defense became a top priority, not play Short Stop.st

He is hitting the ball, verses Julien whiffing, but he is hitting the ball where they are, not where they are not, while Julien is not the Twin doing the best imitation of Joey Gallo, although Gallo only has 3 HR to Juliens 4.

Margot, has one of the few Twins home runs; Santana -- EEwww -- Miranada is still a just plain lousy fielder.

Kirilloff and Larnach are showing they will be staying in the Majors but is sad the whole team, without exception seem to be sinking into the sunset.

 

[bean5302]

1 hour ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

I adamantly disagree the Polanco trade was the reduce payroll, because they didn't, it actually increased a bit if you include the two prospect minor salaries. The swapped out 10.5 million for 10.5 (a SP, RP, two prospects, and Santana)

Now if they wouldn't have Santana I would have agreed they reduced salary and replace his 26 man spot with a rookie or close to that salary.

This FO as usual thought they were the smartest ones in the room and thought they could pick up his option (which they didn't need to) and swap his salary for multiple players and ended up with a RP, SP replace his spot with Santana and pick up prospects to boot. And now it turns out they basically picked up his option for two minor league players at 10.5 million dollar cost, but that could go down if Topa is worth is 1.25.

You're creating a strawman and bringing him to a semantics fight.

The Twins wanted to shed the 6x redundant Polanco's contract to add to the roster and meet the lower payroll budget they had. The Twins undoubtedly wanted to shed more of Polanco's contract, but Falvey waited too long and had to eat a $4MM Desclafani sandwich served by the Mariners.

The net savings for trading Polanco was the $5MM Falvey then used to sign a different, and completely unrelated player they would not have otherwise been able to sign. That's the point. In order to sign people and meet the $25-30MM target reduction in their payroll, Polanco's contract had to be moved to save money.

[TwinsDr2021]

5 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

That's the point. In order to sign people and meet the $25-30MM target reduction in their payroll, Polanco's contract had to be moved to save money.

But it didn't, they could have just not picked it up and still signed Santana and another cheap relief pitcher and save money or they could have picked it up kept him and not signed Santana because there would have been no need, with AK, Julien, Polanco, Miranda or just about anybody else to play 1B and DH and went with the vaunted pitching pipeline to fill the pen. But they didn't do either. Which goes back to my point they thought (And quite a bit of people on here, including me) Polanco and his contract would return a better haul, so they were outsmarted. But to give them some credit at least they got two prospects back.

I am also pretty sure they could have offered Seattle a bag a balls and one of their journey man minor league players for DeSclafani and his salary and they would have been happy to accept.

Don't be foolish to think if Polanco was still here they would have signed Santana.

They took a chance by picking up Polanco they would be able to swing a deal that would benefit the team, now and going forward, at this point looks like they lost on the Now, but there is still hope on the going forward part (will they be around to see that, might be the question.

[KirbyDome89]

49 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

The Twins undoubtedly wanted to shed more of Polanco's contract, but Falvey waited too long and had to eat a $4MM Desclafani sandwich served by the Mariners.

The notion that DeSclafani was foisted onto the Twins is nonsense. It's no secret Falvey asked about other Seattle starters and obviously wasn't willing to meet whatever asking price the Mariners set. The Twins needed a SP, they settled for DeSclafani. If moving Polanco was only about shedding $$ they undoubtedly could've found a swap that brought back greater financial relief.  

[DJL44]

39 minutes ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

They took a chance by picking up Polanco they would be able to swing a deal that would benefit the team, now and going forward, at this point looks like they lost on the Now, but there is still hope on the going forward part (will they be around to see that, might be the question.

With hindsight, they should have put more emphasis on the going forward part of the trade.

[chinmusic]

5 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

It does seem every other year works....

Sure worked for the S.F. Giants for awhile!

[jkcarew]

The Front Office's Investments in Veteran Depth Are Not Paying Off

 

 

Their investments in veteran (incumbent) starters hasn’t been much better.

[LA Vikes Fan]

4 hours ago, bean5302 said:

Personally, I think the Polanco trade was for:
1) cutting payroll
2) acquiring something in return

I think what the Twins actually got stemmed from:
1) Falvey sitting on his hands far, far too long before making moves rather than being aggressive resulting in the number of potential partners evaporating.
2) Falvey being unable to sell Polanco's value or simply overestimating his value (as he did badly with Buxton in '21)
3) Falvey finally having to settle on a package which was valuable... but not the value the Twins actually needed.

This. Polanco didn't have a lot of value to others as an older, poor defensive player with injury issues so there wasn't much value to get trading by him. The mistake was thinking we had a lot of depth at 2B and in the order so getting a high end prospect, a decent reliever and an innings eater made sense for the team.  It's not that they traded Polanco for less than he was worth (they probably got more than he was worth), it's that what they got isn't what we needed, and it got worse when DeSclafani crapped out. 

[Blyleven2011]

Week in review   ...

I don't need the reminder especially when we are losing , but we need to vent ...

Baseball is a team effort  , and everyone is accountable  starting with the owners , FO  , coaches and manager , and the players  ...

The off season moves did not set us up to succeed this year  , after last season of breaking our losing streak in the playoffs winning 2 in a row over toronto and 1 against Houston  our wiz kids after the world series was over decided to let our free agent pitchers walk and tried to patch a rotation that hasn't any resemblance to last year rotation  ...

What kept us in the games last season while our hitting suffered for the first half  ???? 

And who won some playoff games for the first time since 2004  ????

The answer is above average starting pitching  ...

Team effort , F ...

[Robert Gauthier]

Veterans are a managers binky.  Cheap vets are just that, cheap.  And not effective.  There a few glimmers of hope, the leader at AB is Buxton!  He has become a streaky hitter, but still is great defensively.  Correa will be back soon.  I think spending 5-7 M on marginal vets vs. taking that money and getting a journeyman starter will look poor later in the year.  The news that Lee has a herniated disc is bad news, this will likely be a lost year as he won’t likely effectively rehab in time this year, and if he gets surgery, the year is done.

[jorgenswest]

The earliest release of a veteran free agent I can find is Jason Marquis in 2012. The front office is different but the owner paying the bills is the same.

He was DFA’d after game 41 and 7 starts. At that time he had an ERA of 8.47 with 14 walks and 12 strikeouts in 34 innings. His fWAR was -0.7. His 3 million dollar salary would probably equate to something in the 4-5 range now.

The earliest release by the current management might be Blake Parker. He was DFA’d after game 100. He had trouble with walks and home runs in his high leverage role with an fWAR f -0.2. His salary was 1.8 million.

I think it is critical that the Twins do draw a line for vets with expiring contract. Truly awful performance shouldn’t get beyond the Marquis Line or the quarter pole of the season. Hovering around replacement level performance shouldn’t get beyond the all star break.

Did it work out?

Hometown product Cole De Vries was brought up to replace Marquis. He was 5-5 with a 4.11 ERA in 16 starts. Marquis was picked up by San Diego and was 6-7 with a 4.04 ERA in 16 starts.

Taylor Rogers had already taken over the closer role from Parker so it is harder to find a parallel. Zach Littell may be the closest by date and use in the bullpen but Devin Smeltzer was recalled with the move. They also added Randy Dobnak about 10 days later. The three had ERAs of 2.68, 3.86 and 1.59 respectively. Parker struggled even more with the home run ball in Philadelphia.

[Riverbrian]

10 hours ago, jorgenswest said:

The earliest release of a veteran free agent I can find is Jason Marquis in 2012. The front office is different but the owner paying the bills is the same.

He was DFA’d after game 41 and 7 starts. At that time he had an ERA of 8.47 with 14 walks and 12 strikeouts in 34 innings. His fWAR was -0.7. His 3 million dollar salary would probably equate to something in the 4-5 range now.

The earliest release by the current management might be Blake Parker. He was DFA’d after game 100. He had trouble with walks and home runs in his high leverage role with an fWAR f -0.2. His salary was 1.8 million.

I think it is critical that the Twins do draw a line for vets with expiring contract. Truly awful performance shouldn’t get beyond the Marquis Line or the quarter pole of the season. Hovering around replacement level performance shouldn’t get beyond the all star break.

Did it work out?

Hometown product Cole De Vries was brought up to replace Marquis. He was 5-5 with a 4.11 ERA in 16 starts. Marquis was picked up by San Diego and was 6-7 with a 4.04 ERA in 16 starts.

Taylor Rogers had already taken over the closer role from Parker so it is harder to find a parallel. Zach Littell may be the closest by date and use in the bullpen but Devin Smeltzer was recalled with the move. They also added Randy Dobnak about 10 days later. The three had ERAs of 2.68, 3.86 and 1.59 respectively. Parker struggled even more with the home run ball in Philadelphia.

Good info. 

Did you run across the earliest DFA of a position player in your research?

[Richie the Rally Goat]

20 hours ago, Azviking101 said:

Why did they trade for Margot if they don’t like him in CF? Wasn’t the reason to acquire him so that there was buxton insurance? It’s even worse since Michael Taylor signed for the same amount that the twins are paying Margot

Just because Taylor signed for $4m, doesn’t mean he would have signed that with the Twins. Humans can be illogical at times, especially when it comes to money

[rv78]

I wonder why they think they have to bring in players that can hit lefties or players that can hit righties...? Why not go after players that can hit both?

I wonder why they think they can add veterans like Gallo and Santana who are clearly at the end of their careers and expect one more good season from them...? There really was only 1 Nellie Cruz. Quit trying to duplicate him with other players.

I understand the need for depth. I know they got burned by NOT having it when they had to play guys like Jake Cave and Giberto Celestino, but if you don't see the difference of talent you have in depth at AAA now verses what you did in 2021 then you aren't very good at evaluating talent. All you have to do is look back to the last half of 2023 to see who really carried this team to the playoffs and it wasn't your veteran depth but the young players. Not trusting the players you drafted to become the depth pieces you need shows no confidence in them and gives yourself no credibility that you are drafting good players.

Then finally, and probably the most disturbing issue of all, is the redundant acquisition of injured pitchers. Have the guts to say no if a pitcher isn't healthy. 

[Riverbrian]

22 hours ago, Azviking101 said:

Why did they trade for Margot if they don’t like him in CF? Wasn’t the reason to acquire him so that there was buxton insurance? It’s even worse since Michael Taylor signed for the same amount that the twins are paying Margot

Free agency isn't like going to a supermarket and grabbing a can of Chef-Boy-Ar-Dee off the shelf and putting it into your basket.  

The can of Chef-Boy-Ar-Dee gets to decide if it wants to go into your basket. 

[jorgenswest]

2 hours ago, Riverbrian said:

Good info. 

Did you run across the earliest DFA of a position player in your research?

Nothing stood out but I did this when they traded for DeSclafani so I may have been more pitcher focused.

This administration kept Logan Morrison so there may be no line for a position player.

[nicksaviking]

22 hours ago, Azviking101 said:

Why did they trade for Margot if they don’t like him in CF? Wasn’t the reason to acquire him so that there was buxton insurance? It’s even worse since Michael Taylor signed for the same amount that the twins are paying Margot

Margot was an exponentially better fit than Taylor. Of all of the bungled offseason moves, this one at least showed that they knew the strikeout problem was a problem. Taylor struck out at 33% of his PAs last year and 38% so far this year. He's not a good player.

They still got it wrong though, because the answer to 'Who should we get, Taylor or Margot' was always, and obviously, C) None of the Above.

[Riverbrian]

31 minutes ago, jorgenswest said:

Nothing stood out but I did this when they traded for DeSclafani so I may have been more pitcher focused.

This administration kept Logan Morrison so there may be no line for a position player.

That would be my guess because a position player struggling can be utilized less. A pitcher really can't be hidden.  

Not only Logan Morrison but the playing of a Logan Forsythe is another dynamic. 

[USAFChief]

19 minutes ago, nicksaviking said:

Margot was an exponentially better fit than Taylor. Of all of the bungled offseason moves, this one at least showed that they knew the strikeout problem was a problem. Taylor struck out at 33% of his PAs last year and 38% so far this year. He's not a good player.

They still got it wrong though, because the answer to 'Who should we get, Taylor or Margot' was always, and obviously, C) None of the Above.

Except it appears Margot isn't a candidate to play CF. 

 

[nicksaviking]

5 minutes ago, USAFChief said:

Except it appears Margot isn't a candidate to play CF. 

 

Good. Seems like another reason to keep him out of the lineup.

[Jeff K]

23 hours ago, bean5302 said:

Nick Gordon cost $900k this year. His line is .213/.255/.447 OPS .702, thanks in part to a rough .219 BABIP. His xwOBA suggests he's just about where he should be so probably not a lot of luck involved one way or the other. For $900k, a wRC+ of 89 is perfectly fine. Twins utility players are making $3.5-6.3MM this year. That's luxury spending. Utility guys are the LAST guys you spend money on.

I despised the Carlos Santana signing, like truly deeply despised it because I felt Kirilloff/Miranda was a better option. Actually, I felt like Miranda as a full time starter vs. both left/right was a better answer and it would have saved another $4.5MM the Twins needed to put towards a starter or a legit DH.

I have nothing against Santana at all, and it'd be great to see him start really hitting because the Twins certainly need the help. Hopefully something clicks with a few guys soon!
 

I disliked (still do) the Santana signing as well.  Especially with Solano having  been such a solid contributor lasts season.  I would have much preferred Solano returning than signing Santana.  

[Fire Dan Gladden]

3 hours ago, Richie the Rally Goat said:

Just because Taylor signed for $4m, doesn’t mean he would have signed that with the Twins. Humans can be illogical at times, especially when it comes to money

The other factor in the Taylor discussion was that his asking price was higher than $4m before the Twins acquired Margot.  Once the Twins got Margot and were out of the bidding, Taylor had to "settle" for the $4m contract.  MAT was playing chicken with the market and lost.

[Azviking101]

1 hour ago, Riverbrian said:

Free agency isn't like going to a supermarket and grabbing a can of Chef-Boy-Ar-Dee off the shelf and putting it into your basket.  

The can of Chef-Boy-Ar-Dee gets to decide if it wants to go into your basket. 

They still traded for a guy we thought to play CF even though he’s a weak hitting outfielder and randomly decided not to put him in CF. 
 

[Major League Ready]

22 hours ago, DJL44 said:

That, and adjust at the deadline if needed. It's not a plan with a high likelihood of success.

I also don't think the dollars they spent on the veterans at other positions were enough to actually bring in a good starting pitcher. Those guys cost closer to $100M in long-term commitment and they don't have the stomach for it. Given the fact that they didn't even give the young, cheap players team friendly contract extensions I don't see this team spending any future money until their TV broadcasting revenue is solved for the long term.

Then they're morons who don't understand anything about hedging a bet and shouldn't be entrusted to run a baseball organization. Fire them before they make trades at the deadline and hire someone who knows how to manage risk. It would be gross incompetence to expect DeSclafani to put together a completely healthy season at this point in his career.

The call here from the majority was for a "playoff caliber" / "front of the rotation" type SP.  This organization has never signed the 5+ year type SPs as free agents and it is very rare for any team in the bottom half of revenue.  The failure rate and opportunity cost is simply too high.  If this is a mistake, it's a mistake every mid/small market is making so it does not make sense to single out the Twins.   

What if we had signed Yamamoto.  That's looking suspect right now.  How about Snell.  He has sucked!  Montgomery ended up being a great deal but that required a crystal ball.  What if we had traded away Lee for Burnes.  The rest of the team is a mess so that would have been throwing away a player who will contribute for 6+ years.  We can point to the affordable guys that are doing well at the moment but that was not the type of player that was called for here.

IDK exactly what they were thinking with DeSclafani but I did hear on MLB radio a couple times that he was looking strong before the injury.  My guess is that they took a $4M gamble because it's not a lot of money by today's standards and they were getting other value.  I think your positioning is very plausible.  If they could get decent production from him through May or June there is a decent chance one or two of the prospects will be ready.  Best case .... It is possible he stays healthy.  There are guys with similar profiles that put together a decent year quite often.

[bean5302]

18 hours ago, KirbyDome89 said:

The notion that DeSclafani was foisted onto the Twins is nonsense. It's no secret Falvey asked about other Seattle starters and obviously wasn't willing to meet whatever asking price the Mariners set. The Twins needed a SP, they settled for DeSclafani. If moving Polanco was only about shedding $$ they undoubtedly could've found a swap that brought back greater financial relief.  

The Mariners did not want Desclafani, but the Giants needed to purge payroll in order to absorb Robbie Ray.
The Mariners had no plans to use Desclafani in the rotation
The Mariners didn't want to add to their payroll after making so many offseason transactions.

About 29 MLB teams were interested in the Mariners cost controlled rotation arms. There's no doubt the Twins were one of them. I'm sure Seattle pitched Desclafani to all 29 of them, but obviously nobody was interested because he had poor results and has been injured. As a free agent, he was a MiLB contract kinda guy. I just cannot imagine Falvey being so incompetent he actually asked for Desclafani when the Twins did not need another back end rotation arm and there were so many other options going for cheap on the market. But faced with the option of having nobody else interested in Polanco's contract, Falvey accepted Desclafani and cash with the hopes it would work out in the rotation. This to me is the most likely scenario. 
 

[USAFChief]

49 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

The Mariners did not want Desclafani, but the Giants needed to purge payroll in order to absorb Robbie Ray.
The Mariners had no plans to use Desclafani in the rotation
The Mariners didn't want to add to their payroll after making so many offseason transactions.

About 29 MLB teams were interested in the Mariners cost controlled rotation arms. There's no doubt the Twins were one of them. I'm sure Seattle pitched Desclafani to all 29 of them, but obviously nobody was interested because he had poor results and has been injured. As a free agent, he was a MiLB contract kinda guy. I just cannot imagine Falvey being so incompetent he actually asked for Desclafani when the Twins did not need another back end rotation arm and there were so many other options going for cheap on the market. But faced with the option of having nobody else interested in Polanco's contract, Falvey accepted Desclafani and cash with the hopes it would work out in the rotation. This to me is the most likely scenario. 
 

And then called it good. Added zero other starters.

 

Falvine set out to add starting pitching. They added only Desclafani. 

It's not that complicated. 

 

[bean5302]

4 minutes ago, USAFChief said:

And then called it good. Added zero other starters.

 

Falvine set out to add starting pitching. They added only Desclafani. 

It's not that complicated. 

 

Yep. The Twins needed a top end rotation arm, a solid every day OF who could play CF and a big RH bat. They got none of it because Falvey couldn't bring himself to stop chasing all the cheap shiny things like he always does.

[Mike Sixel]

5 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

Yep. The Twins needed a top end rotation arm, a solid every day OF who could play CF and a big RH bat. They got none of it because Falvey couldn't bring himself to stop chasing all the cheap shiny things like he always does.

They were told to cut the budget....which CF was available? Which SP was affordable? Which RH bat did you want (and to replace whom)? Hoskins was about it, imo, of the guys that were potential difference makers.

[bean5302]

Just now, Mike Sixel said:

They were told to cut the budget....which CF was available? Which SP was affordable? Which RH bat did you want (and to replace whom)? Hoskins was about it, imo, of the guys that were potential difference makers.

Affordability has a lot to do with who the Twins trade off the roster. There are always going to be concessions. Vazquez, Polanco, Farmer, Kepler. That's $40MM. How the Twins handle that is up to them.

JDM cost $4.5MM this year, and while I do think it would have cost more to sign him a bit earlier, probably not much.

https://www.twinkietown.com/2023/11/5/23948211/bean5302s-twinkietown-off-season-plan 
That's what I suggested on Twinkietown on Nov 5.
Obviously, Snell decided he was going to get $200MM so he was a non-starter... heh. There were plenty of starters who the Twins could have grabbed in that $25MM AAV range, though. I wanted to rely upon Kirilloff as a potential LFer and acquire Jarren Duran from the Red Sox to provide an every day OF who could cover CF.