Offseason Status Update: Is This It?

[Nick Nelson]

All Twins players have reported to camp, and so spring training is officially underway. As such, we have to ask, are the moves done? Is this the 2024 team in its final form?

It seems like the answer is no, but the countdown to Opening Day is on as the front office continues to slow-play their hand.

Image courtesy of © Jonah Hinebaugh/Naples Daily News/USA Today Network-Florida / USA TODAY NETWORK

As Derek Falvey likes to remind us, the start of spring training does not mark an end point for the offseason. There's no window that expires in mid-February, and team-building efforts can extend all the way up to Opening Day. As major-league camps fire up across the league, with numerous free agents still unsigned and roster holes unfilled, there's no denying the validity of his point. 

Will one of those free agents end up in Minnesota? Could a late-breaking trade still be in the works? Let's catch up on the current state of affairs and then size up the remaining market.

Building Up Bullpen Bulk
Since last we checked in for a status update, the Twins have added two more relievers to their major-league bullpen mix: right-hander Jay Jackson and left-hander Steven Okert. The Twins signed Jackson to a one-year deal with a club option, while Okert was acquired via trade from the Marlins in exchange for Nick Gordon.

The 36-year-old Jackson has followed a fascinating path, with stops in several different MLB organizations as well as Japan. Officially signed on the same day as Carlos Santana, Jackson adds another seasoned veteran to a clubhouse that's been stocking up on them. Okert, 32, also boosts the Twins' experience quotient in the bullpen. He's been a standout lefty reliever for the Marlins over the past three seasons.

As things stand, the Twins have done very little to offset their losses in the rotation, with Anthony DeSclafani the sole addition to Minnesota's starting pitching mix. We'll see if that changes, because indeed the offseason is not over, but it's looking like the Twins may rely more on bulk innings from their deep bullpen this year to protect their starters and keep workloads in check, as opposed to replacing Sonny Gray with another horse at the front of the rotation.

Still Searching for a Right-Handed Outfield Bat
Falvey and the Twins have not been shy in asserting that they continue to pursue at least on more roster addition, hinting that another right-handed outfielder is in their sights. There are still a few options remaining on the free agent market, including a reunion with Michael A. Taylor, who remains unsigned coming off a solid season in Minnesota.

Adam Duvall and Tommy Pham are other names out there, and beyond them, some lesser alternatives like Kiké Hernandez and Adam Engel who might be available on minors deals. Slim pickings unless the Twins can swing a trade, as they did last year to get Taylor. 

There's growing optimism that Byron Buxton will be a factor in center field this year, and Rocco Baldelli shared his intent to get Buxton out there early in Grapefruit League action, but I still find it hard to believe the Twins feel great about their depth behind him, knowing his history. Meanwhile, they currently lack even a token Kyle Garlick-level RH option to supplement their lefty-swinging depth.

Something else has got to be coming, even if not an earth-shattering pickup. How much longer can they wait?

Free Agency: The Boras Five
The five biggest remaining names on the free agent board – Cody Bellinger, Blake Snell, Jordan Montgomery, Matt Chapman, and J.D. Martinez – are all Scott Boras clients. It's not the first time we've seen Boras hold strong with big-name players, even if it means negotiating into the spring. In fact, we saw a very similar scenario result in Carlos Correa's first contract with the Twins.

 

On the surface, there are a number of reasons to think one of these impact players could wind up in Minnesota. There's the aforementioned team/agent history, the club's newly-secured TV revenue, and the fact that you don't have to squint hard to see a fit for any of the five, save Chapman.

This is the kind of spot where Falvey's front office likes to strike with an unexpected big move that shakes up the roster and outlook. Some type of creative short-term deal would make sense given the elements involved. But, I must say, I'm sure not getting the vibe that Minnesota's decision-makers feel they have much of any financial flexibility to work with. There's been enough of a hold-up merely getting something across the finish line with one of these middling RH outfielders.

I'd like to believe a stunner signing or significant trade is still in store, to give this sleepy offseason a late jolt of life. But my faith is waning...

Roster and Payroll Projection: Feb 17th
Little has changed over the past few weeks. Jackson and Okert joining the roster, with big-league deals and no minor-league options, puts them at the front of the line for bullpen spots. That leaves a handful – Josh Staumont, Jorge Alcalá, Kody Funderburk – and others vying for the final job. Right now I've got Staumont as the favorite, but it could well be that the Twins end up going with a length arm who can cover more innings.

Does this roster look complete to you? I say no. At the very least I'd expect another outfielder to come aboard and nudge Trevor Larnach from his bench spot. But with spring training games getting started in one week, it's the group that Baldelli and the Twins are currently ready to bring to battle.

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[Tttaz_Twins]

I have a gut feeling something is going to happen, something fairly surprising. I’m ready to be shocked. 

[JoeCool]

Twins would be legit contenders if they could get both Bellinger and Montgomery on short term deals. It would be nice to see the Pohlad’s go for it at a high annual value short term deal.  I am not holding my breath, but it would be a breath of fresh air to see another front line starter and a good defender/bat like Bellinger. 

[Craig Arko]

Is that all there is

Is that all there is?

If that's all there is my friends

Then let's keep dancing

Let's break out the booze and have a ball

If that's all there is?

[High heat]

I think this is it.  I do t think they are going to spend on a MAT and they are not going to bring in one of the high end free agents remaining. 
 

Maybe they get a deal on Duvall and they bring him in.

 

I’m hoping they are going to use some prospect capital and some $ at the deadline to bring in the playoff starter they need.

[tony&rodney]

There are basically two directions to consider. In both cases I will say that I have zero knowledge to verify any potential actions.

1. The Twins have some financial flexibility and sat on it all offseason to see how things played out and can now make an addition if a player can be brought to terms. Jordan Montgomery has had two solid seasons. Perhaps the Twins agree with many on Twins Daily that he would be a good signing. I am not a fan of Monty. Bellinger had a pretty good year for the Cubs. Can the Twins outbid the Cubs and other teams? Do they want a Correa like deal? If the money is there, Belly helps. Snell has won two CY Awards. He turned down a pile of money from the NYY. Do the Twins gamble there? Hmmm? That is about it for free agents. Odorizzi? 

2. The money squeeze is a real thing. A budget of $125 million would be an absolute ceiling. Bauer? Maybe the financial situation was an issue in making a trade for Burnes too. In the case of money being tight .... the roster is set. 

The Twins had some options in the trade market. The prices for a controlled inexpensive starting pitcher of high value was too much for Falvey to pull the trigger. The Twins chose to trade Polanco for DeSclafani, Topa, Santana (essentially - Falvey's words), and two lottery tickets (A ball players).

A pile of relief pitchers are on the market this year and the Twins picked up a handful. So there we are.

Either one believes there is a significant pile of cash available to make a deal of some sort or the offseason is over because there is only about $1-3 million still left to spend on the 2024 budget.

But ... like i said at the top, I don't know anything.

[jorgenswest]

It would be awesome to get Bellinger to take a Correa like 3 year deal with opt outs but that doesn’t seem even remotely possible.

I think JD Martinez is the next best solution. I think Martinez is the best everyday bat they can get on a one year deal and I am not sure they will risk beyond one. I don’t think it would be wise to add another short side platoon bat. At best that player gets only two at bats against a lefty in a game and there aren’t enough left handed starters. They need a bat that can be counted on from both sides.

Will Buxton need days off from center field? Most certainly. He can DH some of those. Should he be DH when hurting? I would trust Martinez at the plate over Buxton with ailing legs.

Need more money? Find someone to take Farmer and his contract for little return as well as pushing the budget towards 140 with the new tv deal. Helman or Martin might be better bench fits as right handed bats with their additional positional flexibility and speed off the bench. Farmer was 28 before finally getting a real bench shot in the majors. I can see Helman following a similar career path. If Correa is on the IL I would prefer Lee over Farmer. Castro can take the rest days at SS.

It isn’t a great lineup fit and will really limit Santana to at bats against lefties. However after Bellinger, Martinez is the only option that will have a daily impact on the lineup. There isn’t anyone else after Bellinger that brings that ability.

[Brandon]

I would be surprised if the Twins didn't bring back Taylor at this point.  But I think it would be cool if we signed another starting pitcher like Snell or Montgomery to a 1-year deal or in the more likely category Ryu if we are lucky but in reality, I am going to go with the Twins signing Taylor to be the 4th OF and Odorizzi to a minor league deal.  and that will be the end of our offseason.  

[Nashvilletwin]

I wouldn’t be surprised by the FO making a big move before the season begins. I’d love Bellinger or either pitcher, but that just doesn’t seem likely.  

Instead, I get the sense that they are going to keep their powder dry to see how the season develops and then possibly make a defining move before the deadline. For the time being the FO likes the strategy and the team they’ve put together. But they still have some cash in their pocket reserved for a stretch run addition.

[Dman]

With this FO anything can happen but it seems to me they are looking at players willing to take one year deals so I see them waiting things out to see who is left that will sign a one year deal.  We'll see how it all shakes out but they seem to like to wait the market out and hope something decent falls in their lap for a bargain price.

They also have made late trades so that is a possibility as well.  I get the feeling they are not done.

[Reptevia]

A Taylor reunion and an another well past his prime starter I suspect.   Ryu, odo or Syndrgaard?

[CRF]

The chances of them signing Bellinger, Snell, or Monty, are between slim and none...and slim took the last bus outta town a loooooong time ago. Bringing back MAT, and/or signing Ryu, Thor or Odo, is right up this FO's alley. That's more their speed. I really hope they do a hard pass on Odo or Thor. Maybe take a chance on Ryu. Getting MAT back would be a decent move too. 

[Heymel]

Hopefully they’re planning on adding CF depth. Stopped by and watched workouts today, I’ll just say I wouldn’t count on Buxton.  On the plus side, watching Yunior Severino take BP in the cages, it sounds different from the others as the ball comes off his bat.  It was interesting to watch the pitch framing drills as well as BP’s of Lopez, Jax, Duran, and Stewart.

[stringer bell]

I've said for a while that if they bring in a position player, he has to be a starter, getting over 500 at-bats if healthy all year. If they are bringing in a platoon left fielder or Buxton backup neither is a full-time role. Maybe bringing back MAT might be okay because he'd combine those two roles and depending on Buxton's health, might get as much run as he had last year.

I don't get too worked up on how a player is productive--with Taylor it was defense and power plus base running--but the needs of this team going forward would include making contact and getting on base and Taylor was poor at those things last year. 

[bjorks]

I may have missed this, but it's funny to see our most grossly underpaid position player (Lewis) and our highest paid "5th" (DeSclafani).  

[Fatbat]

This is it. The Polads wont seriously invest in a one year run at a WS championship. They want a moneyball mid/long run open window of just reaching the playoffs and “lets see what happens.”.  
$60M buys us out of this for 1 yr.

pay Monty or Snell $30M with a mutual option for the next 3 years or some quirky $5M buyout. Silly details.

pay Bellinger $30M as a one year hired gun. Give him a bus ticket to Chicago in November. 

[Doctor Wu]

At this point I have no idea what the front office will or won't do. Sure, still a month to go before the season starts, and they have made late trades/moves in the somewhat distant past (getting Dan Gladden) and the recent past (the Paddack-Pagan trade), so obviously there could be another big trade or not-so-big free agent signing. Surprise me!

[Twinsrtheworst]

Sighting of Buck and Correa taking lots of BP here in Fort Myers.  

[Otaknam]

Bellinger in an already lefty heavy lineup doesn’t make sense, although he’s a real good player, and he would want a hefty contract, even for one year. Bringing back Taylor is more likely IMO. Either Montgomery or Snell would be a big boost to the rotation. But right now it looks like the FO is planning to shuttle relievers from St. Paul to eat up innings because of expected short starts. 

[miracleb]

9 minutes ago, Otaknam said:

Bellinger in an already lefty heavy lineup doesn’t make sense, although he’s a real good player, and he would want a hefty contract, even for one year. Bringing back Taylor is more likely IMO. Either Montgomery or Snell would be a big boost to the rotation. But right now it looks like the FO is planning to shuttle relievers from St. Paul to eat up innings because of expected short starts. 

Agree here.  Montgomery and then I don't care what they do!  Agree here.  Bellinger is not an option for so many reasons ($$$$) and left handed bat.

[JD-TWINS]

If they think Buxton can play CF even 40 games……then Castro 80 games & Martin or Kiersy fill in as needed. Can’t afford risk nor $$$ nor duplication Bellinger brings in CF.

Snell’s contract view is nuts and he’s really good every 3rd year. Way too many years & way too many $$.

Chapman is of no interest.

Martinez can only hit - valuable, but Buxton looms as probable DH half the games. Again, duplication.

To me Montgomery is the only one that makes any sense. If he respects our offensive potential than he may sign because everyone ones to win. Escalating contract over 5 years paying $130M. If that’s too steep than we shouldn’t be discussing the possibilities here.

[Paul Walerius]

17 hours ago, JoeCool said:

Twins would be legit contenders if they could get both Bellinger and Montgomery on short term deals. It would be nice to see the Pohlad’s go for it at a high annual value short term deal.  I am not holding my breath, but it would be a breath of fresh air to see another front line starter and a good defender/bat like Bellinger. 

That would be nice however as a FA do they want a short term deal?  Bellinger (28) maybe more likely than Montgomery (31) but I don't know.  

[Jeff K]

13 hours ago, CRF said:

The chances of them signing Bellinger, Snell, or Monty, are between slim and none...and slim took the last bus outta town a loooooong time ago. Bringing back MAT, and/or signing Ryu, Thor or Odo, is right up this FO's alley. That's more their speed. I really hope they do a hard pass on Odo or Thor. Maybe take a chance on Ryu. Getting MAT back would be a decent move too. 

I could actually see the Twins signing Montgomery to a one year deal.  They might need to make a subsequent deal to create space with their self imposed salary cap.  Bellinger has been so inconsistent that I wouldn't go near him.

[Major League Ready]

Montgomery or Bellinger would not sign a 1 year deal.  It would be a 3 year deal like Correa signed.  If Bellinger performs like he did in 2021-2022 he is not going anywhere.  We would have $121M in our top 6 paid players in 2025.  Obviously, the same is true of Montgomery if he gets hurt.  Might even be true if he has a mediocre year.

[specialiststeve]

Only guy I would touch is also Montgomery. Zero shot for us to do a 5 year deal. 3 years at 25 mil... done deal. Fits well. 

Some of the "big boys" might go a bunch bigger but for a 3 or 4 that should be about the market. In reality that is what he is. 

 

[JD-TWINS]

2 hours ago, Paul Walerius said:

That would be nice however as a FA do they want a short term deal?  Bellinger (28) maybe more likely than Montgomery (31) but I don't know.  

NO they do not and will not!

[stringer bell]

Of the three FAs being discussed here, Montgomery is by far the most consistent. If the Twins somehow see fit to add a big ticket guy, he is who I would want them to sign. Bellinger was DFA'd a couple years ago and Snell has been hugely inconsistent. For the kind of money, those guys are seeking, no thanks. 

[Mike Sixel]

1 hour ago, stringer bell said:

Of the three FAs being discussed here, Montgomery is by far the most consistent. If the Twins somehow see fit to add a big ticket guy, he is who I would want them to sign. Bellinger was DFA'd a couple years ago and Snell has been hugely inconsistent. For the kind of money, those guys are seeking, no thanks. 

This. I have zero interest in signing another mediocre veteran to block young guys. They have plenty of those, and the back of the bench should be guys with options. It's one reason Gordon is gone, and now people want to sign an older, more expensive, guy without options?

[Blyleven2011]

14 hours ago, Fatbat said:

This is it. The Polads wont seriously invest in a one year run at a WS championship. They want a moneyball mid/long run open window of just reaching the playoffs and “lets see what happens.”.  
$60M buys us out of this for 1 yr.

pay Monty or Snell $30M with a mutual option for the next 3 years or some quirky $5M buyout. Silly details.

pay Bellinger $30M as a one year hired gun. Give him a bus ticket to Chicago in November. 

I wish you were the owner and shell out the money   ...

but I'll go one better and the The twins could buy hired gun Snell  , Monty and belli ,,, cost 90 million  for the year and still  be under the salary tax cap for 2024 and ĝo for a run at the title  , 30 million each for 1 year deals for the pohlads to just to go for it , it isn't the Twins way to over spend in free agency  and I don't think signing all 3 would win us a world series  )...

I really don't like any of these three , but Montgomery  would be my pick if I had to pick , the free agent class wasn't especially strong this year and definitely are not worth the money they are seeking  ... 

I'll just go with our youth and prospects ...

We should make the playoffs again this year but again might fail to go beyond the ALDS  , but anything can happen  ...

The twins roster just doesn't feel complete yet but after spring training  I might feel differently  ...

 

[Heistyman]

Give me Bauer on a prove it deal.